Dr Who? Posted 26 March, 2012 Share Posted 26 March, 2012 I am just hoping, against all the odds that we are 12 points clear of 3rd come 19:15 on Saturday night. I am sick to death of looking at league tables and fixtures. I keep telling myself to enjoying it, and I was, but now we are so close. If it slipped away now it would be like the end of the world. West Ham lose against the Posh, and then Reading on Saturday. We beat Blackpool, and we will be 12 points clear of 3rd place on Saturday night, with 6 left to play! Game over! On the flip side West Ham win tomorrow and reading beat them, we lose, and then Reading and West Ham play again and win before we play the skates the table would be like this. Reading 79 points played 41 Southampton 78 points played 40 West Ham 75 points played 41 Still in the driving seat as we should beat the skates, but would be so much better if the first one come off........ .......we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golden Balls Posted 26 March, 2012 Share Posted 26 March, 2012 I think West Ham will get 4 points from those 2 games. I also think we'll draw with Blackpool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beatlesaint Posted 26 March, 2012 Share Posted 26 March, 2012 I think West Ham will beat Peterbro.......I wouldn't however like to predict what might happen when they play Reading on Saturday. We have breathing space, remember whatever happens 4 wins out of the 7 games will see us up, obviously it would be better they come sooner rather than later but you can bet Reading and West Ham would both give everything to be in our position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Garrett Posted 26 March, 2012 Share Posted 26 March, 2012 Think WHU will win tomorrow and Saturday and we won't win on Saturday...surely it can't be as straightforward as simply going up with no more twists and turns..?! (hope it does though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red Posted 26 March, 2012 Share Posted 26 March, 2012 I think West Ham will beat Peterbro.......I wouldn't however like to predict what might happen when they play Reading on Saturday. We have breathing space, remember whatever happens 4 wins out of the 7 games will see us up, obviously it would be better they come sooner rather than later but you can bet Reading and West Ham would both give everything to be in our position. And that is assuming both win all but one of their remaining games, and all of them if there is a result in Reading vs West Ham - which I just can't see (quite apart from playing each other!!). Got everything crossed!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rasiak-9- Posted 26 March, 2012 Share Posted 26 March, 2012 Put it this way, there will be at least one round of fixtures where things get worse for us; i.e we drop points and the teams below us catch up. This shouldn't however be a massive problem. The gap between us and 3rd is 6 points (assuming WHam win tomorrow). As long as the gap is at least 0 points with us having a superior GD going into the final game of the season vs the worst team in the division and we'll be fine. So, that gives us 6 games and 6 points. We can afford to have 3rd catch up on us a point per game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gigersaint Posted 27 March, 2012 Share Posted 27 March, 2012 I've given up with the BBC predictor as I keep finding I'm too pessimistic with our results despite our recent form. In recent weeks we've won where I thought we may draw or lose, and Reading and West Ham have lost or drawn where I thought they'd win! I've got to the point now where I'm almost watching games between my fingers and biting the nails off from them at the same time and relieved each time we pull yet another win out of the bag and edging ever closer back to the Premier League when Reading and West Ham drop points. Earlier in the Season it almost seemed easier to accept that we may not finish in the top two after a good run but now we are this close I'd be gutted to finish 2nd, this is what i am finding harder when watching us in the few games remaining, we've come so far and we are so close. Anything less than 1st place now having been there so long would be gutting, let alone drop into 3rd and the play offs if we should falter! I really hope we can keep going now, every goal we score and every win at the full time whistle is making me hoarser by the week, at this rate I will be happy to be speechless at the end of the season... If my nerves at the moment can hold out that long! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bender Posted 27 March, 2012 Share Posted 27 March, 2012 Wham will know that even if they draw tonight, they will go 2nd by beating Reading on Saturday. I think they'll do exactly those 2 things leaving us 5 points clear of both of them. A lot of you think we wont win at Blackpool but think of the incentive - 8 points clear of both of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
