City sizes and support

[norwaysaint]

As I have lots of work I should be doing, I found myself idly looking on wikipedia at the size of UK cities and their urban areas. I think urban area is the more relevant factor for football support, as most people in Eastleigh would support saints and most people in Christchurch would consider Bournemouth their local team etc.

 

I'd always thought our larger support was mostly down to our being the bigger catchment area, but I was surprised that the Southampton urban area is only 304,400. pompey's is a whopping 442,000 and Bournemouth's is 383,700.

 

Leeds must have the biggest area to themselves with just one team for over 800,000 people, not including Bradford, Wakefield etc, Newcastle have similar.

 

I don't know what point I'm making, but you can't argue with it.

[Badvoc]

I did some analysis of this back in 2000, but I just looked at the actual city population size alone (not including any metropolitan catchment areas). I took the Prem League clubs at then time (non-London) and about dozen clubs from the other big cities and compared the size of city with the average home gate. Back in 2000 Saints were mid table, whilst at the Dell. With St Mary's factored in at 31/32k per game we were about second or third in terms of % home turnout compared to population size. From memory Boro had the very best % of support. I suspect if I did it today Norwich would come out on top.

 

Just proves that we are a powerhouse (in relative terms) and Soton IS very much a footballing city. Puts paid to all that mumbo jumbo cr*p about P*mpey having this massive support. The figs just didn't show it then, and certainly don't show it now.

[70's Mike]

As I have lots of work I should be doing, I found myself idly looking on wikipedia at the size of UK cities and their urban areas. I think urban area is the more relevant factor for football support, as most people in Eastleigh would support saints and most people in Christchurch would consider Bournemouth their local team etc.

 

I'd always thought our larger support was mostly down to our being the bigger catchment area, but I was surprised that the Southampton urban area is only 304,400. pompey's is a whopping 442,000 and Bournemouth's is 383,700.

 

Leeds must have the biggest area to themselves with just one team for over 800,000 people, not including Bradford, Wakefield etc, Newcastle have similar.

 

I don't know what point I'm making, but you can't argue with it.

 

Did you include Winchester

[Son of Bob]

The thing is we have a massive catchment area that takes in some relatively big towns and cities including Winchester, Romsey, Eastleigh, Totton and Salisbury. I work in Basingstoke and it's amazing how many Saints fans there are there as well. Add the populations of all these places up and it's not really surprising we could attract 30-40k for a home game in the Premier League.

[Thedelldays]

we officially belong within a metropolitan area called the southampton-portsmouth metropolitan area...has a population of about 1.2m people

[Tokyo-Saint]

And Baisingstoke? I often take the train down from London and a few supporters pile on from there. It is a very interesting subject though as long term teams will always be restricted by the level of support the city can offer. Regional capitals like Barcelona and Madrid will always be massive clubs because of the level of interest outside if their city.

 

London clubs also have the corporate angle as well as tourists, and recent immigrants. I had some corporate tickets for Arsenal last year and I realised they will always have the funds to steal our best young players as there were so many people there like me, on a corporate freebee. Companies don't mind paying loads for a couple of club level tickets with a meal included as it is a tax write off and a good night out for their clients. I know other cities have companies as well but there are obviously more in London, especially big spending city types with international links.

[Prince Jazzbo]

I think analysis like this is always a bit suspect. Where does our urban area end and Portsmouth’s start. You cant just relate it to Council boundaries, as areas like Locks Heath are closer to Southampton than Portsmouth, so whilst its part of Fareham Council, its part of the Southampton urban area . Also if you include Gosport in the Portsmouth urban area, then surely you could include the Totton and the Waterside in ours, they might appear like villages but its quite densely populated over there with a population of about 70,000.

Edited 4 October, 2011 by Prince Jazzbo

[Topcat]

Soton 234k + Eastleigh Borough 120k + Test Valley 115k + Winchester District 112k+ New Forest 175k = circa 750k

 

Puts Saints in the Leeds scale. Which is why a 50k+ stadium could be viable.

 

Add in the fact that the average gdp in the whole area is greater than Leeds etc! Portsmuffs gdp is a lot lower due to the caravans and prefabs.

