Greece leaving the Euro?

[Tokyo-Saint]

:poundit::poundit:

Cheerio then, thanks for passing by.

[TopGun]

This was interesting and is now a Dune right wing, anti German, war reflecting bore. Well done.

 

As soon as I saw this thread I knew the uber economists known as Dune and Delldays would weigh in with fascinating intellectual insight.

[dubai_phil]

Phil, would a single currency in your neck of the woods ever work

 

 

Yes. Strangely.

 

The core GCC countries Oman Kuwait Bahrain UAE Qatar & Saudi have always run pretty much fixed rate exchange systems, against the dollar (for obvious reasons as they are primarlily Oil Exporters paid in Dollars (ORLY?)

For us the dollar:dirham rate has been 3.653 certainly since I came here 19 years ago. That has had all sorts of ups and downs for us importing inflation and the like

 

Kuwait was the only one who switched to peg against a basket of currencies

 

BUT and here is the rub, WHY have a single currency when you don't have a single market. EU had all the rest of the baggage - harmonisation, labour laws etc, down here Saudi itself cannot even harmonise what Electricity system it uses - half is US 110v and half is EU 220V. Each "City State" or Emirate here has different rules on behaviour, dress codes, alcohol, business operations. There simply is not the freedom of movement of people and goods that you have in EU.

 

They TALK about it every year or so and have a "roadmap" but they also have that for Customs Tarrifs and the like. You really aren't going to get the smaller countries being told by Saudi how to run their economies (why? Well Saudi lent money to Sharjah - which used to be a right old party town - Sharjah developed itself but HAD to impose strict Sharia Law (no booze for one) The UAE is building a sustainable future based on Tourism, they have seen the problems Qatar are having if you try and build Tourism & property (and World Cups) and then don't allow booze liences.

 

So yes it could work, just far too much "stuff" in the way

 

WHICH is exactly what the case was in the EU way back, just that the luvvies beat the living hell out of anyone who tried to argue against it or even raise up reasons why it wouldn't work

[Thedelldays]

As soon as I saw this thread I knew the uber economists known as Dune and Delldays would weigh in with fascinating intellectual insight.

both right though...

[Tokyo-Saint]

both right though...

 

Exactly mate, that is the biggest problem. I do not count you in this but...

 

When people like Dune or organisations like the EDL do actually have good points or are correct about something to do with economics, they let they self down and take away from the point as they any help but make a stupid comment. For example, the point of germany wanting to keep the euro to help keep their exports affordable, boasting their manufacturing industry at the expense of med countries is a valid one. However, it gets lost in amongst all the rest of the ****** about sunbeds and blackadder style German stereotypes.

[derry]

The whole bloody house of cards will collapse in a heap in the fullness of time. We would probably be the first out and Germany and France would have to pick up our tab. The Eastern Europeans will end up the trigger for the collapse. No collection of countries ever worked for too long even under force of arms and this won't either.

[dvaughanwilliams]

Greece has a few choices, none of which are very appealing. It's a question of the least bad option:

 

No default, stay in the Euro. In my opinion, the best choice. Can use funding from the ECB, IMF, EIB, etc to run a reducing deficit over a number of years. Will go through a horrible recession, high unemployment, deflation and misery.

 

Default and stay in the Euro. Instant elimination of deficit as they can't borrow any money. Deflation, high unemployment, bank failures and bankruptcies happen quickly. Still trapped in an unsuitable currency.

 

Default and leave Euro. Long-term, may be the best option, but the practicalities of re-introducing the drachma, pretty terrible. as soon as the Greek people heard a credible rumour that it would happen there would be runs on banks and people would be desperate to get their hands on Euro notes. There would have to be border controls to prevent anyone taking notes out of the country without being stamped or converted to new Drachma. The new currency would instantly fail as the people would reject it. Hyperinflation would take hold with the accompanying hardship.

 

Like being asked which of your children would you kill, or would you rather lose an arm, leg or eye?

[dune]

Exactly mate, that is the biggest problem. I do not count you in this but...

 

When people like Dune or organisations like the EDL do actually have good points or are correct about something to do with economics, they let they self down and take away from the point as they any help but make a stupid comment. For example, the point of germany wanting to keep the euro to help keep their exports affordable, boasting their manufacturing industry at the expense of med countries is a valid one. However, it gets lost in amongst all the rest of the ****** about sunbeds and blackadder style German stereotypes.

 

Don't read my posts then you boring ****.

