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Tomorrows attendance


Turkish

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You keep going on about "turning fans away". That simply wouldn't happen and didn't happen last time Saints were in the Premier League. Saints sold tickets to season ticket holders and members, for some games it didn't even reach general sale before it sold out. Once a game is sold out you don't need to "turn away" people because there are aware there is nothing to buy.

 

 

What do you count as "compelling evidence"?

 

Why wouldn't they see a return on it? It adds value to the club for the point in the future that they sell it on. If it did cost £36 million, the stadium could well be in place for decades to come. The money would be recouped by the club. In any case £36m is small change to a billionaire and as it is the estate of Liebherr owning the club it may have been his wish to see his money used to improve the future of the club and its infrastructure.

 

So you are telling me that in 2004 the second the final ticket was sold not one of these 12,000 chomping at the bit to fill a bigger stadium attempted to buy one? Are you telling me 12,000 didn't bother getting tickets, becoming members etc to see a team in its best period since 1985? But now, with a bigger staidum will be desperate for tickets every week to make it worthwhile to expand? We regularly have 8,000 empty seats now, top of the league, availbility isn't a problem now, so where are they? The missing 20,000 you claim are desperate to see us play.

 

So how do you propse the money is recouped? We've proven on the other thread we cold potentiall sell out for 5 big games a season but it was EASY to get tickets for smaller games with a 32k capacity. How do you propose the Liebherrs get their £36m investment back for 12,000 seats which will be largely empty for 3/4s of the games in a season.

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Behave. It is FAR easier getting a club of Saints size from League One back to the top of the Championship, then it is to get such a club competing for Champs League places. Football is a funny old game and none of us never know what will happen in the future, but I reckon if you're expecting Champions League football at St Marys in the near future you're going to be sorely disappointed.

 

Did I say it would be easy? No I didn't.

 

Did I compare getting from 68th to 21st with 21st to 5th or 4th? No I didn't.

 

What I said was that his ambition and the resources required to achieve those ambitions have so far been met. So why should you doubt him heavily when he reveals further ambitions? He has done little to cause people to questions he has the resources to match ambitions so far.

 

Never in the history of the club have Saints had owners with both ambition or the resources to help achieve those ambitions. Rupert Lowe for example was never really that ambitious with Saints and he didn't invest anything of note into the club. We have entered unknown territory of a Saints owner with ambition and resources.

 

Rupert Lowe achieved a cup final, 8th place finish and 30k+ averages under his tenure without investment. Lets see what Cortese/Liebherr can do with investment...

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So you are telling me that in 2004 the second the final ticket was sold not one of these 12,000 chomping at the bit to fill a bigger stadium attempted to buy one? Are you telling me 12,000 didn't bother getting tickets, becoming members etc to see a team in its best period since 1985?

 

So how do you propse the money is recouped? We've proven on the other thread we cold potentiall sell out for 5 big games a season but it was EASY to get tickets for smaller games with a 32k capacity. How do you propose the Liebherrs get their £36m investment back for 12,000 seats which will be largely empty for 3/4s of the games in a season.

 

If the stadium is improved, the value of the club goes up. They recoup the money when the club is sold. They also benefit from higher average attendances up until the point it is sold.

 

It wasn't "easy" to get tickets for a number of the lesser Premier League matches. Many sold out, some didn't even reach general sale.

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If the stadium is improved, the value of the club goes up. They recoup the money when the club is sold. They also benefit from higher average attendances up until the point it is sold.

 

It wasn't "easy" to get tickets for a number of the lesser Premier League matches. Many sold out, some didn't even reach general sale.

 

It's not being improved, it's being expanded. All it will provide is more debt to a new buyer to take on. Going on that basis then why not expand to 100,000, it'll make the club worth more and they can get the money back when they sell up.

 

You are wrong. people have said on the other thread they had "no problem" getting tickets for smaller games but bigger ones could be more difficult. It was easy.

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It's not being improved, it's being expanded. All it will provide is more debt to a new buyer to take on. Going on that basis then why not expand to 100,000, it'll make the club worth more and they can get the money back when they sell up.

