Bud Fox Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 So i'm a massive geek... I have pulled together a prediction of the number of points each of the current top three will get by the end of the season - basing it on a weighted average of four numbers 1. Teams points per game over whole season (home & away separate) 2. Teams points per game over past 6 games (home & away separate) 3. Opponents points per game over whole season (home & away separate) 4. Opponents points per game over past 6 games (home & away separate) Interesting Stats Southampton Home pts per game (form in brackets) = 2.37 (1.83) Away pts per game (form in brackets) = 1.41 (1.83) Average of home opponents away points (form in brackets) = 0.93 (0.93) Average of away opponents home points (form in brackets) = 1.55 (1.23) Reading Home pts per game (form in brackets) = 1.95 (2.50) Away pts per game (form in brackets) = 1.76 (2.17) Average of home opponents away points (form in brackets) = 1.22 (1.33) Average of away opponents home points (form in brackets) = 1.84 (1.73) West Ham Home pts per game (form in brackets) = 1.83 (1.67) Away pts per game (form in brackets) = 1.94 (1.67) Average of home opponents away points (form in brackets) = 1.51 (1.67) Average of away opponents home points (form in brackets) = 1.39 (1.40) All these leads to a table of Saints 88 West Ham 84 Reading 84 I'm sure I have made a load of mistakes but thought it might be an interesting exersize... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmel Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 Mistakes or not..... I'll go with the end result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 All these leads to a table of Saints 88 West Ham 84 Reading 84 I'm sure I have made a load of mistakes but thought it might be an interesting exersize... All I would ask is that you tweak places 2 and 3 so that West Ham finish below Reading on goal difference. Apart from that, perfect! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bud Fox Posted 14 March, 2012 Author Share Posted 14 March, 2012 I assumed that West Ham have the have a superior goal difference now, and will pick roughly the same number of points, they will maintain the gap... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iansums Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 So i'm a massive geek... I have pulled together a prediction of the number of points each of the current top three will get by the end of the season - basing it on a weighted average of four numbers 1. Teams points per game over whole season (home & away separate) 2. Teams points per game over past 6 games (home & away separate) 3. Opponents points per game over whole season (home & away separate) 4. Opponents points per game over past 6 games (home & away separate) Interesting Stats Southampton Home pts per game (form in brackets) = 2.37 (1.83) Away pts per game (form in brackets) = 1.41 (1.83) Average of home opponents away points (form in brackets) = 0.93 (0.93) Average of away opponents home points (form in brackets) = 1.55 (1.23) Reading Home pts per game (form in brackets) = 1.95 (2.50) Away pts per game (form in brackets) = 1.76 (2.17) Average of home opponents away points (form in brackets) = 1.22 (1.33) Average of away opponents home points (form in brackets) = 1.84 (1.73) West Ham Home pts per game (form in brackets) = 1.83 (1.67) Away pts per game (form in brackets) = 1.94 (1.67) Average of home opponents away points (form in brackets) = 1.51 (1.67) Average of away opponents home points (form in brackets) = 1.39 (1.40) All these leads to a table of Saints 88 West Ham 84 Reading 84 I'm sure I have made a load of mistakes but thought it might be an interesting exersize... I have to say your analysis is spot on, you are indeed a massive geek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glasgow_Saint Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 Sold!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lazlo78 Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 Looking at our points average this season I also predict 88 points: http://www.saintsweb.co.uk/showthread.php?28580-Stats-comparison&p=1301027#post1301027 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fez Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 It's an amazing reflection of Fat Sam's style -- and his unpopularity with the home fans -- that WHam have picked up more points away than at home this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy_D Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/ChampionshipLeague.html This site's pretty good for the stattos amongst us. There're explanations on the site for how it works it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victor Posted 14 March, 2012 Share Posted 14 March, 2012 Have you set out your your prediction graphically to ensure it stands up when tested against Benford's law? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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