The9 Posted 29 March, 2012 Share Posted 29 March, 2012 (edited) No need to discuss it any further, thanks to this frankly mental stats website : http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/ChampionshipLeague.html I've compiled a screenshot showing the effects on Saints of each of the 3 results : Basically, the draw is best for us in terms of promotion. What a shock. . Though actually it's a pretty slim difference, only 0.3% swing between the 3 possible results. On the bright side, as it stands today we're in with a 98.4% chance of promotion, 86.6% chance of winning the title. That's pretty good odds. A Saints win on Saturday takes us up to 99.6% of promotion and 93.4% of the title... Only a West Ham win REDUCES that. Edited 29 March, 2012 by The9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatch Posted 29 March, 2012 Share Posted 29 March, 2012 all I can say is , WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Appy Posted 29 March, 2012 Share Posted 29 March, 2012 If only there was another thread on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 29 March, 2012 Author Share Posted 29 March, 2012 That's why this is the definitive answer. Blame this lot, only took me a minute or two to cut and paste the screenshots : http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/ChampionshipLeague.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griffo Posted 29 March, 2012 Share Posted 29 March, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 29 March, 2012 Author Share Posted 29 March, 2012 So boring there have been about 4 threads about what the best result of that match is for Saints. You can't argue with pure probability data. Though admittedly these have weightings for previous results and probably don't take teams fighting relegation or derby matches into account. The website also has a calculation based on 50/50 results for this reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hutch Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 That's the same website that SLASHED our promotion prospects from 99.0% to 98.4% after West Ham's midweek win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Special K Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 It will be a cracking game. I love this stage of the season and far more this year because of our league position. Looking forward to tomorrow afternoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colinjb Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 That's the same website that SLASHED our promotion prospects from 99.0% to 98.4% after West Ham's midweek win. I am still trying to accept only a 1.6 in 100 chance of us not getting promoted.... That's crazy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheaf Saint Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 Wwwwwibble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
This Charming Man Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 So boring there have been about 4 threads about what the best result of that match is for Saints. You can't argue with pure probability data. Though admittedly these have weightings for previous results and probably don't take teams fighting relegation or derby matches into account. The website also has a calculation based on 50/50 results for this reason. You can when you're using it for something as unpredictable as a football match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 30 March, 2012 Author Share Posted 30 March, 2012 You can when you're using it for something as unpredictable as a football match. It's not "a football match", it's "a season" based on statistical evidence of 39/46ths of the season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
This Charming Man Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 It's not "a football match", it's "a season" based on statistical evidence of 39/46ths of the season so far. And the season consists of unpredictable football matches. If it was all as straight forward and simple as that, there wouldn't be a wealthy bookmakers in the land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
This Charming Man Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 And the season consists of unpredictable football matches. If it was all as straight forward and simple as that, there wouldn't be a wealthy bookmakers in the land. What with us having a 99.6% chance of promotion if we beat Blackpool, I assume bookies will stop offering odds on it as it's all but guaranteed according to this, though they won't because it's not and football doesn't quite work like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 30 March, 2012 Author Share Posted 30 March, 2012 And the season consists of unpredictable football matches. If it was all as straight forward and simple as that, there wouldn't be a wealthy bookmakers in the land. What with us having a 99.6% chance of promotion if we beat Blackpool, I assume bookies will stop offering odds on it as it's all but guaranteed according to this, though they won't because it's not and football doesn't quite work like that. Yeah there would, they just offer worse odds to the punter than the probability of any of these things happening and they win all ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beancounter saint Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 You could have a "definitive" probability on a coin toss etc but these probabilities are still based on someone's opinion somewhere along the line. Even if it's supposed to be based on past performance that's still a judgement from whoever is compiling the stats - how far back do you look, what has changed since the teams played previously, do you take this into account? I'm no statistician but it's pretty obvious if you think about it that the margin for error is going to be quite high. The result may not be too far out at the end of the day but it does give a figure that's more odds-on than most of the bookies are offering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 30 March, 2012 Author Share Posted 30 March, 2012 You could have a "definitive" probability on a coin toss etc but these probabilities are still based on someone's opinion somewhere along the line. Even if it's supposed to be based on past performance that's still a judgement from whoever is compiling the stats - how far back do you look, what has changed since the teams played previously, do you take this into account? I'm no statistician but it's pretty obvious if you think about it that the margin for error is going to be quite high. The result may not be too far out at the end of the day but it does give a figure that's more odds-on than most of the bookies are offering. As I mentioned earlier, there's a "50/50" results button on there which takes all of that out of the equation as well, no opinions, just probability based on the existing table and no projection of form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beancounter saint Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 As I mentioned earlier, there's a "50/50" results button on there which takes all of that out of the equation as well, no opinions, just probability based on the existing table and no projection of form. Unless I am misunderstanding surely that implies a prediction equivalent to tossing a coin for each future result. I don't see how that represents an accurate probability prediction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bender Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 Although a Wham win would cut the gap from 3rd to 5 points, I'm hoping for a Wham win. All we then need is a draw at Blackpool and we are 6 points off Reading with the Easter period to come and our fixtures over Easter are much easier than Readings. We then play Reading and even if we lose, thats still a 3 point gap with 3 to go - we should beat either Posh or Boro away and also Cov at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJ_TOAST Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 is the game on tv ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
