Scrapping Tribunal System

[St_Tel49]

Cortese has also spoken of a 5-year plan, which we are now nearly halfway through. It was always an investment with a view to a medium-term return (hence Liebherr calling the deal "Schnäppchen" [German for "bargain"]), and if we were to get promoted this season (the bookies now have us odds-on to go up ) it wouldn't be completely mental to suggest that the value of the club would be worth at least double the money that has been put in to date.

 

 

Many building developments get sent to architects without actually having a brick laid, it's not an odd situation at all. A company that has already planned for such a development (and received planning permission from the local authority) will be more valuable. It demonstrates to potential buyers that the company has been run by people with a bit of foresight and they went to the trouble of putting the foresight onto paper.

Steve, do I take it from this that you believe that the Leibher's are only in it to sell when there is a decent profit to be made? That really is not the impression that I am getting from NC.

[up and away]

Cortese has also spoken of a 5-year plan, which we are now nearly halfway through. It was always an investment with a view to a medium-term return (hence Liebherr calling the deal "Schnäppchen" [German for "bargain"]), and if we were to get promoted this season (the bookies now have us odds-on to go up ) it wouldn't be completely mental to suggest that the value of the club would be worth at least double the money that has been put in to date.

 

After nodding in agreement to 95% of what you have posted, I just can't see the logic here, bearing in mind all the current evidence of Premier clubs. Liebherr calling the deal "Schnappchen" has one very vital reference point, that of a multi billionaire. Take away that qualification and "Schnappchen" is no longer in the same context. The main problem at the present is for any market to exist, you have to have willing buyers. Just look at the acquisitions that have been made for clubs in the Premier outside of the top 5 and I really doubt any now view this as a sound investment, with the vast majority now just treading water to avoid losing more capital.

 

Lets assume Saints make the Premier after 5 years, that's going to have costed (in comparison to investing else where) in excess of £30M+(even allowing for the windfall that was Oxo). You then have to lay out a further £30+M just to try and ensure you stay in the lower reaches of the Premier. All the while running up operating cost levels that will leave very little to profit upon. So for an outlay of about £70M you have the honour of owning a Premier club with very little in terms of profit. Then if you want to chase the CL dream of an extra £15M per season, you would be looking at about £120M further to give yourself a 1/3 chance, as demonstrated by the likes of Spurs and Liverpool.

 

The Premier league has attracted a lot of big buyers, but that just does not look the case anymore. In all honesty the likes of AV, Birmingham, Blackburn, Sunderland, Fulham, QPR, WHU cannot be seen as an investment. Given the choice, you can easily see most of these avoiding the Premier league with the benefit of hindsight, leaving only those who gain joy from football as being happy. Someone like Mike Ashley who has splashed out £500M+ would glady reverse his decision, it's just a black hole that sucks all pleasure along with money and dreams for him. Luckily the new Liverpool owner must be thanking Arsene for dropping the ball this season, but I still reckon that only gives them about a 1/3 shot of making the CL next season.

 

If you are a multi billionaire who wants the excitement that football can bring to your life, then it's a bargain. The question is, how many of those are about and more importantly, would want to buy Saints?

[stevegrant]

Steve, do I take it from this that you believe that the Leibher's are only in it to sell when there is a decent profit to be made? That really is not the impression that I am getting from NC.

Without wishing to divert too far from the main topic of the thread, it's certainly my belief that that was the original plan. Whether that was re-evaluated once ML got into the emotional side of things or not, I've no idea. The obvious spanner in the works is the extended family - we don't know how much of an active interest they're taking in the club (from a high level, obviously, as they'll happily leave NC to run things on a day-to-day basis) or whether they even want to keep the club under the family's ownership. NC says they're supportive, which is all well and good, but that could change at any moment. Having been a fairly secretive and secluded family through all the time they've been making their fortune, it would seem to fly in the face of that for them to want to hang around in the Premier League with the additional exposure that status brings.

[up and away]

Originally Posted by St_Tel49

Steve, do I take it from this that you believe that the Leibher's are only in it to sell when there is a decent profit to be made? That really is not the impression that I am getting from NC.

 

Without wishing to divert too far from the main topic of the thread, it's certainly my belief that that was the original plan. Whether that was re-evaluated once ML got into the emotional side of things or not, I've no idea. The obvious spanner in the works is the extended family - we don't know how much of an active interest they're taking in the club (from a high level, obviously, as they'll happily leave NC to run things on a day-to-day basis) or whether they even want to keep the club under the family's ownership. NC says they're supportive, which is all well and good, but that could change at any moment. Having been a fairly secretive and secluded family through all the time they've been making their fortune, it would seem to fly in the face of that for them to want to hang around in the Premier League with the additional exposure that status brings.

 

I have little doubt that Liebherr bought into the Saints dream that anything was possible should he still be alive today. Sharing those thoughts with Cortese I believe they both bought into that dream, each spurring the other on. Liebherr made provisions for Saints beyond his death and Cortese is following through to deliver. But just what is Cortese following through with? I would venture that Cortese has been left independently wealthy from Liebherrs will and the the club is owned / governed by the extended Liebherr family (including Cortese). I would further venture that a very sizeable lump of Liebherrs assets have been ring fenced to make the dream come true, otherwise why bother and just put the club up for sale immediately. Although Cortese is in charge, the input and control from other family members can have a significant impact but I don't believe sufficient to derail anything.

 

If Cortese'e spur is financial, we could easily be deep in the sheite, because I can easily see a financial agreement being hammered out to end things here and now which would put many £10M's straight into his pocket. I hope and believe that he is true to that dream he and Markus held and will take us as far as possible. There will be an end eventually, but Cortese can see that through to many years in the future.

[Baird of the land]

Anyone with half a brain knows what the Premier League's next step will be. A few years down the line they will demand that they be able to field reserves sides in the football league. Amazing how one story can make me this depressed about football despite Saints being 5 points clear at the top of the league.