Jump to content

Green shoots?


trousers

Recommended Posts

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17583544

UK manufacturing growth at 10-month high in March

 

The UK's manufacturing sector grew at its fastest pace for 10 months in March, a survey has indicated.

 

The Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing rose to 52.1 last month from 51.5 in February. A reading above 50 implies growth.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17593655

UK economy 'weak but showing signs of improvement'

 

The UK economy has shown a few signs of improvement in the first three months of this year, the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has said.

 

The latest quarterly economic survey by the business lobby said that domestic orders and exports were all higher from the previous quarter.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17594682

Pret a Manger sandwich chain to create 550 jobs in UK

 

The Pret a Manger sandwich chain is creating 550 jobs in the UK this year as the company continues a rapid expansion.

 

Pret plans to open 44 new stores in 2012, of which 20 will be overseas.

 

Those expansion plans were released along with the company's annual results. Sales rose 15% last year to £377.3m.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/mediatechnologyandtelecoms/digital-media/9182687/UK-online-advertising-spend-jumps-14pc-to-4.8bn.html

UK online advertising spend jumps 14pc to £4.8bn

 

Online advertising spend increased by 14.4pc to a new high of £4.8bn in 2011, with video ads helping drive growth and online display advertising passing the £1bn barrier for the first time.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9179577/UK-business-optimism-rises-as-fears-of-double-dip-recession-and-a-eurozone-break-up-fade.html

UK business optimism rises as fears of double-dip recession and a eurozone break-up fade

 

The financial services sector is also becoming less gloomy, with the latest CBI/PwC survey showing that business volumes have increased for the eighth quarter running – at a higher than average pace.

 

Of the 95 financial firms that responded, 44pc saw volumes rise in the quarter to March, with only 21pc reporting a fall. The resulting positive balance of 23pc was well ahead of the long-run average of 12pc.

 

Financial firms also reported a surprise increase in employment. “More positive economic data and a slightly more stable environment in the eurozone mean that banks are much more confident,” said Kevin Burrowes, UK financial services leader at PwC, noting that this was now “translating into recruitment”.

Edited by trousers
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh, not 'green shoots' again! It's an old Tory scam to be the 'first' to call a recovery - aka wishful thinking which they hope others will buy on the flimsiest of evidence. And some of those listed above are clearly anything but optimistic. The growth in online advertising, for example, is at the expense, and worse, of 'offline' advertising in newspapers, TV, radio, etc. Financial services is less gloomy because it floats on a sea of taxpayer loan guarantees. Pret (aka McDonald's) is displacing independent sandwich shops in a classic 'clone high street' expansion. The economy is officially back in recession. And UK manufacturing is 'enjoying' a brief respite from a crushing low.

 

Happy now?

Edited by Verbal
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Source?

 

Interesting discussion on this here:

 

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-1616085/Economy-watch-Is-Britain-heading-recession.html

 

And here:

 

http://www.ftadviser.com/2012/04/03/investments/economic-indicators/uk-recession-fears-eased-as-bcc-predicts-growth-in-q-U9weTeesPvbCM3LVFLPfyO/article.html

 

Hardly something to get the bunting out for, is it? I'll concede that I'll have to wait for the coup de grace on 25 April, when the ONS produce their stats. Fancy another tenner?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We are neither in recovery or recession, rather bouncing along the bottom instead. Some quarters we are up a couple of basis ppoints, other we are down. The green shoots are some way off yet - perhaps spring 2013, provided Europe can hold it together.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Given that our economy is 70% services and that all the evidence suggests that growth is being restricted by a lack of demand I would say that we are unlikley to be out of the woods just yet:

 

i) The Eurozone crisis is just bubbling under and will re-surface when it becomes apparent that the austerity measures in (Greece), Spain and Italy aren't working.

ii) (Possibly more importantly) we have only seen less than 10% of govt cuts enacted so far. More cuts = less money in economy = less demand.

 

I hope I'm wrong.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have been fairly insulated from this recession, however, this month I have had a few hard hits.

a lot of the small things I pay for have gone up much more than inflation. My £3000 postage bill has risen 30% (£900) An investment I had earning 6% ends and I can only get 4.5% to replace it. My tracker mortgage deal at 0.5% above base ends and has defaulted to standard rate at 6.25%. I should be able to clear most of the mortgage off in August when an investment pays out. Petrol and heating fuel are way up. My pension increases are now going to be tied to CPI rather than RPI, Part 2 of my pension dosent come out now untill I'm sixty bloody seven!It cost us £150 to go to hospital last week (train 2 taxis, overnight lodging) £250 on specs

Stupid things like Green waste, swimming are up. Eating out seams to cost £30 a head not £20 a head... or am I going to better places? The food bill is breaking the £100 per week more often. we are growing our own bedding plants this year, not buying them in.

 

On the good side I got a 3% pay rise. and the tax limit rose £1000

 

There are green shoots, however Camerons useless use of the strimmer could cut off the green shoots, Especially the 30% postage rise. That is a game changer to UK eBay sellers (and buyers!) Drought, fuel shortages. Air taxes, It all could stifle confidence. Spending and recovery.

Edited by tony13579
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 1 month later...

 

There was an interesting segment on yesterday's Country File about the demise of 'county farms'. Local councils are selling off these farms to cover the cuts in spending to the detriment of tenant farmers who have learned their trade / craft over the years.

