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After 10 games


hutch

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What do you mean "why"? The Championship is a 24 team league, by making Saints have to overtake that of the 2nd place team rather than replacing them it makes it a 25 team league.

 

Well that makes little sense, I don't even think you know what you're trying to get across there. I think it's best you try not to explain it any further.

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Nicola "Nigel, very pleased with your start. Do you think you have promotion in hand?"

 

Nigel "thanks boss. Hopefully, tell you what, I'll ring the managers who got promotion the last few years to see what we need to do"

 

 

Nigel (to the if we last four managers who came 2nd) "Hi, its nigel here. How hard was it to get promoted?"

 

Managers "Hi Nigel. You have started so well, playing like Brazil. You need a steady season, if we had been scoring like you are 80 points would have been enough"

 

 

 

Nigel to Nicola "Boss, looks like 80 points should do it. With our start I reckon if we win all of our home games and then beat skates and Brighton away, we will have plenty of points - even if we lose the rest of the home games"

 

Nicola to Nigel "That sounds good. I have also looked at the last 20 years. Do you realise that the team top after 10 games has been automatically promoted in 13 of those seasons. Even Sheff U who started 05/06 with 9 wins and one defeat went up automatically."

 

Nigel "did they boss, some people are too lazy to look that sort of thing up!"

Nicola "do you think CB Fry and Krackan will be able to follow this?"

Nigel "no, don't think so"

 

 

For one, I have made no comment about "the top after ten game" statistic, so not sure where that little dig is from.

 

But I am absolutely delighted that I "cannot follow" your idea that 80 points is enough, when frankly it isn't.

 

80 points would not have got us to second last season.

 

Or in 2009-10.

 

Or 2008-09.

 

It would in 2007-08. Well done.

 

But not in 2006-7.

 

Or in 2005-6.

 

Or in 2004-5.

 

Or in 2003-4.

 

Or in 2002-3.

 

Or in 2001-2.

 

Or in 2000-1.

 

So one season out of eleven has eighty points been "enough" to finish second.

 

Do you think you, and MLG, and all the rest of you wallies will be able to follow this?

 

 

Surely it's obvious. You need one point more than the team in 3rd place to secure 2nd place. It's kind of irrelevant what the teams in 2nd actually got, whether it was one or 10 points more than the team in 3rd. Therefore you should look at what the teams in 3rd finished with in order to understand what target you should be aiming for.

 

No, it's not. Because that is what teams in second place tend to get. They get 85 points, or 87 points or ninety points. Us bumming about being satisfied with 80 doesn't actually stop other teams actually trying to finish second getting that number of points.

 

As we can see, 80 points is enough to get second in one season out of eleven. That, to me, is pretty bloody relevant.

Edited by CB Fry
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What do you mean "why"? The Championship is a 24 team league, by making Saints have to overtake that of the 2nd place team rather than replacing them it makes it a 25 team league.

 

But why is it the team in second (conveniently the team with about 85 points) the one that magically disappears? Why not the team in fourth, or eighth, or twelfth or twentieth?

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Because it is a 24 team league, not a 25 team league. One team is replaced by Saints and that team is the one that comes 2nd in this example.

 

But assuming that no one performs to the average second place level this season other than the team which wins the league is stupid. If a team gets slightly more than the average third place level it is a reasonable expectation that two teams will finish above them - they might not, but they probably will.

 

Your logic is flawed.

 

This need be the last post on the subject as it is correct.

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Because it is a 24 team league, not a 25 team league. One team is replaced by Saints and that team is the one that comes 2nd in this example.

 

Take 2010/11 for example you could have been promoted on 81 points but you actually need 84 points. Its simple there is a gulf between what you might need (what you could have got away with) to what you actually need.

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If you answer all 5 questions I asked, you might have a bit of a dilemma

 

If your last question was how times would the second team have gone up if they got 81 points. Then the answer would have been what you were looking for.

 

But the realtlity is that the second placed team averaged more than 81 points, so if southampton are to come second then they have to beat that higher average and not just 81 points.

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What a strange thread this has turned in to, 2nd and 3rd's everywhere.

 

Why bother getting caught up in all this crap? Just enjoy the games every saturday and have a laugh. I know that's difficult for some.

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Yup - I'm delighted and extremely optimistic for the future now that after 10 games we are in first place. I never thought this would be the case and even if we fall back to the pack we can still feel strong about the places our team will be going in the coming months/years.

 

So pleased!

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