Ian the Red Posted 14 January, 2012 Share Posted 14 January, 2012 Well we are in the driving seat, as it were. 90 points will almost certainly give us the league title and the way we have played for most of this season I can see no reason why we wouldn't get those 90 points. 10 home games, well that is at least 27 points, so just 13 points from 10 away games........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farawaysaint Posted 14 January, 2012 Share Posted 14 January, 2012 I imagine everyone's glanced at the fixture list for the run in? We just have to stay focused over January and February, the final two months of the season I don't think we could have asked for a better run in In particular April shouldn't see us drop many if any points, the only doubts are a toughie at Boro away that could be a 6 pointer come the end and a challenging tie at Reading which is still very winnable. Hopefully we thump Pompey at St Mary's though, that would make my season if we get promoted as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saintandy666 Posted 14 January, 2012 Share Posted 14 January, 2012 (edited) Sounds alright to me, but for 2nd place last few years shown next to points difference between top and bottom and then ratio of that(to show how competitive league was) is... 2010-11 - 2nd - 84 points - Diff top/bottom - 46 ratio - 46/84 = 0.547 2009-10 - 2nd - 91 points - Diff top/bottom - 68 ratio - 68/91 = 0.747 2008-09 - 2nd - 83 points - Diff top/bottom - 51 ratio - 51/83 = 0.614 2007-08 - 2nd - 79 points - Diff top/bottom - 43 ratio - 43/79 = 0.469 2006-07 - 2nd - 86 points - Diff top/bottom - 50 ratio - 50/86 = 0.581 Now, for me, what the ratio shows is the relative competitiveness of the league, the higher the number the less competitive the league as a whole. Obviously one team doing terribly in any one year could cause some data disturbance. But anyways, if we were to plug this into this year so far... 2nd - 50 points - Diff top/bottom - 31 - ratio - 31/50 = 0.62 That means if things remain the same this year will have the same relative competitiveness as roughly 2008-2009 did. Therefore, I predict for a 2nd place finish and auto promotion we will need between 81 and 85 points roughly or a game to points ratio of about 1.55(that's for 33 more points). Edited 15 January, 2012 by Saintandy666 made a calculation error! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raucebysaint Posted 14 January, 2012 Share Posted 14 January, 2012 Do we really want to go up? I'm loving this league.. Premier league will only bring heartache and misery again !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedWillie Posted 14 January, 2012 Share Posted 14 January, 2012 Thats very interesting....but you really need to get out more !!!Sounds alright to me, but for 2nd place last few years shown next to points difference between top and bottom and then ratio of that(to show how competitive league was) is... 2010-11 - 2nd - 84 points - Diff top/bottom - 46 ratio - 46/84 = 0.547 2009-10 - 2nd - 91 points - Diff top/bottom - 68 ratio - 68/91 = 0.747 2008-09 - 2nd - 83 points - Diff top/bottom - 51 ratio - 51/83 = 0.614 2007-08 - 2nd - 79 points - Diff top/bottom - 43 ratio - 43/79 = 0.469 2006-07 - 2nd - 86 points - Diff top/bottom - 50 ratio - 36/86 = 0.418 Now, for me, what the ratio shows is the relative competitiveness of the league, the higher the number the less competitive the league as a whole. Obviously one team doing terribly in any one year could cause some data disturbance. But anyways, if we were to plug this into this year so far... 2nd - 50 points - Diff top/bottom - 31 - ratio - 31/50 = 0.62 That means if things remain the same this year will have the same relative competitiveness as roughly 2008-2009 did. Therefore, I predict for a 2nd place finish and auto promotion we will need between 81 and 85 points roughly or a game to points ratio of about 1.55(that's for 33 more points). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saintandy666 Posted 14 January, 2012 Share Posted 14 January, 2012 Thats very interesting....but you really need to get out more !!! Ahahaa, indeed I do. I was bored waiting to go out. Just in from a delicious Nando's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THEVMAN Posted 14 January, 2012 Share Posted 14 January, 2012 I think we all know that anything can happen in this league,lets just enjoy the ride and take what happens.At least we know relegation is pretty much out of the equation now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raging Bull Posted 14 January, 2012 Share Posted 14 January, 2012 I think we all know that anything can happen in this league,lets just enjoy the ride and take what happens.At least we know relegation is pretty much out of the equation now. You don't sound very positive?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anothersaintinsouthsea Posted 14 January, 2012 Share Posted 14 January, 2012 SaintAndy666, interesting stuff but we don't need to get as much as recent 2nd place teams, we just need to get one more point or better goal difference than recent 3rd place teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian the Red Posted 15 January, 2012 Author Share Posted 15 January, 2012 SaintAndy666, interesting stuff but we don't need to get as much as recent 2nd place teams, we just need to get one more point or better goal difference than recent 3rd place teams. What do you mean? Why are we looking at 3rd? Or even 2nd for that matter? We will win the league, job done!