[aintforever]

 

Default and leave Euro. Long-term, may be the best option, but the practicalities of re-introducing the drachma, pretty terrible. as soon as the Greek people heard a credible rumour that it would happen there would be runs on banks and people would be desperate to get their hands on Euro notes. There would have to be border controls to prevent anyone taking notes out of the country without being stamped or converted to new Drachma. The new currency would instantly fail as the people would reject it. Hyperinflation would take hold with the accompanying hardship.

 

Short term pain for long term gain. They need to take the medicine and get out of the Euro, blow off the debt and devalue to get their economy moving again.

[scotty]

Greece has a few choices, none of which are very appealing. It's a question of the least bad option:

 

No default, stay in the Euro. In my opinion, the best choice. Can use funding from the ECB, IMF, EIB, etc to run a reducing deficit over a number of years. Will go through a horrible recession, high unemployment, deflation and misery.

 

Default and stay in the Euro. Instant elimination of deficit as they can't borrow any money. Deflation, high unemployment, bank failures and bankruptcies happen quickly. Still trapped in an unsuitable currency.

 

Default and leave Euro. Long-term, may be the best option, but the practicalities of re-introducing the drachma, pretty terrible. as soon as the Greek people heard a credible rumour that it would happen there would be runs on banks and people would be desperate to get their hands on Euro notes. There would have to be border controls to prevent anyone taking notes out of the country without being stamped or converted to new Drachma. The new currency would instantly fail as the people would reject it. Hyperinflation would take hold with the accompanying hardship.

 

Like being asked which of your children would you kill, or would you rather lose an arm, leg or eye?

 

 

 

I'm not sure the 2nd choice is an option. If they defaulted, surely remaining inside the eurozone would be inconceivable whether or not Greece wished to.

 

I suspect this is all academic now anyway, they are out of it in all but name. As far as the last point is concerned, I also suspect that most Greeks with any savings (both of them) will have worked that one out by now.

[Tokyo-Saint]

Don't read my posts then you boring ****.

 

 

What happened to your amazing sense of humour? Was it stollen by a group of travelling gypies or banned by the EU banana straighteners?

 

Why don't you bore off back to the UI board, you inbred xenophobic badger baiter?

[dune]

What happened to your amazing sense of humour? Was it stollen by a group of travelling gypies or banned by the EU banana straighteners?

 

Why don't you bore off back to the UI board, you inbred xenophobic badger baiter?

 

You're trying too hard.

[Tokyo-Saint]

You're trying too hard.

 

Not a fan of peep show then? It doesn't supprise me.

[dune]

Not a fan of peep show then? It doesn't supprise me.

 

 

Never heard of it.

[Tokyo-Saint]

You should spread your wings away from what's written in the express when it comes to popular culture Dune, it may open your mind.

 

'We are not enemies, but friends. We must not be enemies. Though passion may have strained, it must not break our bonds of affection. The mystic chords of memory will swell when again touched, as surely they will be, by the better angels of our nature.'

[suewhistle]

 

To lighten the mood, these lyrics were written to be sung to the above and I heard the first performance at my local folk club years ago:

(Eric, don't take it too seriously..:-) )

 

Mist on the runway; the morning

Sun kissed the runway at dawning;

Young men with hearts all a-tremble

Waiting the signal to scramble,

 

Men born to fly

Reach for the sky;

 

They wait

At the gate;

They wait and wait and wait and wait and wait.

 

 

I’ve been at Luton Airport now since 1982;

I want to go to Benidorm and who the hell are you?

Club 18-30? Look mate, don’t get shirty;

No can do; my I.Q. is nearly 32.

 

I’ve been at Luton so long that I’m on the housing list

And thanks to Carlberg Specials I have permanently missed

The daily cancellation to every destination; you

Can blame it on the Spanish air controllers

 

 

Tracey likes Pina Colada;

My Uncle Ron’s got a Lada;

We will sing the Birdie Song,

And somehow they will know we’re English;

Tracey’s just got her pesetas;

We both get laid by the waiters

Then we sing the Birdie Song

And we come home

 

 

There’s a little tartan suitcase and it’s going round and round

And a donkey with a straw hat and the owner can’t be found,

She’s out in Alicante; some poor old maiden auntie’s

Not seen Rosinante since 1982.

 

I wish I had my suitcases; I wonder where they went;

They’re coming through a curtain somewhere; proudly we present

My T shirt and my underpants; to entertain a maiden aunt

They’re going round and round in Alicante.

 

Chorus:

 

 

I went and asked that Tracey would she sleep with me in Spain;

She kicked me in the goolies, which is where I keep my brain.

We’ve just had our first quarrel; a kneecap in me morals;

I wish I was Harold; he’s out in Benidorm

 

 

He’s working as a waiter in a Benidorm hotel;

His mother calls him Harold but he calls himself Miguel.

