pedg Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 (edited) Something like the 'mind the gap' thread. Aim is to update it after every relevant match. Current Saints points: 85 Current possible maximum for West Ham: 80 + 3 * 2 = 86 Points needed to guarantee promotion: 2 (1 + 86 - 85 ) (in reality our goal difference is probably worth another point but that advantage has been going down so we should not be counting on) Edited 17 April, 2012 by pedg updated 17/04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colinjb Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 Absolute proof that 6 wins from 8 equals promotion, 3 in 4. Our ratio through the season is 2 in 3. It would take a big crash in form to stop us now. (Touch wood.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saints-cris Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 I think we'll get wins against Donny, Pompey, Coventry, Boro and Palace/P'boro (1 of these 2) That will be easily enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Garrett Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 And if we beat Reading is it only 5 wins we need? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nexstar Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 And if we beat Reading is it only 5 wins we need? I guess that will alter after the Hammers/Reading result next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pedg Posted 21 March, 2012 Author Share Posted 21 March, 2012 I guess that will alter after the Hammers/Reading result next weekend Things will become a lot clearer after the WH/Reading match (well it will make the calculations easier anyway!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S-Clarke Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 You can almost smell the premiership now, it's so close - but it's also still so far away if you get what I mean. 8 games can change a hell of a lot. We're well in the driving seat, more so than I ever thought we would be a few weeks ago. I was saying that 80 pts would do it a few months back, but that was before Reading went on their run. I would say 85 should get you automatic promotion, because the teams aren't going to win all their remaining games (such as we won't). As good as it feels today, there will be some moments in the next few weeks which make us all doubt again....but let's be honest, we can win all of our home games, pick up the odd away win and lose the rest. That should be enough. COYR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deano6 Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 Absolute proof that 6 wins from 8 equals promotion, 3 in 4. Our ratio through the season is 2 in 3. It would take a big crash in form to stop us now. (Touch wood.) You do realise that 2 in 3 (67%) is less than 3 in 4 (75%) right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lighthouse Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 And if we beat Reading is it only 5 wins we need? Correct. In the worst case scenario, with Reading beating Wham and both teams winning all their other games we'd need to beat Reading and 4 others to guarantee promotion. If Wham beat Reading, we'd just need to win all our home games and lose all our away games to guarantee promotion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stepgar Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 Don't like this thread at all. Makes me very nervous. Although I appreciate that all signs look good for us to go up hopefully as champions but...........I am too suspicious when t comes to things like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corsacar saint Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 No easy games left,the bottom 3 are all fighting to stay up.Blackpool and Middlesboro are both aiming for the play offs.Peterboro have beaten both Blackpool and Reading 3-1 at home, Reading we will have to be on top of our game to win,Palace have nothing to play for,but could still be dangerous. The way we are playing we should fear no one and I do not think that there is any chance that Nigel will allow any complacency,it is in our hands,but we definately have no easy games left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexsaint Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 we definately have no easy games left. Nor do Reading and WHam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raging Bull Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 Nor do Reading and WHam No there aren't however Middlesbrough may well rest a few key players for our game with them with the play off's in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tttdcs Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 Don't like this thread at all. Makes me very nervous. Although I appreciate that all signs look good for us to go up hopefully as champions but...........I am too suspicious when t comes to things like this. +1 !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 And if we beat Reading is it only 5 wins we need? For promotion, if we beat Reading: If WH lose to R the maximum points are WH 92 R 91 so we would need 92 to be certain which is 17 more than now so we would need 4 wins plus beating Reading plus 2 draws. If WH draw with R the maximum points are WH 93 R 89 so we would need 90 to be certain which is 15 more than now so we would need 4 wins plus beating Reading. If WH beat with R the maximum points are WH 95 R 88 so we would need 89 to be certain which is 14 more than now so we would need 3 wins plus beating Reading plus 2 draws. My head hurts. I used to do all this when we were bottom of the Premiership. This makes a nice change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torsaint Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 Don't forget massive GD means we need only be equal to second club so 90 89 or 88 would do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cestrian Saint Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 I'll put money on us finishing 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 I'll put money on us finishing 3rd. give it to a charity then, it'll be better used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sotonian Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 3 wins and 2 draws will see us promoted, 86 points will be enough, we will do that easily!