After 10 games

[Foxstone]

After 10 games we are 2 points clear at the top of the league !

 

Yep I think I can safely say this has exceeded all my expectations...

[Ian the Red]

Want to see how we do against Derby, Boro and the Hammers before hanging out the bunting.

 

But cautiously optmistic. We wont go down, thats for sure.

 

Steady on Alps, your nearly being optimistic!

 

I have stated before that I believe we will achieve automatic promotion. Having seen 7 of the 10 games I have yet to see another team as good as us. The next 4 games will be very interesting, Derby, West ham, Reading and Boro. I expect 4 straight wins but would take 3 wins and draw and still top of the league.

 

But I do believe we need cover for Ricky. If he picks up an injury we will suffer. Plus another CB please.

 

Delighted with the 1st 10 games, another 22 points from the next 10 must be the goal!

Edited 3 October, 2011 by Ian the Red

[doddisalegend]

Steady on Alps, your nearly being optimistic!

 

I have stated before that I believe we will achieve automatic promotion. Having seen 7 of the 10 games I have yet to see another team as good as us. The next 4 games will be very interesting, Derby, West ham, Reading and Boro. I expect 4 straight wins but would take 3 wins and draw and still top of the league.

 

But I do believe we need cover for Ricky. If he picks up an injury we will suffer. Plus another CB please.

 

Delighted with the 1st 10 games, another 22 points from the next 10 must be the goal!

 

Really? At home maybe but away from home against derby will be tough, Boro seem to take some beating too. I reckon if we win all those there will be no stopping us.

[RedArmy]

Of the last 10 teams to be sitting top after 10 games, only 3 have gone on to win the league. (QPR, Newcastle and Portsmouth)

[Matthew Le God]

Of the last 10 teams to be sitting top after 10 games, only 3 have gone on to win the league. (QPR, Newcastle and Portsmouth)

 

That is completely irrelevant to how Saints will do in 2011/12.

[Dark Munster]

Of the last 10 teams to be sitting top after 10 games, only 3 have gone on to win the league. (QPR, Newcastle and Portsmouth)

 

Yes, but how many got promoted? (That's all that counts).

[NickG]

We need about 80 points for promotion.

 

We have 22 after 10 games, repeated for the rest of season would give 101 points.

 

To get 80 points we need 58 points from the remaining 36 games, which is 1.6 points per game, less than 5 points per 3 game group.

 

If we win all of our remaining home games we will get 76 points, so nearly enough for promotion.

 

Our great start has put us in a position when we have a good chance of being able to rely on our home form.

 

Keep winning at home and any away points are a bonus - particularly against rivals.

[david in sweden]

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/stats/fairplay/_/league/eng.2/english-league-championship?cc=5739

 

Also top of the Fair Play table. Look who's bottom

 

 

.....and same old Leeds also....FOUR red cards already and it's only beginning of October...

 

remember the old 1970's war cry ..Leeds United ..HARD ..but fair ..(?)...times must have changed a bit .

[RinNY]

We need about 80 points for promotion.

 

We have 22 after 10 games, repeated for the rest of season would give 101 points.

 

To get 80 points we need 58 points from the remaining 36 games, which is 1.6 points per game, less than 5 points per 3 game group.

 

If we win all of our remaining home games we will get 76 points, so nearly enough for promotion.

 

Our great start has put us in a position when we have a good chance of being able to rely on our home form.

 

Keep winning at home and any away points are a bonus - particularly against rivals.

 

 

I doubt 80 points will guarantee promotion, though it'd no doubt be enough to get into the playoffs. Those playoffs are hardly a sure bet for promotion though.

 

To secure automatic promotion -- which must surely be our aim now -- I reckon we'll need to aim for 90 points, though a few less might do it.

 

We won't win all our remaining home games; but if we maintain good home form and beat the beatable teams away from home, there's no reason why we can't hit 90 points and automatic promotion: we're a quarter of the way there after all, already!

[Matthew Le God]

We need about 80 points for promotion.

 

I doubt 80 points will guarantee promotion

 

I reckon we'll need to aim for 90 points, though a few less might do it.

 

80 points has been the level of 3rd place in recent history...

 

2010/11 3rd place 80 points

2009/10 3rd place 79 points

2008/09 3rd place 80 points

2007/08 3rd place 75 points

[NickG]

so yes 80 is about right, in last four years - two 80 would have been enough, two 81.

 

home form will be the story of this season imho.

[Ian the Red]

As already said I am delighted with the start, but I did expect a good start. For the record I believe we will confirm promotion on 7th April, hammering the skate ba£$ards @ SMS and of course relagating p*mpey scum to League 1.......

[Dark Munster]

As already said I am delighted with the start, but I did expect a good start. For the record I believe we will confirm promotion on 7th April, hammering the skate ba£$ards @ SMS and of course relagating p*mpey scum to League 1.......

 

Strange, I dreamt that 2 years ago!

 

http://www.saintsweb.co.uk/showthread.php?14620-Pompey-Takeover-Saga&p=526567#post526567

[CB Fry]

That is completely irrelevant to how Saints will do in 2011/12.

 

Says the man who uses Wolves and Chelsea's situation in the eighties, and Sunderlands in the mid nineties, to justify his opinions.

Edited 5 October, 2011 by CB Fry

[vince]

80 points has been the level of 3rd place in recent history...

