trousers Posted 17 January, 2014 Author Share Posted 17 January, 2014 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25774455 UK retail sales in December were up 5.3% on a year ago - the fastest annual sales growth in more than nine years. The figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggested growth in consumer spending above the expectations of many analysts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seaford Saint Posted 18 January, 2014 Share Posted 18 January, 2014 For me to acknowledge a recovery has started I would need to know how much food or clothes has been bought on credit....I would also like to know in the employment figures whether the number of jobs created are part time or full time and whether the sorts jobs created would enable the job holders to be able to afford a mortgage. We need to buy stuff made in this country, buying foreign made TVs fridges etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 21 January, 2014 Author Share Posted 21 January, 2014 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25823217 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has sharply increased its growth forecast for the UK economy. It now expects the economy to grow 2.4% this year - faster than any other major European economy - against its previous forecast of 1.9%. In 2015, it expects growth of 2.2%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buctootim Posted 21 January, 2014 Share Posted 21 January, 2014 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25774455 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25823217 Its good news - but its still just a recovery driven by increased consumer demand - and as wages aren't rising that just means more debt. whatever happened to Osbourne's much vaunted manufacturing led recovery? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 21 January, 2014 Author Share Posted 21 January, 2014 Its good news - but its still just a recovery driven by increased consumer demand - and as wages aren't rising that just means more debt. whatever happened to Osbourne's much vaunted manufacturing led recovery? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25575511 "UK manufacturing's strong upsurge continued at the end of 2013, with rates of growth in production and new orders still among the highest in the 22-year PMI survey history," said Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buctootim Posted 21 January, 2014 Share Posted 21 January, 2014 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25575511 I did actually mean to say exports instead of manufacturing (although obviously manufacturing is a big part of that). http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10577238/Britains-export-target-wont-be-hit-without-changes-says-spending-watchdog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bridge too far Posted 21 January, 2014 Share Posted 21 January, 2014 I wonder when those working to produce this upturn (i.e. workers) will see a benefit in the form of a pay rise? Of course I don't mean bankers or 'bosses' -recently there was a report that the salaries of CEOs of FTSE listed companies increased at 20 times the rate of salary increase of their lowest paid employees. This margin has increased dramatically in recent years. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/top-company-bosses-pay-rising-at-20-times-rate-of-ordinary-workers-8945740.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 21 January, 2014 Share Posted 21 January, 2014 I wonder when those working to produce this upturn (i.e. workers) will see a benefit in the form of a pay rise? Of course I don't mean bankers or 'bosses' -recently there was a report that the salaries of CEOs of FTSE listed companies increased at 20 times the rate of salary increase of their lowest paid employees. This margin has increased dramatically in recent years. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/top-company-bosses-pay-rising-at-20-times-rate-of-ordinary-workers-8945740.html Don't hold your breath. One of the features of recessions is that companies use them as an opportunity for a clear out. Many will have been rattling along without the need to consider productivity or staffing levels but once things start to get tight then every little detail is examined for the possibility of savings. Many companies also need to rebuild their balance sheets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bridge too far Posted 21 January, 2014 Share Posted 21 January, 2014 Don't hold your breath. One of the features of recessions is that companies use them as an opportunity for a clear out. Many will have been rattling along without the need to consider productivity or staffing levels but once things start to get tight then every little detail is examined for the possibility of savings. Many companies also need to rebuild their balance sheets. Well they could cut the wages of the top echelon for starters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 21 January, 2014 Share Posted 21 January, 2014 Well they could cut the wages of the top echelon for starters! There are obvious candidates but these are not indicative of most companies. I don't like the expression but a recession is seen as a chance to get 'rid of the dead wood'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurosaint Posted 21 January, 2014 Share Posted 21 January, 2014 Clearly positive news, thankfully we don't have Labour to Balls it up (yet!