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 3 wins and 2 draws will see us promoted, 86 points will be enough, we will do that easily!! Still prefer to think of it as 5 wins myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 3 wins and 2 draws will see us promoted, 86 points will be enough, we will do that easily!! I've been thinking 87 for some time. Our goal difference might look good at the moment but it can soon be eroded, although it would need both the others to catch us and they do have to play each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 I reckon Friday 13th could be the night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VectisSaint Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 No easy games left,the bottom 3 are all fighting to stay up.Blackpool and Middlesboro are both aiming for the play offs.Peterboro have beaten both Blackpool and Reading 3-1 at home, Reading we will have to be on top of our game to win,Palace have nothing to play for,but could still be dangerous. The way we are playing we should fear no one and I do not think that there is any chance that Nigel will allow any complacency,it is in our hands,but we definately have no easy games left. Palace is potentially our hardest away game to win. They are still targetting a playoff position, please don't tink for a minute they have nothing to play for. They also have one of the best home records in terms of avoiding defeat, 2 losses at Selhurst all season (same as us, only bettered by Birmingham), and have only conceded 10 at home in 18 games. We may not lose it but anyone who thinks this is our easiest away game is seriously unaware of their form and position. Middlesbro are probably the easiest away team, their home record is not great in terms of wins, but they don't lose many either. Posh showed last night that they are still very good at home, but inconsistent. If you offered me 4 points from our 4 away games now I would bite your hand off.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pedg Posted 24 March, 2012 Author Share Posted 24 March, 2012 Updated first post based on today's results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexsaint Posted 24 March, 2012 Share Posted 24 March, 2012 I am all tingly , it's so close you can almost believe its happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken Tone Posted 24 March, 2012 Share Posted 24 March, 2012 Something like the 'mind the gap' thread. Aim is to update it after every relevant match. Current Saints points: 78 Current possible maximum for West Ham: 69 + 3 * 8 = 93 Current possible maximum for Reading: 73 + 3 * 7 = 94 Points needed to guarantee winning Championship: 17 (1 + 94 - 78 ) If West Ham beat Reading maximum points will be WH: 93, R: 91 If West Ham and Reading draw max points will be: WH: 91, R: 92 If West Ham lose to Reading max points will be: WH 90, R: 94 Thus beating 91 points will guarantee promotion. Points needed to guarantee promotion: 14 (1 + 91 - 78 ) (in reality our goal difference is probably worth another point but theoretically it is not relevant) Bumping this. Ought to be a sticky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 24 March, 2012 Share Posted 24 March, 2012 Is it safe to build in to the equation that we will finish with a superior goal difference to both West Ham and Reading? It's not a mathematical certainty of course, but seems pretty much nailed on. If we're going to consider circumstances in which we're caught on Goal Difference, we may as well consider circumstances where we get some strange points deduction for some highly obscure reason. So, I'd say that 16 more points guarantees us the Championship and 13 more points guarantees us promotion - not 17 and 14 as you have it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saintalan Posted 24 March, 2012 Share Posted 24 March, 2012 If West Ham lose to Reading max points will be: WH 90 ...and theoretically they lose to PeterBoro before then and lose to Barnsley on April 6 their max would be 84 therefor if we were to beat Blackpool and then P****y on April 7, barring goal diff and others below catching us that would be enough;-)) All theoretical, of course, I think - arghhh now my head hurts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pedg Posted 24 March, 2012 Author Share Posted 24 March, 2012 Is it safe to build in to the equation that we will finish with a superior goal difference to both West Ham and Reading? It's not a mathematical certainty of course, but seems pretty much nailed on. If we're going to consider circumstances in which we're caught on Goal Difference, we may as well consider circumstances where we get some strange points deduction for some highly obscure reason. So, I'd say that 16 more points guarantees us the Championship and 13 more points guarantees us promotion - not 17 and 14 as you have it here. I think, as I said, in reality we can probably take 1 point off each because of the goal difference but I was trying to stick to the 'what could happen in theory' rules rather than the 'what might happen in practice' route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 24 March, 2012 Share Posted 24 March, 2012 I think, as I said, in reality we can probably take 1 point off each because of the goal difference but I was trying to stick to the 'what could happen in theory' rules rather than the 'what might happen in practice' route. Well, in theory, there could be an on-the-pitch punch up at the Pompey game and both teams get docked 2 points. The chances are tiny, but if we're going to include the infintesimallly microscopic chance of our GD being overhauled, we might as well include all such off-the-scale improbabilities. As a matter of interest, would you have said going into the Walsall game on the final game of last season that we needed a draw to guarantee going up? (technically we did, because if we'd lost and Huddersfield had won 