influx Posted 27 March, 2012 Share Posted 27 March, 2012 Peterborough will be well up for it. I think they may sneak a point or even more. They played **** on Saturday so im sure they will get hefty kick up the arse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 27 March, 2012 Share Posted 27 March, 2012 (edited) Peterborough will be well up for it. I think they may sneak a point or even more. They played **** on Saturday so im sure they will get hefty kick up the arse. Strange that, they beat Reading but got dicked at home by Millwall,perhaps they aren't very much at ease with big bustling crap house centre forwards like Millwall have.In that case West Ham will probably roll all over them. Edited 27 March, 2012 by Window Cleaner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ric Posted 27 March, 2012 Share Posted 27 March, 2012 (edited) We have breathing space, remember whatever happens 4 wins out of the 7 games will see us up, obviously it would be better they come sooner rather than later but you can bet Reading and West Ham would both give everything to be in our position. No, for mathematical certainty we need five wins. That would put us on 93 points. Reading can get a maximum of 94 points, and West Ham a maximum of 93. Take into account the fact that they play each other and we need 92 points to be absolutely certain of finishing second. Even if we beat Reading, another three wins on top of that wouldn't be enough as things stand to guarantee promotion. Yes, all three teams will drop points between now and the end of the season, so four wins is more than likely enough... but right now, we need to win five of the last seven to get promoted. (Or, if you want to be uber pedantic, four wins and two draws.) Edited 27 March, 2012 by Ric Uber pedantry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saints-cris Posted 27 March, 2012 Share Posted 27 March, 2012 We'll win 3 more games, taking us to 87, and that will be enough IMO. Hoepfully we'll win the next 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken Tone Posted 27 March, 2012 Share Posted 27 March, 2012 No, for mathematical certainty we need five wins. That would put us on 93 points. Reading can get a maximum of 94 points, and West Ham a maximum of 93. Take into account the fact that they play each other and we need 92 points to be absolutely certain of finishing second. Even if we beat Reading, another three wins on top of that wouldn't be enough as things stand to guarantee promotion. Yes, all three teams will drop points between now and the end of the season, so four wins is more than likely enough... but right now, we need to win five of the last seven to get promoted. (Or, if you want to be uber pedantic, four wins and two draws.) see pedg's excellent updates ,ie The Theoretical Promotion/Champions Thread Something like the 'mind the gap' thread. Aim is to update it after every relevant match. Current Saints points: 78 Current possible maximum for West Ham: 69 + 3 * 8 = 93 Current possible maximum for Reading: 73 + 3 * 7 = 94 Points needed to guarantee winning Championship: 17 (1 + 94 - 78 ) If West Ham beat Reading maximum points will be WH: 93, R: 91 If West Ham and Reading draw max points will be: WH: 91, R: 92 If West Ham lose to Reading max points will be: WH 90, R: 94 Thus beating 91 points will guarantee promotion. Points needed to guarantee promotion: 14 (1 + 91 - 78 ) (in reality our goal difference is probably worth another point but theoretically it is not relevant) Last edited by pedg; 24-03-2012 at 05:01 PM. Reason: updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Garrett Posted 27 March, 2012 Share Posted 27 March, 2012 If we win 4 with one of them bring Reading...we'll be on 90. If Reading win all other games they'll be on 91 and WHU will be on 90 if they win all but Reading. If WHU beat Reading they can get 93 with Reading only able to get 88. So either way, with our goal difference 4 wins, including beating Reading at home should be enough....BUT I'm pretty certain neither Reading or WHU will win every game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ric Posted 27 March, 2012 Share Posted 27 March, 2012 see pedg's excellent updates ,ie Which is exactly the calculations I made: 14 points means four wins and two draws - or five wins to keep it simple. Four wins on their own, whether or not we beat Reading, is only 12 points and is therefore not enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Garrett Posted 27 March, 2012 Share Posted 27 March, 2012 It will be enough though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ric Posted 27 March, 2012 Share Posted 27 March, 2012 It will be enough though. Of course - in fact, we probably won't even need four wins. Both Reading and West Ham will drop points (beyond the match on the 31st). West Ham have yet to play Birmingham, Brighton and Leicester. Reading have yet to play Leeds, Brighton, Birmingham and us. Between the three of us there will be a lot of points dropped between now and the end of the season. But I'm not happy with "probably" - I firmly believe that we're going up, and I'm fairly confident that we'll win the league. But until it's signed, sealed and delivered I'm not counting any chickens. The five wins we need can't come soon enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 27 March, 2012 Share Posted 27 March, 2012 so, 14 more points assuming reading and west ham win all their games (with one of them losing one of course)..? not going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super_Uwe Posted 27 March, 2012 Share Posted 27 March, 2012 The Blackpool game is especially hard to predict as they have been dreadfully inconsistent all year (only two teams have let in more goals away from home, but on the flip side only Saints have scored more overall than them). As rightly pointed out on the Football League Show at the weekend, their defending against Reading was nothing short of abysmal; not what you would expect from a team near the top. They still have a lot of dangerous players in their side though, a draw away from home would be more than decent IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Who? Posted 27 March, 2012 Author Share Posted 27 March, 2012 Blah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red Posted 28 March, 2012 Share Posted 28 March, 2012 so, 14 more points assuming reading and west ham win all their games (with one of them losing one of course)..? not going to happen what's not going to happen? Us getting 14 more points, or WH / Reading winning all their games (not both obviously)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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