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bridge too far Posted 21 January, 2014 Share Posted 21 January, 2014 Robert Peston's take on today's news: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25832626 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonb Posted 22 January, 2014 Share Posted 22 January, 2014 All I want to know is it time to go on a fixed rate yet? I have been tracking 0.99% above base for the last 4 years. Unfortunately haven't been in a position to overpay in those 4 years which I would of loved to of done. I think I've seen 2 years fixed rates at 2.49% at first direct but they won't last long once the rates go up. Stick or twist I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buctootim Posted 22 January, 2014 Share Posted 22 January, 2014 All I want to know is it time to go on a fixed rate yet? I have been tracking 0.99% above base for the last 4 years. Unfortunately haven't been in a position to overpay in those 4 years which I would of loved to of done. I think I've seen 2 years fixed rates at 2.49% at first direct but they won't last long once the rates go up. Stick or twist I suppose. If you want a fixed rate now is the time to do it imo. Make sure you really are getting a good deal though- the total amount payable over the life of the mortgage is the best guide. Decent article here. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/10299959/Best-fixed-rate-mortgages-two-three-five-and-10-years.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopGun Posted 22 January, 2014 Share Posted 22 January, 2014 The economic news today is good so it looks as though most of us may benefit over the coming months. Bizarrely I lost money today because of the news though as my Bellway shares took a hit. Clearly based on the possibility that the Bank of England may increase interest rates sooner than expected which may affect the ability of people to get mortgages. I think it's a short term market reaction and the longer term wider benefits will prevail overall and recover my immediate losses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Duckhunter Posted 23 January, 2014 Share Posted 23 January, 2014 (edited) I can't see rates going up pre the election, I know the BOE is independent, but just can't see them wanting to rock the boat yet. Even if the unemployment trigger is reached, the recovery is too fragile. I suspect they'll be another caveat around average earnings before rates go up. I am with nationwide and have been for years. Because of the length of time I've been with them im on their BMR which they guanteed would never be more than 2% above base. This used to be their variable rate, but now they call that their SMR, which has no such guarantee. They keep trying to bribe me to switch , which indicates they're not expecting rate rises soon and if there is a rise it won't be high. Lenders may try and bump up their SVR's to increase margin between the base rate and their borrowers rates but if I was a betting man I'd back a tiny % rise at worse by the next election. Edited 23 January, 2014 by Lord Duckhunter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Saint Posted 23 January, 2014 Share Posted 23 January, 2014 I think they would put the rates up. They will hide behind the boe independence, as well as trotting out the tough decisions, sticking to the plan mantra which has got them to where they are today Wages won't increase until the labour availability constricts sufficiently to force wages up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torres Posted 23 January, 2014 Share Posted 23 January, 2014 All I want to know is it time to go on a fixed rate yet? You're right to be thinking about fixing at some point but I wouldn't go for it just yet (and I'm not). Any rise in the short term would kill any semblance of economic feel-good that may be around at the moment as millions of homeowners would find themselves with even less disposable income and the Gvmt can't afford for that to happen prior to the election and, as Peston points out in the link above, much of the recent good news is based on domestic consumption which would be hit by a rate rise. Additionally, with inflation falling, the most obvious pressure to increase rates has been lifted and it's given the MPC the easy get out from the 7% unemployment trap they set for themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
solentstars Posted 23 January, 2014 Share Posted 23 January, 2014 Quantive easing by the bank of England is what has been used to make our debt shrink and true inflation is around 6% I say.the banks are not lending and using our bail out money with no risk to them to build their balance sheets.try getting a loan and see what interest they charge.we are not exporting our way out of trouble but are relying on another fake housing bubble .you can tell there is a election around the corner. Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 23 January, 2014 Share Posted 23 January, 2014 Quantive easing by the bank of England is what has been used to make our debt shrink and true inflation is around 6% I say.the banks are not lending and using our bail out money with no risk to them to build their balance sheets.try getting a loan and see what interest they charge.we are not exporting our way out of trouble but are relying on another fake housing bubble .you can tell there is a election around the corner. Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk This extra money to the banks is also one of the reasons that savings rates are so poor. The banks don't need to attract money from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