14-0 or something mental, we'd have slipped to third). Once you start factoring in chances that have a smaller chance than us all dying in an all-out thermonuclear war before the end of the season, I wonder how practical and useful the calculations really are? (Don't get me wrong, I love these nerdy mathematical threads, just think you've made a way too cautious assumption in your reasoning) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lighthouse Posted 24 March, 2012 Share Posted 24 March, 2012 Current points needed to guarantee promotion is 14, but it could be 8 before we've even kicked another ball. A bit of a long shot but possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 24 March, 2012 Share Posted 24 March, 2012 Current points needed to guarantee promotion is 14, but it could be 8 before we've even kicked another ball. A bit of a long shot but possible. Is that right? If West Ham lose their next two games, they could still get to a total of 87 points, no? Meaning we'd need 9 more (if you count our GD as uncatchable) or 10 more if you don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lighthouse Posted 24 March, 2012 Share Posted 24 March, 2012 (edited) Is that right? If West Ham lose their next two games, they could still get to a total of 87 points, no? Meaning we'd need 9 more (if you count our GD as uncatchable) or 10 more if you don't. Sorry, you're right, my logic was flawed. I don't get exactly how, it's actually got me in a complete mind f**k now. Surely if West Ham drop 6 points we need 6 less, but apparently not... Edit, actually I've got it now. Edited 24 March, 2012 by Lighthouse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 24 March, 2012 Share Posted 24 March, 2012 Sorry, you're right, my logic was flawed. Damn you...you had me toasting almost certain promotion there for a moment ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pedg Posted 24 March, 2012 Author Share Posted 24 March, 2012 Sorry, you're right, my logic was flawed. I don't get exactly how, it's actually got me in a complete mind f**k now. Surely if West Ham drop 6 points we need 6 less, but apparently not... Its the confusion based on the fact that at the moment we obviously don't know the result of the west ham v reading match. We know one of them will lose points but not which. However because we know some points will be dropped we can lower the minimum we need to beat the highest lowest (I can see this might not help...) from the possible results. It will hopefully all be a lot clearer after tuesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pedg Posted 24 March, 2012 Author Share Posted 24 March, 2012 Well, in theory, there could be an on-the-pitch punch up at the Pompey game and both teams get docked 2 points. The chances are tiny, but if we're going to include the infintesimallly microscopic chance of our GD being overhauled, we might as well include all such off-the-scale improbabilities. As a matter of interest, would you have said going into the Walsall game on the final game of last season that we needed a draw to guarantee going up? (technically we did, because if we'd lost and Huddersfield had won 14-0 or something mental, we'd have slipped to third). Once you start factoring in chances that have a smaller chance than us all dying in an all-out thermonuclear war before the end of the season, I wonder how practical and useful the calculations really are? (Don't get me wrong, I love these nerdy mathematical threads, just think you've made a way too cautious assumption in your reasoning) Possibly I should be more specific and say my figures assume that points will only be obtained via the normal route of winning or drawing matches and that none of the 3 teams at the top will lose points for any reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 24 March, 2012 Share Posted 24 March, 2012 Possibly I should be more specific and say my figures assume that points will only be obtained via the normal route of winning or drawing matches and that none of the 3 teams at the top will lose points for any reason. You've been very specific. I just think it's nuts to assume there is any plausible scenario in which we end up level on points with West Ham and/or Reading but falling behind them owing to goal difference. It really is a 1,000,000 to 1 chance or even wilder. The truth is that our chance of being promoted if we get 91 points is 100%. If we get 90 points, it's 99.9999999999999999999999% The truth is that our chance of winning the league if we get 95 points is 100%. If we get 94 points, it's 99.99999999999999999999% I just don't think it's worth worrying about that 0.000000000000000000001 % chance. You're best to just round down the points we need (to 94 and 90) rather than worry about being utterly certain to the twentieth decimal point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suewhistle Posted 24 March, 2012 Share Posted 24 March, 2012 It will hopefully all be a lot clearer after tuesday! I bloomin' well hope so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Paul C Posted 25 March, 2012 Share Posted 25 March, 2012 We just need to match Reading's points over the next few games and we're there... Wet Spam blown their load and will get knocked out in the first round of play-off matches which is going to be very enjoyable to watch. Saints, Reading and either Boro or B'pool for promotion. Exciting isn't it... :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bender Posted 25 March, 2012 Share Posted 25 March, 2012 Lets just seewhat happens next week. West Ham could be 3 points behind us before we play next. That said, we could be going into the BPool game knowing a win puts us 12 pts clear of 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Without a Halo Posted 25 March, 2012 Share Posted 25 March, 2012 I prefer to compare where we are now against what we did last season Last season P W D L F A GD PTS Last Season 46 28 8 10 86 38 48 92 This Season (so far) 39 23 9 7 72 35 37 78 5 wins out of 7 with a plus 11 goal difference will see us better lasts seasons tally by one point as well as almost certainly see us go up as champions (I am sure 87 points will be enough but would like to at least match last season) So wins at Peterborough & Palace as well as home Coventry and Poopey would see as needing one more win from Reading, Middlesborough and Blackpool to beat last years totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 25 March, 2012 Share Posted 25 March, 2012 just watching Ciisse, Ba and ben arfa tear WBA a new one..... GULP!