 

I'm sure you have previously conceded Saints would get higher attendances than 32k for some games. That would result in a higher average attendance and more income. A stadium improvement is for the long term, if St Mary's went upto 44k in 2015 it would probably be similar in 2035. Lots of game in that time to bring in extra revenue plus the value of Saints as an asset goes up if the infrastructure is improved.

 

people have said on the other thread they had "no problem" getting tickets for smaller games but bigger ones could be more difficult. It was easy.

 

And as I said that is nonsense. Even games against the smaller sides sold out without reaching general sale. If the brought tickets before it sold out, of course they wouldn't have a problem. It is only once it sells out you have a problem, and St Mary's did, on many occasions against big and small teams.

 

In any case, how do you know it wouldn't be improved (I'm guessing you mean in quality of other areas), just expanded? Why does an expansion of infrastructure not mean a higher sell on value for the club?

 

If you run a B&B and build another room and rent it out, you get extra rent, plus if you sell the B&B you can sell it for more than if you didn't have the extra bedroom.

Edited by Matthew Le God
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I'm sure you have previously conceded Saints would get higher attendances than 32k for some games. That would result in a higher average attendance and more income. A stadium improvement is for the long term, if St Mary's went upto 44k in 2015 it would probably be similar in 2035. Lots of game in that time to bring in extra revenue plus the value of Saints as an asset goes up if the infrastructure is improved.

 

 

 

And as I said that is nonsense. Even games against the smaller sides sold out without reaching general sale. If the brought tickets before it sold out, of course they wouldn't have a problem. It is only once it sells out you have a problem, and St Mary's did, on many occasions against big and small teams.

 

In any case, how do you know it wouldn't be improved (I'm guessing you mean in quality of other areas), just expanded? Why does an expansion of infrastructure not mean a higher sell on value for the club?

 

How do you know it will be improved, not just expanded?

 

We would get around 35-40k for the big games. For most games such as Bolton, Stoke, Fulham etc though there would be around 10,000 empty seats. WE've already seen on the other thread that it was "no problem" getting tickets for these games.

 

Rather than expanding to 44k and spending £36m, why not just put the price up by a fiver? if it still sells out put it up by another fiver. Until you're selling 32,000 ticket for £40 each, rather than 35,000 for £30, without having to shell out £36m for the honour. This will also put the value of the business up, all this income with very little debt. Rather than a little more income with a massive debt.

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Has anyone actually got the figures that back up either side of this "debate"?

 

In other words, how many games per season would we need to sell out in a 44,000 seater stadium to cover the cost of expanding from a 33,000 seater stadium?

 

How many games? 5? 10? 20?

 

Perhaps if we knew the ACTUAL economics of the situation we'd be in a position to have a sesnible discussion about it....

 

There again, this is the Saints Web Forum....

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How do you know it will be improved, not just expanded?

 

We would get around 35-40k for the big games. For most games such as Bolton, Stoke, Fulham etc though there would be around 10,000 empty seats. WE've already seen on the other thread that it was "no problem" getting tickets for these games.

 

Rather than expanding to 44k and spending £36m, why not just put the price up by a fiver? if it still sells out put it up by another fiver. Until you're selling 32,000 ticket for £40 each, rather than 35,000 for £30, without having to shell out £36m for the honour. This will also put the value of the business up, all this income with very little debt. Rather than a little more income with a massive debt.

 

You keep talking about the other thread saying people found it easy, but that isn't the case. Many games against lesser Premier League clubs sold out without going on general sale.

 

It is easy to buy a ticket when a game hasn't sold out. Had they left it later and the game had sold out, they wouldn't have found it easy. It is nonsense logic you use. Saints Clark has already attempted to point this out to you.

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Has anyone actually got the figures that back up either side of this "debate"?

 

In other words, how many games per season would we need to sell out in a 44,000 seater stadium to cover the cost of expanding from a 33,000 seater stadium?

 

How many games? 5? 10? 20?

 

Perhaps if we knew the ACTUAL economics of the situation we'd be in a position to have a sesnible discussion about it....

 

Well it depends how many years of selling more seats you look at. If St Mary's is expanded, it isn't for one season it is now larger for every season from that point onwards.

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Has anyone actually got the figures that back up either side of this "debate"?

 

In other words, how many games per season would we need to sell out in a 45,000 seater stadium to cover the cost of expanding from a 33,000 seater stadium?

