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Saints / Reading / West Ham run in: Games to go . . .

.comsaint

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S-Clarke

S-Clarke

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At this point of the season NO games are easy for anyone. Teams who have 'nothing' to play for don't exist. There will always be players playing for contracts, managers managing for contracts and pressure on teams who need to win and worse on teams who are 'expected' to win...

 

I wouldn't fancy any of those run-ins personally!

 

This time of the season is all about patience and mental fortitude.

 

Absolutely, there are no 'given' results at this stage of the year and this time of the year often springs up the most bizarre results, so we need to keep our guard (which I'm sure we will because we've been consistent all year). Do not expect WHU or Reading to win all of their remaining games, and the same goes for us. Lots of twists and turns and unexpected things will happen. It's exciting though isn't it?

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Legod Third Coming

Legod Third Coming

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Absolutely, there are no 'given' results at this stage of the year and this time of the year often springs up the most bizarre results, so we need to keep our guard (which I'm sure we will because we've been consistent all year). Do not expect WHU or Reading to win all of their remaining games, and the same goes for us. Lots of twists and turns and unexpected things will happen. It's exciting though isn't it?

 

It is yes. Today has dragged sooooo long because I cannot wait until 3pm tomorrow!!! Although I apologise to EVERYONE. It is the bridge 100 yards from my front door which is being replaced this weekend which means no trains. Which means I have to drive to Palarse! :(

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Lord Duckhunter

Lord Duckhunter

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at the start of the season i thought we would finish about 10th . As a mid table team i would have marked down wins at palace & pboro and a home win against cov . Those are 3 we must win , couple that with 1 point from reading or middlesboro will mean west ham have to win all 5 . Although every game is tough at this stage of the season , our next 2 away are certainly amongst the easiest , in fact barnsley aside we could not have hand picked them better .

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Legod Third Coming

Legod Third Coming

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at the start of the season i thought we would finish about 10th . As a mid table team i would have marked down wins at palace & pboro and a home win against cov . Those are 3 we must win , couple that with 1 point from reading or middlesboro will mean west ham have to win all 5 . Although every game is tough at this stage of the season , our next 2 away are certainly amongst the easiest , in fact barnsley aside we could not have hand picked them better .

 

Not sure about that. P'boro managed to beat Reading and will always score goals!

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obelisk

obelisk

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Posted (edited)

Ok then. Let me have a go at some realistic predictions.

 

SOUTHAMPTON : Crystal Palace (A) - 3 points ; Reading (H) - 1 point ; Peterborough (A) - 3 points; Middlesboro (A) - 0 points ; Coventry (H) - 1 point. [79 + 8] = 87.

 

READING : Brighton (A) - 0 points; Southampton (A) - 1 point ; Nottm Forest (H) - 1 point ; Crystal Palace (H) - 3 points ; Birmingham (A) - 0 points. [79 + 5] = 84.

 

WEST HAM UNITED : Birmingham (H) - 1 point; Brighton (H) - 3 points ; Bristol City (A) - 1 point ; Leicester (A) - 0 points; Hull City (H) - 3 points. [75 + 8] = 83.

 

And I'm a pessimist as well! :)

Edited by obelisk
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Red Alert

Red Alert

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Posted
Ok then. Let me have a go at some realistic predictions.

 

SOUTHAMPTON : Crystal Palace (A) - 1 point ; Reading (H) - 1 point ; Peterborough (A) - 3 points; Middlesboro (A) - 0 points ; Coventry (H) - 1 point. [79 + 6] = 85.

 

READING : Brighton (A) - 0 points; Southampton (A) - 1 point ; Nottm Forest (H) - 1 point ; Crystal Palace (H) - 3 points ; Birmingham (A) - 0 points. [79 + 5] = 84.

 

WEST HAM UNITED : Birmingham (H) - 1 point; Brighton (H) - 3 points ; Bristol City (A) - 1 point ; Leicester (A) - 0 points; Hull City (H) - 3 points. [75 + 8] = 83.

