UKIP set to overtake Lib Dems as 3rd largest party?

[trousers]

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/peteroborne/100115144/as-the-landscape-starts-to-shift-ukip-can-create-political-havoc/

 

"For the metropolitan elite, the party scarcely exists. This is why last Sunday’s YouGov poll showing that support for Farage’s party had crept up to 7 per cent – just one point fewer than the Liberal Democrats – gained no coverage. But the significance of this is very great. I believe that Ukip is about to take over from the Lib Dems as Britain’s third largest political party."

 

"Ukip’s strength is very easy to explain. The leadership of the three mainstream parties have made an error. They are determined to cleave to the centre ground. Ukip alone has the courage to stand outside this cosy alliance and to cause havoc. Meanwhile, it goes without saying that a Tory leader can never win an election so long as the broader Conservative movement is so painfully split."

[pap]

The Lib Dems have been found out. They're a bunch of political opportunists who don't believe in anything.

 

One thing you can say about UKIP is that you know what they stand for. Quite like Farage too - he routinely eviscerates his counterparts on Question Time and Any Questions.

[buctootim]

The parties cleave to the centre ground because thats where the swing voters are. Even if UKIP got up to, say 15%, of the vote, without proportional representation it wont mean a thing. Its almost peverse that the only place they would get 'fair' representation is in European elections because there is a PR system for those.

[hypochondriac]

In regards to that last sentence, dune has been saying that about the Tories for ages in fairness to him. Anyway it's excellent news, the sooner we have more distant ties with Europe the better. You only have to see how the French leader basically said that the voice of democracy gets in the way of the European project to see what it's all about. I'm close to voting UKIP at the next general election though I will see.

[Saintandy666]

Won't happen... when the election comes, due to FPTP, voters will scramble to the main 3/(maybe 2 parties by then!).

[pap]

Won't happen... when the election comes, due to FPTP, voters will scramble to the main 3/(maybe 2 parties by then!).

 

You've got to wonder whether the Tory opposition to AV is going to cost them in the long run. I would imagine they would pick up a lot of UKIP second preference votes.

[View From The Top]

The Lib Dems have been found out. They're a bunch of political opportunists who don't believe in anything.

 

One thing you can say about UKIP is that you know what they stand for. Quite like Farage too - he routinely eviscerates his counterparts on Question Time and Any Questions.

 

Totally.

[saintwarwick]

Won't happen... when the election comes, due to FPTP, voters will scramble to the main 3/(maybe 2 parties by then!).

 

Only ever been main 2 not 3, thew Lib dems have only ever been a fringe player

[dune]

I told you so.

[dune]

Won't happen... when the election comes, due to FPTP, voters will scramble to the main 3/(maybe 2 parties by then!).

 

Like they did in the Barnsley by election?

[Saintandy666]

Like they did in the Barnsley by election?

 

You know full well that in a by election, the results are totally different to what would have been on an actual election day. Protest votes come through as do peoples real preferences as there is no governmental change at stake.

[dune]

You know full well that in a by election, the results are totally different to what would have been on an actual election day. Protest votes come through as do peoples real preferences as there is no governmental change at stake.

 

You do come out with some nonsense. Barnsley is a safe Labour seat so how people choose to vote is irrelevent to governmental change. What we saw in Barnsley was the electorate being utterly disillusioned with the Liberals in power and liking very much what UKIP say.

[derry]

UKIP need to target all the seats held by MPs who voted against the referendum unless that MP pledges to vote for a referendum. The Conservatives need to go along with this. As time goes by it will eventually dawn on them that there won't be much chance of another Lib Dem coalition.

[Saintandy666]

Only ever been main 2 not 3, thew Lib dems have only ever been a fringe player

 

I guess that's a fair point to a degree(as they always have less than Lab/Con, though if you look at the Liberal Democrat voting percentages over the last few decades...

 

2010 - 23%

2005 - 22.1%

2001 - 18.3%

1997 - 16.8%

1992 - 17.8%

1987 - 22.6%

1983 - 25.4%

 

Personally, I wouldn't say that is fringe in relation to percentage votes, but in relation to seats gained, yes they are in the fringe, but that's only because of our unfair electoral system.