 

How many games? 5? 10? 20?

 

Perhaps if we knew the ACTUAL economics of the situation we'd be in a position to have a sesnible discussion about it....

 

£36m to expand. At the current price of £30 per ticket it would bring in £360k additional revenue per game. To just cover the cost we would need to sell out for 100 games to cover to cost. 19 home games a season in the premier league mean it would take 6 season, selling out EVERY GAME to recover the outlay.

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You keep talking about the other thread saying people found it easy, but that isn't the case. Many games against lesser Premier League clubs sold out without going on general sale.

 

It is easy to buy a ticket when a game hasn't sold out. Had they left it later and the game had sold out, they wouldn't have found it easy. It is nonsense logic you use. Saints Clark has already attempted to point this out to you.

 

because people said on the other thread they had "no problem" getting tickets for small clubs. Stop reading only what you want to read.

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£36m to expand. At the current price of £30 per ticket it would bring in £360k additional revenue per game. To just cover the cost we would need to sell out for 100 games to cover to cost. 19 home games a season in the premier league mean it would take 6 season, selling out EVERY GAME to recover the outlay.

 

What if a percentage of that "£36m" was financed by a gift from the Liebherrs (rather than loaned)? Or indeed was already provisioned for in the fund that Markus has supposedly left in trust to the club?

 

Or....what if part of that "£36m" is to be covered by a long term stadium renaming sponsorship deal?

 

Until one knows where the "£36m" is coming from it's impossible to come up with a strawman model of how long it would take to pay back.

Edited by trousers
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Well it depends how many years of selling more seats you look at. If St Mary's is expanded, it isn't for one season it is now larger for every season from that point onwards.

 

Exactly...yet another variable to add to the hitherto unknown equation...

Edited by trousers
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What if a percentage of that "£36m" was financed by a gift from the Liebherrs (rather than loaned)? Or indeed was already provisioned for in the fund that Markus has supposedly left in trust to the club?

 

Or....what if part of that "£36m" is to be covered by a long term stadium renaming sponsorship deal?

 

Until one knows where the "£36m" is coming from it's impossible to come up with a strawman model of how long it would take to pay back.

 

There is no such thing as a gift in business, it would have to be payed back at some point. In any case do you think the family would think the gift was a bit ungratefully recieved if it is not being used most weeks?

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There is no such thing as a gift in business, it would have to be payed back at some point. In any case do you think the family would think the gift was a bit ungratefully recieved if it is not being used most weeks?

 

Ok....the "ridiculous" gift notion aside....how will the £36m be funded? You'd have to agree to needing to know that before coming up with a payback model....no?

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I get the feeling Turkish is a wanna be skate.. always harping on about what a small club we are.. I think in a few years we will need around 40k not yet but if we are to push for rhe top half of the prem then demand will be there. Maybe we will be too big for Turkish then and he might disappear else where.... here's hoping .

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I get the feeling Turkish is a wanna be skate.. always harping on about what a small club we are.. I think in a few years we will need around 40k not yet but if we are to push for rhe top half of the prem then demand will be there. Maybe we will be too big for Turkish then and he might disappear else where.... here's hoping .

 

The typical TSW cop out. Unless you're deluded happy clappy mong you must be a skate FFS. I dont think we are a small club, but we aren't one of the biggest clubs in the country. Only 4 clubs are getting 44k or more and whilst Spurs and Chelsea can argue its due to restricted capacity are we as big as them? Aston Villa and Everton are far bigger clubs than us and only averaging 33k and 29k respectively this season. Why do people think we will suddenly get 44k? Still what do i know, i must be skate for not believing there are 20,000 fans just waiting to come to SMS every week once we get promoted.

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Aston Villa and Everton are far bigger clubs than us and only averaging 33k and 29k respectively this season.

 

You make this all far too easy.

 

If Everton are "far bigger", why are they averaging less than Saints did in every Premier League campaign at St Mary's (including the year we came 20th and were relegated)? Same with Villa, had St Mary's been the size of Villa Park, Saints would have averaged more than 33k. All it would have taken is a higher than 32k attendance against Man Utd and Arsenal to do that.