 

And I'm a pessimist as well! :)

 

No way in the world will Reading only get 5 points from the remaining games. The other two look alright though, big big day for us we win and West Ham lose and I can't see anything other than automatic. Though I think Reading will finish too strong for us and we are looking at second place. Not that I would complain about that.

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obelisk

obelisk

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No way in the world will Reading only get 5 points from the remaining games.
You're probably right and maybe I marked them down a bit because I'm surrounded by smug Reading fans up here in Berkshire. However I don't go along with this Reading are world beaters stuff. Sure they've had a great run but plenty of luck has followed them along the way and maybe they're due a "blip". They struggled against a 10 man Leeds side that were looking for a punch up and could have easily found themselves behind in that game. This just might be a good week to play them and take on the role of underdog.
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Cheam Saint

Cheam Saint

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It's very unlikely that West Ham will win all 5 games. Even if the they win 4 and draw 1, with our goal difference we probably only need 9 points.

 

3 wins or 2 wins and 3 draws.

 

If we can't do this we don't deserve to go up. Have faith everyone!

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Leicestersaint

Leicestersaint

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I have said for months we will need 87 points to go up - it is starting to look as though we could go up on less as WHU seem determined to avoid automatic promotion - i see they now have Brighton at their place after they have drawn with Reading tomorrow. I do now think we can do this as champions.

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Thedelldays

Thedelldays

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I have said for months we will need 87 points to go up - it is starting to look as though we could go up on less as WHU seem determined to avoid automatic promotion - i see they now have Brighton at their place after they have drawn with Reading tomorrow. I do now think we can do this as champions.

west ham have to go to leicester too...who are now within touching distance of the playoffs

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Under Weststand

Under Weststand

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It would take a monumental cock up to throw it away now. West Hoof can not afford a single slip up.

I cannot see them wining all four games, so one more draw by them leaves us needing 1 win & 1 draw for automatic promotion.

I can see 2 wins & 2 draws, 90 pts should be enough for the title IMHO.

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chestersaint

chestersaint

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Saints v Palace (doubtful they are seriously playing for anything play-offs/relagation - 3pts), Reading (6 pointer either way - 0, 1 or 3?), Peterborough (as per Palace probably - 3pts), 'Boro (Tricky as should still be in hunt for play-offs - 1 pt), Coventry (in all probability will already be down - 3 pts). Total 10, 11 or 13 pts.

 

Reading v Brighton (chasing play-off place - 1 pt), Saints (6 pointer either way - 0, 1 or 3?), Forest (in a bit of form and should be clear of relegation by then 3 pts), Palace (doubtful they are seriously playing for anything play-offs/relagation - 3pts), Brum (should be vying for decent positioning in play-offs 0 pts).. Total 7, 8 or 10 pts.

 

West Ham v Brum (should be vying for decent positioning in play-offs - 1 pt), Brighton (chasing play-off place - 3 pts), Bristol City (fighting for survival and tricky on their day - 1 or 3 pts), Leicester (good side that could well be in play-off contention by then - 0 or 1 pt), Hull (will probably be out of the play-off picture by then - 3 pts). Total 8, 9 or 12 pts.

 

Going off the maximum points given in each example, I think the we will finish on 92, Reading on 89 and West Ham on 87. Yes I know Saints and Reading cannot both get 3 points next Friday but you get my drift. We can all relax now.

 

So far it is going exactly to plan. A draw tomorrow for Reading and you will be calling me mysticchestersaint. As I have said, relax.

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The9

The9

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So if we beat Reading, and West Ham lose to Brighton, we could actually be promoted by Saturday night ?

 

Not mathematically, as there would still be the chance of them overturning a 13+ goal difference swing (which would be possible if still a little unlikely if we lost 3 and they won 3).

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The9

The9

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Well spotted Alps

 

Though not actually true. It would be the same as the Plymouth match, we'd be up all but mathematically, with goal difference being the maths issue.

