Dibden Purlieu Saint Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 The run in for the 3 top teams is mental, proper mental: Southampton: Millwall - A - 19th Hull - A - 6th Doncaster - H - 22nd Blackpool - A - 9th Pompey - H - 24th Palace - A - 12th Reading - H - 2nd Peterborough - A - 18th Boro - A - 4th Coventry - H - 23rd Average opponent position: 13.9 Reading: Barnsley - A - 17th Peterborough - A - 18th Blackpool - H - 9th West Ham - A - 3rd Leeds - H - 10th Brighton - A - 5th Saints - A - 1st Forest - H - 20th Palace - H - 12th Brum - A - 8th Average opponent position: 10.3 West Ham: Leeds - A - 10th Boro - H - 4th Burnley - A - 14th Peterborough - A - 18th Reading - H - 2nd Barnsley - A - 17th Brum - H - 8th Brighton - H - 5th Bristol City - A - 21st Leicester - A - 11th Hull - H - 6th Average opponent position: 10.5 Anyone else nervous? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lambertsrightleg Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 all of a sudden west ham look very, very shaky. Hardly buzzing with confidence and trips to Leeds and Burnley looming with Boro at home. I wouldn't fancy being in their shoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raging Bull Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 When you look at it like this we're all gonna drop points but Reading and Hammers look like dropping more. If we can get to the Blackpool game with maximum points I think we'll almost be untouchable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ric Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 Average opponent position is meaningless - it's more instructive to look at how many "good" teams each has to play - in which case Saints clearly have the least difficult run-in. And even that's completely meaningless, as in the Championship no team can really be considered "easy" ... as Doncaster have shown this week. We haven't won anything yet - but neither have Reading or West Ham. It's not going to be easy, but I'd rather have our run-in than that of our two closest challengers. I'll be most nervous about the Reading game - which will strike a massive blow for whoever wins... and we're at home. As I said, I'd rather have our run-in than that of either Reading or West Ham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chez Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 I've said all along we wuld get promoted and I'm not going to change my mind now. We have 5 of the bottom 7 teams, you have got to fancy our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint86 Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 It worries me that we have the lowest ranked average, becuase I think we have a damn tuff run in. Its good research but i feel there is a great deal to much confidence flowing around the place. For example, Milwall. Well, we've tried to beat them several times this season.... not doing to well against a club in their position. Hull Away, I don't think so and blackpool away, another tough game. Also those matches are in quick succession, and involve long journeys. We will be leffy as we are so many times this season - example would be leeds, and regardless of the fact that we won, we were also played off the park. Also the games against Boro and Reading will be very very tough. If we want to win the league we will damn well earn it. But I really think this is going to be a total scrap and there will be alot of place switching. However, if we make it past blackpool in frist place you would have to fancy us. And lets be honest, it would be nice to win a worthwhile trophy for once - This has to be our best chance for a while!!! Final thoughts. Other teams seem to assume that when the pressure arrives, we will crack. Well i think this is a mistake. The pressure has allready got to West Ham, and readings mentality will now be tested. Are they chasing us for 1st or were they going for top 2? Are they now under pressure or is it still just a chase for them? They all underestimate us however, we had it tough last season when chasing huddersfield so there can, and should be, no doubts over our mental strength!! Come on you reds!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London Saint Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 If we can get 7 points from the next 9 and WHU v Reading is a draw then it will start to look very nice indeed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ampersound Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 Looking at that run in for all teams... Whoever does the best out of those games will deserve to go up. The thing in our favour is experience of having a run in like that, ie last season. I think reading have the advantage over WHam due to last years play offs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALWAYS_SFC Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 Much better than our old relegation battles from days past Still nerve wracking though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dinger Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 I've a feeling once WHam have played their next two games against Leeds and Boro, we might be looking at a two-horse race with Reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dune Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 all of a sudden west ham look very, very shaky. Hardly buzzing with confidence and trips to Leeds and Burnley looming with Boro at home. I wouldn't fancy being in their shoes They play away at Leicester in the penultimate game. Leicester could well need to win that to make the play-offs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MongoNeil Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 If the top three have all got tough run ins, what are the chances of someone like Middlesbrough or dare I say it, Brighton, putting on a late charge and joining the party? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dune Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 If the top three have all got tough run ins, what are the chances of someone like Middlesbrough or dare I say it, Brighton, putting on a late charge and joining the party? Middlesbrough blew their chance at home to Leeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HK_Phoey Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 Middlesbrough and Brighton also have fairly tough run ins. Personally looking at these fixture and predicting results, I see us getting 20 points from these games. If I had to predict other results I see Reading getting 14 points and West Ham getting 17 points. Reading is a big game but reckon we will win that although will be tight. This is one of the better stat sites I have seen. Has us 90% chance of being promoted and 60% chance of being champions from here. Down to ourselves now. I think we will lose games but others will lose more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HK_Phoey Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 Ooops what a **** forgot the link. Still is nearly midnight here http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/ChampionshipLeague.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AK Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 If the top three have all got tough run ins, what are the chances of someone like Middlesbrough or dare I say it, Brighton, putting on a late charge and joining the party? To get in the top 2 I think Brighton would need to win 10 out of their last 10 matches, maybe 9 and a draw. Middlesborough probably need to win 8 out 11 plus draw the other 3.For me it is between the top three now , as even if one team goes into meltdown, I cant see that happening to two out of the three involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buctootim Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 If people are worried about Doncaster, Portsmouth and Coventry at home they are going to be doubly incontinent next season with Man U and City away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DT Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 Don't fancy our trip to Boro in the penultimate game, I must say, but Coventry at home on the last day is one of the best we could hope for. I believe Reading will do much better than West Ham, perhaps even pipping us into second. I don't care, but we must go automatic. Can't cope with play-offs, and feel sure that having been in a good position for so long, dropping away now would sap morale and we'd find it hard to motivate for the play-offs. So, Reading, Saints, then Hammers, who'll similarly fail in the play-offs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vindaloo Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 Average opponent position is meaningless - it's more instructive to look at how many "good" teams each has to play - in which case Saints clearly have the least difficult run-in. And even that's completely meaningless, as in the Championship no team can really be considered "easy" ... as Doncaster have shown this week. We haven't won anything yet - but neither have Reading or West Ham. It's not going to be easy, but I'd rather have our run-in than that of our two closest challengers. I'll be most nervous about the Reading game - which will strike a massive blow for whoever wins... and we're at home. As I said, I'd rather have our run-in than that of either Reading or West Ham. this sums it up well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golden Balls Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 The Reading game is going to be HUGE!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supersubpuckett Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 Us and West Ham have 4 home games but Reading have 5 - could be significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypochondriac Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 When you look at it like this we're all gonna drop points but Reading and Hammers look like dropping more. If we can get to the Blackpool game with maximum points I think we'll almost be untouchable. I did the predictor and had us to draw and then lose the next two games. We still went up first by winning our home games (except Reading which we drew). We should get promoted TBH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypochondriac Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 Average opponent position is meaningless - it's more instructive to look at how many "good" teams each has to play - in which case Saints clearly have the least difficult run-in. And even that's completely meaningless, as in the Championship no team can really be considered "easy" ... as Doncaster have shown this week. We haven't won anything yet - but neither have Reading or West Ham. It's not going to be easy, but I'd rather have our run-in than that of our two closest challengers. I'll be most nervous about the Reading game - which will strike a massive blow for whoever wins... and we're at home. As I said, I'd rather have our run-in than that of either Reading or West Ham. What will be most important will be if teams still have something to play for. I want Birmingham to be seventh and Hull sixth on the final day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypochondriac Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 If the top three have all got tough run ins, what are the chances of someone like Middlesbrough or dare I say it, Brighton, putting on a late charge and joining the party? If Brighton won all ten of their remaining games they would only finish on 88. They won't get anywhere near top two but will be a danger in the playoffs and will play a big part in this run in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypochondriac Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 If people are worried about Doncaster, Portsmouth and Coventry at home they are going to be doubly incontinent next season with Man U and City away. Not really as most will be expecting a loss. The reason everyone is nervous is because expectations are so high. Next season survival will be a victory should we get promoted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkeyboy Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 Shame we don't play pompey a few games later, a win could have guaranteed our promotion and their relegation at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpturner Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 If Brighton won all ten of their remaining games they would only finish on 88. They won't get anywhere near top two but will be a danger in the playoffs and will play a big part in this run in.Are you saying 88 won't be enough for top 2 - or that they won't win all 10 games. One of these assertions is