 

This is an old article but the sentiment remains

 

http://www.fwi.co.uk/Articles/12/11/2010/124372/County-farms-in-jeopardy-as-great-century-ends-on-sticky.htm

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18158226

 

The IMF report said that the UK had made "substantial progress" towards achieving a more sustainable budgetary position and reducing fiscal risks.

 

Ms Lagarde, gave a strong endorsement to the government's actions: "The gain that resulted from the fiscal consolidation that was decided two years ago has been that result, the credibility of the UK government and its ability to borrow at extremely favourable rates.

 

"Sometimes you feel like you could look back and wonder 'what if?'. And when I think back myself to May 2010, when the UK deficit was at 11% and I try to imagine what the situation would be like today if no such fiscal consolidation programme had been decided ... I shiver."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18158226

 

The IMF report said that the UK had made "substantial progress" towards achieving a more sustainable budgetary position and reducing fiscal risks.

 

Ms Lagarde, gave a strong endorsement to the government's actions: "The gain that resulted from the fiscal consolidation that was decided two years ago has been that result, the credibility of the UK government and its ability to borrow at extremely favourable rates.

 

"Sometimes you feel like you could look back and wonder 'what if?'. And when I think back myself to May 2010, when the UK deficit was at 11% and I try to imagine what the situation would be like today if no such fiscal consolidation programme had been decided ... I shiver."

 

No-one was suggesting 'no such fiscal consolidation programme' - just a slower speed.

 

I note that she is also suggesting VAT cuts and more QE - so its not exactly a ringing endorsement of Plan A - more like an acknowledgement of a need for Plan B. Quite a change from the IMF position of last year, confirming that they don't know what the fu.ck to do about the problem.... like the rest of us.

 

Until demand can be sustainably re-introduced into the economy the recession/flat-lining will continue. See graph above.

 

Its not about party politics, its about a complete overhaul of the present system - still capitalist.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18171591

 

Nationwide Building Society has said it increased mortgage lending sharply last year and helped more first-time property buyers to buy a home.

Gross mortgage lending was 44% higher for the year to 4 April than for the previous year, with £18.4bn lent.It also said it had helped 24,000 buyers buy their first home, an increase of 9% on the year before.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Christine Largade "I shiver at the thought of Labour mismanageing the economy".

 

Economical with the truth, as ever. That's not what she said at all. What she ACTUALLY said was she "shivered" when she thought of what might have happened to the UK "if no such fiscal consolidation programme had been decided" after May 2010. She didn't mention Labour mismanaging the economy at all.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18165420

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good game this :-)

 

Edit: although, point of order on the your retail price article.....the index mainly went down due to people having filled up their petrol tanks in the month before

 

Strange excuse that one. Even I, now retired and rarely using my car, fill my car up more than once a month! Goes with wrong snow, public holidays (that were supposed to INCREASE spending) etc.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18171591

 

Nationwide Building Society has said it increased mortgage lending sharply last year and helped more first-time property buyers to buy a home.

Gross mortgage lending was 44% higher for the year to 4 April than for the previous year, with £18.4bn lent.It also said it had helped 24,000 buyers buy their first home, an increase of 9% on the year before.

 

Mortgage Lending at 12 month low

http://www.sharecast.com/cgi-bin/sharecast/story.cgi?story_id=20110740

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Strange excuse that one. Even I, now retired and rarely using my car, fill my car up more than once a month! Goes with wrong snow, public holidays (that were supposed to INCREASE spending) etc.

 

Trousers is correct on this. The phantom fuel strike led to a big spike in fuel sales, this was recognised by all sides as a distorting element.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18174694

 

Shares in online grocer Ocado, which sells mostly Waitrose goods, jumped by almost 7% after it said sales were likely to be higher.

The company said second-quarter sales to 13 May were likely to be 13% up on a year ago.

 

Tesco Dismal Results

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/05/22/tesco-boss-philip-clarke-_n_1535307.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Economical with the truth, as ever. That's not what she said at all. What she ACTUALLY said was she "shivered" when she thought of what might have happened to the UK "if no such fiscal consolidation programme had been decided" after May 2010. She didn't mention Labour mismanaging the economy at all.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18165420

 

Well she clearly supports the Conservative approach to tackling the deficit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I never went to Clintons cards even when I needed a greetings card. Little things like that can sometimes be a problem for a retailer. They had thousands of cards in similar tacky taste, nothing you would actually want to give to anybody. Amazed they lasted this long tbh.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I never went to Clintons cards even when I needed a greetings card. Little things like that can sometimes be a problem for a retailer. They had thousands of cards in similar tacky taste, nothing you would actually want to give to anybody. Amazed they lasted this long tbh.

 

Indeed. An economic downturn tends to punish those companies that get complacent and take their eye of the ball.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You could replace Labour with Conservative or Lib Dem, all 3 parties don't have a clue how to run the economy and promote growth.

 

Nigel Farage hits the nail right on head.

 

What nail? what head? What did he say apart from "we are being run by college kids with little experience" (which I largely agree with). He bemoaned the economic situation without saying what the solution is. Always easy to do.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I can confirm there are lots of green shoots at my work...they were a bit slow this year due to the cold and rain but they are coming up all over the place now...Should keep my lawn mowers and hedge cutters very busy until autmn....

 

Tell me about it. Only mowed the back lawns the day before yesterday and they need mowing again. And the hedges are now growing like f/ck.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 weeks later...
Inflation is down too...

 

I'm bit annoyed about this tbh as my pay review is coming up next month.

The government threatened the retail fuel industry to reduce prices quicker or they would intervene, after a drop in the market price. I wonder if this threat manipulated the timing just intime for any critical dates?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...