It’s enough to make a grown man cry; he says he never has to try;

They never let a Dago by, it must be all that Spanish Fly;

They don’t know he’s from Ross-on-Wye; he’s out there but where am I?

 

Una Paloma Blanca;

Must say it fills me with rancour;

Una Paloma Blanca;

All Air Controllers are ******s.

 

Men born to fly

Come here to die.

 

They wait

And wait

And dream of different places, different Traceys;

 

Chorus: crescendo, dramatically etc…

[Thedelldays]

Greece leaving COULD trigger a divided Europe like we have not seen for decades...(just without the millions dead)...Ironic really

[dune]

Well i'm loving it. FTSE down another 2% to 5440. My target of FTSE 4500 for re-entry is another step closer. The only way is down for the time being.

[hypochondriac]

Greece leaving COULD trigger a divided Europe like we have not seen for decades...(just without the millions dead)...Ironic really

 

Very much so. The Europe project was doomed to failure. Countries should have the freedom to run themselves and should be led by those who have been democratically elected.

[dune]

All the EU should be is a free trade zone. That's it, nothing more.

[Window Cleaner]

Amazing that the British are far more concerned about the fate of the Euro than most of those nationalities that are actually part of it.Most of us just want Greece to f*ck off out of it because they're lying cheating,benefit swindling,tax evading idiots and we don't want to have to finance them cos we've our own sort of all those things.But it's not a biggy for most people.

[dune]

Amazing that the British are far more concerned about the fate of the Euro than most of those nationalities that are actually part of it.Most of us just want Greece to f*ck off out of it because they're lying cheating,benefit swindling,tax evading idiots and we don't want to have to finance them cos we've our own sort of all those things.But it's not a biggy for most people.

 

Plus, a lot of us would quite like to get more "bang for our buck" - as the yanks would say, on our holidays. The Euro is a complete and utter fraud. It's ludicrous how the pound sterling is comparitively weak to the currency of southern med countries. That said we've gone gone from parity to 1.2 : 1 and despite QE that redress is sure to continue. The Germans must be loving it.

[hypochondriac]

Amazing that the British are far more concerned about the fate of the Euro than most of those nationalities that are actually part of it.Most of us just want Greece to f*ck off out of it because they're lying cheating,benefit swindling,tax evading idiots and we don't want to have to finance them cos we've our own sort of all those things.But it's not a biggy for most people.

 

Because the euro directly affects Britain. If it continues then eventually they will get us to join it and it will eventually become the united states of Europe. Most Brits do not want this.

[Tokyo-Saint]

All the EU should be is a free trade zone. That's it, nothing more.

 

Strangely, once again Dune I almost agree with you. I would also have relaxed (but not total) freedom of movement.*

 

 

 

*all of this has nothing to do with towels on sun-beds or Prussia.

[dune]

Strangely, once again Dune I almost agree with you. I would also have relaxed (but not total) freedom of movement.*

 

 

 

*all of this has nothing to do with towels on sun-beds or Prussia.

 

I would allow freedom of movement between western european countries, but not between wester european countries and poor (mainly ex easter block countries). We've already been swamped with poles etc. Far too many have flooded in.

[Thedelldays]

I would allow freedom of movement between western european countries, but not between wester european countries and poor (mainly ex easter block countries). We've already been swamped with poles etc. Far too many have flooded in.

totally agree...I mean, freedom of movement with bulgaria ffs....what on earth do we have in common with them..?

yet, we have not as much freedom of movement with nations like australia, canada and New Zealand....ffs, nations we are massively and historically linked with..where many many of us have families etc...ffs, we share the same head of state.....

[Window Cleaner]

I would allow freedom of movement between western european countries, but not between wester european countries and poor (mainly ex easter block countries). We've already been swamped with poles etc. Far too many have flooded in.

 

 

Did Britain not give the Poles full residence rights long before most other European Nations?

Anyway I think the flux is now negative with more Poles going home or elsewhere in Europe than entering Britain.

Do not forget that Germany has a deficit of nigh on 200,000 workers per year.Why would Poles stay in Britain when they can be better off in Germany.Then again as usual I doubt that it will be the most qualified that stay behind and the least qualified that

go to Germany.

[dune]

totally agree...I mean, freedom of movement with bulgaria ffs....what on earth do we have in common with them..?

yet, we have not as much freedom of movement with nations like australia, canada and New Zealand....ffs, nations we are massively and historically linked with..where many many of us have families etc...ffs, we share the same head of state.....

 

TBF we have more in common with bulgarians than pakistanis.