correct, and the other is not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S-Clarke Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 To be honest, we can spend so much time analsying points per game, averages, form, other teams run-ins etc - but so much changes in a second in this league. Reading brushing everyone away, 8 wins in a row, yet slip up at Doncaster where you'd least expect them to. Just take one game at a time, I'd still say with pretty good confidence that a target of 85+ points will see you promomted. Let's just aim for that ourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 will say it again. just see 84/85 points enough for top 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypochondriac Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 Are you saying 88 won't be enough for top 2 - or that they won't win all 10 games. One of these assertions is correct, and the other is not I am saying that quite obviously they won't win all ten. Even if they won them all they would only finish a few points more than what I would consider to be the minimum amount to get second if all three teams at the top continue strongly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypochondriac Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 will say it again. just see 84/85 points enough for top 2 85/86 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Without a Halo Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 If the top three have all got tough run ins, what are the chances of someone like Middlesbrough or dare I say it, Brighton, putting on a late charge and joining the party? assuming they win their games in hand the cloest are at least 7 points behind which is difficult to make up at the rate of a almost a point a game! Also Boro Hull and Birmingham all have a number of tough games themselves! so looks like a three horse race unless one of the above does a Reading and wins 8 or 9 on the spin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Without a Halo Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 Us and West Ham have 4 home games but Reading have 5 - could be significant No they dont they also have only 4 all their games in hand including the recent doncaster game are away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegaffer Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 Reading have scored a lot of goals from set plays so the emphasis here is to not give to many corners away or free kicks in and around the penalty box and the game willbe ours for the taking.Average opponent position is meaningless - it's more instructive to look at how many "good" teams each has to play - in which case Saints clearly have the least difficult run-in. And even that's completely meaningless, as in the Championship no team can really be considered "easy" ... as Doncaster have shown this week. We haven't won anything yet - but neither have Reading or West Ham. It's not going to be easy, but I'd rather have our run-in than that of our two closest challengers. I'll be most nervous about the Reading game - which will strike a massive blow for whoever wins... and we're at home. As I said, I'd rather have our run-in than that of either Reading or West Ham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saints_is_the_south Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 For example, Milwall. Well, we've tried to beat them several times this season.... not doing to well against a club in their position. Sorry? We beat them at St Mary's in the league. In the 2 cup games our starting 11 was made up by 50% reserves/kids. Not saying it won't be a tough game on Saturday, but your statement is ridiculous IMO. This is the way I see the run in: Millwall (A) - I have the same feeling about this that I had before the Watford game, tough battle where we will have to grind out a result. Take the lead early on like we did at Watford however and we should win comfortably. Hull (A) - Very tough away fixture, Hull don't concede many goals at all but likewise they don't score many (prior to their draw with Ipswich, they'd gone 3 consecutive games at home drawing 0-0). We know we will create chances against anybody, so go there and defend like we have been recently and shut them out and you have a goo chance of winning. Doncaster (H) - This has all the hall marks of being a very nervy and frustrating game where a lot of patience will be required from players & fans a like. I see something similar to the Bristol Rovers game at SMS at the end of last season, Donny being happy to sit back and soak up the pressure and being hard to break down. Would take a 1-0 in this one here & now. Blackpool (A) - Despite their recent dip in form, this is our toughest away game left IMO. Very dangerous going forward, and a good home record. I'd take and predict a score draw for this one. Skates (H) - Derbies are usually scrappy, closely fought games but I do not expect this to be the case on April 7th. Yes we should not become overconfident and think all we have to do is turn up to win this game, but I really believe that if we turn it on like we have so many times before at home this season then the skates will simply not be able to live with us and we'll win at a canter. Palace (A) - Tough nut to crack at their place, like Hull - don't concede too many but likewise aren't that sharp in front of goal. Would probably take a draw if offered, but with nearly 6K away fans there I feel the sight of one whole side of the ground in red & white will spur our boys on to win this one. Reading (H) - THE game of the run in. Win this and you lan a major blow. Our record at home against the top sides this season is what fills me with optimism for this game. If are still top by then, a draw would not be a bad result. Peterborough (A) - Dangerous team going forward, but their defence is woeful and any team that concedes 3 at home to the skates should not provide us with too many problems. Middlesbrough (A) - Don't really understand why so many on here are so worried about this game. Boro's home record is not good (too many draws & not enough goals scored), and having watched their game against Leeds on Sunday I really see nothing to be afraid of here. WHU & Reading have both been here and won comfortably this season, and I think we'll beat them too. Coventry (H) - Worst away record in the league, 0 