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Ok....the "ridiculous" gift notion aside....how will the £36m be funded? You'd have to agree to needing to know that before coming up with a payback model....no?
#

 

I wasn't coming up with a payback model, just saying we would need to sell out 100 games to cover the cost. It's nothing to do with a payback model. It's everything to do with the FACT that there is NO EVIDENCE WHATSOEVER that we can fill a 44k stadium regularly. Not a shread of it. We can all say what we think we might need but the cold hard facts are that there are No waiting list for season ticket holders and never has been. No thousands of fans having the gate shut on them every week and never has been. Until we have that 32,000 is sufficent.

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It's everything to do with the FACT that there is NO EVIDENCE WHATSOEVER that we can fill a 44k stadium regularly

 

Who said anything about needing to fill it "regularly"? (from the viable economics perspective)

 

Depends what you mean by "regularly" I guess.....once every three months is "regular" (as is once a fortnight)

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You make this all far too easy.

 

If Everton are "far bigger", why are they averaging less than Saints did in every Premier League campaign at St Mary's (including the year we came 20th and were relegated)?

 

What are you on about you loon? Here are Evertons crowds in the premier league years.

 

http://www.toffeeweb.com/history/records/attendances.asp

 

 

Clown.

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Who said anything about needing to fill it regularly? (from the viable economics perspective)

 

Exactly!

 

Close to 44k for...

 

Man Utd

Arsenal

Man City

Chelsea

Spurs

Liverpool

 

34k to 38k for...

 

Villa

Sunderland

Everton

Newcastle

 

30k to 34k for the other 9 games

Edited by Matthew Le God
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The typical TSW cop out. Unless you're deluded happy clappy mong you must be a skate FFS. I dont think we are a small club, but we aren't one of the biggest clubs in the country. Only 4 clubs are getting 44k or more and whilst Spurs and Chelsea can argue its due to restricted capacity are we as big as them? Aston Villa and Everton are far bigger clubs than us and only averaging 33k and 29k respectively this season. Why do people think we will suddenly get 44k? Still what do i know, i must be skate for not believing there are 20,000 fans just waiting to come to SMS every week once we get promoted.

 

Who cares? For something that isn't happening, and is really boring, you're going on about it quite a lot.

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Exactly!

 

Close to 44k for...

 

Man Utd

Arsneal

Man City

Chelsea

Spurs

Liverpool

 

34k to 38k for...

 

Villa

Sunderland

Everton

Newcastle

 

30k - 34k for the other 9 games

 

Brillaint!! So for 1/2 the games we'll sell little more than we do already and have 10000 empty seats. Well worth expanding. :rolleyes:

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To be honest Turkish it wasn't that long ago you wanted to fight half the posters on here.. so maybe u are a skate or you cant handle your drink.. Liverpool would also get a lot more fans with a bigger ground as would a few other clubs.. Im not pretending we are one of the biggest clubs nor am I saying we need extra seats now as clearly we don't. But we will need more if and hopefully when we are pushing for a regular European place. That might be 5 years from now or 10....or we may never reach that level. But if we do the demand WILL be there.

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Did I say it would be easy? No I didn't. Did I say you said it would be easy? No.

Did I compare getting from 68th to 21st with 21st to 5th or 4th? No I didn't. Yes, through inference.

What I said was that his ambition and the resources required to achieve those ambitions have so far been met. So why should you doubt him heavily when he reveals further ambitions? He has done little to cause people to questions he has the resources to match ambitions so far. We have a ticket office that can't manage selling 3k tickets for an away game and a team that looked toothless against Doncaster and you're thinking of our Champions League ambition?

Never in the history of the club have Saints had owners with both ambition or the resources to help achieve those ambitions. Rupert Lowe for example was never really that ambitious with Saints and he didn't invest anything of note into the club. We have entered unknown territory of a Saints owner with ambition and resources. We didn't spend the money in the summer to get quality back-up for Lambert and weren't able to sign any of our centre backs which were a key summer target.

 

Rupert Lowe achieved a cup final, 8th place finish and 30k+ averages under his tenure without investment. Lets see what Cortese/Liebherr can do with investment...

How much (obviously its a rough guess) do you think Saints would have to spend on their squad to turn it into a Champions League level squad? Just out of interest.
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Brillaint!! So for 1/2 the games we'll sell little more than we do already and have 10000 empty seats. Well worth expanding. :rolleyes:

 

Quick.....call Mr Cortese now to tell him his (supposed) staduim expansion business plan won't hang together...the SWF sleuths come to the rescue again....

