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trousers

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badgerx16

badgerx16

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Maybe austerity isn't the solution, looks like somebody may have make a mistake in their spreadsheet :

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22197958

 

"Doubts have been cast on research that has been crucial in supporting governments' austerity programmes........

Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff's paper Growth in a time of debt looked at 20 advanced economies since 1945 and found that GDP growth had been between 3% and 4% when debt had been below 90% of GDP, but that the average had collapsed to -0.1% when debt had risen above 90%.

The new research says that growth only falls to an average of 2.2% when debt passes 90%."

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-22213219

 

"...two Harvard economists admitted a faulty spreadsheet calculation caused errors in a study used by numerous politicians to support their austerity policies,"

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bridge too far

bridge too far

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But shadow treasury minister Chris Leslie said: "At this rate of deficit reduction, at less than a quarter of 1% a year, it would take 400 years to balance the books.

"Now remember," he added, referring to the government's earlier target, "George Osborne promised and David Cameron promised that they'd balance the books, totally - no more deficit - in two years' time by 2015. You can't be more catastrophically off course than that."

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22261070

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trousers

trousers

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http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/weak-gdp-figures-suggest-something-really-bad-may-have-happened-a-few-years-ago-2013042566725

 

THE latest set of GDP figures indicate the UK economy may have suffered some sort of cataclysmic event about five years ago.

Experts said the 0.3% growth in the first quarter was much lower than would be expected, unless something important had happened, such as an effective collapse of the global banking system.

Julian Cook, chief economist at Donnelly-McPartlin, said: “It’s absolutely fascinating. I suspect that if we delved into the ancient records, perhaps looked at some old copies of the Daily Sketch, there may be some mention somewhere of a huge financial disaster.

“It may not be obvious at first. You’d be looking out for key words and phrases like ‘meltdown’ or ‘trillion dollar bank bail-out’. Anything along those lines would be the first clue that some sort of catastrophe had taken place.”

But Labour’s shadow chancellor Ed Balls said he has spoken to four people who were alive in early 2008 and none of them are aware of anything bad happening.

He added: “I asked Alistair Darling if he knew anything about a ‘catastrophe’ and he said his time as chancellor was very straightforward and he spent a lot of time just ‘people watching’ from a first floor window.

“Therefore the only reason growth is so weak is because of things that have happened since 2010. I was alive in 2010 and I remember all of those things very clearly.”

A Treasury spokesman said: “If there was some massive, mind-buggering disaster, then our current stagnation would suggest the economy of 2008 may have been over-reliant on financial services and consumer debt.

“Unfortunately, because of the complete absence of historical records we have no idea how long it takes to recover from a huge financial crisis. Which means it is perfectly reasonable for people to expect everything to be fixed really quickly.”

 

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badgerx16

badgerx16

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I can hear the collective clunk of axe grinders and flutter of bunting being put back it the cupboards of disappointed Tory haters across the land as we speak...

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22290407

 

"Construction activity fell 2.5% in the first quarter and remains more than 18% lower than it was before the start of the financial crisis in 2008"

 

Manufacturing also fell.

 

And lets be honest, how 'big' is 0.3 of a percentage point ?

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trousers

trousers

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"Construction activity fell 2.5% in the first quarter and remains more than 18% lower than it was before the start of the financial crisis in 2008"

 

Manufacturing also fell.

 

And lets be honest, how 'big' is 0.3 of a percentage point ?

 

If it was a negative 0.3 of a percentage point you can be sure the opposition would have been making just as big a deal about such a small figure....

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Whitey Grandad

Whitey Grandad

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"Construction activity fell 2.5% in the first quarter and remains more than 18% lower than it was before the start of the financial crisis in 2008"

 

Manufacturing also fell.

 

And lets be honest, how 'big' is 0.3 of a percentage point ?

 

On its own, not very significant and well within the error of measurement. It's the longer tem trend that's more important.

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buctootim

buctootim

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Peter Hitchens was on TV the other day saying much the same. He said we are witnessing national decline rather than a down period in the economic cycle.

 

We probably are in a relative decline - ie the gap between our income and other nations is narrowing - we are being caught up. Absolute decline i dont think so.

 

The Chinese manufacturing boom was built on cheap labour and artificially cheap and easy accessible capital, driven by government policies to grab market share. What I hear a lot from friends who know about this stuff (i dont) is that the Chinese government have miscalculated. Yes they have captured the market, but their labour costs are rising rapidly, a lot of manufacturers arent making money, defaults on loans are going through the roof, the cost of transport to Europe is becoming a higher % of the price obtained, and attempts to raise prices are just resulting in buyers sourcing from elsewhere. Some manufacturing and services are even starting to return to the UK.

 

Im not that pessimistic. Yes we wont necessarily be kings of the hill anymore and can only look forward to very modest growth for a decade or two, but thats not the same as falling living standards.

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Dr. Kucho

Dr. Kucho

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Well according to Ed Milliband the problems are so deep no one can fix them.

