Tamesaint Posted 20 March, 2012 Share Posted 20 March, 2012 Apparently we are 1 /6 (six to one on) with Betfred to get promoted. To non gamblers that means a pretty nailed on certainty. I feel confident of promotion .... but not 1/6 confident! The same bookie has us evens for the title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindsorSaint Posted 20 March, 2012 Share Posted 20 March, 2012 Apparently we are 1 /6 (six to one on) with Betfred to get promoted. To non gamblers that means a pretty nailed on certainty. I feel confident of promotion .... but not 1/6 confident! The same bookie has us evens for the title. Makes the 20/1 I got at the start of the season look pretty good! I also have Lambert as top goal scorer at 20/1! WG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilchards Posted 20 March, 2012 Share Posted 20 March, 2012 Makes the 20/1 I got at the start of the season look pretty good! I also have Lambert as top goal scorer at 20/1! WG What are you going to do with your £42? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatch Posted 20 March, 2012 Share Posted 20 March, 2012 Makes the 20/1 I got at the start of the season look pretty good! I also have Lambert as top goal scorer at 20/1! WG aaah, thats just reminded me, I had forgotten all about that. I also had a £5 on Lambert top scorer.. Now all I need to do is remember which bookie it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Give it to Ron Posted 20 March, 2012 Share Posted 20 March, 2012 Worst bet...bloody Kauto Star last week was my banker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giordano Posted 20 March, 2012 Share Posted 20 March, 2012 I took 17/1 on betfair £50 preseason Saints to win the championship, laid half of it off got a pretty green book after 9-10 games....Nice touch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lighthouse Posted 20 March, 2012 Share Posted 20 March, 2012 1/6 with Reading and Wham breathing down our necks? Pretty crap IMO I can't see them getting many takers for that. Think I will go and stick £50 against Saints just to cover my arse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 20 March, 2012 Share Posted 20 March, 2012 1/6 with Reading and Wham breathing down our necks? Pretty crap IMO I can't see them getting many takers for that. Think I will go and stick £50 against Saints just to cover my arse. Saints,West Ham and Reading are all odds on for promotion with all the bookies.That's because they have a 2/3 chance of automatic and even then another chance via the play-offs.So 2 out of 3 are already past the post for the turf accountants so they aren't going to give decent odds on any of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 20 March, 2012 Share Posted 20 March, 2012 I'd say 1/5 or 1/6 is a bit mean, but not wildly so. It looks pretty damned certain that 2 of us, West Ham and Reading will get the automatic slots - so, on the face of it, that's a 67% chance for each club to secure promotion via 1st or 2nd place. However, of the three teams, we're in the strongest position and have the best run in - so, say, a 70%-75% chance that we get 1st or 2nd? If we fail to make the top two slots, we could still go up via the play-offs. Let's assume the play-offs are a lottery - we'd still have a 25% chance of going up via this route if we dropped to 3rd. So, seems to me like a 72.5% chance of auto promotion. A 30% chance of being in the play-offs (which we will win about 25% of the time = 7.5%). So, overall chance of promotion is 80% or 1/4 IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shurlock Posted 20 March, 2012 Share Posted 20 March, 2012 1/6 with Reading and Wham breathing down our necks? Pretty crap IMO I can't see them getting many takers for that. Think I will go and stick £50 against Saints just to cover my arse. What are the odds for us not to get promoted? Might stick a few quid on that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shurlock Posted 20 March, 2012 Share Posted 20 March, 2012 I'd say 1/5 or 1/6 is a bit mean, but not wildly so. It looks pretty damned certain that 2 of us, West Ham and Reading will get the automatic slots - so, on the face of it, that's a 67% chance for each club to secure promotion via 1st or 2nd place. However, of the three teams, we're in the strongest position and have the best run in - so, say, a 70%-75% chance that we get 1st or 2nd? If we fail to make the top two slots, we could still go up via the play-offs. Let's assume the play-offs are a lottery - we'd still have a 25% chance of going up via this route if we dropped to 3rd. So, seems to me like a 72.5% chance of auto promotion. A 30% chance of being in the play-offs (which we will win about 25% of the time = 7.5%). So, overall chance of promotion is 80% or 1/4 IMHO. Not sure it's that simple. By your reasoning, Reading and Wham -both at 1/2- are excellent value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
londonsaint1604 Posted 20 March, 2012 Share Posted 20 March, 2012 Evens for the title is quite good value I reckon. If you can get that on betfair, stick a lump on and wait til we've beaten Hull and Doncaster then lay it off at odds-on. Just like printing money :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrypward Posted 20 March, 2012 Share Posted 20 March, 2012 What are the odds on us not to get promoted? Can't access bookies from work. May stick a security bet on :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeSixty Posted 20 March, 2012 Share Posted 20 March, 2012 Worst bet? Any Jack Cork first scorer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanthemanfairoak Posted 20 March, 2012 Share Posted 20 March, 2012 What are the odds for us not to get promoted? Might stick a few quid on that too.your aload of fun sherlock? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dune Posted 20 March, 2012 Share Posted 20 March, 2012 They are indeed rubbish odds and you'd have to bet a serious amount say 600 quid to make it worthwhile. I'd want it to be a nailed on banker to bet that sort of money for that sort of return, and this ain't a nailed on banker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dronskisaint Posted 20 March, 2012 Share Posted 20 March, 2012 Dalek's odds for 17th :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giordano Posted 20 March, 2012 Share Posted 20 March, 2012 What are the odds on us not to get promoted? Can't access bookies from work. May stick a security bet on :-) odds on us getting promoted are 40/85 on betfair.... ie 2 to 1 on... NOT 6 to 1 on...that sounds just plain silly in a three horse race and it being so tight...and i would lay that if it really was available straight off.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EBS1980 Posted 20 March, 2012 Share Posted 20 March, 2012 I put £20 when we were 14/1 earlier in the season. Nice £300 if that comes in. Disapointingly my winners of each league wont come in, but wasn't far off with any league (so far), i went Man U, Leciester, Sheff U and Crawley. Only did £1 but would have got just over £600. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chez Posted 20 March, 2012 Share Posted 20 March, 2012 Connelly at 175/1 for top goalscorer. Just glad I also took Lambert (£25e/w) at 22/1. Premiership season ticket paid for. Hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alain Perrin Posted 20 March, 2012 Share Posted 20 March, 2012 I followed Dalek's advice and piled on Saints to finish 17th...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dune Posted 20 March, 2012 Share Posted 20 March, 2012 Betting on Reading and WHU because it'll make you feel better if your bet comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guan 2.0 Posted 20 March, 2012 Share Posted 20 March, 2012 I want delldays to post another accy thread (serious) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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