[Turkish]

Wasn't one of the reasons given as why we could easily fill a 45k stadium week in week out because of the huge catchment area we have?

[Thedelldays]

Wasn't one of the reasons given as why we could easily fill a 45k stadium week in week out because of the huge catchment area we have?

and that man once climb everest...ffs

[Turkish]

and that man once climb everest...ffs

 

Chelsea have got a huge catchment area and they only used to get 10k in 1983.

[Jimmy_D]

Bristol really should have a reasonably big club.

 

They have two smaller clubs.

[hasper57saint]

Many of us who are lifelong Saints don't live in the catchment area. At a guess I'd say 3 - 4,000 live well beyond the borders of Hampshire. eg Seven of us travel from the West Midlands and Staffs as STH's for all the home games. I often see many other posters on here from outside the immediacy of Southampton. I don't think 'population' has anything to do with 'how many support' our team. Compare other Championship Clubs attendances with Saints and then look at the population of the catchment area.

[Hatch]

Our catchment areas is quite big considering we only have 3 sides , North, East and West .

And no South to speak off.

[the mick channon windmill]

Many of us who are lifelong Saints don't live in the catchment area. At a guess I'd say 3 - 4,000 live well beyond the borders of Hampshire. eg Seven of us travel from the West Midlands and Staffs as STH's for all the home games. I often see many other posters on here from outside the immediacy of Southampton. I don't think 'population' has anything to do with 'how many support' our team. Compare other Championship Clubs

attendances with Saints and then look at the population of the catchment area.

 

The population of a city and its surrounding catchment area has everything to do with how many supporters a club has, regardless of who that club is. Take Saints for example, they are the club that represent the city of Southampton and why local people feel proud of their team. Football clubs are the heartbeat of the local community. Saints may have many supporters throughout England and all over the world but there is a reason why they support the club and that normally goes back to connections they have with the city. For example they were born in the area and moved away or parents were from there etc. There are obviously exceptions to this but other than the huge clubs who have glory hunting fans everywhere most clubs draw their fanbase from the city they are based and surrounding catchment area.

[Matthew Le God]

Our catchment areas is quite big considering we only have 3 sides , North, East and West .

And no South to speak off.

 

What about the 140,000 people living on the Isle of Wight?

[Huntingdon]

What about the 140,000 people living on the Isle of Wight?

 

That's very true, I also remember reading about a surprisingly large supporter base in the Channel Islands

[bristolsaint29]

Bristol really should have a reasonably big club.

 

We have 2 sh1t ones

[Saint 76er]

Soton 234k + Eastleigh Borough 120k + Test Valley 115k + Winchester District 112k+ New Forest 175k = circa 750k

 

Puts Saints in the Leeds scale. Which is why a 50k+ stadium could be viable.

 

Add in the fact that the average gdp in the whole area is greater than Leeds etc! Portsmuffs gdp is a lot lower due to the caravans and prefabs.

 

 

Think this fits in with NC's long term vision for the club. Whilst a 50k stadium seems a tad fanciful right now, it may not do if (when) we are back in PL and competing towards the top end of the table.

 

The potential is huge as it's not just about catchment area size but peoples preferred team to support. Saints have always been a popular club with people from outside the immediate area and often from much further away.

 

When we were in PL I think if you drew a line from south of Birmingham to south of London we were the only PL club in almost half the country! That is the scope of support base we could potentially tap into, not just Hampshire and adjoining bits of other counties.

 

Not everyone in that whole area will want to be a Saints supporter, but I suspect Cortese has visions of turning us into something like the ManU of the south. Point is we don't have too much competition in a large area to win hearts and minds of disaffected football fans fed up with the ManU/C or Chelseas of this world. People far and wide may like what they see happening at our club and be prepared to travel like MU fans do for home games.

 

But to get to this stage you need to provide the right product and certainly we are heading that way on the pitch at the present time. Next is getting to PL and doing okay and then topping that off with the stadium upgrade. I suspect these are timelines from Cortese's diary as I think he is determined to take us beyond being just a local city club into a substantial regional force representing the whole southern area of the country as we wage battle against those nasty northerners.