[Saintandy666]

You do come out with some nonsense. Barnsley is a safe Labour seat so how people choose to vote is irrelevent to governmental change. What we saw in Barnsley was the electorate being utterly disillusioned with the Liberals in power and liking very much what UKIP say.

 

You're nuts if you think Liberal Democrats are switching to UKIP!

[pap]

UKIP need to target all the seats held by MPs who voted against the referendum unless that MP pledges to vote for a referendum. The Conservatives need to go along with this. As time goes by it will eventually dawn on them that there won't be much chance of another Lib Dem coalition.

 

Cameron would brick it if that happened. For that, and other reasons, I'm in.

[Saintandy666]

You've got to wonder whether the Tory opposition to AV is going to cost them in the long run. I would imagine they would pick up a lot of UKIP second preference votes.

 

Yep, I think the Tories have suffered from that for sure. But the left-wing vote is spilt too between Lib Dems and Labour, so it could go either way.

[pap]

Yep, I think the Tories have suffered from that for sure. But the left-wing vote is spilt too between Lib Dems and Labour, so it could go either way.

 

I honestly don't think the Lib Dems are going to get a sniff at a split in the next election. A few die-hards maybe, but this coalition has made them witting puppets of the Conservatives, and has destroyed their credibility. The only way I could see them getting a bump is if they said "we've been done over, boys and girls" and made a principled exit from the Government.

[hypochondriac]

The Lib Dems have been found out. They're a bunch of political opportunists who don't believe in anything.

 

One thing you can say about UKIP is that you know what they stand for. Quite like Farage too - he routinely eviscerates his counterparts on Question Time and Any Questions.

 

Fantastic post. I agree wholeheartedly with every word.

[swannymere]

Can't wait to have a party with one policy, and we laughed at the Yanks for electing George, oh the irony.

[dune]

You're nuts if you think Liberal Democrats are switching to UKIP!

 

Yet again you are showing you naivety. The vast bulk of the electorate are thick and don't know what they are voting for. Most people vote Liberal because they are not Labour or Conservative, not because they are Liberal.

[dune]

Yep, I think the Tories have suffered from that for sure. But the left-wing vote is spilt too between Lib Dems and Labour, so it could go either way.

 

Rubbish. The leftie vote is now all behind Labour. The Liberals only votes will now come from people who are that thick they don't realise they are actually natural Tory or UKIP voters. I.E people from the South West (and Eastleigh) who are genitically retarded.

[hypochondriac]

Anyone who votes Lib Dem IMO doesn't really know a lot about politics. At least those who vote for Labour believe in something sensible.

[dune]

Anyone who votes Lib Dem IMO doesn't really know a lot about politics. At least those who vote for Labour believe in something sensible.

 

Socialism is sensible?

 

Have you seen what's happening in Greece?

[Saintandy666]

Rubbish. The leftie vote is now all behind Labour. The Liberals only votes will now come from people who are that thick they don't realise they are actually natural Tory or UKIP voters. I.E people from the South West (and Eastleigh) who are genitically retarded.

 

Yes, 'genitically'(sic).

 

Anyways... I don't really understand how you lot can just say anyone who votes Lib Dem is retarded and doesn't know about politics. I think you lot show a lack of respect for democracy and to be honest bad understanding of what the Liberal Democrats are.

 

And labour aren't socialist... they are 'the third way' which is no way socialism.

[Saintandy666]

Anyone who votes Lib Dem IMO doesn't really know a lot about politics. At least those who vote for Labour believe in something sensible.

 

Can you elaborate please?

[pap]

You're nuts if you think Liberal Democrats are switching to UKIP!

 

I have no political allegiance. I've never stuck with a single party, and have generally voted on the basis of manifestos.

 

The Conservative Party are a joke. Time may prove me wrong on this, but I don't think they have the first idea of how to get the country out of the mire it's in. Most of their policies have been poorly thought through, they voted against an in/out referendum despite banging the anti-Euro drum to rouse their constituents - they created a lot of UKIP voters that day.