[Thedelldays]

TBF we have more in common with bulgarians than pakistanis.

 

not too sure we share the same head of state with pakistan..????

[Window Cleaner]

not too sure we share the same head of state with pakistan..????

 

Do you mean the president of Pakistan is also president of Great Britain PLC?

[Tokyo-Saint]

I would allow freedom of movement between western european countries, but not between wester european countries and poor (mainly ex easter block countries). We've already been swamped with poles etc. Far too many have flooded in.

 

As I said, relaxed freedom of movement but not total. I think that they/we should have more relaxed rules than non EU countries to study in each others countries and it should be easier to get work visas, if you can bring something to the economy (both them coming here and us going there).

 

I also agree 100% about NZ, Australia and Canada.

[dune]

not too sure we share the same head of state with pakistan..????

 

 

I'm just making the point that the next generation of bulgarians will integrate like the Poles that came over during and after WW2. Pakistanis will never integrate, as is shown by the apartheid by choice ghetos in our cities.

[pap]

Did Britain not give the Poles full residence rights long before most other European Nations?

Anyway I think the flux is now negative with more Poles going home or elsewhere in Europe than entering Britain.

Do not forget that Germany has a deficit of nigh on 200,000 workers per year.Why would Poles stay in Britain when they can be better off in Germany.Then again as usual I doubt that it will be the most qualified that stay behind and the least qualified that

go to Germany.

 

We did. We could have insisted that the new Eastern European residents were prevented from living and working in Britain for seven years. We waived that option, probably because business wanted it and after seven years, you can't prevent it anyway.

 

As for why Poles aren't living it up in Germany, historical enmity probably has a lot to do with that.

[pap]

I'm just making the point that the next generation of bulgarians will integrate like the Poles that came over during and after WW2. Pakistanis will never integrate, as is shown by the apartheid by choice ghetos in our cities.

 

That's a load of sh*t mate.

 

I say this as a relatively white bloke with a Pakistani grandfather.

[dune]

That's a load of sh*t mate.

 

I say this as a relatively white bloke with a Pakistani grandfather.

 

An exception to the rule.

 

Multiculturalism is a failed experiment.

[Tokyo-Saint]

An exception to the rule.

 

Multiculturalism is a failed experiment.

 

Are we going back to the Romans, the Vikings, the Normans here? Just when does being 'British' start from in your book?

[pap]

An exception to the rule.

 

Multiculturalism is a failed experiment.

 

Then there are tons of exceptions on my estate in Southampton, dune.

 

Oddly enough, we knew pretty much every "family of colour" on that estate. Most of the kids from those families ended up marrying English people. Got quite a few friends from Cantell who also have roots in the Indian subcontinent. Many of them have married white kids too.

 

Can't deny that there are areas where there are massive areas of single nationalities though, and if multiculturalism is a failure, that's where it's failing the most.

[hypochondriac]

Every pole living in Britain that I have spoken to (about 15-20) have told me that they think immigration into Britain is ridiculous. Fair play to them for coming, if I was in their situation I would do the same. The problem is the system is stupid.

[pap]

Every pole living in Britain that I have spoken to (about 15-20) have told me that they think immigration into Britain is ridiculous. Fair play to them for coming, if I was in their situation I would do the same. The problem is the system is stupid.

 

I'd agree. I've long said that the problem isn't immigration itself, just the volume of it and the problems that bring. We've needed to catch our breath as a country for around 40 years now. We do need to move away from multiculturalism ( as used in the sense that Britain can support multiple, simultaneous cultures ), and start thinking about national unity and identifying the things that we share.

 

That's impossible with an ever-expanding EU that creates millions of economic migrants every time a relatively impoverished country joins the European Union.

[Window Cleaner]

Anyway the IMF,BCE and FESF should never allowed the Greeks to have elections Turkeys don't vote for Christmas.

[pap]

Anyway the IMF,BCE and FESF should never allowed the Greeks to have elections Turkeys don't vote for Christmas.

 

Ah, c'mon. We can't go around denying democracy to people on the basis that they might not do what we want. Thought it was bloody shocking that technocrat governments were imposed on Greece and Italy in the first place, from a pure point of principle perspective.

[Tokyo-Saint]

Anyway the IMF,BCE and FESF should never allowed the Greeks to have elections Turkeys don't vote for Christmas.

 

Haha I get your point but really? Let's tell one of the founders of democracy that they can't vote anymore? I dont think so.

