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The Theoretical Promotion/Champions Thread

pedg

By pedg,
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SaintBobby

SaintBobby

Posted
Posted
That's not right is it, if West Ham beat Reading, Reading's maximum is reduced to 73+6x3=91 so we need 13 points to go up counting on our GD.

 

Agreed.

 

I also can't see how Reading can get to 95 or 97 points.

 

They can get to 94 if they beat West Ham, 92 if they draw with West Ham and 91 if they lose to West Ham.

 

I also agree that we can't count our GD as an extra half point. If we are tied with either W Ham or Reading on points, it is a racing certainty that our goal difference is superior (if not 100%, then well above 99.99%....so 100% unless you want to measure things to about 20 decimal points). So you can reduce the OP's original calculations in terms of points needed (to get promoted or win the division) by 1 point.

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Brizzie Saints

Brizzie Saints

Posted
Posted

As of This morning

 

[TABLE]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl66][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD=class: xl74, width: 64]Played[/TD]

[TD=class: xl74, width: 64]Remain[/TD]

[TD=class: xl74, width: 64]Curr Pts[/TD]

[TD=class: xl74, width: 64]Max pts[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl75]1[/TD]

[TD=class: xl70]Saints[/TD]

[TD=class: xl70, align: right]39[/TD]

[TD=class: xl70, align: right]7[/TD]

[TD=class: xl70, align: right]78[/TD]

[TD=class: xl71, align: right]99[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl76]2[/TD]

[TD=class: xl72]Reading[/TD]

[TD=class: xl72, align: right]39[/TD]

[TD=class: xl72, align: right]7[/TD]

[TD=class: xl72, align: right]73[/TD]

[TD=class: xl73, align: right]94[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl77]3[/TD]

[TD=class: xl68]West H[/TD]

[TD=class: xl68, align: right]39[/TD]

[TD=class: xl68, align: right]7[/TD]

[TD=class: xl68, align: right]72[/TD]

[TD=class: xl68, align: right]93[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl77]4[/TD]

[TD=class: xl68]Birmingham[/TD]

[TD=class: xl68, align: right]39[/TD]

[TD=class: xl68, align: right]7[/TD]

[TD=class: xl68, align: right]63[/TD]

[TD=class: xl68, align: right]84[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl77]5[/TD]

[TD=class: xl68]Middlesbrough[/TD]

[TD=class: xl68, align: right]39[/TD]

[TD=class: xl68, align: right]7[/TD]

[TD=class: xl68, align: right]62[/TD]

[TD=class: xl68, align: right]83[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl78]6[/TD]

[TD=class: xl69]Brighton[/TD]

[TD=class: xl69, align: right]39[/TD]

[TD=class: xl69, align: right]7[/TD]

[TD=class: xl69, align: right]62[/TD]

[TD=class: xl69, align: right]83[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl66]7[/TD]

[TD]Blackpool[/TD]

[TD=align: right]39[/TD]

[TD=align: right]7[/TD]

[TD=align: right]60[/TD]

[TD=align: right]81[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl66]8[/TD]

[TD]Cardiff[/TD]

[TD=align: right]39[/TD]

[TD=align: right]7[/TD]

[TD=align: right]60[/TD]

[TD=align: right]81[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl66]9[/TD]

[TD]Hull[/TD]

[TD=align: right]39[/TD]

[TD=align: right]7[/TD]

[TD=align: right]58[/TD]

[TD=align: right]79[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl66]10[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67]Leeds[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, align: right]39[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, align: right]7[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, align: right]57[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, align: right]78[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl66]11[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67]leicester[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, align: right]39[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, align: right]7[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, align: right]56[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, align: right]77[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

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Saint Thomas

Saint Thomas

Posted
Posted

According to my BBC predictor skills, we're in to win the title by the closest amount;

 

Saints - 87 points

Pompey (H) - Win

Palace (A) - Draw

Reading (H) - Draw

Peterborough (A) - Draw

Middlesborough (A) - Lose

Coventry (H) - Win

 

Reading - 87 points

Leeds (H) - Win

Brighton (A) - Draw

Saints (A) - Draw

Forest (H) - Win

Palace (H) - Win

Birmingham (A) - Lose

 

West Ham - 86 points

Barnsley (A) - Win

Birmingham (H) - Draw

Brighton (H) - Draw

Bristol City (A) - Win

Leicester (A) - Win

Hull (H) - Win

 

And I think that's being rather pessimistic - we'll do this somehow!