 

No time for Labour either, despite being genuinely pleased in the '97 election. They might have been more socially oriented, but they made a lot of bad decisions, especially on foreign policy. The internecine factionalism didn't help either. Brownites and Blairites. Just run the f'kn country please. They won't get anywhere under Miliband. All my MP ever does is snipe tweets at the Tories. That's not effective opposition - that's shooting fish in a barrel.

 

And finally, the Lib Dems. Complete chancers who promised everything to get power, delivered little when they did and have broken almost every manifesto pledge they've made. I voted for them in the last General Election. In hindsight, I should probably have remembered they way they turned on Charles Kennedy and Menzies Campbell to make themselves more electable. I now find it funny that that very 'electability' has ultimately destroyed them as a political force. Poetic justice.

 

I voted UKIP in the last local election, btw.

Edited 3 November, 2011 by pap

[dune]

I voted UKIP in the last local election, btw.

 

Good man.

[Saintandy666]

I have no political allegiance. I've never stuck with a single party, and have generally voted on the basis of manifestos.

 

The Conservative Party are a joke. Time may prove me wrong on this, but I don't think they have the first idea of how to get the country out of the mire its in. Most of their policies have been poorly thought through, they voted against an in/out referendum despite banging the anti-Euro drum to rouse their constituents - they created a lot of UKIP voters that day.

 

No time for Labour either, despite being genuinely pleased in the '97 election. They might have been more socially oriented, but they made a lot of bad decisions, especially on foreign policy. The internecine factionalism didn't help either. Brownites and Blairites. Just run the f'kn country please. They won't get anywhere under Miliband. All my MP ever does is snipe tweets at the Tories. That's not effective opposition - that's shooting fish in a barrel.

 

And finally, the Lib Dems. Complete chancers who promised everything to get power, delivered little when they did and have broken almost every manifesto pledge they've made. I voted for them in the last General Election. In hindsight, I should probably have remembered they way they turned on Charles Kennedy and Menzies Campbell to make themselves more electable. I now find it funny that that very 'electability' has ultimately destroyed them as a political force. Poetic justice.

 

I voted UKIP in the last local election, btw.

 

Some voters will of course switch to UKIP, but in opinion polls Liberal Democrat voters are always much more pro-EU than the other parties so are more likely to switch to Labour(as they have been doing... liberal democrat collapse may cost the Tories dear).

 

But I have to ask why did you vote Lib Dem if you liked UKIP as well?! Or is your euro-scepticism a recent thing?

 

There was a look into coalition policy and how much had become a reality and actually they found out 75% of Liberal Democrat manifesto had become policy and only 60% of Tory manifesto had become policy. So while they have had to break some pledges due to the necessity of coalition, they are not breaking almost every pledge.

 

And I still reckon that the Lib Dems will do alright at the general election, they always dip dramatically between elections and people have short political memories.

[hypochondriac]

Can you elaborate please?

 

Many Lib Dem policies from the election were unworkable and silly. They only came up with most of them because they knew they wouldn't win an election. The Lib Dems don't really stand for anything, and most who vote for them are young student types with little understanding of the way of the world. I imagine when they grow up these people vote for a proper party with proper policies as opposed to 'something different.'

[dune]

in opinion polls Liberal Democrat voters are always much more pro-EU than the other parties.

 

Source?

[dune]

most who vote for them are young student types with little understanding of the way of the world.

 

This is partly true, but I still maintain that most Lib Dem voters only vote for them as they see them as a softer version of Labour/Conservative..

Edited 3 November, 2011 by dune

[hypochondriac]

Socialism is sensible?

 

Have you seen what's happening in Greece?

 

Sensible was the wrong choice of words. What I meant was that they are actually voting for a workable alternative. Good or bad, Labour would be able to be in charge of the country should they win an election tomorrow. The same cannot be said for the Lib Dems. It's completely ridiculous to suggest that the Lib Dems are a credible alternative to the two leading parties and so those who vote for them can't really be taken seriously. I currently disagree with Labour policies, but I can respect those who vote for them and I cant say I wouldn't vote for them in the future. Lib Dems? No chance.

