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Green shoots?

trousers

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badgerx16

badgerx16

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20795217

 

"UK retail sales failed to grow in November, adding to fears that consumers are reining in spending ahead of Christmas.

Sales volumes were flat in November compared with October, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

They had been expected to bounce back after October's shock 0.8% fall."

 

 

 

Q) what would be the impact on the UK if the US economy falls off it's 'cliff' ?

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pap

pap

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Never had you down as a socialist Trousers - trumpeting the success of workers owned businesses, returning the profits to the employees.

 

trousers is the least convincing right winger on here. My personal view is that he'll be running a weaving commune as soon as his financial responsibilities allow it.

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trousers

trousers

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Never had you down as a socialist Trousers - trumpeting the success of workers owned businesses, returning the profits to the employees.

 

I was trumpeting a sign that people seemingly have more disposable income to spend on luxury items. It just happened to be at John Lewis which, of course, is a fine example of social capitalism.... ;)

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badgerx16

badgerx16

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And by utilising the fine art of selective quoting :

 

"Confidence is still low, with many concerned about lack of demand and wider economic issues,....."

".....but it's going to be a long road ahead, with some economists warning of a triple-dip recession...."

 

The shoots may be green, but the economic frost is still nipping at them.

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trousers

trousers

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Robert_Peston_CF076892.flat_normal.jpgRobert Peston ‏@Peston

And why a sustainable eurozone recovery would be more expensive for Osborne and the Treasury than losing AAA http://bbc.in/13fpPwJ

 

There is a painful paradox for George Osborne, the British chancellor, in the revival of investors' animal spirits, their optimism, which stems in large part from the perception that the risk of a eurozone fracture has diminished.

The point is that if investors began to take the view that the risk of eurozone collapse had become negligible once more - and the next great staging post in keeping this rickety thing intact will be the Italian elections - then in one important but narrow sense that would be quite bad news for him.

Because in the ugly contest of where investors squirrel their cash, highly indebted Britain would look relatively uglier, if not absolutely uglier.

And that means he would find it significantly harder and more expensive to borrow the colossal new sums he will need for many years yet.

Or to put it another way, a eurozone recovery that looked real and sustainable could actually increase the budgetary squeeze faced by the Chancellor, as his interest cost would probably rise.

Here is what you may think of as markets' bad-taste joke: if Britain were to lose its AAA credit rating in the coming weeks - which looks highly likely - that would be very embarrassing for a government that made it a badge of honour to retain the fabled AAA; but in a fiscal sense, the revival of investor confidence in Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland and Greece would be rather more expensive for Osborne and the Treasury.

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Window Cleaner

Window Cleaner

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Green shoots? no idea. Red Shoot was (and probably still is) a good pub though. Only pub in Hampshire with Löwenbrau on draught at one time. Rocket fuel in those days, under the table after 3 pints. Many a lad plyed his lady friend with the exotic nectar and got lucky a mile or so up the road on the way home.

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trousers

trousers

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http://www.smmt.co.uk/2013/01/uk-car-manufacturing-achieves-all-time-record-exports-in-2012/

 

UK car manufacturing achieves all-time record exports in 2012

 

Posted 9:35 Thursday 17 January 2013

  • UK car manufacturing broke all-time export records in 2012, with volumes sent overseas exceeding 1.2 million, up 8% on last year.
  • Total vehicle output increased 8% last year to 1.58 million units, the highest level since 2008.
  • Car output rose 9% in 2012 to 1.46 million units, ending the year with a 6% rise in December.

Paul Everitt, SMMT Chief Executive said, “2012 was a very good year for UK car production with record levels of exports and volumes at their highest since 2008.

“The outlook for 2013 remains positive with demand in many faster growing global markets offsetting the continued weakness in European economies. The £6 billion of investment committed to UK facilities, new model programmes and R&D signals a bright future and many new opportunities for companies in the supply chain. These remain extremely challenging times and it is essential industry and government continue to work together to secure long-term industrial growth.”

Business Secretary Vince Cable said, “News that UK car production increased by 9% in 2012 and exports are at record levels is a great tribute to our manufacturing strengths, particularly in the face of challenging trading conditions in Europe and strong international competition.

“The UK is achieving success by making products that are in demand across the world. We have a diverse and innovative automotive sector with some of the most productive plants in the world and a flexible, skilled and committed workforce.

“The government is creating a highly supportive business environment to ensure that UK manufacturers continue to flourish as well as encouraging further investment in the UK automotive sector, including the supply chain.

“There is no room for complacency and to build on this competitive advantage we are working jointly with the auto sector on a long term industrial strategy.”

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bridge too far

bridge too far

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Do love this thread

 

No one is right or wrong.... No matter how many bbc, mail, telegraph or (of course) guardian links that are posted

 

I do too Jamie - especially knowing, as soon as one new piece of information is broadcast. that within half an hour Trousers will be posting (and me, I'm guilty of this too!). All good fun :)

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trousers

trousers

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21057345

 

Argos has reported healthy sales growth as it successfully moves to click-and-collect online ordering.The retailer reported 2.7% like-for-like growth, during its peak autumn period, with consumer electronics, notably tablet computers, selling well.

The firm's "check and reserve" ordering service grew its share of sales from 28% to 31% over the last four months.

Orders placed online via mobiles and tablets more than doubled, and 42% of Argos' business is now done online.

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trousers

trousers

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21055640

 

Dixons Retail, owner of Currys and PC World, has reported robust sales growth over the Christmas period.Ignoring the effect of store openings and closures,sales in the 12 weeks to 5 January were up 7% from last year.

UK and Ireland sales rose 8%, despite the lure of fire-sale prices at Comet, the electrical retailer's main rival which collapsed just before Christmas.