wins. Nuff said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 If the top three have all got tough run ins, what are the chances of someone like Middlesbrough or dare I say it, Brighton, putting on a late charge and joining the party? Brighton's fixtures are on a par with Reading's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 (edited) If Brighton won all ten of their remaining games they would only finish on 88. They won't get anywhere near top two but will be a danger in the playoffs and will play a big part in this run in. They might well, but it's likely to be as a result of losing to lots of top half teams. Both they and Reading have just put runs together... now let's look at the detail. Reading : Championship Doncaster 1-1 Reading (currently 22nd) Championship Reading 3-1 Leicester (11th) Championship Reading 1-0 Portsmouth (24th) Championship Millwall 1-2 Reading (19th) Championship Middlesbrough 0-2 Reading (4th) Championship Reading 1-0 Burnley (14th) Championship Derby 0-1 Reading (13th) Championship Reading 2-0 Coventry (23rd) Championship Reading 1-0 Bristol City (21st) Average position of teams played during their 8W 1D streak ? 16.7th, call it 17th. Brighton : Championship Brighton 2-0 Portsmouth (24th) Championship Brighton 2-2 Cardiff (7th) Championship Doncaster 1-1 Brighton (22nd) Championship Brighton 3-0 Ipswich (16th) Championship Hull 0-0 Brighton (6th) Championship Brighton 2-2 Millwall (19th) Championship Leeds United 1-2 Brighton (10th) Championship Brighton 1-0 Leicester (11th) Championship Crystal Palace 1-1 Brighton (12th) Average position of teams played during their last 9 games for comparison with Reading : 4W 5D (14.1, so near as dammit 14th.) Neither of those records is particularly impressive given the standard of opposition. Of all the teams in the top 8, it's Hull who look like they have the easiest run in, though I can't be bothered to work out the stats - and if HULL get anywhere near us we'll have plenty of others to worry about. Edited 14 March, 2012 by The9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeSixty Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 Pointless looking ahead. Would rather take each game as it comes, football changes thick and fast. We could have Lambo, Lallana, Jos, Kelv all get injured for the season vs Milwall, how is the run in then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 Too many variables in all that for me. I think it's going to take another 5 or 6 games before things get a bit clearer, so I'm happy to take it one cliche at a time. When's the earliest we could be promoted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegaffer Posted 15 March, 2012 Share Posted 15 March, 2012 i would have thought we would of wanted West Ham to beat Reading due to the fact that we then have Reading at home and with a win could almost guarantee us promotion...Just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Boy Saint Posted 15 March, 2012 Share Posted 15 March, 2012 When's the earliest we could be promoted? I will put my neck out and say a Saturday or Tuesday in April. You heard it here first! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegaffer Posted 15 March, 2012 Share Posted 15 March, 2012 Scary but Fri April 13th when we beat Reading at home. There is a possible 21 points up for grabs including that fixture and I reckon if they have lost at West Ham as well this is the game that when we win we will be clear of third and guaranteed automatic promotion.This is the reason i am desoerate for West Ham to beat Reading before they come to St Marys. Imagine winning promotion against a local side with full house at St Marys.It will be awesome. So my day for promotion is a Friday!!I will put my neck out and say a Saturday or Tuesday in April. You heard it here first! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanthemanfairoak Posted 15 March, 2012 Share Posted 15 March, 2012 Pointless looking ahead. Would rather take each game as it comes, football changes thick and fast. We could have Lambo, Lallana, Jos, Kelv all get injured for the season vs Milwall, how is the run in then?[/ POINT MADE SIR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alpine_saint Posted 15 March, 2012 Share Posted 15 March, 2012 Too much left to analyse. We keep doing our thing..... FWIW, as someone as said, if we are still top after the Blackpool game, you have to fancy our chances of going up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saint lard Posted 15 March, 2012 Share Posted 15 March, 2012 We can only control the controllables....just focus on our games. Way to many permutations. Confident we will gain promotion and i'm not concerned about who goes up as champions. It would be the icing on the cake to win the league,but in the grand scheme of things its promotion that is the ultimate prize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpturner Posted 15 March, 2012 Share Posted 15 March, 2012 We can only control the controllables....just focus on our games. Way to many permutations. Confident we will gain promotion and i'm not concerned about who goes up as champions. It would be the icing on the cake to win the league,but in the grand scheme of things its promotion that is the ultimate prize.Thanks Nige - BTW, it is "too" not "to" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 15 March, 2012 Share Posted 15 March, 2012 I will put my neck out and say a Saturday or Tuesday in April. You heard it here first! Nice try! Not Friday 13th nor Monday 9th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolsaint29 Posted 15 March, 2012 Share Posted 15 March, 2012 Vaz Te out for 3 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegaffer Posted 15 March, 2012 Share Posted 15 March, 2012 Hamstring. Probally there best player on his day and by all accounts he was on fire before the injury against Donny on Sat!Vaz Te out for 3 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S-Clarke Posted 15 March, 2012 Share Posted 15 March, 2012 Vaz Te out for 3 weeks Not sure if that's a blow, I think he's utter tosh personally. Lots of running and pace, but very little end product. This will now force them to bring either Baldock or Cole back into the fold, and they will be much more potent up top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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