NickG Posted 30 November, 2011 Posted 30 November, 2011 11/12, after 19 games we are top on 42 points, finishing....? 10/11, after 19 games QPR were top with 41 points, finishing top with 88. 9/10, after 19 games, Newcastle were top with 42 points (not as good GD as us tho!), finishing top with 102. 08/09 after 19 games, Wolves were top with 46 points, finishing top with 90 points. (Birmingham were 2nd on 40 points and finished 2nd with 83 points) 07/08 after 19 games, Watford were top with 36 points, finishing 6th with 70 points, (WBA finished top, after 19 games were 2nd on 35 points, finishing with 81 points) 06/07 after 19 games, three teams were on 37 points (Birmingham, Cardiff and PNE) B'ham finished 2nd on 86, Sunderland won the league after being 16th, 24 points after 19 games. 05/06 after 19 games top two were Reading and Sheff U on 44 and 45 points - same two finished top two on 106 and 90 points. 04/05 after 19 games Wigan were top with 39 points finishing 2nd with 87. So in last 7 seasons our point score after 19 games has only been bettered twice - both times teams were promoted. The team top after 19 games usually goes up. We are clearly ahead of schedule for automatic promotion. Looking at the last few years, something around 80 points is likely to be the requirement for promotion. That leaves us 38 points to gain. 13 homes games, 14 away games left. Something like : H W9 D2 L2 = 29 A W2 D3 L9 = 10 total 39 points - should be enough.
NickG Posted 30 November, 2011 Author Posted 30 November, 2011 lets enjoy an impressive points total after 19 ffs, previous seasons give perspective to how well we are doing. pretty clear what thread was from title
sotonjoe Posted 30 November, 2011 Posted 30 November, 2011 Interesting post. Not sure why you got the usual "ffs" moan from some. Good to try and put our progress in some sort of context, no matter how hypothetical.
London Saint Posted 30 November, 2011 Posted 30 November, 2011 Doubt we will lose 9 of our remaining 14 away games !!! thats more like relegation form than promotion material.... Apart from that I can see your argument in that we are ahead of schedule for automatic promotion I dont really care if we finish 1st or 2nd, as long as we can maintain that gap between ourselves and 3rd...
Andy Durman Posted 30 November, 2011 Posted 30 November, 2011 I did the same stats this morning. On paper it looks good. One game at a time though and I think we're being found out a little now so the situation requires great management.
Golden Balls Posted 30 November, 2011 Posted 30 November, 2011 All looks good but its still only November (just!) and there is a lot of football to be played. I think if we are still there in January I will start to believe. We need to invest in some key areas to make sure we see the push though.
Supersubpuckett Posted 30 November, 2011 Posted 30 November, 2011 Put our performance in context of the high quality of the league this year, makes it even more impressive.
Window Cleaner Posted 30 November, 2011 Posted 30 November, 2011 14 away games left and if we can pick up points at the same rate as we have up to the present our home tally is extremely do-able. 12 from 9 would give us 18 or 19 away points from 14 games thus leaving us to get another 22 or 23 from our remaining 13 home games,why we could even lose a few and still have enough for automatic promotion.
Aardvark Posted 30 November, 2011 Posted 30 November, 2011 Lets just take each game as it comes FFs. Yes, FFS let's report NickG to the Internet Police for suggesting that anyone should discuss hypothetical scenarios on a website chat forum! Whatever next? Good grief........
jasonb Posted 30 November, 2011 Posted 30 November, 2011 Well I'm officially excited and believing... why the hell not!
NickG Posted 1 December, 2011 Author Posted 1 December, 2011 All looks good but its still only November (just!) and there is a lot of football to be played. I think if we are still there in January I will start to believe. We need to invest in some key areas to make sure we see the push though. Know its early days, that is one reason I looked at this - how do teams starting as we do usually finish - answer is not many start as well as we do and teams top after 19 usually go up. Still optimistic rather than expecting!
The9 Posted 1 December, 2011 Posted 1 December, 2011 Nevertheless, the answer is "yes, we will need lots of away points" unless our home form is sustained at record-breaking levels.
red&white56 Posted 1 December, 2011 Posted 1 December, 2011 I appreciate the analysis - it's not very often that we go to the top of a league and stay there for some time, so I plan to enjoy the trip! But being a Saints fan I can also appreciate the desire from some not to tempt fate.
Ian the Red Posted 1 December, 2011 Posted 1 December, 2011 (edited) Yes, was looking at this as well!! A couple of interesting points from the last 3 seasons, the two promoted teams at half way point and end of season: 2010/11 QPR from the 1st 23 games picked up 47pts; from the last 23 games 41pts Norwich from the 1st 23 games picked up 39pts; from the last 23 games 45pts 2009/10 Newcastle from the 1st 23 games picked up 50pts; from the last 23 games 51pts WBA from the 1st 23 games picked up 46pts; from the last 23 games 45pts 2008/09 Wolves from the 1st 23 games picked up 53pts; from the last 23 games 47pts Brum from the 1st 23 games picked up 47pts; from the last 23 games 36pts So we appear to be on course............ Edited 1 December, 2011 by Ian the Red
SNSUN Posted 1 December, 2011 Posted 1 December, 2011 It's also not necessarily about the points Saints get, but how much our rivals slip up. West Ham will push us all the way (or vice versa), but it'd do us a great favour if Leicester, Boro, Birmingham, Cardiff and whoever else drop silly points.