[Saintandy666]

Many Lib Dem policies from the election were unworkable and silly. They only came up with most of them because they knew they wouldn't win an election. The Lib Dems don't really stand for anything, and most who vote for them are young student types with little understanding of the way of the world. I imagine when they grow up these people vote for a proper party with proper policies as opposed to 'something different.'

 

Actually, the Liberal Democrat manifesto was properly costed and would have worked. They just had different priorities, but obviously as it's a coalition, they can't put it all in place.

 

You are also wrong to say that most liberal democrat voters are student types -

 

For example 26% of men 45-54 voted Lib Dem.

 

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemId=2613

 

[hypochondriac]

Actually, the Liberal Democrat manifesto was properly costed and would have worked. They just had different priorities, but obviously as it's a coalition, they can't put it all in place.

 

No it wouldn't. What was all that nonsense about letting asylum seekers stay? Scrapping student fees? Where would that have got us? Abolishing trident for an alternative? (when no alternative exists.) If it were up to them we would have joined the Euro and look where that would have got us. That is just a small amount of the rubbish they spouted at the time and yes I did have a look at the manifesto (not that that means anything for any party). It was nonsense.

 

You are also wrong to say that most liberal democrat voters are student types -

 

 

For example 26% of men 45-54 voted Lib Dem.

 

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemId=2613

 

 

Erm that looks like 23% to me and a higher percentage were younger, thus proving my point.

[dune]

I currently disagree with Labour policies, but I can respect those who vote for them.

 

This is where we differ. I cannot have any respect for those so idiotic to vote for a party whose roots are akin to Marxism. You only have to look to the old Eastern Europe to see what a prolonged period under Socialism leads to. The only reason we have prospered is because we've regularly booted them out and the Conservatives have put us back on track.

[hypochondriac]

This is where we differ. I cannot have any respect for those so idiotic to vote for a party whose roots are akin to Marxism. You only have to look to the old Eastern Europe to see what a prolonged period under Socialism leads to. The only reason we have prospered is because we've regularly booted them out and the Conservatives have put us back on track.

 

Yes I realise dune but I don't like to polarise things as much as you do. I have good friends who have voted Labour, and I did once (and my Dad has done in the past although voted Conservative this time) so I understand the reasons for doing so. I look at each party on their merits before each election and obviously take other factors into account.

[Thorpe-le-Saint]

This is where we differ. I cannot have any respect for those so idiotic to vote for a party whose roots are akin to Marxism. You only have to look to the old Eastern Europe to see what a prolonged period under Socialism leads to. The only reason we have prospered is because we've regularly booted them out and the Conservatives have put us back on track.

 

Goooonnnnnee fiiiissshhiinnnn...

 

You're going to have to change your record dune if you want people to bite.

[dune]

Maggies views are spot on.

 

[pap]

Some voters will of course switch to UKIP, but in opinion polls Liberal Democrat voters are always much more pro-EU than the other parties so are more likely to switch to Labour(as they have been doing... liberal democrat collapse may cost the Tories dear).

 

But I have to ask why did you vote Lib Dem if you liked UKIP as well?! Or is your euro-scepticism a recent thing?

 

Being pro-EU or anti-EU isn't a permanent state of affairs - it has got to be weighed up and re-evaluated on a continual basis, especially when the landscape changes. Our relationship with the EU is ever changing, as are the benefits it brings.

 

You only have to look at the stability fund that has been introduced. Each member state needs to contribute a certain amount of funds. States that cannot contribute enough will lose voting rights. To me, that's a dangerous centralisation of power. You could almost argue that Merkel will achieve with economics what Hitler failed to achieve through force of arms. We're also taking a big risk by helping to prop it up. Instead of paying money directly to the stability fund, we'll probably pay the IMF, who will pay the EU. One more middleman - same difference.

 

However, I've been Euro-sceptic for a while, and one of the things that impressed me about the Lib Dems was on their dignified stance for a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.

 

There was a look into coalition policy and how much had become a reality and actually they found out 75% of Liberal Democrat manifesto had become policy and only 60% of Tory manifesto had become policy. So while they have had to break some pledges due to the necessity of coalition, they are not breaking almost every pledge.