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trousers

trousers

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21055646

 

Clothes retailer Primark has said sales jumped by a quarter in the last three months, boosting profits at owner Associated British Foods.

The surprisingly strong sales were due to good performance at existing stores and a big expansion in retail space.

Parent company ABF, which also owns the Twinings, Ovaltine, Ryvita and Jordans brands,said overall revenue rose 10%, despite problems in its groceries unit.

Revenue at its sugar business rose 10% despite poor growing conditions.

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trousers

trousers

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21023602

 

Here are two big questions about the collapse into administration of HMV.

 

Will it go the way of Jessops and Comet? Will all 239 stores be closed, with the loss of all 4,000 jobs?

 

And is there a rising incidence of corporate insolvencies which could actually be a good thing, in the widest possible sense (please bear with me; I haven't taken leave of my senses or transmogrified into some kind of insane company necrophiliac)?

 

On the first question, what future holds for HMV and its people, the outlook looks considerably better than for other recently kaput store groups.

 

And the reason, according to influential sources close to HMV, is that the music industry and the film industry want its survival, albeit they recognise that will have to be with fewer stores and with fewer locations.

 

Record labels (are they still called that or am I showing my age?) and DVD distributors don't want to be wholly dependent for sales on Amazon and Apple's iTunes.

 

So Deloitte, appointed as administrators to HMV last night, is working on the assumption that these important suppliers will help the creation of a slimmed-down and viable HMV.

 

This is unlikely to involve these suppliers actually buying HMV out of administration. Much more likely is that they would provide easy credit terms to a buyer - which will very likely be a private equity group (right now, again, there is too much money in private equity chasing too few deals).

 

Now on to my hideously heartless question whether the collapse of HMV is good for the rest of us.

 

First of all, I had better explain what I mean.

 

The evidence of past recessions is that economic growth doesn't resume at any great velocity until unviable and inefficient businesses are put of their misery and excess capacity in various industries is eliminated.

 

Now, although there has been a fair old number of retailing collapses in the past year or so (according to FRP Advisory, HMV is the 32nd significant retail chain to go into administration in just over a year), there have been many fewer corporate collapses since the financial crisis of 2008 than was predictable on the basis of past economic experience.

 

As you will know (don't yawn) if you read this column, this economic malaise has been characterised by many weak businesses being put on life support and turned into the living dead, or (to use what is now a cliche, so sorry) zombies.

 

This is good for the employees of these companies, for a while at least.

 

But, many would argue, it is not good for the economy in the long run. Because it preserves excess capacity, in a way that makes it more difficult for new business to grow and thrive, and it also holds back the progress of bigger more successful businesses.

 

So if HMV's demise signals a rising incidence of banks and other creditors being more ruthless in putting lame companies out of their misery, that might in a fundamental sense be quite a good thing.

 

And if those rising corporate mortality rates were real, it would also show that banks were feeling increasingly confident that they have sufficient capital to absorb the consequential losses - which would also be a very positive sign, in that banks would also have sufficient capital to extend necessary credit to viable businesses.

 

Here's the bad news (please forgive).

 

According to leading administrators, so far the underlying trend of corporate deaths does not seem to have risen much. The number of companies going into administration is still bumping along at a relatively low level.

 

If it doesn't feel that way, that's simply because recently companies that have gone down - Comet, Jessops and HMV - were so visible and famous.

 

But there are still plenty - far too many - corporate zombies that are clinging on and holding back job creation by companies with much better prospects.

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bridge too far

bridge too far

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Although of course imports will become more expensive and that could boost inflation. The main driver I think is the poor forecast from one of the credit ratings agencies as it says at the bottom of the article:

 

On Tuesday, the Fitch ratings agency warned that the UK's top-notch sovereign credit rating could be cut if the Chancellor of the Exchequer's March budget shows debt levels continuing to rise.

 

Strange thing is that Cameron is always banging on about how they're cutting the deficit.

 

In other news:

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2013/jan/17/benefits-squeeze-200000-children-poverty

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Whitey Grandad

Whitey Grandad

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Although of course imports will become more expensive and that could boost inflation. The main driver I think is the poor forecast from one of the credit ratings agencies as it says at the bottom of the article:

 

On Tuesday, the Fitch ratings agency warned that the UK's top-notch sovereign credit rating could be cut if the Chancellor of the Exchequer's March budget shows debt levels continuing to rise.

 

Strange thing is that Cameron is always banging on about how they're cutting the deficit.

 

In other news:

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2013/jan/17/benefits-squeeze-200000-children-poverty

 

That's not real poverty.

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suewhistle

suewhistle

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You don't need to tell me, I live in the euro zone. But what's the UK balance of payments like? How much substitution of foreign imports can you do with home manufacturing, how much food does the country need to import? Double edge sword Trousers, with no comfortable grip either...

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bridge too far

bridge too far

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Just out of interest BTF, if the economy does start to get going as a result of the economic policies of GO would you give him the credit he would deserve?

 

Possibly but I'd also have to weigh up the other ramifications of his policies e.g. unemployment, child poverty, downgrading of social care, housing needs etc.

 

However, I think that a lot of people, including Mervyn King, Chairman of the Bank of England, the IMF and a good number of big businesses are openly stating that they don't think his policies ARE working and they know far more than I ever would

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trousers

trousers

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21158815

 

The number of people out of work fell by 37,000 between September and November to 2.49 million, figures show.The total is the lowest since the March-to-May period in 2011.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) also said the number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance fell by 12,100 to 1.56 million in December, the lowest figure since June 2011.

The number of people in work rose to another record of 29.7 million in the three months to November.

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