 

However, bearing in mind that our GD would have to be a minimum of 13 goals better if those results happened, West Ham would have to overturn that 13 goal deficit in just 3 matches. That's averaging 3 two goal defeats for us and 3 two goal wins for them, and even then they're still only level with us on GD ! If they stuck 6 on someone they'd still need a 2 goal difference in their favour in one of the other 5 matches.

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Deano6

Deano6

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At this point of the season NO games are easy for anyone. Teams who have 'nothing' to play for don't exist. There will always be players playing for contracts, managers managing for contracts and pressure on teams who need to win and worse on teams who are 'expected' to win...

 

I wouldn't fancy any of those run-ins personally!

 

This time of the season is all about patience and mental fortitude.

 

Well this myth was put to bed today. Lower midtable water-treaders are exactly who you want to be playing at this stage in a season. Bodes well that Peterborough also fall in that bracket.

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Lighthouse

Lighthouse

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Just going over the possibilities... Even if West Ham suddenly turn into Barcelona, we only have to beat a very disinterested Posh team and a very crap Coventry side. I've been watching Saints long enough that those games are far from a fore-gone conclusion, but f**k me we're close.

 

If it were to come down to the last game, we should hope Coventry are AT LEAST 2 points behind Bristol City. That way they would either a) need a win, have to come and attack and leave them exposed at the back or b) already be relegated and probably demoralised.

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The9

The9

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Well this myth was put to bed today. Lower midtable water-treaders are exactly who you want to be playing at this stage in a season. Bodes well that Peterborough also fall in that bracket.

 

Ferguson's interview on Sky earlier seemed to indicate he has basically given up for the season, he was sighing, shrugging and doleful all over the place.

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The9

The9

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Just going over the possibilities... Even if West Ham suddenly turn into Barcelona, we only have to beat a very disinterested Posh team and a very crap Coventry side. I've been watching Saints long enough that those games are far from a fore-gone conclusion, but f**k me we're close.

 

If it were to come down to the last game, we should hope Coventry are AT LEAST 2 points behind Bristol City. That way they would either a) need a win, have to come and attack and leave them exposed at the back or b) already be relegated and probably demoralised.

 

Coventry have been doing pretty well recently, albeit mostly at home. Still, unless they're playing to stay up, we should be able to deal with them.

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S-Clarke

S-Clarke

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Coventry have been doing pretty well recently, albeit mostly at home. Still, unless they're playing to stay up, we should be able to deal with them.

 

I still don't think they've won an away game all season though, may be wrong. Set's it up nicely for the final day etc ;)

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Wilf

Wilf

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Ferguson's interview on Sky earlier seemed to indicate he has basically given up for the season, he was sighing, shrugging and doleful all over the place.

 

Means nothing....

 

He's always like that !

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Lighthouse

Lighthouse

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Posted
They beat Hull 2-0 last month

 

They beat Hull away all of 10 days ago. Admittedly that was the first one.

 

But Hull seem to have given up on the playoffs and gone on holiday. 5 straight defeats before they beat Boro today including defeats to Pompey and Millwall. 1 win in 12 before today, they were pretty much bottom of the form table.

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The9

The9

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But Hull seem to have given up on the playoffs and gone on holiday. 5 straight defeats before they beat Boro today including defeats to Pompey and Millwall. 1 win in 12 before today, they were pretty much bottom of the form table.

 

Hull have had a lot of injuries, mainly at the back, which has disrupted their ability to defend - they weren't leaking many when they were fixed with Mannone, Dawson, Chester, Hobbs, Rosenior. They also lost Koren for a month and he takes most of their set pieces. Koren was back today, though they're still having to play Liam Cooper who has 6 Championship appearances, ever.

 

Besides, the point was that Coventry hadn't won away all season. They have, on 31 March against Hull. Whether Hull have gone on holiday or got injuries doesn't matter, they still lost at home to Coventry.