 

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4908260/Ed-Miliband-gaffe-during-Radio-4-interview.html

 

And in this interview with Radio 4 he makes his plans errr clearer...

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2316998/Ed-Miliband-finally-admits-Labour-WOULD-borrow-billions-more.html

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buctootim

buctootim

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Well according to Ed Milliband the problems are so deep no one can fix them.

 

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4908260/Ed-Miliband-gaffe-during-Radio-4-interview.html

 

And in this interview with Radio 4 he makes his plans errr clearer...

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2316998/Ed-Miliband-finally-admits-Labour-WOULD-borrow-billions-more.html

 

 

Im starting to loathe those papers which are just interested in misrepresentation and slapstick politics. Labour are saying spending a bit more now (an extra £12bn on a current deficit of £120bn) will lead to growth and higher tax receipts and therefore a lower deficit in the medium / long term. The Tories are saying cut now so that when the upturn eventually comes the recovery will be stronger. You pays yer money and makes yer choice. Everything else is just paper spin.

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trousers

trousers

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22394079

 

The chairman of Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), Sir Philip Hampton, has said the bank will be ready to return to the private sector next year.

 

His comments came as RBS reported a return to profit for the first three months of the year.

It made a pre-tax profit of £826m after racking up losses last year.

RBS lost £1.5bn in the first quarter of 2012 and lost £2.2bn in the final three months of last year.

 

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trousers

trousers

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@ToryTreasury: Q1 2013 growth: France -0.2%, Germany +0.1%, UK +0.3%

 

@Peston: Confidence of big British businesses improves. String of company results in assorted sectors showing (modest) expectations met or bettered

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Verbal

Verbal

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@BBCHughPym: Stock market euphoria continues - FTSE100 ends above 6,800 - 13 year high - Wall Street again hitting new all time highs tonight

 

You should pay more attention to Robert Reich (among many others) on this. Inflated asset prices, which benefit only a tiny proportion of the population, is the recipe for another disastrous bubble, not recovery. Much of what's stoking the stock market revival is share buy-backs by companies, financed by cheap credit - a classic bubble generator. At the same time, real (inflation-adjusted) wages in the US and especially in the UK continue an unstopable-seeming downward spiral, which will continue to depress the real underlying economy outside of the gilded palaces of the Square Mile and Wall Street.

 

So basically while the stock-owning rich get even richer from the consequences of the flatlined economy (notably near-zero interest rates), the less well-off continue to see the value of their pay packets steadily eroded and credit restrictions imposed on them getting ever tougher - even when there are momentary upturns.

 

These are the green shoots you see after a forest fire.

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  • 2 weeks later...
trousers

trousers

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10097443/British-retail-bounces-back-in-May.html

 

The total value of retail sales rose by an annual 3.4pc in May after dropping by 0.6pc in April, when year-on-year comparisons were distorted by the timing of Easter, according to latest figures from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and KPMG.

 

May's growth was well above the three-month average of 2.3pc and the 12-month moving average of 2.5pc.Like-for-like sales, which strip out changes in stores' floorspace, grew by a faster-than-expected 1.8pc after dropping 2.2pc in April, led by stronger trade in furniture and flooring. Online sales, which were 11pc higher than May last year, were also a major driver.

"Retailers pulled off a good result in May despite contending with topsy-turvy temperatures and continued economic difficulties," said Helen Dickinson, director general of the British Retail Consortium.

David McCorquodale, KPMG's head of retail, said: "While sales didn't soar through the roof, this is still a very creditable performance from UK retailers.

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trousers

trousers

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germany-gdp-growth.png?s=grgdppgq

 

united-kingdom-gdp-growth.png?s=ukgrybzq

 

 

UK growth 2nd quarter 2009 (end of recession) - May 2013 3.6%. German growth same period 8.2%. We really whupped those boys.

 

Did we both start from the same levels of debt...? Wading in treacle versus rollerskating on tarmac = headstart

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buctootim

buctootim

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Did we both start from the same levels of debt...? Wading in treacle versus rollerskating on tarmac = headstart

 

So implicitly you are agreeing with me that Andrew Neill is wrong and also accepting that the austerity measures have reduced growth.... Arguably we would have grown more, perhaps 5% more like Germany, without austerity and that would have done more to eliminate the deficit.

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Lord Duckhunter

Lord Duckhunter

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Arguably we would have grown more, perhaps 5% more like Germany, without austerity and that would have done more to eliminate the deficit.

 

Talking of Europe and austerity.

 

I thought the French approach was going to be the way forward, I remember Labour MP's queuing up to praise Hollande. Red Ed praised Hollande for his "determination to help create a Europe of growth and jobs, in a way that is responsible and sustainable". Before adding "This new leadership is sorely needed as Europe seeks to escape from austerity". And "the French president is a shining example of the centre-left showing leadership and hope in Europe".

 

How did that work out ?

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buctootim

buctootim

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Posted (edited)

 

The amount of spending on commercial and civil engineering projects continued to fall, according to the survey, although in both cases the decline slowed from April. Despite the promising figure for the sector overall, Markit chief economist Tim Moore sounded a note of caution. "The latest figures suggest that the sector is worryingly reliant on residential building work for thrust," he said.