 

There is an opening for a club, if they can be successful, to garner support from outside the major metro areas (eg London) in the wider region as there is no real PL competition and we can become the top level team that people can associate with.

 

Is a 50k stadium just a field of dreams then?

 

Maybe, but you have to have vision and planning for the future. For so many years this club failed to realise it's full potential, hampered by a cramped Dell, but there may never be a better time than the next few years to unlock that potential and that means reaching out beyond the ancient city walls to a new and expanding fan base from beyond the Hampshire boundaries....

[Turkish]

When we were in the premier league and the only club in the area with the imaginery line throuogh Birmingham and London up there, were finishing in the top half, reaching cup finals and playing in Europe we just about managed to sell out most weeks. Can someone please come up with one good reason why now suddenly in the same sized stadium we will be turning away 18k every week.

 

The previous reasons of Chelsea only getting 13k in 1982, Fulham get 25k and they are next door to Chelsea, Liverpool get 40k and they aren't very good at the moment and it being possible because they said man would never climb Everest didn't convince the doubter last time round.

Edited 4 October, 2011 by Turkish

[Matthew Le God]

When we were in the premier league and the only club in the area with the imaginery line throuogh Birmingham and London up there, were finishing in the top half, reaching cup finals and playing in Europe we just about managed to sell out most weeks. Can someone please come up with one good reason why now suddenly in the same sized stadium we will be turning away 18k every week.

 

Well Saints were turning people away last time they were in the Premier League at St Mary's. Between 2001 and 2005 the club always averaged 30k+ in all four seasons and a high number of games sold out long in advance of the fixture. That was as a mid table team for three years, and coming bottom in the last season. If the team was competing towards the top of the league then the demand would be even higher than it was then.

 

Do you honestly think that when Saints were selling out against Arsenal, Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool etc long in advance of the day of the game that no-one else wanted a ticket?

 

Liverpool get 40k and they aren't very good at the moment and it being possible because they said man would never climb Everest didn't convince the doubter last time round.

 

This is irrelevant. Liverpool actually sell out there 45k stadium each week pretty much. If they had a bigger stadium they would sell even more.

Edited 4 October, 2011 by Matthew Le God

[Mr_Red]

As I have lots of work I should be doing, I found myself idly looking on wikipedia at the size of UK cities and their urban areas. I think urban area is the more relevant factor for football support, as most people in Eastleigh would support saints and most people in Christchurch would consider Bournemouth their local team etc.

 

I'd always thought our larger support was mostly down to our being the bigger catchment area, but I was surprised that the Southampton urban area is only 304,400. pompey's is a whopping 442,000 and Bournemouth's is 383,700.

 

Leeds must have the biggest area to themselves with just one team for over 800,000 people, not including Bradford, Wakefield etc, Newcastle have similar.

 

I don't know what point I'm making, but you can't argue with it.

 

I was going to try, but then saw you had put 'most' in there and so can't.

Not sure what the general view in Christchurch is - probably see as many Saints shirts as B'mouth ones around though. I live in Exeter now so why I comment I don't know...

 

Also, weirdly, (and I suppose you only remember the ones you want to) the only football shirts I saw in Monza, Italy for the F1 Grand Prix were those of Southampton supporters. We're everywhere.

[Turkish]

Well Saints were turning people away last time they were in the Premier League at St Mary's. Between 2001 and 2005 the club always averaged 30k+ in all four seasons and a high number of games sold out long in advance of the fixture. That was as a mid table team for three years, and coming bottom in the last season. If the team was competing towards the top of the league then the demand would be even higher than it was then.

 

Do you honestly think that when Saints were selling out against Arsenal, Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool etc long in advance of the day of the game that no-one else wanted a ticket?

 

 

 

This is irrelevant. Liverpool actually sell out there 45k stadium each week pretty much. If they had a bigger stadium they would sell even more.

 

How many were we turning away? A couple of hundred tops i'd imagine. I certainly never heard of anyone not getting a ticket that wanted one, no stories of waiting lists or turning away thousands weekly. What makes people think we'd suddenly have 18,000 disapointed fans each and every week even if we go from finish 8th-12th every season in 2002-14 to the dizzy heights of 7th-10th every season in 2014-18

 

And your point about Liverpool is relevant, they are a huge club, much bigger than us why and how are we suddenly going to become as well supported as them?

