13 Points from the Premiership

[kwsaint]

Done the sums. Given our much better goal difference than Reading and WHam, we need 13 points to be certain of promotion from the last 7 games. 4 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats. This assumes that both teams win all their games apart from when they play each other - which won't happen. Nearly there.

[Thedelldays]

that is 13 points if west hame and reading win all their games (obviously one losing the one against the other)

 

to ask them to win every game is too big an ask.

I always thought that 85 points would get you 2nd spot and promotion

 

I think we will do well to draw tomorrow night..however, this is how I see the last 7 games for us pan out.

 

wins against

pompey home

posh away

cov home

 

draw

reading home

boro away

palace away

 

lose

blackpool away

 

that is pretty mediocre form and will be plenty for auto promotion..probably enough to win the league as I will be amazed if reading win against us, brighton, leeds, west ham and brum

[The9]

Done the sums. Given our much better goal difference than Reading and WHam, we need 13 points to be certain of promotion from the last 7 games. 4 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats. This assumes that both teams win all their games apart from when they play each other - which won't happen. Nearly there.

 

As it appears you have worked out but not shared, the number of points we need depends on the West Ham v Reading match (as well as obviously every other Saints, West Ham and Reading match, the more points they drop the better for us).

 

The exact scenario is

1) West Ham beat Reading : Reading can get 91, West Ham 93.

2) Reading beat West Ham : Reading can get 94, West Ham 90.

3) Draw : Reading 92, West Ham 91.

 

We have 78 already, so we need 13 in scenario 1, 12 in scenario 2 and 13 in scenario 3.

 

There's quite a difference at this point between needing 4 wins from 7 matches and 4 wins and a draw.

 

Oh, and we need 5 points to guarantee finishing in the top 3 (and above Brighton - are they keeping up?).

[Bananaman]

I may vomit... I am both loving and hating this at the same time

['dover Saint]

Also, by winning our Reading game we can do ourselves a favour. If WH beat Reading then we beat Reading 88 points should do the business on our superior goal difference.

[John Boy Saint]

I won't be counting the Chickens until I see a Fat Lady having a gargle before running up and down through her scales!

[rick1976.4.38]

still along way to go to start saying we only need 13 points,its the squeaky bum time of the season,hopefuly the lads will take heart from last seasons promotion and stay calm and not bottle it.the reading game is the crucial one for us.coys

[SaintBobby]

The maths are interesting - but in reality, we're unlikely to need anything like as much as 13 points as it's very, very unlikely that West Ham or Reading will attain perfect records for the rest of the season (or that the loser of the WH v Reading game will win all their other games).

 

The spread markets have:

 

Saints 89.5 - 90.5 points

Reading 83.5 - 84.5 points

West Ham 83.5 - 84.5 points

 

The implication of this is, I think, that the markets predict that both West Ham and Reading will end up on 84 points.

 

In such a circumstance, Saints would only need six more points to win the division (owing to our superior goal difference).

 

That feels to me like cutting it a bit fine, so although we need 13 points to be utterly certain of going up, we would most likely achieve promotion (and win the title) with quite a lot less than that.

[Thedelldays]

here we are, sat on 78 points with 6 games to go.

 

I think we will get another 9 points (at least)

I think reading will get another 11

and west ham another 14

[sotonjoe]

12 points actually, due to our superior goal difference.

[supersonic]

If we get 7 points from this week's games I think we'll be up.

[Wurzel]

Using the BBC Predictor thingy I had us 10 points clear by the end of the season, and Pompey 15points from safety, although an element of biased may have crept into my predictions :oops:

[toofarnorth]

If we get 7 points from this week's games I think we'll be up.

 

If we get 7 more points from the rest of the season i think we'll go up.