 

The construction sector has been an area of weakness in the UK economy. Construction activity fell 2.5% in the first quarter of 2013, amid overall growth estimates of 0.3% and it still remains more than 18% lower than it was before the start of the financial crisis in 2008.

 

 

Don't forget folks, these are the economic highlights Johnny has picked out for us.

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buctootim

buctootim

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Talking of Europe and austerity.

 

I thought the French approach was going to be the way forward, I remember Labour MP's queuing up to praise Hollande. Red Ed praised Hollande for his "determination to help create a Europe of growth and jobs, in a way that is responsible and sustainable". Before adding "This new leadership is sorely needed as Europe seeks to escape from austerity". And "the French president is a shining example of the centre-left showing leadership and hope in Europe".

 

How did that work out ?

 

Milliband quite rightly blew some smoke up Hollande's hind quarters when he was elected in order to be able to exert influence later. A much more successful strategy than Cameron's, excoriated here in the Daily Mail.....:

 

The ousting of Nicolas Sarkozy last night was a humiliating diplomatic setback for David Cameron – who months ago publicly backed his re-election. British diplomats will race to forge links with the new French President Francois Hollande, whom the Prime Minister has ostentatiously snubbed, to shore up recent agreements on defence and nuclear power. The Prime Minister risked all by backing Mr Sarkozy’s re-election at a Brussels press conference in February. He then refused to see Mr Hollande on a recent trip to London, leaving him to meet Labour leader Ed Miliband instead. And he compounded the error by telling a French newspaper that he wholeheartedly backed Mr Sarkozy’s bid to return to power.

 

As Mr Sarkozy’s prospects sank, the new ambassador in Paris – the pathologically cautious former national security adviser Sir Peter Ricketts – was unable to persuade the Prime Minister to change tack. Mr Cameron backed Mr Sarkozy's re-election at a Brussels press conference in February - but then refused to meet with Francois Hollande in London

 

Officials in Whitehall last night accused Mr Cameron of ‘putting all his eggs in one basket’ by throwing his political weight behind Mr Sarkozy – even when polls suggested he was likely to lose.

And they warned that Britain might pay a heavy price for the snub since the UK is heavily dependent on the new French leader for economic recovery, national defence and the future of the UK nuclear power industry.

 

‘We put all the chips on one card and it turned out not to be the ace,’ one rueful source said. ‘It was an error of judgment and not what was advised. There are perfectly good protocol reasons why you don’t see foreign opposition leaders before they have been elected. But to go quite so far in backing Sarkozy was a mistake. The Prime Minister has a habit of shooting from the hip.’

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2140539/France-elections-2012-Will-David-Cameron-pay-Francois-Hollande-snub.html

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badgerx16

badgerx16

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Citizens of country clawing its way out of massive debt hole in less well off shocker...

 

Yep, we're all in it together

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/jun/04/home-retail-group-terry-duddy-pay-rise

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/mar/27/centrica-16m-gas-price-rise

 

http://www.ucu.org.uk/index.cfm?articleid=6568

 

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/economics/article3775830.ece

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Johnny Bognor

Johnny Bognor

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The amount of spending on commercial and civil engineering projects continued to fall, according to the survey, although in both cases the decline slowed from April. Despite the promising figure for the sector overall, Markit chief economist Tim Moore sounded a note of caution. "The latest figures suggest that the sector is worryingly reliant on residential building work for thrust," he said.

 

The construction sector has been an area of weakness in the UK economy. Construction activity fell 2.5% in the first quarter of 2013, amid overall growth estimates of 0.3% and it still remains more than 18% lower than it was before the start of the financial crisis in 2008.

 

 

Don't forget folks, these are the economic highlights Johnny has picked out for us.

 

Let me help you out here. By definition, a "return to growth" usually follows a period of contraction. If it didn't, then it wouldn't be a "return". At the end of the day, it is better news than a continuing contraction, is it not? Especially as this sector was one of the hardest hit.

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Johnny Bognor

Johnny Bognor

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[h=1]UK services sector in fastest growth since March 2012[/h] The UK's services sector, which accounts for around 75% of the economy, grew at its fastest rate since March 2012, new data suggests. The Markit/CIPS Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the UK rose to 54.9 in May from 52.9 in April.

Any reading above 50 indicates growth in the sector, and Markit said the UK economy had "all cylinders now firing".

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22781216

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solentstars

solentstars

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UK services sector in fastest growth since March 2012

 

The UK's services sector, which accounts for around 75% of the economy, grew at its fastest rate since March 2012, new data suggests. The Markit/CIPS Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the UK rose to 54.9 in May from 52.9 in April.

Any reading above 50 indicates growth in the sector, and Markit said the UK economy had "all cylinders now firing".

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22781216

wow thats great the likes of McDonalds taking on more staff etc is really going to help get our deficit down rather than making real value added products to sell abroad;)
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