Lord Duckhunter Posted 1 December, 2011 Posted 1 December, 2011 It's also not necessarily about the points Saints get, but how much our rivals slip up. West Ham will push us all the way (or vice versa), but it'd do us a great favour if Leicester, Boro, Birmingham, Cardiff and whoever else drop silly points. I would take West Ham winning every one of their remaining games in return for us to win at their place. I couldn't care less if West Ham run away with it, providing they beat Cardiff, Leicester, Boro and every other top half side. Who cares if we win the league, I dont? After all Brighton didn't get extra points for finishing above us last year.
Window Cleaner Posted 1 December, 2011 Posted 1 December, 2011 I would take West Ham winning every one of their remaining games in return for us to win at their place. I couldn't care less if West Ham run away with it, providing they beat Cardiff, Leicester, Boro and every other top half side. Who cares if we win the league, I dont? After all Brighton didn't get extra points for finishing above us last year. Although our chances would be vastly improved by a lot of draws between our rivals and a lot more draws concerning our rivals. A draw is a nothing result, true it's better than a loss but you need 3 draws to equal 1 win.
damers Posted 1 December, 2011 Posted 1 December, 2011 39 Points out of 27 games if that is enough that is only 1.444444444 points per game. Now that does sound achievable
Deano6 Posted 1 December, 2011 Posted 1 December, 2011 "EXCLUSIVE: statistics show that team sitting top of the league is in good position for promotion"
Wes Tender Posted 1 December, 2011 Posted 1 December, 2011 How ironically amusing that somebody who advises on the wisdom of taking one game at a time (FFS), was prepared last season at a similar or earlier stage to state that we had blown our chances of going up a division.
Ruffo Posted 1 December, 2011 Posted 1 December, 2011 We need to beat newcastles 102 points to prove a point!
sfc4prem Posted 1 December, 2011 Posted 1 December, 2011 But we are starting to be found out. We could so easily slip. We need to re-discover our earlier season form.
NickG Posted 1 December, 2011 Author Posted 1 December, 2011 But we are starting to be found out. We could so easily slip. We need to re-discover our earlier season form. personally would be happy if we keep our current form going rather than re-discovering early season form. last 6 games, 15 points, 2.5 per game. Current form would see us on 110 points -hope we continue to be found out like we are currently!
positivepete Posted 1 December, 2011 Posted 1 December, 2011 http://theseventytwo.com/football-league/championship/2011/11/30/southampton-rack-up-the-points-to-remain-pointless/ Article from the A football league dedicated site
NickG Posted 3 December, 2011 Author Posted 3 December, 2011 11/12, after 19 games we are top on 42 points, finishing....? 10/11, after 19 games QPR were top with 41 points, finishing top with 88. 9/10, after 19 games, Newcastle were top with 42 points (not as good GD as us tho!), finishing top with 102. 08/09 after 19 games, Wolves were top with 46 points, finishing top with 90 points. (Birmingham were 2nd on 40 points and finished 2nd with 83 points) 07/08 after 19 games, Watford were top with 36 points, finishing 6th with 70 points, (WBA finished top, after 19 games were 2nd on 35 points, finishing with 81 points) 06/07 after 19 games, three teams were on 37 points (Birmingham, Cardiff and PNE) B'ham finished 2nd on 86, Sunderland won the league after being 16th, 24 points after 19 games. 05/06 after 19 games top two were Reading and Sheff U on 44 and 45 points - same two finished top two on 106 and 90 points. 04/05 after 19 games Wigan were top with 39 points finishing 2nd with 87. So in last 7 seasons our point score after 19 games has only been bettered twice - both times teams were promoted. The team top after 19 games usually goes up. We are clearly ahead of schedule for automatic promotion. Looking at the last few years, something around 80 points is likely to be the requirement for promotion. That leaves us 38 points to gain. 13 homes games, 14 away games left. Something like : H W9 D2 L2 = 29 A W2 D3 L9 = 10 total 39 points - should be enough. after 20 top with 42 last year, after 20 qpr were top with 41 year before Newcastle top with 45 Don't worry, will go up after winning all home games, don't need away points
S-Clarke Posted 3 December, 2011 Posted 3 December, 2011 We won't win every home game Nick, no chance. And there's no glossing over that our away form is utter pants and I think we all have a right to expect more from that! We're in the position we are because of our home performances, which have been exceptional, but it would be nieve to think we can win all our home games. We won't, and games like today could come back to haunt us if we're still in and around the top 2 come May. I hope they don't, and I believe NA will sort it out and get our away results sorted - I reckon we'll get some stunning results away at WHU/Boro and the like.
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