Edited 4 October, 2011 by Turkish

[Matthew Le God]

How many were we turning away? A couple of hundred tops i'd imagine. I certainly never heard of anyone not getting a ticket that wanted one, no stories of waiting lists or turning away thousands weekly. What makes people think we'd suddenly have 18,000 disapointed fans each and every week even if we go from finish 8th-12th every season in 2002-14 to 7th-10th every season in 2014-18

 

So when Saints were selling 31k+ against teams like Charlton in the Premier League and 31k+ against Man Utd in the Premier League you think both matches attracted exactly the same level of interest?

 

Had St Mary's been bigger, both attendances would have been larger, the Man Utd one considerably so.

 

And your point about Liverpool is relevant, they are a huge club, much bigger than us why and how are we suddenly going to become as well supported as them?

 

I've tried and failed to explain this to you a number of times. When have I ever said Saints were bigger than Liverpool? Liverpool sell out a 45k stadium every game, that doesn't mean their potential support is 45k. So if Saints were to get 46k for a game that doesn't mean they have a bigger fanbase, just that Liverpool are restricted.

 

Look at it this way, when Saints were at the Dell sold 15k against Man Utd, and Pompey in the 2nd tier sold 20k for a game, does that mean Pompey's fanbase is bigger than Saints? No, it is just Saints were restricted by the Dell, as Liverpool are by Anfield.

Edited 4 October, 2011 by Matthew Le God

[Turkish]

So when Saints were selling 31k+ against teams like Charlton in the Premier League and 31k against Man Utd in the Premier League you think both matches attracted the same level of interest?

 

Had St Mary's been bigger, both attendances would have been larger, the Man Utd one considerably so.

 

 

 

I've tried and failed to explain this to you a number of times. When have I ever said Saints were bigger than Liverpool? Liverpool sell out a 45k stadium every game, that doesn't mean their potential support is 45k. So if Saints were to get 46k for a game that doesn't mean they have a bigger fanbase, just that Liverpool are restricted.

 

Look at it this way, when Saints were at the Dell sold 15k against Man Utd, and Pompey in the 2nd tier sold 20k for a game, does that mean Pompey's fanbase is bigger than Saints? No, it is just Saints were restricted by the Dell, as Liverpool are by Anfield.

 

Can you confirm how long the waiting list for season tickets was 2002-2005 please. That is always a good indication of if you need to expand the stadium, Tottenham have a case to redevelop WHL to the 56k as their waiting list is around 13k in a 36k stadium.

[Matthew Le God]

Can you confirm how long the waiting list for season tickets was 2002-2005 please. That is always a good indication of if you need to expand the stadium, Tottenham have a case to redevelop WHL to the 56k as their waiting list is around 13k in a 36k stadium.

 

Why have you not answered my question...

 

"So when Saints were selling 31k+ against teams like Charlton in the Premier League and 31k against Man Utd in the Premier League you think both matches attracted the same level of interest?"

[saintmatt]

And Baisingstoke? I often take the train down from London and a few supporters pile on from there. It is a very interesting subject though as long term teams will always be restricted by the level of support the city can offer. Regional capitals like Barcelona and Madrid will always be massive clubs because of the level of interest outside if their city.

 

London clubs also have the corporate angle as well as tourists, and recent immigrants. I had some corporate tickets for Arsenal last year and I realised they will always have the funds to steal our best young players as there were so many people there like me, on a corporate freebee. Companies don't mind paying loads for a couple of club level tickets with a meal included as it is a tax write off and a good night out for their clients. I know other cities have companies as well but there are obviously more in London, especially big spending city types with international links.

 

Third party entertaining isn't tax deductible...

[Tokyo-Saint]

Third party entertaining isn't tax deductible...

 

Good night out for the staff then.

[Turkish]

Why have you not answered my question...

 

"So when Saints were selling 31k+ against teams like Charlton in the Premier League and 31k against Man Utd in the Premier League you think both matches attracted the same level of interest?"

