Colinjb Posted 20 March, 2012 Share Posted 20 March, 2012 7 wins from 8. That is the confirmed achievable (?) recipe for success. But we've got to do it first people! We are putting in the work, Nige' is drilling the players to keep their feet grounded but let's not fall into the trap of Wham and jeer or boo if expectations are not met. 8 games people, let's rally and push the team over the line. They need us and we need them to perform, let's control the controlables, starting with ourselves..... .....After the hangovers tomorrow morning anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_clark Posted 20 March, 2012 Share Posted 20 March, 2012 Win our home games and we're up as Champions, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lighthouse Posted 20 March, 2012 Share Posted 20 March, 2012 Given West Ham and Reading still have to play each other, I think it might be less. If West Ham win their game in hand, we're 5 poinst clear of 3rd. If we lost to Reading and Wham won their fixture, we're still 2 points clear of 3rd. If we lose the fixture when Wham and Reading play each other, we're STILL in the top 2 whatever happens. That's the worst case scenario, so if we were to win the other 6 fixtures and lose those 2, we're still guaranteed promotion. If we beat Reading... If Wham won their game in hand - 8 points above 3rd Reading beat Wham (worst case scenario if we beat Royals) and we lose same weekend - 7 points clear of 3rd, equal games played. So 5 wins (including the one against Reading) would see us up. This assumes Reading and West Ham both win ALL the other games, as well as the above mentioned worst case scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colinjb Posted 21 March, 2012 Author Share Posted 21 March, 2012 Given West Ham and Reading still have to play each other, I think it might be less. The scary possibility of us needing to win 3/4 of our remaining games to go up. We are currently just shy of a 2/3 ratio of wins. It's agonisingly close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BARCELONASAINT Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 I still think this will go to the wire, there are more twists and turns to come. Nothing wrong with believing we can do it but lets not fall into the trap of over confidence, this is Saints after all I think Nigel is doing a fantastic job keeping the team focused and grounded. We can only concentrate on our games and not what our opposition are doing. The golden goose is tantalizingly close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Jim Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 Readings next 5 games will determine their future and possibley ours - Blackpool H WetSpam A Leeds H Brighton A Saints A I think on thing is for certain, there will be dropped points for Reading in the next 5 games (can not see them winning all of these games) and we have to capitalise when they do. Ideally I'd love them to lose to Blackpool, beat WetSpam, draw to Leeds, draw to Brighton lose to Saints but I think they'll lose 1, draw 2 and win 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkish Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 Win 4 of our last eight means Reading need to win 6 of their last 8 to overtake us and West Ham 7 of their 9. With them having to play each other yet that is on game where one or both will lose points already. 4 wins will be enough for the title. We could as good as seal promotion if we beat Reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ludgershallsaint Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 4 home games left and we play the bottom three and one of our rivals. We couldn't ask for a better run in at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shurlock Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 4 home games left and we play the bottom three and one of our rivals. We couldn't ask for a better run in at home. Tho they all have something to play for... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iansums Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 92pts total so 17pts more will do it, assuming that our GD remains better than WHam or Reading. 6 wins or 5 wins and 2 draws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 Yes it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 92pts total so 17pts more will do it, assuming that our GD remains better than WHam or Reading. 6 wins or 5 wins and 2 draws. It's a maximum of 16 points required (with a better GD) if Reading beat West Ham. And lower still if we beat Reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
70's Mike Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 until the fat lady sings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alpine_saint Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 Lets beat Doncaster first, eh ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 I know it's unlikely, but if we win our next 2 and West Ham lose the next 4 (all played before Pompey), we can seal promotion with a win against Pompey..... just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandwichsaint Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 Is this right? If WH beat Reading they could reach 95, Reading would be capped on 91, we would need 16 points for second (assuming our GD stays superior). If Reading beat WH they can reach 94, WH would be capped on 92, we would need 17 points (+GD). If WH/Reading draw they can reach 93+92, we would need 17 points +GD. If Saints and WH beat Reading, Reading are capped at 88, we would need 13 points (+GD) Worse case is that 6 wins guarantees us promotion: all of the above assumes Reading and WH win all their remaining