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Boxing day's always an attractive fixture, hardly a fair test.

 

Look, clearly most of Turkish's posts are on the wind-up, but there's a point behind this one. We know for a fact that there's enough match-attending Saints fans to fill St. Mary's and then some, but it takes an occasion as big as Wembley to get them all together at the same time. Even in the Prem you're not going to have the pull to get all of those people to turn up week-in, week-out. Anybody that thinks we're suddenly going to double the number of season ticket holders if we manage promotion is a little delusional, IMO.

 

I guess the truth will become even more clear in the second half of the season - if we're still up near the top and regularly selling out then there might be a bit more of a case for an expansion. Strikes me of counting chickens before they're hatched to even suggest it anyway. No guarantee of promotion, no guarantee of a strong enough level of support, no guarantee of Premiership stability even if we get there... I'm one of the optimists but it's one thing to plan ahead and quite another to make that sort of investment, risking leaving the club with a crippling bill and half-empty stadium.

 

But that IS my point. Tomorrow's game is hairdly a fair test when we already know that it is on TV with a lunchtime kick-off and only a few hundred away fans. In my opinion it is about as fair a test as Boxing Day, hence my comment.

 

The OP even waited to the day before the game, to make sure there wasn't a surge in sales before putting it forward as a benchmark for stadium expansion.

 

i am sure that I would be met with equal cynicism if i put forward the boxing day match as a pointer that we do need to expand the stadium with the OP leading the way.

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But that IS my point. Tomorrow's game is hairdly a fair test when we already know that it is on TV with a lunchtime kick-off and only a few hundred away fans. In my opinion it is about as fair a test as Boxing Day, hence my comment.

 

The OP even waited to the day before the game, to make sure there wasn't a surge in sales before putting it forward as a benchmark for stadium expansion.

 

i am sure that I would be met with equal cynicism if i put forward the boxing day match as a pointer that we do need to expand the stadium with the OP leading the way.

 

Wont we have any lunchtime live on TV kick offs in the premier league then?

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No one game is a gauge of stadium expansion plans. Why the hell would it be? We'd never expand while in the championship. We're in the championship. So championship attendances mean nothing.

 

To expand we'll have to sell out the majority of top flight games, should we get there. I seriously doubt when that time comes, they'll look back at the Saints-Blackpool championship fixture of 2011 to make their decision.

This. It's a question for the Premiership, when we get there, and if we're starting to get sell-outs more regularly over the course of the season. For now we should concentrate on getting there and forget any stadium plans.

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Putting the stadium funding for increased capacity to one side for the minute, any one know how much the Section 106 costs would be to facilitate stadium expansion and whether the City Council would actually agree to the change in current planning arrangements for the stadium?

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a slight increase to 36k would probably be a more realistic capacity, I just don't think we have a big enough support base to warrant anything much larger (although a couple of top 4 finishes in the prem may change that!). All clubs will have a natural maximum attendance and all clubs will have a mix of weekly and occassional attendees - even manure etc.

 

I do think we'd regularly see an empty looking stadium if we went to 44k which would make for a ****e atmosphere.

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a slight increase to 36k would probably be a more realistic capacity, I just don't think we have a big enough support base to warrant anything much larger (although a couple of top 4 finishes in the prem may change that!). All clubs will have a natural maximum attendance and all clubs will have a mix of weekly and occassional attendees - even manure etc.

 

I do think we'd regularly see an empty looking stadium if we went to 44k which would make for a ****e atmosphere.

 

That god for that, finally someone sensible and realistic on the thread.

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We could fill a 44k stadium if ticket prices were reduced

 

But then we'd lose even more money,English clubs in general pay their players far too much money for football to be offered to the public at "reasonable" prices. The days of a £10 ticket for everybody are long gone. When we're paying our star centre forward or star centre half the median NPC wage ..well then maybe we can reduce prices. A bigger stadium costs more to run and has to be financed, just look at the mess the last bigger stadium caused us.

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We could fill a 44k stadium if ticket prices were reduced

 

Brilliant, so we spend £36m expanding them reduce the ticket price to £15 or £20 to fill it. 32,000 at £30 with no debt or 44,000 at £15 with £36m debt? Let me think about that one.