 

Obviously not, but I bet we didn't turn away even a 4 figure number for Man Utd. In fact i know for a dact we rarely turned away anyone. I repeat, even at our "peak" in 2003 I never met ANYONE who failed to get a ticket if they really wanted one.

 

Now you answer my question. What was our waiting list for season tickets like in 2002-05?

[VectisSaint]

And no South to speak off.

I think I resemble that remark LOL

Althouh I don't live there now, dismissing the IOW is a bit rich. Not many people from the mainland have to catch a ferry to get to the home games (sorry to those in Hythe). Back in the 60s/70s the IW Branch of the Saints Supporters Club was a sizeable number of people. There are still a lot of people on the Red Jets when I do occassionally travel over from home.

 

Thing is also that for many years we were the only Div 1 /Prem League Club in the south (outside London) and over that time we established a large supporter base of people willing to travel 50-60 miles regularly down to Southampton. Our catchment area really does extend well into Wiltshire, even the north of the County because it really is a relatively easy journey to make by car or train.

[aintforever]

Obviously not, but I bet we didn't turn away even a 4 figure number for Man Utd. In fact i know for a dact we rarely turned away anyone. I repeat, even at our "peak" in 2003 I never met ANYONE who failed to get a ticket if they really wanted one.

 

Now you answer my question. What was our waiting list for season tickets like in 2002-05?

 

I think the Chelsea home game in 2003 sold out in 6 and a half hours - and that was with players like Bret Ormerod up front.

 

Saints don't have the biggest hardcore support but there are shed loads of people in the area who want to and can afford to watch the big Prem teams.

[Turkish]

I think the Chelsea home game in 2003 sold out in 6 and a half hours - and that was with players like Bret Ormerod up front.

 

Saints don't have the biggest hardcore support but there are shed loads of people in the area who want to and can afford to watch the big Prem teams.

 

That's it then, because we sold out one game quickly 8 years ago during our beat period in 20 years we better call the builders in.

[aintforever]

That's it then, because we sold out one game quickly 8 years ago during our beat period in 20 years we better call the builders in.

 

Just illustrating the potential. SFC has NEVER had the opportunity to fulfill it's full potential, it's either been limited by the Dell or by having owners who invested nothing - the potential is a bit of an unknown quantity.

 

I remember when Chelsea were a scutty little level 2 club. The problem with most Saints fans is that they are stuck with Dell-sized brains. Thank god someone like Cortese is running the show - he wont be looking backwards.

[Turkish]

Just illustrating the potential. SFC has NEVER had the opportunity to fulfill it's full potential, it's either been limited by the Dell or by having owners who invested nothing - the potential is a bit of an unknown quantity.

 

I remember when Chelsea were a scutty little level 2 club. The problem with most Saints fans is that they are stuck with Dell-sized brains. Thank god someone like Cortese is running the show - he wont be looking backwards.

 

Forget Corteses vision and drive. Forget dreaming of the champions league. Forget Chelsea only getting small crowds in 1982,that we sold a game out once in 6 hours when Brett Ormerod was playing for us, being contained by the Dell a chairman that didnt invest etc etc. Do you really believe a club in a city like of Southampton, can be one one of the best 5 supported clubs in the country, which we would need to be to get crowds of 50k a week. Overtake the likes of Tottenham, Aston Villa, Everton with their history, size and fan bases.

[waggy]

I can remember quite a few years ago, memory shot to feck so I can't recall exactly when, if you drew a straight line between Liverpool and London we were the only Prem club south of that line.

[sad saints fan]

I was reading in the "ECHO" a while back that an american university was doing a study of economic growth of major european cities .Southampton economic area was predicted to be the 5th largest in England by 2017 ,I think those figures are correct,so making us bigger than mersey side and bristol.I thought at the time that it was a mistake until I saw a map of the "Southampton economic area" which included.All of the New forest,Salisbury, Basingstoke,Winchester and as far east as Bognor. Thus making P***PEY part of southampton

[aintforever]

Forget Corteses vision and drive. Forget dreaming of the champions league. Forget Chelsea only getting small crowds in 1982,that we sold a game out once in 6 hours when Brett Ormerod was playing for us, being contained by the Dell a chairman that didnt invest etc etc. Do you really believe a club in a city like of Southampton, can be one one of the best 5 supported clubs in the country, which we would need to be to get crowds of 50k a week. Overtake the likes of Tottenham, Aston Villa, Everton with their history, size and fan bases.