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saintscottofthenortham Posted 15 January, 2012 Share Posted 15 January, 2012 Sounds alright to me, but for 2nd place last few years shown next to points difference between top and bottom and then ratio of that(to show how competitive league was) is... 2010-11 - 2nd - 84 points - Diff top/bottom - 46 ratio - 46/84 = 0.547 2009-10 - 2nd - 91 points - Diff top/bottom - 68 ratio - 68/91 = 0.747 2008-09 - 2nd - 83 points - Diff top/bottom - 51 ratio - 51/83 = 0.614 2007-08 - 2nd - 79 points - Diff top/bottom - 43 ratio - 43/79 = 0.469 2006-07 - 2nd - 86 points - Diff top/bottom - 50 ratio - 36/86 = 0.418 Now, for me, what the ratio shows is the relative competitiveness of the league, the higher the number the less competitive the league as a whole. Obviously one team doing terribly in any one year could cause some data disturbance. But anyways, if we were to plug this into this year so far... 2nd - 50 points - Diff top/bottom - 31 - ratio - 31/50 = 0.62 That means if things remain the same this year will have the same relative competitiveness as roughly 2008-2009 did. Therefore, I predict for a 2nd place finish and auto promotion we will need between 81 and 85 points roughly or a game to points ratio of about 1.55(that's for 33 more points). Cool story bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ooh it's a corner Posted 15 January, 2012 Share Posted 15 January, 2012 SaintAndy666, interesting stuff but we don't need to get as much as recent 2nd place teams, we just need to get one more point or better goal difference than recent 3rd place teams. Good point, well made, but doesn't make a lot of difference if you apply it to the above. What is interesting though, is couting back from last season, third placed teams have scored, 80, 79, 80, 75, 84 points. So 84 points and a better goal difference should do it for us, or call it 85 to be on the safe side. Andy's OP said 81 to 85 points and I can't argue with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chez Posted 15 January, 2012 Share Posted 15 January, 2012 Do we really want to go up? I'm loving this league.. Premier league will only bring heartache and misery again !!its a very good question, but there is no guarantee that we will win games next season, and on the financial side we have a big old wage bill that will need promotion at some point to wipe out the debt we have probably built up over the last three seasons (even with the £12m from AOC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chez Posted 15 January, 2012 Share Posted 15 January, 2012 Sounds alright to me, but for 2nd place last few years shown next to points difference between top and bottom and then ratio of that(to show how competitive league was) is... 2010-11 - 2nd - 84 points - Diff top/bottom - 46 ratio - 46/84 = 0.547 2009-10 - 2nd - 91 points - Diff top/bottom - 68 ratio - 68/91 = 0.747 2008-09 - 2nd - 83 points - Diff top/bottom - 51 ratio - 51/83 = 0.614 2007-08 - 2nd - 79 points - Diff top/bottom - 43 ratio - 43/79 = 0.469 2006-07 - 2nd - 86 points - Diff top/bottom - 50 ratio - 36/86 = 0.418 Now, for me, what the ratio shows is the relative competitiveness of the league, the higher the number the less competitive the league as a whole. Obviously one team doing terribly in any one year could cause some data disturbance. But anyways, if we were to plug this into this year so far... 2nd - 50 points - Diff top/bottom - 31 - ratio - 31/50 = 0.62 That means if things remain the same this year will have the same relative competitiveness as roughly 2008-2009 did. Therefore, I predict for a 2nd place finish and auto promotion we will need between 81 and 85 points roughly or a game to points ratio of about 1.55(that's for 33 more points). very interesting analysis. Can O ask you to do it using 3rd bottom rather than bottom as as you said sometimes the bottom placed team gets cut adrift and this season I think Cov will do just that especially having lost their `star' striker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MINIBARCELONASAINT Posted 15 January, 2012 Share Posted 15 January, 2012 If we go with the OP's thinking of 40 more points over 20 games, that's 2 points per game. If we were to win 2 games in every 3, that should ensure we get the 40 points to hit 90 and hopefully the title. But where do you see us picking up the necessary points? I've broken down the remaining fixtures into groups of three and tried to remain realistic, of course opinion will vary. The target is 6 points out of every 3 games: Southampton v Leicester, WIN Southampton v Cardiff, WIN Birmingham v Southampton, DRAW Total: 7, Running Total: 7 Southampton v Burnley, WIN West Ham v Southampton, LOSE Southampton v Derby, WIN Total: 6, Running Total: 15 Watford v Southampton, WIN Leeds v Southampton, DRAW Southampton v Ipswich, WIN Total: 7, Running Total: 22 Southampton v Barnsley, WIN Millwall v Southampton, WIN Hull v Southampton, LOSE Total: 6, Running Total: 28 Southampton v Doncaster, WIN Blackpool v Southampton, LOSE Southampton v Portsmouth, DRAW Total: 4, Running Total: 32 Crystal Palace v Southampton, LOSE Southampton v Reading, WIN Peterborough v Southampton, DRAW Total: 4, Running Total: 36 Middlesbrough v Southampton, DRAW Southampton v Coventry, WIN Total: 4, Running Total: 40 Until January is over and clubs have made their signings, this may be entirely pointless, as well as speculative, but I genuinely think we can do it. Whether we will though, that'll depend on Nigel and the lads! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krissyboy31 Posted 15 January, 2012 Share Posted 15 January, 2012 90 points should be enough to win the division, however on most occasions 85 is enough for automatic promotion. There has been a few freak seasons when even 90 hasn't been enough for top two but I can't see that being the case this season (too many teams of similar ability who are all going to take points off of each other). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