Edited by The9
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Saint Without a Halo

Saint Without a Halo

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But so are boro' date=' and coventry may still be fighting for their lives, so I dont think it will be plain sailing. We wnat it bad enoug, play to our potential we will win the league... simple[/quote']

 

Palace had by far the best home record of the teams we have still to meet with only 3 defeats all season before we beat them Middlesborough on the other hand are pants at home and their form has recently imploded. Peterborough's home form is not much to shout about either so both are winnable!

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Lighthouse

Lighthouse

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Hull have had a lot of injuries, mainly at the back, which has disrupted their ability to defend - they weren't leaking many when they were fixed with Mannone, Dawson, Chester, Hobbs, Rosenior. They also lost Koren for a month and he takes most of their set pieces. Koren was back today, though they're still having to play Liam Cooper who has 6 Championship appearances, ever.

 

Besides, the point was that Coventry hadn't won away all season. They have, on 31 March against Hull. Whether Hull have gone on holiday or got injuries doesn't matter, they still lost at home to Coventry.

 

I'm not debating any of that, I'm just saying Hull have been crap recently and I'd expect Coventry to lose that fixture 9 times out of 10.

 

It's a bit like when we won at Boro in the relegation season. It was very much a one off when he happened to turn up and they didn't.

 

This is all pretty trivial. It all comes down to Coventry being crap, especially away from home. We SHOULD beat them.

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SaintBobby

SaintBobby

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Amazing how thoughts and moods can change.

 

I couldn't bear to get involved in the post-skate analysis, that last gasp equaliser was just too horrid.

 

But for all the doubters, the bookies odds are now as follows:

 

Saints are a general 1/20 to be promoted (by any means - including play-offs) and a general 4/7 to win the Championship.

 

So, if you think we ain't going to go up (or just wish to hedge), you can make 20 times your stake within a month. A £100 bet makes you £2,000 if we don't go up.

 

If you think Reading are likely to win the title, you can get them at a general 6/4. A £100 bet makes you a £150 profit.

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westofshannonsaint

westofshannonsaint

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SAINTS - Position: 1 :) - form table: 2 - with 4 games left we couldn't have expected any better :) :) :)

Reading (H) - Position 2 - form table - 1 - a real 6 pointer.

P.borough (A) - Position 17 - form table - 18 - only 9 pts off the drop zone but little to play for except pride.

M.borough (A) - Position 8 - form table - 19 - falling away from the play off spots, lets hope their form continues.

Coventry (H) - Position 22 - form table - 11 - I'm hoping that the result doesn't matter to either team

 

We need is 6 points from these 4 games (if W.Ham go on win their remaining 4 games).

Control the Controllables. Less than 2ppg. In Addkins I trust.

 

READING - Position 2 - form table - 1 - a better GD than us over the last 6.

Brighton (A) - Position 7 - form table - 14 - fighting for the playoff's, lets hope their form improves.

Southampton (A) - Position 1 - form table - 2 - WE ARE SOUTHAMPTON WERE TOP OF THE LEAGUE.

Nottm Forest (H) - Position 19 - form table - 3 - Great form & only 7 points from the drop zone.

Crystal Palace (H) - Position 16 - form table - 20 - nothing to play for.

Birmingham (A) - Position 4 - form table - 6 - should be preparing/fighting for the playoffs.

 

Toughest run in IMHO, if they better our points average over the final 5 games, they deserve to be champions (well obviously as the table doesn't lie)

 

WEST HAM UNITED - Position 3 - form table - 10 - Really look like they are trying to avoid promotion

Brighton (H) - Position 7 - form table - 14 - Brighton could really do us a favour if they win their next 2 games

Bristol City (A) - Position 21 - form table - 12 - fighting for their lives/4 points from safety

Leicester (A) - Position 9 - form table - 5 - might be fighting for the playoffs/might want to avoid W.Ham next year.

Hull City (H) - Position 10 - form table - 23 - the definition of nothing to play for.

 

4 points behind us, haven't walked the league & the fans aren't happy. W.Ham are under pressure and not handling it well, I don't think they are going to be promoted..............which means I think we will :), although i'm still not comfortable saying it out loud.

 

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2011-2012/table

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