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Green shoots?


trousers

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For me to acknowledge a recovery has started I would need to know how much food or clothes has been bought on credit....I would also like to know in the employment figures whether the number of jobs created are part time or full time and whether the sorts jobs created would enable the job holders to be able to afford a mortgage.

 

We need to buy stuff made in this country, buying foreign made TVs fridges etc

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Its good news - but its still just a recovery driven by increased consumer demand - and as wages aren't rising that just means more debt. whatever happened to Osbourne's much vaunted manufacturing led recovery?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25575511

 

"UK manufacturing's strong upsurge continued at the end of 2013, with rates of growth in production and new orders still among the highest in the 22-year PMI survey history," said Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit.
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I wonder when those working to produce this upturn (i.e. workers) will see a benefit in the form of a pay rise?

 

Of course I don't mean bankers or 'bosses' -recently there was a report that the salaries of CEOs of FTSE listed companies increased at 20 times the rate of salary increase of their lowest paid employees. This margin has increased dramatically in recent years.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/top-company-bosses-pay-rising-at-20-times-rate-of-ordinary-workers-8945740.html

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I wonder when those working to produce this upturn (i.e. workers) will see a benefit in the form of a pay rise?

 

Of course I don't mean bankers or 'bosses' -recently there was a report that the salaries of CEOs of FTSE listed companies increased at 20 times the rate of salary increase of their lowest paid employees. This margin has increased dramatically in recent years.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/top-company-bosses-pay-rising-at-20-times-rate-of-ordinary-workers-8945740.html

 

Don't hold your breath. One of the features of recessions is that companies use them as an opportunity for a clear out. Many will have been rattling along without the need to consider productivity or staffing levels but once things start to get tight then every little detail is examined for the possibility of savings. Many companies also need to rebuild their balance sheets.

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Don't hold your breath. One of the features of recessions is that companies use them as an opportunity for a clear out. Many will have been rattling along without the need to consider productivity or staffing levels but once things start to get tight then every little detail is examined for the possibility of savings. Many companies also need to rebuild their balance sheets.

 

Well they could cut the wages of the top echelon for starters!

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All I want to know is it time to go on a fixed rate yet?

 

I have been tracking 0.99% above base for the last 4 years.

 

Unfortunately haven't been in a position to overpay in those 4 years which I would of loved to of done.

 

I think I've seen 2 years fixed rates at 2.49% at first direct but they won't last long once the rates go up.

 

Stick or twist I suppose.

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All I want to know is it time to go on a fixed rate yet?

 

I have been tracking 0.99% above base for the last 4 years.

 

Unfortunately haven't been in a position to overpay in those 4 years which I would of loved to of done.

 

I think I've seen 2 years fixed rates at 2.49% at first direct but they won't last long once the rates go up.

 

Stick or twist I suppose.

 

If you want a fixed rate now is the time to do it imo. Make sure you really are getting a good deal though- the total amount payable over the life of the mortgage is the best guide. Decent article here. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/10299959/Best-fixed-rate-mortgages-two-three-five-and-10-years.html

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The economic news today is good so it looks as though most of us may benefit over the coming months.

 

Bizarrely I lost money today because of the news though as my Bellway shares took a hit. Clearly based on the possibility that the Bank of England may increase interest rates sooner than expected which may affect the ability of people to get mortgages. I think it's a short term market reaction and the longer term wider benefits will prevail overall and recover my immediate losses.

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I can't see rates going up pre the election, I know the BOE is independent, but just can't see them wanting to rock the boat yet. Even if the unemployment trigger is reached, the recovery is too fragile. I suspect they'll be another caveat around average earnings before rates go up.

 

I am with nationwide and have been for years. Because of the length of time I've been with them im on their BMR which they guanteed would never be more than 2% above base. This used to be their variable rate, but now they call that their SMR, which has no such guarantee. They keep trying to bribe me to switch , which indicates they're not expecting rate rises soon and if there is a rise it won't be high. Lenders may try and bump up their SVR's to increase margin between the base rate and their borrowers rates but if I was a betting man I'd back a tiny % rise at worse by the next election.

Edited by Lord Duckhunter
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I think they would put the rates up. They will hide behind the boe independence, as well as trotting out the tough decisions, sticking to the plan mantra which has got them to where they are today

 

Wages won't increase until the labour availability constricts sufficiently to force wages up.

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All I want to know is it time to go on a fixed rate yet?

 

You're right to be thinking about fixing at some point but I wouldn't go for it just yet (and I'm not).

 

Any rise in the short term would kill any semblance of economic feel-good that may be around at the moment as millions of homeowners would find themselves with even less disposable income and the Gvmt can't afford for that to happen prior to the election and, as Peston points out in the link above, much of the recent good news is based on domestic consumption which would be hit by a rate rise. Additionally, with inflation falling, the most obvious pressure to increase rates has been lifted and it's given the MPC the easy get out from the 7% unemployment trap they set for themselves.

