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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21082110

 

House sales in the UK rose by 5% last year, according to figures from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC).The number of completed sales was 932,000, up from 885,000 the previous year, and the highest since 2007.

The revival has been partly due to the Bank of England's Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS), which has started to increase the flow of mortgage funds and make mortgages cheaper as well.

Various commentators have suggested that sales will keep on rising in 2013.

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/jan/24/mcdonalds-create-2500-uk-jobs

 

The fast-food chain McDonald's will create at least 2,500 UK jobs this year, it has announced.The company expects more than a half of the new posts to go to young people, and around 30% to first-time workers.

David Cameron and Nick Clegg welcomed the announcement and praised the company for its record on staff training.

The prime minister said: "I am delighted to welcome McDonald's announcement of new jobs.

"McDonald's has a great record in investing in the UK and providing excellent training, apprenticeships and opportunities for its staff."

The deputy prime minister is visiting a McDonald's training centre in East Finchley, north London, to meet staff training for apprenticeships and other qualifications.

He said: "It is fantastic news that McDonald's is creating 2,500 new jobs in the UK – and that over half of these posts will go to young people.

"This invests valuable time and resources to help young people, with little or no experience in the world of work, to develop their skills and confidence. In the end, that gives young people a terrific opportunity to move up within the company, or use their experience and training to move into other jobs.

"It's a telling fact that half of McDonald's current board have progressed from the shop floor to the top floor, having started their careers serving customers in the restaurant."

The new jobs build on the 13,500 posts McDonald's has created over the last three years and take the UK staff count to 90,000.

Jill McDonald, chief executive officer of McDonald's UK, said: "Despite these difficult economic conditions, our continued emphasis on good quality food at affordable prices, and improving the experience for our customers and our people, has meant that we are able to continue to invest in the business and create jobs.

"Today's job market is particularly tough for young people so it remains vital that these jobs continue to offer great training programmes that teach the valued, transferable skills that will give them a solid footing on the career ladder and help them to progress their careers with us or other employers."

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image_normal.jpgAndrew Neil ‏@afneil

Economy falls 0.3% in q4. Ouch!

 

BNEWS_twitter128_normal.jpgSky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak

Office for National Statistics: year-on-year UK economic growth was flat

 

RBS_Twitter_Logo_normal.gifRBS Economic Insight ‏@RBS_Economics

2008-12: the weakest four years of #GDP performance outside post-war demobilisations since at least the 1830s. Yes, the 1830s. #UK #economy

 

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130125-GDP.jpg

 

 

302_businessman_teacher_or_officeworker_surrendering_and_waving_the_white_flag.jpg

Edited by trousers
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Interesting listening to the economist oon the radio today - they are fairly ambivilent about the numbers - mainly because on the fact that they are invariably wrong and will be revised. They were basically saying overall the economy hasn't grown during the year (which I don't think is any surprise) and we are still bouncing along the bottom.

 

Interestly the economy has only shrunk 2.8% since 2008 - amazing how so small a fall can cause so much grief.

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21291411

 

The contraction of manufacturing across the eurozone slowed in January amid signs that the worst may be over, according to a survey.

The Markit Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 47.9, from 46.1 in December.

The index has been below the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction since August 2011.

But Markit's chief economist Chris Williamson said the January data pointed to the eurozone returning to growth in mid-2013.

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  • 3 weeks later...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21554311

 

"The UK has lost its top AAA credit rating for the first time since 1978 on expectations that growth will "remain sluggish over the next few years"."

 

"The main driver underpinning Moody's decision to downgrade the UK's government bond rating to AA1 is the increasing clarity that, despite considerable structural economic strengths, the UK's economic growth will remain sluggish over the next few years due to the anticipated slow growth of the global economy and the drag on the UK economy," Moody's said.

 

That pesky global economy dragging us down again...

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That would be the same GLOBAL economy that crashed and caused the financial crisis ? ( The one that Gordy is apparently blamed for, and that Georgie Porgie is similarly hamstrung by. )

 

Yep, that's the one... Funny old game this politics malarkey... Given the 'false accusations' thrown at Labour you'd have thought they'd be first to defend the government given its the same influences at play...

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@georgegalloway: Degraded Britain: Official! Cameron/Clegg government sinking faster than the pound. Con-Dem Coalition must GO

 

@ndcook1973: @georgegalloway who would you like to see them realistically replaced with?

 

@georgegalloway: @ndcook1973 labour

 

@Lord_Trousers: @georgegalloway @ndcook1973 Wouldn't that be a bit like giving the England football manager job back to Steve McLaren?