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Professor

Professor

Posted
Posted (edited)

Before the Good Friday games:-

[TABLE]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl66][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD=class: xl74, width: 64]Played[/TD]

[TD=class: xl74, width: 64]Remain[/TD]

[TD=class: xl74, width: 64]Curr Pts[/TD]

[TD=class: xl74, width: 64]Max pts[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl75]1[/TD]

[TD=class: xl70]Saints[/TD]

[TD=class: xl70, align: right]40[/TD]

[TD=class: xl70, align: right]6[/TD]

[TD=class: xl70, align: right]78[/TD]

[TD=class: xl71, align: right]96[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl76]2[/TD]

[TD=class: xl72]Reading[/TD]

[TD=class: xl72, align: right]40[/TD]

[TD=class: xl72, align: right]6[/TD]

[TD=class: xl72, align: right]76[/TD]

[TD=class: xl73, align: right]94[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl77]3[/TD]

[TD=class: xl68]West H[/TD]

[TD=class: xl68, align: right]40[/TD]

[TD=class: xl68, align: right]6[/TD]

[TD=class: xl68, align: right]72[/TD]

[TD=class: xl68, align: right]90[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl77]4[/TD]

[TD=class: xl68]Birmingham[/TD]

[TD=class: xl68, align: right]40[/TD]

[TD=class: xl68, align: right]6[/TD]

[TD=class: xl68, align: right]66[/TD]

[TD=class: xl68, align: right]84[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl77]5[/TD]

[TD=class: xl68]Middlesbrough[/TD]

[TD=class: xl68, align: right]40[/TD]

[TD=class: xl68, align: right]6[/TD]

[TD=class: xl68, align: right]63[/TD]

[TD=class: xl68, align: right]81[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl78]6[/TD]

[TD=class: xl69]Brighton[/TD]

[TD=class: xl69, align: right]40[/TD]

[TD=class: xl69, align: right]6[/TD]

[TD=class: xl69, align: right]63[/TD]

[TD=class: xl69, align: right]81[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

Acknowledgement to Brizzle Saints

Edited by Professor
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Professor

Professor

Posted
Posted

The Saints v Reading game is a major obstacle for us both but not necessarilpy a title decider. If either club wins all 6 remaining games they will be champions and deservedly so, but it is more likely that both of us will drop a few points. Our 2 point lead and a GD that is very unlikely to be bettered gives us a 3 point advantage that still aakes Saints' most people's favourites because we can afford more of a slippage than Reading can. If we win the game against Reading, our buffer becomes a virtually unassailable 5 points +GD (based on the pre-Easter totals) whereas if Reading win against us, their advantage on the same basis is one point and still vulnerable to any slip. But the fact that most of us are now looking at a 2-horse race confirms that very few people believe we will not be promoted, even if we can't claim it until the maths are absolute.

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kpturner

kpturner

Posted
Posted
But the fact that most of us are now looking at a 2-horse race confirms that very few people believe we will not be promoted, even if we can't claim it until the maths are absolute.
Are we? By Sunday we could potentially be second and only 3 clear of West Ham. Hardly a 2 horse race yet.
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pedg

pedg

Posted
  • Author
Posted
Thanks, the only question I have is, how are we going to get 16 points from 5 games so that we can guarantee winning the Championship?

 

Got me there! I will change it for now to just points for promotion and hope the Reading result tomorrow means points for championship can be reintroduced!

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pedg

pedg

Posted
  • Author
Posted
Got me there! I will change it for now to just points for promotion and hope the Reading result tomorrow means points for championship can be reintroduced!

 

updated for Saint's result. Also realised we can set a points for the championship target as winning all remaining games including against Reading would guarantee us top spot.

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Ken Tone

Ken Tone

Posted
Posted
updated for Saint's result. Also realised we can set a points for the championship target as winning all remaining games including against Reading would guarantee us top spot.

 

Thanks pedg. Bumping this again. Why it is not a sticky I can't understand.

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Lazlo78

Lazlo78

Posted
Posted
Well yep, but it'll take something spectacular for that to be wiped out now.

 

You could say though that in order for West Ham to pick up six more points than us over the next four games their GD could improve drastically in relation to ours. So 7 points to be sure, 6 is most likely enough...

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S-Clarke

S-Clarke

Posted
Posted
You could say though that in order for West Ham to pick up six more points than us over the next four games their GD could improve drastically in relation to ours. So 7 points to be sure, 6 is most likely enough...

 

But then that would also require us to lose all of our games.