solentstars Posted 23 January, 2014 Share Posted 23 January, 2014 This extra money to the banks is also one of the reasons that savings rates are so poor. The banks don't need to attract money from them. your right on that we have a situation that we are bailing out banks and financial institutions who do not need to take a risk and pay themselves obscene money with our cash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 28 January, 2014 Author Share Posted 28 January, 2014 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25926648 UK economy grew by 0.7% in fourth quarter of 2013, bringing annual growth rate to 1.9%, ONS says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bridge too far Posted 28 January, 2014 Share Posted 28 January, 2014 Shifting sands, Lord T, shifting sands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verbal Posted 28 January, 2014 Share Posted 28 January, 2014 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25926648 And yet GDP remains below 2007 levels - the British economy is still smaller than it was almost seven years ago. Brilliant achievement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 28 January, 2014 Author Share Posted 28 January, 2014 And yet GDP remains below 2007 levels - the British economy is still smaller than it was almost seven years ago. Brilliant achievement! About the same time its taken Southampton Football Club to recover from a catastrophic implosion then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buctootim Posted 28 January, 2014 Share Posted 28 January, 2014 (edited) Peston: "As the governor of the Bank of England has pointed out - it has been driven by household consumption and activity related to the revival in the housing market. And although most would say that after the long years of contraction and stagnation since the crash, any recovery will do, we cannot yet bank on the durability of this one. What we don't yet have is what the coalition government insisted it wanted and it would deliver, namely a balanced recovery whose longevity is assured". http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25928323 Edited 28 January, 2014 by buctootim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Duckhunter Posted 28 January, 2014 Share Posted 28 January, 2014 And yet GDP remains below 2007 levels - the British economy is still smaller than it was almost seven years ago. Brilliant achievement! Where would it be if Brown and Balls were still in charge? Where will we be if Labour are given another go, where France is heading , seeing as Milliband hailed Hollande and said "This new leadership is sorely needed as Europe seeks to escape from austerity". When people come to cast their vote in 2015,luckily they can look around at other places that have tried the Labour remedy. France for economics and Wales for health. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guided Missile Posted 28 January, 2014 Share Posted 28 January, 2014 Where will we be if Labour are given another go, where France is heading , seeing as Milliband hailed Hollande and said "This new leadership is sorely needed as Europe seeks to escape from austerity". When people come to cast their vote in 2015, luckily they can look around at other places that have tried the Labour remedy. France for economics and Wales for health. Reminds me of an exchange with one of our wonderful expats on this forum: 14-01-2009 Told you so (about the British economy in recession). When you see it from without it's far far worse than what you see from within. Been heading on a downward spiral for about 5 years. Everybody told you all in blighty that endless credit for anything and everything would be your come uppance. looks like they might haver been right. It was obvious to anyone who talked to some of the holiday oiks that we get here in France that they were living way way above their means funded by credit.Stupid people with IQs of about 0.5 driving BMW 4x4s obtained on credit but with mortgage arrears totting up. I don't want to pi $$ on your bonfire, but I wouldn't crack open the champagne too soon. A few facts: Currently, France has a debt of 66.6% of their GDP. Gross debt could rise to around 72 percent of GDP in 2010 as the French economy contracts by 1.5%. Today France is using approximately 89% of the income tax or 140% of its corporation tax to pay on the interest alone for the national debt. UK National debt is about 43% of GDP A debt of 43% of GDP isn't bad for a nation that refused to collaborate with the Nazis and were prepared to spend all of it's gold reserves helping to free the rest of Europe from tyranny. The rest of the money, we needed to spend on armaments to defend "Blighty" and liberate France and the rest of Europe, we borrowed from the US under the lend lease programme, a loan which we finished paying back on 29th December, 2006. These are just statistics,important ones no doubt but they do not affect the average househokld in any way shape or form. As for all of the rest I couldn't give a sh*t. I know from speaking to many many people how it is in "France profond" Simple people,living simply without all the trappings and attributes that so many of our countymen seem to need so badly.I work with 107 other people and not oner of them is