 

@georgegalloway: @Lord_Trousers Miliband is a bit more impressive than McLaren

 

Hmmm....discuss :)

 

(Unless you happen to be Israeli...)

Edited by trousers
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Think its time for Cameron to end Georgie's work experience. He is clearly incapable to the job (as is the whole coalition, but that's another matter), and it shows that a history degree doesn't make a good chancellor.

 

Ideal candidate for the job would have at least 20 years experience working in economics and preferably run a ''successful'' business. Someone like Branson or Sugar, but less high profile. Someone who has worked his or her way up the business ladder and understands how the economy works.

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I'm all for sacking the incompetent Mr Osbourne...

 

...but, on a different yet related point (and sorry Dr Kucho, you are just the latest in a long line of offenders), can we all, for once, accept that the UK is not analogous to either a large multinational business or to a household with a budget. Such comparisons drive me fu.cking insane and, although comforting, are completely useless.

 

Thank you - rant over.

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The government ****ed this up politically by putting too much emphasis on the AAA rating. Yes, it was important to keep borrowing at rock bottom rates, but the ratings are just a guide. Its down to the markets and provided they've still got confidence rates will remain low. The us lost their status, but continue to borrow at low rates. Cameron and Osborne put too much on the actual status rather than the rate. For that basic mistake they deserve all the stick coming to them.

 

Peter Hitchens offered the opinion that we're not seeing a downturn but national decline. A decline overseen by both major parties. I tend to agree, neither party are prepared to make cuts, its all tinkering around the edges, just kicking the can down the road in the hope of getting elected. We have a health service and welfare system based on a 1950's view of the world and both need major reform. Nobody will do it, because it makes them unelectable. We have spent 40 years living above our means and do not want to deal with that fact. You can change government,but the thinking will remain the same. They just think the deck chairs should be arranged differently. The ship is still going down.

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Think its time for Cameron to end Georgie's work experience. He is clearly incapable to the job (as is the whole coalition, but that's another matter), and it shows that a history degree doesn't make a good chancellor.

 

Ideal candidate for the job would have at least 20 years experience working in economics and preferably run a ''successful'' business. Someone like Branson or Sugar, but less high profile. Someone who has worked his or her way up the business ladder and understands how the economy works.

 

Don't think it makes much difference until the European economy s recover.businesses will be just keep bumping along.we need to investment in our infrastructure and building projects like more council houses etc.we also need to find smart ways of growing the economy and cut back on the failure of 80s trickle down rubbish which led to a investors putting money in to a false property boom rather than investment in businesses.

 

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk 2

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Don't think it makes much difference until the European economy s recover.businesses will be just keep bumping along.we need to investment in our infrastructure and building projects like more council houses etc.we also need to find smart ways of growing the economy and cut back on the failure of 80s trickle down rubbish which led to a investors putting money in to a false property boom rather than investment in businesses.

 

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk 2

 

On one hand you advocate building houses and on the other complain about a property boom. Houses are the last place we should be putting what little money we have available for investment.

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On one hand you advocate building houses and on the other complain about a property boom. Houses are the last place we should be putting what little money we have available for investment.

 

I think you're wrong here. There is a desparate shortage of decent housing and it's the lack of supply that drives prices up. Invest in housing and there would be 3 benefits.

 

Firstly, a lot of unemployed construction workers would get jobs and there would be a knock-on effect on other employment sectors (retail and manufacturing)

 

Secondly, increasing the supply would surely remove the demand element, meaning housing would become cheaper comparitively

 

Lastly, controls could be put in place to ensure that much of the newly built housing was only available to, for example, housing associations / councils and not available to the private sector for commercial gain (e.g. don't allow buy-to-let landlords to buy it).

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I think you're wrong here. There is a desparate shortage of decent housing and it's the lack of supply that drives prices up. Invest in housing and there would be 3 benefits.

 

Firstly, a lot of unemployed construction workers would get jobs and there would be a knock-on effect on other employment sectors (retail and manufacturing)

 

Secondly, increasing the supply would surely remove the demand element, meaning housing would become cheaper comparitively

 

Lastly, controls could be put in place to ensure that much of the newly built housing was only available to, for example, housing associations / councils and not available to the private sector for commercial gain (e.g. don't allow buy-to-let landlords to buy it).

 

It takes large amounts of money out of the economy and all you get are a load of houses and a host of other associated problems. These houses all have to be heated, watered, drained, and connected to the transport system. The basic problem is that there are too many people in the country and the demand is steadily increasing. We need trade in order to pay our way and we can't export houses.

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It takes large amounts of money out of the economy and all you get are a load of houses and a host of other associated problems. These houses all have to be heated, watered, drained, and connected to the transport system. The basic problem is that there are too many people in the country and the demand is steadily increasing. We need trade in order to pay our way and we can't export houses.