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Quantive easing by the bank of England is what has been used to make our debt shrink and true inflation is around 6% I say.the banks are not lending and using our bail out money with no risk to them to build their balance sheets.try getting a loan and see what interest they charge.we are not exporting our way out of trouble but are relying on another fake housing bubble .you can tell there is a election around the corner.

 

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk

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Quantive easing by the bank of England is what has been used to make our debt shrink and true inflation is around 6% I say.the banks are not lending and using our bail out money with no risk to them to build their balance sheets.try getting a loan and see what interest they charge.we are not exporting our way out of trouble but are relying on another fake housing bubble .you can tell there is a election around the corner.

 

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk

 

This extra money to the banks is also one of the reasons that savings rates are so poor. The banks don't need to attract money from them.

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This extra money to the banks is also one of the reasons that savings rates are so poor. The banks don't need to attract money from them.

your right on that we have a situation that we are bailing out banks and financial institutions who do not need to take a risk and pay themselves obscene money with our cash.

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And yet GDP remains below 2007 levels - the British economy is still smaller than it was almost seven years ago. Brilliant achievement!

 

About the same time its taken Southampton Football Club to recover from a catastrophic implosion then...

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Peston: "As the governor of the Bank of England has pointed out - it has been driven by household consumption and activity related to the revival in the housing market. And although most would say that after the long years of contraction and stagnation since the crash, any recovery will do, we cannot yet bank on the durability of this one. What we don't yet have is what the coalition government insisted it wanted and it would deliver, namely a balanced recovery whose longevity is assured".

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25928323

Edited by buctootim
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And yet GDP remains below 2007 levels - the British economy is still smaller than it was almost seven years ago. Brilliant achievement!

 

 

 

Where would it be if Brown and Balls were still in charge?

 

 

 

Where will we be if Labour are given another go, where France is heading , seeing as Milliband hailed Hollande and said "This new leadership is sorely needed as Europe seeks to escape from austerity".

 

When people come to cast their vote in 2015,luckily they can look around at other places that have tried the Labour remedy. France for economics and Wales for health.

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Where will we be if Labour are given another go, where France is heading , seeing as Milliband hailed Hollande and said "This new leadership is sorely needed as Europe seeks to escape from austerity".

 

When people come to cast their vote in 2015, luckily they can look around at other places that have tried the Labour remedy. France for economics and Wales for health.

 

Reminds me of an exchange with one of our wonderful expats on this forum:

 

14-01-2009

 

Told you so (about the British economy in recession). When you see it from without it's far far worse than what you see from within. Been heading on a downward spiral for about 5 years. Everybody told you all in blighty that endless credit for anything and everything would be your come uppance. looks like they might haver been right. It was obvious to anyone who talked to some of the holiday oiks that we get here in France that they were living way way above their means funded by credit.Stupid people with IQs of about 0.5 driving BMW 4x4s obtained on credit but with mortgage arrears totting up.

I don't want to pi $$ on your bonfire, but I wouldn't crack open the champagne too soon. A few facts:

Currently, France has a debt of 66.6% of their GDP.

Gross debt could rise to around 72 percent of GDP in 2010 as the French economy contracts by 1.5%.

Today France is using approximately 89% of the income tax or 140% of its corporation tax to pay on the interest alone for the national debt.

UK National debt is about 43% of GDP

A debt of 43% of GDP isn't bad for a nation that refused to collaborate with the Nazis and were prepared to spend all of it's gold reserves helping to free the rest of Europe from tyranny. The rest of the money, we needed to spend on armaments to defend "Blighty" and liberate France and the rest of Europe, we borrowed from the US under the lend lease programme, a loan which we finished paying back on 29th December, 2006.

These are just statistics,important ones no doubt but they do not affect the average househokld in any way shape or form. As for all of the rest I couldn't give a sh*t. I know from speaking to many many people how it is in "France profond" Simple people,living simply without all the trappings and attributes that so many of our countymen seem to need so badly.I work with 107 other people and not oner of them is in any way affected by the "global downturn".

Out of touch, expat gone native, IMO. A quick read of the history of France will tell you it is bound to go t!ts up soon, with another corrupt government installed to try and sort out the mess, as Paris riots and burns and tractors block the roads, fisherman the ports.

Take a look a what's happening in Greece. It's more relevant to you than what is happening in "Blighty".

On second thoughts, have another bottle of wine and shrug. It's what the French do in a crisis.

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  • 4 weeks later...
Inflation down yesterday

Employment up today

 

Are we done with this thread now?