 

Fair enough - I'll take you at your word on that. You have to admit though, the U-Turns on the big issues have been tremendously damaging for them.

 

And I still reckon that the Lib Dems will do alright at the general election, they always dip dramatically between elections and people have short political memories.

 

We will see, sir. We will see. The winner will have to start a gloat thread

[Thorpe-le-Saint]

Yes but you've posted this video at least nine times before. Hasn't she got any new stuff where she's screaming "You commie bastard" in the face of a pigeon?

[Saintandy666]

Erm that looks like 23% to me and a higher percentage were younger, thus proving my point.

 

Not really. Youth turn out is very low, so in actual voters, quite a low proportion are students.

[revolution saint]

Sensible was the wrong choice of words. What I meant was that they are actually voting for a workable alternative. Good or bad, Labour would be able to be in charge of the country should they win an election tomorrow. The same cannot be said for the Lib Dems. It's completely ridiculous to suggest that the Lib Dems are a credible alternative to the two leading parties and so those who vote for them can't really be taken seriously. I currently disagree with Labour policies, but I can respect those who vote for them and I cant say I wouldn't vote for them in the future. Lib Dems? No chance.

 

Have to say I think you're being pretty unfair on Lib Dem supporters - I actually think in the last 20 years or so their supporters have been the ones that vote on policy not presentation and at times the party has suffered for not pandering to the court of public opinion. You mention that at least Labour and the Tories stand for something, well so do the Lib Dems and it's disingenous and wrong to suggest otherwise. I remember them mainly as a party that actually cost their manifesto instead of promising the world on the back of reducing red tape and beaurocracy - remember the 1p hike in tax to pay for education or the proposal to make local government taxation proportionate to the ability to pay, indeed the proposal to raise money through a higher tax bracket? All of these were sensible costed budget proposals whether you agreed with them or not. Of course there was also the opposition to the Iraq war. People who voted or have voted Lib Dem are not naive and have a valid opinion and actually because they don't have to appeal to any extreme I frequently find them far more credible in their opinion than either of the other two parties.

 

That said, the Lib Dems have made mistakes in this parliment, namely going into a coaltion when an agreement to vote with the Tories on most issues would have sufficed and the inability to get proper PR (which would have been worth a coalition).

 

Oh and for the record I didn't vote for the LibDems last election but I do have a problem with people like you who think they know everything and can gratuitously dismiss what for many would have been a well thought out decision.

[dune]

Yes but you've posted this video at least nine times before. Hasn't she got any new stuff where she's screaming "You commie bastard" in the face of a pigeon?

 

My current favourite. Enjoy.

 

[hypochondriac]

Have to say I think you're being pretty unfair on Lib Dem supporters - I actually think in the last 20 years or so their supporters have been the ones that vote on policy not presentation and at times the party has suffered for not pandering to the court of public opinion. You mention that at least Labour and the Tories stand for something, well so do the Lib Dems and it's disingenous and wrong to suggest otherwise. I remember them mainly as a party that actually cost their manifesto instead of promising the world on the back of reducing red tape and beaurocracy - remember the 1p hike in tax to pay for education or the proposal to make local government taxation proportionate to the ability to pay, indeed the proposal to raise money through a higher tax bracket? All of these were sensible costed budget proposals whether you agreed with them or not. Of course there was also the opposition to the Iraq war. People who voted or have voted Lib Dem are not naive and have a valid opinion and actually because they don't have to appeal to any extreme I frequently find them far more credible in their opinion than either of the other two parties.

 

That said, the Lib Dems have made mistakes in this parliment, namely going into a coaltion when an agreement to vote with the Tories on most issues would have sufficed and the inability to get proper PR (which would have been worth a coalition).

 

Oh and for the record I didn't vote for the LibDems last election but I do have a problem with people like you who think they know everything and can gratuitously dismiss what for many would have been a well thought out decision.

 

I never stated that. It's my opinion based on the large majority of Lib Dem policy I have seen and heard. There is a reason they are the third party and not in with a real credible chance of winning.

[revolution saint]

I never stated that. It's my opinion based on the large majority of Lib Dem policy I have seen and heard. There is a reason they are the third party and not in with a real credible chance of winning.