 

As does paying unemployment benefit to construction workers who are out of work and who are therefore not able to boost the economy by spending wages. Let alone the knock-on effect on associated industries (think manufacturers of scaffolding, pipework, civil engineering kit, bricks and then fittings for new houses and furniture and white goods - the list is endless)

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I think you're wrong here. There is a desparate shortage of decent housing and it's the lack of supply that drives prices up. Invest in housing and there would be 3 benefits.

 

Firstly, a lot of unemployed construction workers would get jobs and there would be a knock-on effect on other employment sectors (retail and manufacturing)

 

Secondly, increasing the supply would surely remove the demand element, meaning housing would become cheaper comparitively

 

Lastly, controls could be put in place to ensure that much of the newly built housing was only available to, for example, housing associations / councils and not available to the private sector for commercial gain (e.g. don't allow buy-to-let landlords to buy it).

here is an idea to help solves this

 

open up our borders (unrestricted) to 29m people

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As does paying unemployment benefit to construction workers who are out of work and who are therefore not able to boost the economy by spending wages. Let alone the knock-on effect on associated industries (think manufacturers of scaffolding, pipework, civil engineering kit, bricks and then fittings for new houses and furniture and white goods - the list is endless)

 

Add up all that unemployment benefit and you won't have enough to pay for many houses. We need to make things to sell.

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The government ****ed this up politically by putting too much emphasis on the AAA rating. Yes, it was important to keep borrowing at rock bottom rates, but the ratings are just a guide. Its down to the markets and provided they've still got confidence rates will remain low. The us lost their status, but continue to borrow at low rates. Cameron and Osborne put too much on the actual status rather than the rate. For that basic mistake they deserve all the stick coming to them.

 

Peter Hitchens offered the opinion that we're not seeing a downturn but national decline. A decline overseen by both major parties. I tend to agree, neither party are prepared to make cuts, its all tinkering around the edges, just kicking the can down the road in the hope of getting elected. We have a health service and welfare system based on a 1950's view of the world and both need major reform. Nobody will do it, because it makes them unelectable. We have spent 40 years living above our means and do not want to deal with that fact. You can change government,but the thinking will remain the same. They just think the deck chairs should be arranged differently. The ship is still going down.

 

This

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Well, interesting reactions in markets - sterling down 0.13% and the footsie is up.Not quite the disaster that it has been made out to be.

 

Considering that Sterlings devauation happened in the last couple of weeks, what's the betting that the currency traders knew about the downgrade in advance of its publication and have shorted the pound.

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  • 3 weeks later...
Trousers you should watch this interview with Larry Summers, former adviser to three Presidents and Chief Economist at the World Bank.

[video=youtube;6d7s49-jPl0]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6d7s49-jPl0

 

Hmmm...

 

Summers's role in the deregulation of derivatives contracts

 

On May 7, 1998, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a Concept Release soliciting input from regulators, academics, and practitioners to determine "how best to maintain adequate regulatory safeguards without impairing the ability of the OTC (Over-the-counter) derivatives market to grow and the ability of U.S. entities to remain competitive in the global financial marketplace." [25] On July 30, 1998, then-Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Summers testified before the U.S. Congress that "the parties to these kinds of contract are largely sophisticated financial institutions that would appear to be eminently capable of protecting themselves from fraud and counterparty insolvencies." Summers, like Greenspan and Rubin who also opposed the concept release, offered no proof that the contracts would not be misused by financial institutions. Instead, Summers stated that "to date there has been no clear evidence of a need for additional regulation of the institutional OTC derivatives market, and we would submit that proponents of such regulation must bear the burden of demonstrating that need." [26] In 1999 Summers endorsed the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act which removed the separation between investment and commercial banks, saying "With this bill, the American financial system takes a major step forward towards the 21st Century."[27]

The first response to the CFTC Concept Release was issued as a joint statement from Rubin, Alan Greenspan, and Arthur Levitt who stated that they "have grave concerns about this action and its possible consequences." [28] Levitt and Greenspan have admitted that their views on this issue were mistaken. Levitt told WGBH in Boston that "I could have done much better. I could have made a difference." Greenspan told a congressional hearing that "I found a flaw ... in the model that I perceived is the critical functioning structure that defines how the world works." [29] [30] WhenGeorge Stephanopoulos asked Summers about the financial crisis in an ABC interview on March 15, 2009, Summers replied that "there are a lot of terrible things that have happened in the last eighteen months, but what's happened at A.I.G. ... the way it was not regulated, the way no one was watching ... is outrageous."