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Do you struggle to take Cortese seriously? He is the one spending time and money planning for a 44k stadium, not me. Do you not think he has more information available to him than you or I?

 

I think the chances we will see an announcement concerning a stadium increase or even relocation relatively soon considering what Cortese has been saying already.

 

Can you please stop quoting Dorkish, as I have him on ignore? I don't wish to re-read him regurgititating the same old crap ad-nauseum. As you rightly say though, if Cortese decides to expand and is backed up by the Liebherr family, then Dorkish can cough and splutter all he likes about what an idiotic waste of money it all is, but it will all be p*ss and wind against something that is a fait accompli. If it doesn't happen, then he can console himself if he likes, that his opinions were instrumental in Cortese's decision.

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Attendences at any club depend on three main things:-

1. Geographical area/Available fanbase. Teams like Saints have only one major club in the city and surrounding area so have a wider available fanbase than say Brentford who are just one club in many in a large city.

2. Proximity of PL or 'Glamour' club. Brentford again have Chelsea, Arsenal, and even QPR within relatively close proximity. Tranmere have Liverpool/Everton.

3. How well team performing.

 

The growth of a football club is not in its present fans, but in attracting new predominantly young supporters.

Saints have no other major club within many miles so their potential fanbase although often covering more rural areas is still quite large. Saints have numerous seasonticket holders from Salisbury, Andover/Winchester/Poole/ Fareham already. We also have no Glamour clubs to which new fans/kids can easily go. My nephew for instance as a young kid perported to be a Manure fan, but after taking him to St Marys he is now a Saints fan. In the dark days of our close demise and shortly after our crowds dipped to closer to 15,000 than 20,000, but now with success we are getting 10,000 more than that. When we again reach the PL we have the potential of 40,000 with the right development of new supporters.

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:lol::lol::lol: /\ Dorkish. That always cracks me up. I nearly spat my tea out all over my computer screen because i was laughing so much. You really are going to put warnings up if you're gonna be so funny Wes Bender, people will think i'm mental. :lol::lol::lol::lol:
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:lol::lol::lol: /\ Dorkish. That always cracks me up. I nearly spat my tea out all over my computer screen because i was laughing so much. You really are going to put warnings up if you're gonna be so funny Wes Bender, people will think i'm mental. :lol::lol::lol::lol:

 

But he can't read that because he has you on ignore. Oh.

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Anyway as Wes T has said. If NC has already started very early informal questions of Southampton Planners, he must believe there is a reason we will need a bigger stadium, and there is a sound financial case for at least investigating the possibility. No one but NC and ML 's family know what if any financial legacy SFC was granted or has subsequently been promised, so none of us know under what terms any money will be borrowed / raised/ or even donated.

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£36m to expand. At the current price of £30 per ticket it would bring in £360k additional revenue per game. To just cover the cost we would need to sell out for 100 games to cover to cost. 19 home games a season in the premier league mean it would take 6 season, selling out EVERY GAME to recover the outlay.

 

going by your figures turkish if would make every sense to expand if you could recoup the money in six years. even if you only sell out 50% of games it would only take 12 years, on a 36m outlay thats a very good return. if you factor in the extra revenue the prem will pull in it's a 'no brainer'. in real terms with finance for the loan, writeoffs against tax, interest over say 20 years etc the real cost would be more like double the 36m you mention, but even then it would be realistic to clear the debt in say 15 years so it would still be viable. its a long term view that is required, like buying a house etc. i think the key is not getting relegated again....build it and they will come....imho

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going by your figures turkish if would make every sense to expand if you could recoup the money in six years. even if you only sell out 50% of games it would only take 12 years, on a 36m outlay thats a very good return. if you factor in the extra revenue the prem will pull in it's a 'no brainer'. in real terms with finance for the loan, writeoffs against tax, interest over say 20 years etc the real cost would be more like double the 36m you mention, but even then it would be realistic to clear the debt in say 15 years so it would still be viable. its a long term view that is required, like buying a house etc. i think the key is not getting relegated again....build it and they will come....imho

 

If you're creditworthy and can take advantage of bargain basement interest rates, its a great time to borrow and invest....

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