del boy Posted 15 January, 2012 Share Posted 15 January, 2012 I'd just like to point out that football's a funny game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ooh it's a corner Posted 15 January, 2012 Share Posted 15 January, 2012 90 points should be enough to win the division, however on most occasions 85 is enough for automatic promotion. There has been a few freak seasons when even 90 hasn't been enough for top two but I can't see that being the case this season (too many teams of similar ability who are all going to take points off of each other). not in the past 10 seasons there hasn't http://www.football-league.co.uk/page/DivisionalLeagueTable/0,,10794~20027,00.html 85 points will do it for me. 11 wins, 2 draws, 7 losses. Home and hosed. (i hope) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faz Posted 15 January, 2012 Share Posted 15 January, 2012 Hold your nerve boys. There will be ups and downs. Teams will take points off each other. In Nige we trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted 15 January, 2012 Share Posted 15 January, 2012 (edited) SaintAndy666, interesting stuff but we don't need to get as much as recent 2nd place teams, we just need to get one more point or better goal difference than recent 3rd place teams. Nice to see this spasticated garbage getting a run out yet again. If we want to finish second we will most likely need to achieve the points total that the second placed tends to get. If you are in a race, and you overtake the runner in third, that makes you.....wait for it....third. Not second. Edited 15 January, 2012 by CB Fry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicken With A Banjo Posted 15 January, 2012 Share Posted 15 January, 2012 The analysis assumes that 'competitiveness' of the league during first half of the season will be the same as that of the second half. I'm not convinced that is necessarily the case. My gut feeling is that as we get closer to the end of the season teams tend to pick up more points due to fear of relegation/carrot of promotion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crab Lungs Posted 15 January, 2012 Share Posted 15 January, 2012 Dare I suggest... http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_div_1/predictor/default.stm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbojones10 Posted 15 January, 2012 Share Posted 15 January, 2012 i cant believe there are morons on here who are questioning if we want to go up or not because 'they like this league' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGTL Posted 15 January, 2012 Share Posted 15 January, 2012 Dare I suggest... http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_div_1/predictor/default.stm I lived on that for the last month last season Bit too early yet though I'd say! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
los_saint Posted 15 January, 2012 Share Posted 15 January, 2012 i cant believe there are morons on here who are questioning if we want to go up or not because 'they like this league' Obviously we want to go up back to the PL where we belong. We were there for 27 years before relegation and getting back there is a must. That said, it's probably fair to say that we won't win nearly as many games and will probably see Saints gets spanked on a few occasions before we re-establish ourselves as a top flgt side. I'd be interested to know of QPR fans are enjoying this season more than last? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fez Posted 15 January, 2012 Share Posted 15 January, 2012 I'd be interested to know of QPR fans are enjoying this season more than last? No but Swansea and Norwich fans are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saintandy666 Posted 15 January, 2012 Share Posted 15 January, 2012 With 3rd bottom instead... 2010-11 - 2nd - 84 points - Diff top/3rd bottom - 46 ratio - 46/84 = 0.548 2009-10 - 2nd - 91 points - Diff top/3rd bottom - 55 ratio - 55/91 = 0.604 2008-09 - 2nd - 83 points - Diff top/3rd bottom - 44 ratio - 44/83 = 0.530 2007-08 - 2nd - 79 points - Diff top/3rd bottom - 29 ratio - 29/79 = 0.367 2006-07 - 2nd - 86 points - Diff top/3rd bottom - 46 ratio - 46/86 = 0.535 So, 2007-2008 was by far the most competitive year and if you look at the table you have lots of teams bunched around 60 points and also perhaps as would be expected, it took the least amount of points to win the league that year. There is definitely a correlation between this if you look at the stats, probably a better one than when I used the bottom placed team, so cheers for the suggestion! But to compare it to this year again... Which would be 26/50 = 0.520... Which again points to(if competitiveness remains the same) a year between about 81 and 85 points for second! Will be interesting to see if it hits that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now