 

Have some faith! There will still be twits and turns, I'm sure of it - but we're almost there now.

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Lazlo78

Lazlo78

Posted
Posted
But then that would also require us to lose all of our games.

 

Have some faith! There will still be twits and turns, I'm sure of it - but we're almost there now.

 

I absolutely agree that it is unthinkable - just saying that in case they catch our points total, we would have been playing so badly that they might have caught up on our GD too...

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pedg

pedg

Posted
  • Author
Posted

It is very hard to stop ones self enumerating ones Gallus gallus domesticus's over the goal difference. I think another set of games with it staying at the same level and I will feel more secure in its advantage. Strangely its good that both our and West Ham's games are home games.

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The9

The9

Posted
Posted
Something like the 'mind the gap' thread. Aim is to update it after every relevant match.

 

Current Saints points: 82

 

Current possible maximum for West Ham: 76 + 3 * 4 = 88

Current possible maximum for Reading: 79 + 3 * 5 = 94

 

Points needed to guarantee being Champions: 12 (as this would mean we would get 3 points off Reading)

 

Points needed to guarantee promotion: 7 (1 + 88 - 82 )

 

(in reality our goal difference is probably worth another point but that advantage has been going down so we should not be counting on)

 

I'd say we need 3 wins from 4 matches to guarantee the title provided one of them is against Reading (as the difference is already +10 and it's extremely unlikely they will be able to catch up that swing in GD in one match). So we get 9 points to get to 91, but as we beat them, Reading can only get 91.

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The9

The9

Posted
Posted
I absolutely agree that it is unthinkable - just saying that in case they catch our points total, we would have been playing so badly that they might have caught up on our GD too...

 

For WH to win 2 more than us and GD to work in their favour, each win or defeat swing would have to be on average by 2 goals. We don't have to be playing badly to lose, but we have to be playing pretty badly to regularly lose by 2 goals three times (and West Ham still have to find a 7 goal swing on their side even then).

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SaintBobby

SaintBobby

Posted
Posted

In my view, the GD is now nailed on.

 

I just can't see how we end up equal on points with West Ham, but behind on goal difference. (if we lose all our remaining games and West Ham win all their games, they might catch our GD - but at that point, our problem is points not goal difference!)

 

As an extra buffer, we have many more goals scored. So even if we ended up on the same points and the same GD as West Ham (a 10,000,000/1 shot), we'd still almost certainly beat them on goals scored.

 

So, the chance that we will end up on the same points as West Ham, but end up one place behind them is something like 10,000,000,000/1.

 

These odds are so small as to be disregarded. It is measurably more likely that some ghastly incident or terrorist attack on St. Mary's will derail us than to even consider this mathematical near-impossibility.

 

Back in the real world:

 

1. 6 more points (88 in total) guarantees promotion. For each point West Ham drop in their next four games, this falls by a point.

2. To win the division, we need to "keep pace" with Reading. With the slight advantage that we have 3 points and they have a game in hand. (and also that they have to play us at home)

 

Most likely, Saints are nearly nailed on to get an auto-slot, with Friday's game being nearly a title-decider. (but a draw measurably favouring Saints' chances and a Southampton loss being more recoverable by Saints than a Royals loss would be recoverable by Reading).

 

Even if we lost all of our remaining games, I'd put our chances of promotion at nearly 50%.

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Lazlo78

Lazlo78

Posted
Posted
For WH to win 2 more than us and GD to work in their favour, each win or defeat swing would have to be on average by 2 goals. We don't have to be playing badly to lose, but we have to be playing pretty badly to regularly lose by 2 goals three times (and West Ham still have to find a 7 goal swing on their side even then).

 

I know, I know, I can only meekly respond with the old trusty "I only worry because I'm a Saints supporter and we are used to f*cking up" which might have been apt 3 years ago but really should be put to rest now ;)

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Ken Tone

Ken Tone

Posted
Posted
For WH to win 2 more than us and GD to work in their favour, each win or defeat swing would have to be on average by 2 goals. We don't have to be playing badly to lose, but we have to be playing pretty badly to regularly lose by 2 goals three times (and West Ham still have to find a 7 goal swing on their side even then).

 

 

 

Don't forget that in gaining those 6 points our goal difference would have improved by a MINIMUM of 2 more goals, leaving us at least 13 above west hamss gd, with them having to beat that in 4 wins and 2 defeats for us. So we'd need to lose quite badly , AND them win by quite large margins.

 

If we win 2 more by better than the odd goals, then our position gets even stronger

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