This Charming Man Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 is the game on tv ? A Saturday, 3pm kick off would suggest not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJ_TOAST Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 A Saturday, 3pm kick off would suggest not... doh, for some reason I had it in my head it was this evening. nevermind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supersonic Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 basically... best case scenario: Saints win/Reading win (9points clear of third) worst case scenario: Saints lose/West Ham win (5 points clear of third) a draw between Reading and WH would be ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S-Clarke Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 basically... best case scenario: Saints win/Reading win (9points clear of third) worst case scenario: Saints lose/West Ham win (5 points clear of third) a draw between Reading and WH would be ideal What a great worse case scenario that is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
This Charming Man Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 doh, for some reason I had it in my head it was this evening. nevermind Unfortunately not. Surprised we're on TV over this game, TBH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supersonic Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 What a great worse case scenario that is! exactly, I'd much rather be at least 5 points clear with 6 games to go than having to chase us. Best case scenario... Saints win v Blackpool/Reading beat WH (9points clear of WH/5 clear of Reading with 6 to play) Saints win v Pompey/Reading and WH both win (as above but 5 games to go) Saints won v Palace/Reading and WH Both win (as above but 4 games to go) means Saints win v Reading and we're up, effectively as champions (8 points clear of Reading, at least 9 clear of WH with 3 to play) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 Very impressive, The9. You should get out more. Does your mum know what you get up to in that little room of yours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Marco Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 To be honest with you I actually hope Reading ****ing destroy West Ham. To me it doesn't matter if we go up as champions just that we go up. Like league one last year, we didn't win it and it doesn't really matter that we didn't. All that matters is we keep on improving. So say Reading win it would be a 4 point gap from them to West Ham and if we win our game it will be a 9 point gap (technically 10 due to our GD). With just 6 games after that they would need us to **** up 3 of them just to get back on level terms and most likely not drop anymore points at all. Their fixture list is pretty tough and contains 3 of the top 6. So if they go into that period needing us to slip up and they need to win will create huge pressure on fat sam and west ham. So really I think IF us and Reading win tomorrow we are up. A draw would be good but promotion is all that matters and if the three horse race turns into a two horse race then job done imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatch Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 Hopefully a least 3 Reading players will get sent off, straight reds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Duckhunter Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 To be honest with you I actually hope Reading ****ing destroy West Ham. To me it doesn't matter if we go up as champions just that we go up. Like league one last year, we didn't win it and it doesn't really matter that we didn't. All that matters is we keep on improving. So say Reading win it would be a 4 point gap from them to West Ham and if we win our game it will be a 9 point gap (technically 10 due to our GD). With just 6 games after that they would need us to **** up 3 of them just to get back on level terms and most likely not drop anymore points at all. Their fixture list is pretty tough and contains 3 of the top 6. So if they go into that period needing us to slip up and they need to win will create huge pressure on fat sam and west ham. So really I think IF us and Reading win tomorrow we are up. A draw would be good but promotion is all that matters and if the three horse race turns into a two horse race then job done imo. I slightly favour a win for West Ham. If Reading win, what a result that will be. That will give them confidence to come and win at our place, whereas a defeat will mean 2 out of 3 losess. I also think West Ham are a better side than them. If we win Sat it's pretty much done, but if we lose I'd rather be 5 ahead of Reading, than 6 ahead of West Ham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 Obviously the best result for us is a draw,still think West Ham will win though. Hopefully it will be a feisty affair with a few red cards,preferably for players who've already seen red this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bender Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 Obviously the best result for us is a draw,still think West Ham will win though. Hopefully it will be a feisty affair with a few red cards,preferably for players who've already seen red this season. ...and both clubs get points deductions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avenue Saint Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 Would love a draw, failing that, a reading win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 ...and both clubs get points deductions. Or a massive fine that puts them both into administration before the end of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 you got to love the KUMB forum....comedy gold some times they pasted an interview with big sam...this bit makes me chuckle.. ‘Against Watford, we had 11 men, we were drawing and one guy ran down with five minutes to go and said, “F*** off back up north, you fat ****” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derry Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 Draw, West Ham win, leaves the biggest margin for error. WHU 3 points behind, Reading 5 points behind. Reading still to play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Chalet Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 In order of preference Match Abandoned due to massive fight Draw West Ham win Reading win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank's cousin Posted 30 March, 2012 Share Posted 30 March, 2012 Draw, West Ham win, leaves the biggest margin for error. WHU 3 points behind, Reading 5 points behind. Reading still to play. The best is win for us and a draw between the two - come lets show some optimism! that would mean a nie 7 points ahead of Reading and 8 ahead of Wham with 6 games to go.. could it be another 'carlsberg did football resulsts' or a 'Hamlet moment?' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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