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 25 March, 2012 Share Posted 25 March, 2012 just watching Ciisse, Ba and ben arfa tear WBA a new one..... GULP!!! Let's hope they don't feel any need to make a bid for Lambert then! If we do go up, I think there are about 12 teams who could get relegated from the PL next year. Newcastle aren't one of them, but WBA are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Fan CaM Posted 25 March, 2012 Share Posted 25 March, 2012 I think given other results that will go our way, we will need three wins and a draw to clinch promotion. Four wins and a draw could well be enough for the title, but probably five wins. However, we will bottle it now and blow the lead, crashing out of the playoffs in the 1st round. (; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brizzie Saints Posted 26 March, 2012 Share Posted 26 March, 2012 (edited) We now cannot finish lower than leeds (78pts) in 10th spot Did my prediction for the remaining games Best case 5 wins 17 points Worse case 2 wins & a draw 7 points So i reckon we'll end up with 12 more on top of 78 = 90 points, should be enough for auto but maybe not top spot. Wotever happens.............its gonna be tense and f*cking exciting.......as long as we make it. Gonna miss this league tho if we do go up. Edited 26 March, 2012 by Brizzie Saints Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pedg Posted 27 March, 2012 Author Share Posted 27 March, 2012 only update from West Ham match is the calculation for west ham's maximum points. All else remains as was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWY Posted 28 March, 2012 Share Posted 28 March, 2012 Good work pedg. Once Saturdays games are completed it will be a bit easier for you mate with no more West Ham/Reading match to factor in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandwichsaint Posted 28 March, 2012 Share Posted 28 March, 2012 If WH beat R the maximums move to WH 93 R94 .... we would need 16 points to win, 15 to go up If R beat WH the maximums move to WH 90 R97 .... we would need 19 points to win, 12 to go up If R draw with WH the maximums move to WH 91 R95 .... we would need 17 points to win, 13 to go up Bigger 'ifs', if R beat WH and Saints beat Reading maximums move to WH 90 R94 .... we would need 16 points to win, 12 to go up (from 6 games) (All assuming the GD doesn't turn round, it's not impossible to have a 14 goal swing over 7 games but those results would also likely affect the points totals as well. I think we can safely say that it is 'unlikely' to go down to GD, but pedantically speaking we can't 'guarantee' that GD won't come into it.) In terms of going up - we could do with a draw or a Reading win, in terms of winning it we could do with WH winning! In reality it's totally in our own hands, FWIW I expect us to win on Saturday (which would be massive). A totally professional performance last Saturday and I expect NA to continue to CTC and for him and the team to close the season out just like we did last year. COYRs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 28 March, 2012 Share Posted 28 March, 2012 If WH beat R the maximums move to WH 93 R94 .... we would need 16 points to win, 15 to go up If R beat WH the maximums move to WH 90 R97 .... we would need 19 points to win, 12 to go up If R draw with WH the maximums move to WH 91 R95 .... we would need 17 points to win, 13 to go up Bigger 'ifs', if R beat WH and Saints beat Reading maximums move to WH 90 R94 .... we would need 16 points to win, 12 to go up (from 6 games) (All assuming the GD doesn't turn round, it's not impossible to have a 14 goal swing over 7 games but those results would also likely affect the points totals as well. I think we can safely say that it is 'unlikely' to go down to GD, but pedantically speaking we can't 'guarantee' that GD won't come into it.) In terms of going up - we could do with a draw or a Reading win, in terms of winning it we could do with WH winning! In reality it's totally in our own hands, FWIW I expect us to win on Saturday (which would be massive). A totally professional performance last Saturday and I expect NA to continue to CTC and for him and the team to close the season out just like we did last year. COYRs! What's CTC mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 28 March, 2012 Share Posted 28 March, 2012 If WH beat R the maximums move to WH 93 R94 .... we would need 16 points to win, 15 to go up If R beat WH the maximums move to WH 90 R97 .... we would need 19 points to win, 12 to go up If R draw with WH the maximums move to WH 91 R95 .... we would need 17 points to win, 13 to go up Bigger 'ifs', if R beat WH and Saints beat Reading maximums move to WH 90 R94 .... we would need 16 points to win, 12 to go up (from 6 games) (All assuming the GD doesn't turn round, it's not impossible to have a 14 goal swing over 7 games but those results would also likely affect the points totals as well. I think we can safely say that it is 'unlikely' to go down to GD, but pedantically speaking we can't 'guarantee' that GD won't come into it.) In terms of going up - we could do with a draw or a Reading win, in terms of winning it we could do with WH winning! In reality it's totally in our own hands, FWIW I expect us to win on Saturday (which would be massive). A totally professional performance last Saturday and I expect NA to continue to CTC and for him and the team to close the season out just like we did last year. COYRs! That's not right is it, if West Ham beat Reading, Reading's maximum is reduced to 73+6x3=91 so we need 13 points to go up counting on our GD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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