 

You stated that people who vote Lib Dem know nothing about politics. Pretty damning wouldn't you say? It indicates you know more (or think you do) that's not only massively condescending but also wrong.

[hypochondriac]

You stated that people who vote Lib Dem know nothing about politics. Pretty damning wouldn't you say? It indicates you know more (or think you do) that's not only massively condescending but also wrong.

 

My opinion is that the Lib Dems do not offer a credible government and thus by voting for them those voters either are not aware of those policies that are unworkable, are voting as a protest or are a bit dim. Of course some of their policies could work and not all are bad, but I can't honestly believe that someone could read extensively into the Lib Dems and their policies and decide that they are the party for them to provide a credible alternative. Fair enough if you believe differently but it's not arrogant to hold that opinion.

[revolution saint]

My opinion is that the Lib Dems do not offer a credible government and thus by voting for them those voters either are not aware of those policies that are unworkable, are voting as a protest or are a bit dim. Of course some of their policies could work and not all are bad, but I can't honestly believe that someone could read extensively into the Lib Dems and their policies and decide that they are the party for them to provide a credible alternative. Fair enough if you believe differently but it's not arrogant to hold that opinion.

 

Of course it's not arrogant to hold that opinion, it's arrogant to suggest that people who hold a different one know nothing.

[Saintandy666]

Being pro-EU or anti-EU isn't a permanent state of affairs - it has got to be weighed up and re-evaluated on a continual basis, especially when the landscape changes. Our relationship with the EU is ever changing, as are the benefits it brings.

 

You only have to look at the stability fund that has been introduced. Each member state needs to contribute a certain amount of funds. States that cannot contribute enough will lose voting rights. To me, that's a dangerous centralisation of power. You could almost argue that Merkel will achieve with economics what Hitler failed to achieve through force of arms. We're also taking a big risk by helping to prop it up. Instead of paying money directly to the stability fund, we'll probably pay the IMF, who will pay the EU. One more middleman - same difference.

 

However, I've been Euro-sceptic for a while, and one of the things that impressed me about the Lib Dems was on their dignified stance for a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.

 

 

 

Fair enough - I'll take you at your word on that. You have to admit though, the U-Turns on the big issues have been tremendously damaging for them.

 

 

 

We will see, sir. We will see. The winner will have to start a gloat thread

 

Oh yes for sure. The big issues will hit them hard, especially on tuition fees, as that was against students who often have a very naive view of politics. They won't forgive easily on what was their first big engagement with politics.

 

And yes, the Liberal Democrats generally support more direct democracy full stop. They even want an in-out EU referendum, but when the time is right... i.e the next treaty change.

 

And thank-you for sensibly stating why you are becoming more and more anti-EU rather than just foaming at the mouth and saying I am a young idiot and therefore wrong. Now I actually have something of value to think about.

 

And to everyone who has called the young know it all and so on and then goes on to say that Liberal Democrats views are retarded and know nothing about politics are hypocrites. Everyone's opinion should be listened to and put in the free market of ideas and no-one should be silenced and called stupid because you never know if you are the one who is wrong. Even if one person holds an opinion, and rest of society holds a different opinion, that one person should never be silenced.

[hypochondriac]

Oh yes for sure. The big issues will hit them hard, especially on tuition fees, as that was against students who often have a very naive view of politics. They won't forgive easily on what was their first big engagement with politics.

 

And yes, the Liberal Democrats generally support more direct democracy full stop. They even want an in-out EU referendum, but when the time is right... i.e the next treaty change.

 

And thank-you for sensibly stating why you are becoming more and more anti-EU rather than just foaming at the mouth and saying I am a young idiot and therefore wrong. Now I actually have something of value to think about.

 

And to everyone who has called the young know it all and so on and then goes on to say that Liberal Democrats views are retarded and know nothing about politics are hypocrites. Everyone's opinion should be listened to and put in the free market of ideas and no-one should be silenced and called stupid because you never know if you are the one who is wrong. Even if one person holds an opinion, and rest of society holds a different opinion, that one person should never be silenced.

 

Glad you can admit it!