 

I would say with the right investment 40K would be about right, it depends on the investment/timescales tho.

 

I think people look too much at history, the demographics of football has changed considerably and Saints have never had investment.

[Turkish]

I can remember quite a few years ago, memory shot to feck so I can't recall exactly when, if you drew a straight line between Liverpool and London we were the only Prem club south of that line.

 

Ahh, this famous imaginery line again. Where we are tucked away in the south east corner. Underneath a line which also includes areas as far away as Yorkshire in terms of miles and encompasses the whole of Wales. Any reason why these areas would be full of Southampton supporters?

Edited 4 October, 2011 by Turkish

[colehillsaint]

I have a theory;

 

You start with a basic support dependant on the size of your urban catchment area (e.g spurs/villa etc).

 

Over time this can be enhanced by;

 

1. winning things and acheiving whatever it takes to get watched by kids on tv, who become future support (e.g chelsea since the 90's or whenever they got to the top league)

 

2. playing attractive football that engages your support and gets them through the gates (e.g newcastle during and after keegans first spell)

 

3. hiring or developing cult talent that some people will pay to come and see play

 

 

Does anyone have a view on how long a club needs to do 1. 2. and 3. well or badly to really influence its support, (or am I just talking c**p)?

[Turkish]

I would say with the right investment 40K would be about right, it depends on the investment/timescales tho.

 

I think people look too much at history, the demographics of football has changed considerably and Saints have never had investment.

 

I would agree 40k is realistic as an aim, but some are saying 50k regularly, which would make us the 4th best supported club in England. There is not a single piece of credible evidence to suggest this is possible.

Edited 4 October, 2011 by Turkish

[pap]

The formula is exactly this :-

 

( Number of people in 50 mile radius / Number Of Teams in 100 mile radius )

 

minus

 

Number of glory hunters

 

minus

 

People who don't like football

 

minus

 

Disgruntled ex-fans with agendas against chairman / current manager / parking charges

 

minus

 

People physically unable to the ground (elderly, infirm, people tied to planks, etc.)

 

plus

 

small collection of Irishmen living through the consequences of a wild drunken claim.

 

plus

 

children of parents who've moved to another area, and have been brainwashed into supporting their parent's team.

 

equals

 

catchment area.

 

HTH.

[teamsaint]

There is ONE club with a similar size demographic that regularly gets numbers in that would fill a ground bigger than SMS.... Sunderland.

 

As Turkish says, it was always possible to get a ticket for a game if you rang up on the first day of sale. I never had a ST in the PL at sMS, and I never missed a game I wanted to see.

 

if cortese really does bring top 6 level to Saints on a regular basis, then there might, just might be a case for a 40k ground. Till then, 32500 will do just fine.

This is not being small minded, this is how it is.

And we have years of economic turmoil ahead.

[Matthew Le God]

I would agree 40k is realistic as an aim, but some are saying 50k regularly, which would make us the 4th best supported club in England.

 

I have never said 50k for every game. But if the club really did challenge towards the top of the Premier League I don't see why 50k for some of the big fixtures wouldn't be possible. Teams like Man City, Liverpool, Spurs, Chelsea etc are restricted by their current stadiums, they could all sell a lot more tickets than 50k. So it wouldn't make Saints 4th.

 

There is not a single piece of credible evidence to suggest this is possible.

 

What evidence do you want exactly? You keep harping on about season ticket waiting lists when for example Sunderland had only 10k season ticket holders in their last season at a 22k Roker Park, they had no waiting list at Roker and in the years building up to moving didn't get close to averaging near the capacity, they then moved to a 49k seater stadium.

[The Kraken]

Well Saints were turning people away last time they were in the Premier League at St Mary's. Between 2001 and 2005 the club always averaged 30k+ in all four seasons and a high number of games sold out long in advance of the fixture. That was as a mid table team for three years, and coming bottom in the last season.