Don't be silly, the lefties are in denial. They'll be along soon with selective figures and quotes to show how wicked the Tories are and how its not really a recovery.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26261696

"However, the Bank's governor, Mark Carney, said the recovery so far had been 'neither balanced nor sustainable' and required continued support. Experts have raised concerns that improvements are too dependent on consumer spending."

 

"Mr Osborne stressed that 'as well as reasons to be cheerful, there are also reasons to be careful".

 

'The recovery is not yet secure and our economy is still too unbalanced.'"

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  • 2 weeks later...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26417047

 

UK manufacturing grew faster than expected in February, with employment in the sector expanding at its fastest pace in almost three years.

The Markit/CIPS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) ticked up to 56.9 from 56.6 in January, higher than the 56.5 expected by economists. A figure above 50 indicates expansion.

It is the eleventh consecutive month that UK manufacturing has expanded.

Jobs growth in the sector rose at its fastest rate since May 2011.

Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit, said the sharp rise in job creation should also support the broader economic recovery.

"The survey suggests we should expect another quarter of robust economic growth in the opening quarter of the year," he added.

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http://www.eef.org.uk/blog/post/Backing-Britain-the-reshoring-story-continues.aspx

 

"The shifting winds of globalisation have blown some manufacturing activity back to the UK’s shores. Amidst the challenges the UK economy has faced, and the uncertainty that businesses and policy makers have grappled with in recent years, this is one positive trend that has risen to the top.".
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People worry unnecessarily about China - the high water mark of their competitive advantage has already passed. Currently there is no tax or either shipping or aviation fuel - meaning international transport of goods is artificially cheap. If it were taxed at the same rate as road transport it would transform the economics of manufacturing in higher wage economies. global

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People worry unnecessarily about China - the high water mark of their competitive advantage has already passed. Currently there is no tax or either shipping or aviation fuel - meaning international transport of goods is artificially cheap. If it were taxed at the same rate as road transport it would transform the economics of manufacturing in higher wage economies. global

 

Inshoring is the latest trend. Because of lead times (due to sea freight) companies can't be flexible with their manufacturing. Production is always two months behind demand. Either there is not enough stock and it takes too long to get, or you receive your stock when demand drops off. This is why Hornby transferred production back to the UK. 1 in 6 companies who outsourced to China are currently inshoring.

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7e736f90-539e-11e3-9250-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2vYvoBhQm

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/british-companies-are-reshoring-jobs-cameron-will-tell-davos-9081358.html

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
They've probably been offered an alternative, Pap, from Santander. Zero hours contract that guarantees 1 hour a month in a customer service role. The sort of job people are MADE to apply for via the much discredited Universal JobMatch Scheme.

 

I can imagine loads of people going for the Aldi jobs. They are reputedly well paid for the skill-set required. The level of interest is staggering; to subvert trousers' point, hooray for jobseekers. The numbers somewhat lance the myth that no-one can be arsed.

 

As for the forced placements, I've always thought them to be little more than slave labour, with the added disadvantage of taking paid hours out of the economy. There were a couple of lads (presumably placement) in TESCO Old Swan talking about "Frank Lampard flicking the bean" - this is a relatively new development. I must say, I rather enjoy crude humour. The old lady that has come in for teabags, or indeed Christine Bleakley, mightn't be as amused.

 

Veering swiftly back onto serious subject matter, I wonder if the jobs are really out there - this ratio of applicants to positions would suggest not.

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"The numbers somewhat lance the myth that no-one can be arsed"

 

Or...the numbers indicate that the government's policy to make work more attractive than benefits is actually having a positive effect...

 

Yeah, tell that to all the people who've taken their lives as a result of recent policy, if you can.

 

Cost of doing business, trousers? Eggs for an ideological omelette?

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Give me the details and I'll investigate their circumstances.

 

Nah, let's deal with the broad for now.

 

Irrespective of whether there is any design to do so or not, seems like the weakest in society are having a very tough time of it. A lot of people have taken their own lives, others have had to rely on loan sharks, etc.

 

From the right-wing perspective, isn't this just survival of the fittest? Is there a small part of you which says "f**k them"?

 

Serious question.

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Talking of broad brushes, I guess its against SWF rules to bring up Labour's record on helping 'the poor' at this juncture? Only you seem to be making the ascertain that its a 'right wing' issue...

 

Political jostling aside, I do accept that the Tories are often poor at implementing sensible policies. (Whereas Labour are often good at implementing poor ones ;) )

Edited by trousers
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Talking of broad brushes, I guess its against SWF rules to bring up Labour's record on helping 'the poor' at this juncture? Only you seem to be making the ascertain that its a 'right wing' issue...

 

Political jostling aside, I do accept that the Tories are often poor at implementing sensible policies. (Whereas Labour are often good at implementing poor ones ;) )

 

I'm not saying it's right wing only.

 

I'm asking for the opinion of a right winger.

 

Seems to be against the rules to answer a simple question.

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