 

Tell them clearly that if you vote this way, this will happen - yes

Tell them that democracy is dead - no

[dubai_phil]

Well TDD, look what you started now

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/bahrain/9264870/Gulf-considers-Bahrain-and-Saudi-Arabia-union.html

 

[h=1]Gulf considers Bahrain and Saudi Arabia union

[/h] [h=2]Gulf leaders gathered in Riyadh on Monday to discuss developing their six-nation council into a union, a Saudi proposal likely to start with the kingdom and unrest-hit Bahrain. [/h]

 

In a word.

 

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

[Thedelldays]

the new french leader already gobbling off about Germany...

 

and it begins..

[Lord Duckhunter]

I watched the Michael Portillo programme on the Euro last night. He travelled to Greece & Germany and spoke to various people and politicans about the Euro. Everybody he spoke to wanted to stay in the Euro from the man on the street to the Greek finance minister. The thing that surprised me the most was the feeling was the same in Germany, they were all committed to the Euro and the EU as a whole. After seeing that, I'm not as sure as I was that the Greeks will leave.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01hllyd/This_World_Michael_Portillos_Great_Euro_Crisis/

[buctootim]

the new french leader already gobbling off about Germany...

 

and it begins..

 

Who pays the piper calls the tune. Not sure which part of that France and Greece dont get.

[pap]

The Greeks are apparently heading into new elections, having failed to form a national unity government. According to this Guardian article, some are concerned that Greece will run out of money before the June elections.

 

I've also heard some commentators speculating that fresh elections will only exacerbate the chances of a resolution with the EU, saying that the nascent hard-left parties will get an even bigger share of the vote when the Greeks go to the polls, and they are resolutely against the bailout plans.

 

Once again, it's a f*cking shambles for capitalism. Whole country messed up, parents putting their kids into care because they can't afford to keep them. I know, I know - the Greeks have brought a lot of this on themselves - spunking EU cash on swimming pools instead of the infrastructure work it was intended for was bloody shameless. Also not sure whether its equivalent of the Inland Revenue was entirely on the ball. On a pure debt front - I have a bit more sympathy; you can never get into debt if no-one lends you money. We're all assessed on our ability to pay back bills, yet somehow, Greece was able to borrow billions with no clear means of paying it back.

 

It's a clusterf*ck of failures, basically. The Euro evangelists wanted the project to work so badly that they ignored the obvious disparities between various economies, and were blind to the fact that there will always be some that will wilfully abuse any systems you put in place.

Edited 15 May, 2012 by pap

[bridge too far]

According to a pundit on the news earlier, there is little chance of growth in Greece as all the money being pumpedinto the Greek economy is just going to pay off the lending banks. The pundit was suggesting that any future bailouts should come from the central banks (e.g. the ECB) with a view to underpinning the infrastructure and thereby delivering some growth and jobs.

[Lord Duckhunter]

Whole country messed up, parents putting their kids into care because they can't afford to keep them. I know, I know - the Greeks have brought a lot of this on themselves - spunking EU cash on swimming pools instead of the infrastructure work it was intended for was bloody shameless. Also not sure whether it's equivalent of the Inland Revenue was entirely on the ball. On a pure debt front - I have a bit more sympathy; you can never get into debt if no-one lends you money. We're all assessed on our ability to pay back bills, yet somehow, Greece was able to borrow billions with no clear means of paying it back.

 

It's a clusterf*ck of failures, basically. The Euro evangelists wanted the project to work so badly that they ignored the obvious disparities between various economies, and were blind to the fact that there will always be some that will wilfully abuse any systems you put in place.

 

It's really really sad what's happenening to the Greek people. I have been there a few times and they are wonderful & friendly people.

 

The Portillo programme was really enlightening. The problem was they could borrow money at "German rates" and money was easy to come by. The big point made was that there was a clause in the Maastricht Treaty that there would be no bail out if Euro Zone Countries overreached themselves. The fact was that the markets never believed that, they always knew that the German's and the rest of the Euro Zone would bail out any country that got into difficulty. They therefore lent money to the Greeks, knowing that they couldn't afford it, but knowing that there would be a bail out and they would get most of their money back.The markets knew that the "project" was more important than any rules.

 

The other point made was over ordinary Greek business' and their tax issues. It was said that the Greek tax collection system is a shambles and not even computorised. What happened is that people didn't pay VAT (I think they said it was 25%), and those people are able to undercut everyone else. Therefore they all dodge their VAT because if they dont, they dont get the business and they go bang. It was said that they are not corrupt, but that the system corrupts them.

[dune]

The Spanish Francoists are banging the Nationalist drum ever louder.

 

http://www.chronicle.gi/headlines_details.php?id=24876

 

And hardening the resolve of the Gibraltarians for another generation.

 

http://www.chronicle.gi/headlines_details.php?id=24866