At the 2005 Federal Reserve conference in Jackson Hole, Raghuram Rajan presented a paper called "Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier?" Rajan pointed to a number of potential problems with the financial developments of the past thirty years.[31] The problems that Rajan considers include skewed incentives of managers, herding behavior among traders, investment bankers, and hedge fund operators who suffer withdrawals if they under-perform the market. Rajan also discusses (on pp. 337–40) the problems associated with firms that "goose up returns" by taking risky positions that yield a "positive carry." This is how Joseph J. Cassano impressed his superiors at A.I.G. for a decade while sowing the destruction of the firm. [32] During the boom years of the housing market, the credit default swap contracts that A.I.G. Financial Products sold provided a stream of premium payments to the company with no expense stream. That's an example of what Rajan calls "goosing up returns" with latent risk. Rajan asks (on page 388) "If firms today implicitly are selling various kinds of default insurance to goose up returns, what happens if catastrophe strikes?"

The flip side of the trade is equally problematic. Gregory Zuckerman in his book The Greatest Trade Ever about John Paulson's hedge fund recounts the difficulties that Paulson and others had holding on to their bets against the housing market. Even Paulson, whose timing couldn't have been better, spent a great deal of his time persuading investors to persist with the bet against the market. But month after month, millions of dollars were paid out on the credit default swap premia. The investors saw money spent and gone that could have been used to buy assets with rising prices, or at least held safely with a positive yield. As Rajan puts it (p. 338), "it takes a very brave investment manager with infinitely patient investors to fight the trend, even if the trend is a deviation from fundamental value."

Justin Lahart, writing in the Wall Street Journal in January 2009 about the response to Rajan's paper at the conference recounts that "former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, famous among economists for his blistering attacks, told the audience he found 'the basic, slightly lead-eyed premise of [Mr. Rajan's] paper to be largely misguided.'"[33]

In a recent paper (on pages 285–87), Steven Gjerstad and Nobel laureate Vernon L. Smith describe more fully (1) the contribution of derivatives to the flow of mortgage funds that supported the housing bubble, (2) the concerns that Brooksley Born had raised about the dangers inherent in these contracts, (3) Summers's contribution to their deregulation, and (4) how these contracts precipitated the collapse of the financial system in 2007 and 2008. [34]

In February 2009, Summers quoted John Maynard Keynes, saying "When circumstances change, I change my opinion", reflecting both on the failures of Wall Street deregulation and his new leadership role in the government bailout.[35]

On April 18, 2010, in an interview on ABC's “This Week” program, Clinton said Summers was wrong in the advice he gave him not to regulate derivatives.[36]

 

[h=4]Losses on financial derivatives[/h]During Summers's presidency at Harvard, the University entered into a series totalling US$3.52 billion of interest rate swaps, financial derivatives that can be used for either hedging orspeculation.[51] Summers approved the decision to enter into the swap contracts as president of the university and as a member of Harvard Corporation, which bears "the school's ultimate fiduciary responsibility."[52] By late 2008, those positions had lost approximately $1 billion in value, a setback which forced Harvard to borrow significant sums in distressed market conditions to meet margin calls on the swaps.[53] In the end Harvard paid $497.6 million in termination fees to investment banks and has agreed to pay another $425 million over 30–40 years.[52] The decision to enter into the swap positions has been attributed to Summers and has been termed a "massive interest-rate gamble" that ended badly.[54]
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  • 2 weeks later...
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7670aa62-a5e6-11e2-b7dc-00144feabdc0.html

 

"Business confidence among finance chiefs of the UK’s biggest companies has risen sharply as worries about economic and financial uncertainty have dropped to their lowest level for two-and-a-half-years"

 

FWIW talking to our planning departments, especially in the south more plans for large housing sites have been put in then certainly there have been for the previous 2 years.

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Despite incompetent government I think a corner has been turned.

 

Hope they don't blow it with a disasterous mini housing and consumer boom - instead, must maintain (and actually make effective) the focus on rebalancing economy away from City and services and salvaging/improving whats left of our infrastructure. Lets see what happens eh...

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"The IMF said the UK was "progressing slowly". It suggested the Chancellor, George Osborne, should consider reining back his austerity plan.

 

 

The IMF's report said: "In the United Kingdom, the recovery is progressing slowly, notably in the context of weak external demand and ongoing fiscal consolidation."

It said economic weakness and a lack of willingness to lend were holding back the private sector.

The IMF rarely gives direct advice, preferring to give discreet prompts.

It said about the UK: "Greater near-term flexibility in the path of fiscal adjustment should be considered in the light of lacklustre private demand."

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