games, unlikely on current form and looking at their remaining games. We would have a reasonable chance of second with another four wins .... but who's looking at second now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soggy Bottom Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 Lets beat Doncaster first, eh ? Coming down for that one, please be aware that the last games I went to were Bristol City away & Cardiff away, the unbeaten run could end on Saturday due to me being there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rtb Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 Coming down for that one, please be aware that the last games I went to were Bristol City away & Cardiff away, the unbeaten run could end on Saturday due to me being there If it's looking dodgey, can you leave at half time ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macca155 Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 12 or 13 points will do it no question. The West ham/Reading game works for Saints whatever happens. Saints are currently 1/8 to be promoted that is essentially a non bet. I would say 2 wins aganist Donny, Skates, or Blackpool and the others will give up and start fighting amongst themselves. Lets be honest the only people now who think we won't be promoted are Saints fans! Everybody else thinks it is a done deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 Is this right? If WH beat Reading they could reach 95, Reading would be capped on 91, we would need 16 points for second (assuming our GD stays superior). If Reading beat WH they can reach 94, WH would be capped on 92, we would need 17 points (+GD). If WH/Reading draw they can reach 93+92, we would need 17 points +GD. If Saints and WH beat Reading, Reading are capped at 88, we would need 13 points (+GD) Worse case is that 6 wins guarantees us promotion: all of the above assumes Reading and WH win all their remaining games, unlikely on current form and looking at their remaining games. We would have a reasonable chance of second with another four wins .... but who's looking at second now! Yup, that's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 21 March, 2012 Share Posted 21 March, 2012 12 or 13 points will do it no question. I don't know why someone would go on a thread filled with numerical facts and post something that is, at best, a dubiously-formed opinion. 88 won't be enough if we lose to Reading, they beat West Ham and West Ham win all their other matches. 12 or 13 will NOT "do it no question", there are a variety of outcomes where 12 or 13 won't be enough. "No question" means a 100% probability. That's not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david in sweden Posted 22 March, 2012 Share Posted 22 March, 2012 love Jos' comment in the (published today) interview and question about " pressure " on the players... sort of " pressure, what pressure ? " don't know what his IQ is, but his mindset is very fixed. Pressure he says, come from people on the outside. Nice one ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beancounter saint Posted 22 March, 2012 Share Posted 22 March, 2012 love Jos' comment in the (published today) interview and question about " pressure " on the players... sort of " pressure, what pressure ? " don't know what his IQ is, but his mindset is very fixed. Pressure he says, come from people on the outside. Nice one ! I guess he must be either very smart or very thick!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supersonic Posted 22 March, 2012 Share Posted 22 March, 2012 To mirror what someone else has previously said, 4 home wins and we'll be up. Reading have 4 very tough away games, I can't see them getting 12 points from them, especially now Roberts is out. West Ham's fixtures are tricky, but it all depends which WH turn up. They could go on and win all their remaining games. looking at the fixtures and the table: Doncaster H - Will be tough, fighting for their lives and have some very good players Blackpool A - another tough one, still fighting for a play-off place. Same day that WH v Reading Portsmouth H - No Comment Crystal Palace A - Nothing really to play for, very slim outside chance of making play-offs, but that dream could be over by the time we play them Reading H - Very tough, obviously depends how we are placed when game comes around and how they got on v WH. Will be tricky with or without Roberts. Peterborough A - So much of a hit and miss team it's hard to tell what will happen, they should be safe by then so hopefully won't have too much to play for. Middlesbrough A - Could be tricky as they could still be fighting for a play-off place. Bit of a hit and miss team too. Coventry H - Hopefully they'll already be down by this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan The Flames Posted 22 March, 2012 Share Posted 22 March, 2012 I don't know why someone would go on a thread filled with numerical facts and post something that is, at best, a dubiously-formed opinion. 88 won't be enough if we lose to Reading, they beat West Ham and West Ham win all their other matches. 12 or 13 will NOT "do it no question", there are a variety of outcomes where 12 or 13 won't be enough. "No question" means a 100% probability. That's not the case. 88 has been enough to come second in 5 of the last 7 seasons and first in three of them. Everyone is talking as though Reading, West Ham and us will not drop any points (apart from when they play each other); the chances of that happening is very slim. No question doesn't mean 100% probability is more of a statement of confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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