in any way affected by the "global downturn". Out of touch, expat gone native, IMO. A quick read of the history of France will tell you it is bound to go t!ts up soon, with another corrupt government installed to try and sort out the mess, as Paris riots and burns and tractors block the roads, fisherman the ports. Take a look a what's happening in Greece. It's more relevant to you than what is happening in "Blighty". On second thoughts, have another bottle of wine and shrug. It's what the French do in a crisis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Bognor Posted 19 February, 2014 Share Posted 19 February, 2014 Inflation down yesterday Employment up today Are we done with this thread now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 20 February, 2014 Share Posted 20 February, 2014 Inflation down yesterday Employment up today Are we done with this thread now? Long way to go yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Duckhunter Posted 20 February, 2014 Share Posted 20 February, 2014 Inflation down yesterday Employment up today Are we done with this thread now? Don't be silly, the lefties are in denial. They'll be along soon with selective figures and quotes to show how wicked the Tories are and how its not really a recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badgerx16 Posted 20 February, 2014 Share Posted 20 February, 2014 Inflation down yesterday Employment up today Are we done with this thread now? Don't be silly, the lefties are in denial. They'll be along soon with selective figures and quotes to show how wicked the Tories are and how its not really a recovery. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26261696 "However, the Bank's governor, Mark Carney, said the recovery so far had been 'neither balanced nor sustainable' and required continued support. Experts have raised concerns that improvements are too dependent on consumer spending." "Mr Osborne stressed that 'as well as reasons to be cheerful, there are also reasons to be careful". 'The recovery is not yet secure and our economy is still too unbalanced.'" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 20 February, 2014 Share Posted 20 February, 2014 "Mr Osborne stressed that 'as well as reasons to be cheerful, there are also reasons to be careful." There's a classic political statement if ever I saw one. Used for any situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 3 March, 2014 Author Share Posted 3 March, 2014 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26417047 UK manufacturing grew faster than expected in February, with employment in the sector expanding at its fastest pace in almost three years. The Markit/CIPS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) ticked up to 56.9 from 56.6 in January, higher than the 56.5 expected by economists. A figure above 50 indicates expansion. It is the eleventh consecutive month that UK manufacturing has expanded. Jobs growth in the sector rose at its fastest rate since May 2011. Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit, said the sharp rise in job creation should also support the broader economic recovery. "The survey suggests we should expect another quarter of robust economic growth in the opening quarter of the year," he added. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 3 March, 2014 Author Share Posted 3 March, 2014 http://www.eef.org.uk/blog/post/Backing-Britain-the-reshoring-story-continues.aspx "The shifting winds of globalisation have blown some manufacturing activity back to the UK’s shores. Amidst the challenges the UK economy has faced, and the uncertainty that businesses and policy makers have grappled with in recent years, this is one positive trend that has risen to the top.". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buctootim Posted 4 March, 2014 Share Posted 4 March, 2014 http://www.eef.org.uk/blog/post/Backing-Britain-the-reshoring-story-continues.aspx People worry unnecessarily about China - the high water mark of their competitive advantage has already passed. Currently there is no tax or either shipping or aviation fuel - meaning international transport of goods is artificially cheap. If it were taxed at the same rate as road transport it would transform the economics of manufacturing in higher wage economies. global Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 10 March, 2014 Author Share Posted 10 March, 2014 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26504691 "Our economic recovery is gaining momentum," said BCC director general John Longworth. "Businesses across the UK are expanding and creating jobs, and our increasingly sunny predictions for growth are a testament to their drive and ambition." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Bognor Posted 10 March, 2014 Share Posted 10 March, 2014 People worry unnecessarily about China - the high water mark of their competitive advantage has already passed. Currently there is no tax or either shipping or aviation fuel - meaning international transport of goods is artificially cheap. If it were taxed at the same rate as road transport it would transform the economics of manufacturing in higher wage economies. global Inshoring is the latest trend. Because of lead times (due to sea freight) companies can't be flexible with their manufacturing. Production is always two months behind demand. Either there is not enough stock and it takes too long to get, or you receive your stock when demand drops off. This is why Hornby transferred production back to the UK. 1 in 6 companies who outsourced to China are currently inshoring. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7e736f90-539e-11e3-9250-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2vYvoBhQm http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/british-companies-are-reshoring-jobs-cameron-will-tell-davos-9081358.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 11 March, 2014 Author Share Posted 11 March, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pap Posted 24 March, 2014 Share Posted 24 March, 2014 1,500 people queue up for 40 jobs. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/10717308/Thousands-queue-for-chance-to-work-at-Aldi.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 24 March, 2014 Author Share Posted 24 March, 2014 Round of applause to the Aldi marketing department Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pap Posted 24 March, 2014 Share Posted 24 March, 2014 That's 37.5 people applying for each job. If the trend continues, you'll soon need to win a talent competition to get a shelf stacking job. Patent the concept before Simon Cowell does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bridge too far Posted 24 March, 2014 Share Posted 24 March, 2014 They've probably been offered an alternative, Pap, from Santander. Zero hours contract that guarantees 1 hour a month in a customer service role. The sort of job people are MADE to apply for via the much discredited Universal JobMatch Scheme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pap Posted 24 March, 2014 Share Posted 24 March, 2014 They've probably been offered an alternative, Pap, from Santander. Zero hours contract that guarantees 1 hour a month in a customer service role. The sort of job people are MADE to apply for via the much discredited Universal JobMatch Scheme. I can imagine loads of people going for the Aldi jobs. They are reputedly well paid for the skill-set required. The level of interest is staggering; to subvert trousers' point, hooray for jobseekers. The numbers somewhat lance the myth that no-one can be arsed. As for the forced placements, I've always thought them to be little more than slave labour, with the added disadvantage of taking paid hours out of the economy. There were a couple of lads (presumably placement) in TESCO Old Swan talking about "Frank Lampard flicking the bean" - this is a relatively new development. I must say, I rather enjoy crude humour. The old lady that has come in for teabags, or indeed Christine Bleakley, mightn't be as amused. Veering swiftly back onto serious subject matter, I wonder if the jobs are really out there - this ratio of applicants to positions would suggest not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 25 March, 2014 Author Share Posted 25 March, 2014 "The numbers somewhat lance the myth that no-one can be arsed" Or...the numbers indicate that the government's policy to make work more attractive than benefits is actually having a positive effect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pap Posted 25 March, 2014 Share Posted 25 March, 2014 "The numbers somewhat lance the myth that no-one can be arsed" Or...the numbers indicate that the government's policy to make work more attractive than benefits is actually having a positive effect... Yeah, tell that to all the people who've taken their lives as a result of recent policy, if you can. Cost of doing business, trousers? Eggs for an ideological omelette? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 25 March, 2014 Author Share Posted 25 March, 2014 Give me the details and I'll investigate their circumstances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pap Posted 25 March, 2014 Share Posted 25 March, 2014 Give me the details and I'll investigate their circumstances. Nah, let's deal with the broad for now. Irrespective of whether there is any design to do so or not, seems like the weakest in society are having a very tough time of it. A lot of people have taken their own lives, others have had to rely on loan sharks, etc. From the right-wing perspective, isn't this just survival of the fittest? Is there a small part of you which says "f**k them"? Serious question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 25 March, 2014 Author Share Posted 25 March, 2014 (edited) Talking of broad brushes, I guess its against SWF rules to bring up Labour's record on helping 'the poor' at this juncture? Only you seem to be making the ascertain that its a 'right wing' issue... Political jostling aside, I do accept that the Tories are often poor at implementing sensible policies. (Whereas Labour are often good at implementing poor ones ) Edited 25 March, 2014 by trousers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pap Posted 25 March, 2014 Share Posted 25 March, 2014 Talking of broad brushes, I guess its against SWF rules to bring up Labour's record on helping 'the poor' at this juncture? Only you seem to be making the ascertain that its a 'right wing' issue... Political jostling aside, I do accept that the Tories are often poor at implementing sensible policies. (Whereas Labour are often good at implementing poor ones ) I'm not saying it's right wing only. I'm asking for the opinion of a right winger. Seems to be against the rules to answer a simple question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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