 

How many fans were getting turned away when we were in the Premier League?

How many games were selling out "well in advance"? How long is "well in advance"?

 

These are the really important questions that you need to ask when trying to work out if we will need a bigger ground. And there are very few people who know the answer to those questions. At a guess, I would suggest (as Turkish says) that the extra number of people who wanted tickets for the games that did sell out was barely in the hundreds, and certainly not higher than a few thousand. But again, that's complete speculation on my behalf.

 

If the team was competing towards the top of the league then the demand would be even higher than it was then.

Perhaps; but then competing at the top of this division is barely having a positive effect this year than since our last forays here (depending which comparisons you use some could argue we're worse off; we're certainly not hugely up on home fan numbers from last year in a division below, that is for sure).

 

The only thing that we do know for sure is that Mr. Cortese has indicated an expanded stadium would only be on the cards when we're back in the Premier League and can demonstrate we absolutely positively need one. That is a long, long way away yet, even in his own words.

[colehillsaint]

The formula is exactly this :-

 

( Number of people in 50 mile radius / Number Of Teams in 100 mile radius )

 

minus

 

Number of glory hunters

 

minus

 

People who don't like football

 

minus

 

Disgruntled ex-fans with agendas against chairman / current manager / parking charges

 

minus

 

People physically unable to the ground (elderly, infirm, people tied to planks, etc.)

 

plus

 

small collection of Irishmen living through the consequences of a wild drunken claim.

 

plus

 

children of parents who've moved to another area, and have been brainwashed into supporting their parent's team.

 

equals

 

catchment area.

 

HTH.

 

I think if you amend it to "+/- Glory hunters dependant on factor derived from current league position" you have the basis of a good university thesis

[Matthew Le God]

How many fans were getting turned away when we were in the Premier League?

How many games were selling out "well in advance"? How long is "well in advance"?

 

These are the really important questions that you need to ask when trying to work out if we will need a bigger ground. And there are very few people who know the answer to those questions. At a guess, I would suggest (as Turkish says) that the extra number of people who wanted tickets for the games that did sell out was barely in the hundreds, and certainly not higher than a few thousand. But again, that's complete speculation on my behalf.

 

 

Perhaps; but then competing at the top of this division is barely having a positive effect this year than since our last forays here (depending which comparisons you use some could argue we're worse off; we're certainly not hugely up on home fan numbers from last year in a division below, that is for sure).

 

The only thing that we do know for sure is that Mr. Cortese has indicated an expanded stadium would only be on the cards when we're back in the Premier League and can demonstrate we absolutely positively need one. That is a long, long way away yet, even in his own words.

 

Even in the Premier League 2004/05 relegation year Saints averaged over 30k. Only 10 current Premier League teams managed that last season. Imagine the interest if the club was actually any good in the Premier League!? Those four years and St Mary's in the Premier League consisted of 3 mid table finishes and one 20th place finish. All of which averaged over 30k in a 32k stadium. Any hint of success will see a surge in interest amongst the fanbase to see some of the mere 19 home league games per season.

 

Plus, see my comments above regarding Sunderland. They went from 10k season ticket holders (with no waiting list) to a 49k stadium.

Edited 4 October, 2011 by Matthew Le God

[Farnboro Saint]

The potential is huge as it's not just about catchment area size but peoples preferred team to support. Saints have always been a popular club with people from outside the immediate area and often from much further away.

 

There is an opening for a club, if they can be successful, to garner support from outside the major metro areas (eg London) in the wider region as there is no real PL competition and we can become the top level team that people can associate with.

 

100% agree, because i have experienced this first hand...

 

Im a Chandlers Ford boy, so been Saints all my life, but when i moved to Farnborough at 16, i was all by myself.....Not for long...

 

One day, down the pub, i met another Saint (he posts on this forum)...Since then, we have converted most of our friends to become Saints fans. But dont be fooled, these arent 'non football' fans...these are big, liverpool, man u and even stoke fans, who all support these clubs for various reasons (family connections etc), but whereas they will only travel 4-6 hours a couple of times a season to see 'their' team....they come with us on a regular basis to see Saints.

 

And the reason? We are a popular, attractive, south coast club, with a brilliant team, a cracking stadium and some great support!

 

So dont go thinking its all down to catchment areas, or where you live....the reality is, Saints are infectious!!! and i have three close mates, who all supposedly support different teams, but currently own Southampton FC shirts, to back me up!

[The Kraken]

Even in the relegation year Saints averaged over 30k. Only 10 current Premier League teams managed that last season. Imagine the interest if the club was actually any good in the Premier League. Those four years and St Mary's in the Premier League consisted of 3 mid table finishes and one 20th place finish. All of which averaged over 30k in a 32k stadium.

 

Plus, see my comments above regarding Sunderland. They went from 10k season ticket holders (with no waiting list) to a 49k stadium.

 

You've said it there yourself. IMAGINE what the interest could be. It's an emotional response to what might be, cherry picking stats from other clubs to try and paint a particular picture when in actual fact its completely debatable how relevant those stats are.

 

Again, the questions you absolutely need to be able to answer are these:

 

How many fans were getting turned away when we were in the Premier League?

How many games were selling out "well in advance"? How long is "well in advance"?

 

I'm pretty sure Mr. Cortese will only answer any desires for a bigger stadium when he has years of evidence to suggest we need one; I do not believe for a minute that we have that yet, and without answering those vital questions I do not believe that you have either.

[Turkish]

I have never said 50k for every game. But if the club really did challenge towards the top of the Premier League I don't see why 50k for some of the big fixtures wouldn't be possible. Teams like Man City, Liverpool, Spurs, Chelsea etc are restricted by their current stadiums, they could all sell a lot more tickets than 50k. So

What evidence do you want exactly? You keep harping on about season ticket waiting lists when for example Sunderland had only 10k season ticket holders in their last season at a 22k Roker Park, they had no waiting list at Roker and in the years building up to moving didn't get close to averaging near the capacity, they then moved to a 49k seater stadium.

 

Ahh Sunderland, good example. Isn't their record crowd at Roker Park 75k or something. Evidence of a huge potential fanbase compared to Saints record crowd at tthe Dell of a huge 31k.

 

evidence? Well Id like to see a history of crowds in the past to suggest the fan base is there, 75k like Sunderland once had would be good. Waiting lists for season tickets when we peaked in 2003, how many disappointed fans had their faces pressed against the gates trying to get a glimpse of the pitch after being locked out in that period, come in there must be thousands of them, surely a few must post on here. I can't see a single shread of evidence that we can get crowds of 50k other than you saying you can't see why not.

Edited 4 October, 2011 by Turkish

[Matthew Le God]

You've said it there yourself. IMAGINE what the interest could be. It's an emotional response to what might be, cherry picking stats from other clubs to try and paint a particular picture when in actual fact its completely debatable how relevant those stats are.

 

Again, the questions you absolutely need to be able to answer are these:

 

How many fans were getting turned away when we were in the Premier League?

How many games were selling out "well in advance"? How long is "well in advance"?

 

I'm pretty sure Mr. Cortese will only answer any desires for a bigger stadium when he has years of evidence to suggest we need one; I do not believe for a minute that we have that yet, and without answering those vital questions I do not believe that you have either.

 

Well do you not agree it would be foolish to think Saints coming 20th in the Premier League and averaging 30, 610, that season would not attract significantly larger numbers if they were fighting it out towards the top of the league? The average whilst in a relegation campaign of over 30k is evidence in itself that at 32k the stadium is too small.

 

As for your other questions...

 

How many fans were getting turned away when we were in the Premier League?

 

You are right I don't know, nor do you. But the club would know, so Cortese knows and he is the one that has decided a stadium of 44k - 50k is feasible. I doubt he takes such decisions lightly.

 

Also, many wouldn't have tried to buy tickets once the sold out banner went up. Plus a larger stadium allows for more flexible ticketing promotions, free tickets to schools, family deals etc etc all of which would boost the crowds.

 

How many games were selling out "well in advance"? How long is "well in advance"?

 

As someone else mentioned, a game against Chelsea sold out in 6 hours. I remember games in the Premier League that sold out one or two weeks before the day of the game. Once that happens people stop trying to get tickets because they would know none are available.