 

2010/11 3rd place 80 points

2009/10 3rd place 79 points

2008/09 3rd place 80 points

2007/08 3rd place 75 points

 

Points to finish in an automatic place gives a slightly different perspective:

 

2010/11 2nd place 84

2009/10 2nd place 91

2008/09 2nd place 83

2007/08 2nd place 79

 

So 80 points has only been good enough to finish 2nd in one of the last 4 seasons. In fact going back further, it looks like mid to high 80's would be needed to *finish* 2nd

 

http://www.footymad.net/football-league-tables/?divno=63&ssnno=141

[CB Fry]

so yes 80 is about right, in last four years - two 80 would have been enough, two 81.

 

home form will be the story of this season imho.

 

 

How do you work that out when you look at the following...

 

Points to finish in an automatic place gives a slightly different perspective:

 

2010/11 2nd place 84

2009/10 2nd place 91

2008/09 2nd place 83

2007/08 2nd place 79

 

So 80 points has only been good enough to finish 2nd in one of the last 4 seasons. In fact going back further, it looks like mid to high 80's would be needed to *finish* 2nd

 

http://www.footymad.net/football-league-tables/?divno=63&ssnno=141

 

 

Aiming to get one more point than the teams that have recently finished third is not the most reliable way to guarantee a second place finish.

 

How about we aim to get as many points as the teams that actually did finish second - solid high eighties should just about do it.

[Saint Without a Halo]

How about we focus on the 2 points a game average. Win at home and draw away as an average will see any team to the top two, usually with a bit of comfort to spare.

 

so far so good we are on 2.2

[Dark Munster]

Points to finish in an automatic place gives a slightly different perspective:

 

2010/11 2nd place 84

2009/10 2nd place 91

2008/09 2nd place 83

2007/08 2nd place 79

 

So 80 points has only been good enough to finish 2nd in one of the last 4 seasons. In fact going back further, it looks like mid to high 80's would be needed to *finish* 2nd

 

http://www.footymad.net/football-league-tables/?divno=63&ssnno=141

 

2010/11 3rd place 80 points

2009/10 3rd place 79 points

2008/09 3rd place 80 points

2007/08 3rd place 75 points

 

So 80 points was enough to finish 2nd in each of the last 4 years (with a good goal difference required in 2 of them).

[Matthew Le God]

80 points has been the level of 3rd place in recent history...

 

2010/11 3rd place 80 points

2009/10 3rd place 79 points

2008/09 3rd place 80 points

2007/08 3rd place 75 points

 

Points to finish in an automatic place gives a slightly different perspective:

 

2010/11 2nd place 84

2009/10 2nd place 91

2008/09 2nd place 83

2007/08 2nd place 79

 

So 80 points has only been good enough to finish 2nd in one of the last 4 seasons. In fact going back further, it looks like mid to high 80's would be needed to *finish* 2nd

 

In order to finish 2nd you need to better that of the 3rd place team. It isn't a 25 team league, it is a 24 team league and Saints would taking the place of one of those top two teams and be taking points off other teams. So circa 80 points is around the mark you need to be beating.

 

Otherwise that would mean if in these seasons Saints finished in the top two, 3rd place would read...

 

2010/11 3rd place 84

2009/10 3rd place 91

2008/09 3rd place 83

2007/08 3rd place 79

Edited 5 October, 2011 by Matthew Le God

[Legod Third Coming]

The next four games will define our season. I have a feeling we will win them all.

Because:

 

1. We are undoubtedly the best team in the league.

2. All of those teams will have a go , which suits us well.

3. A superb team spirit which sees victory as an inevitable consequence of hard work and belief.

[NickG]

We need about 80 points for promotion.

 

We have 22 after 10 games, repeated for the rest of season would give 101 points.

 

To get 80 points we need 58 points from the remaining 36 games, which is 1.6 points per game, less than 5 points per 3 game group.

 

If we win all of our remaining home games we will get 76 points, so nearly enough for promotion.

 

Our great start has put us in a position when we have a good chance of being able to rely on our home form.

 

Keep winning at home and any away points are a bonus - particularly against rivals.

 

so enjoy a 100% home record, beating skate, Brighton and Reading away and we will be up!

[Dynamo Naive]

In summery, we should be on 30 points and ten points clear of Middlesbrough.

 

But it's autumny now

[martel]

We need about 80 points for promotion.

 

We have 22 after 10 games, repeated for the rest of season would give 101 points.

 

To get 80 points we need 58 points from the remaining 36 games, which is 1.6 points per game, less than 5 points per 3 game group.

 

If we win all of our remaining home games we will get 76 points, so nearly enough for promotion.

 

Our great start has put us in a position when we have a good chance of being able to rely on our home form.

 

Keep winning at home and any away points are a bonus - particularly against rivals.

 

Based on this then we have to be real candidates for promotion, however, once in the premiership staying their is another issue altogether, look at the clubs that have gone up and come straight back down in the first season. Their are though exceptions to the rule, Stoke for example have done a good job on staying up and seem to play every game like an F.A. cup final, with this in mind will Cortese make the required investment to ensure we have the players signed to first stay in the premeirship and then challenge for Champions league as laid out in his plans; for me this is a big call but am interested in what my fellow fans think.

[NickG]

It does make it look worryingly achievable!

 

Think one thing in our favour is that we are, in the main, a young squad. Players who you would hope could get better and be good enough to play in a mid-table prem side.

 

If we do go up this season it will be, imho, down to 2 years of good management, team spirit and confidence, and a great home record for two years - all of those will give us a good basis for the premiership.

 

One step at a time..just keep winning all the home games and I will start getting confident! Still early days and would look very different if we dropped points in next few home games.

[CB Fry]

In order to finish 2nd you need to better that of the 3rd place team. It isn't a 25 team league, it is a 24 team league and Saints would taking the place of one of those top two teams and be taking points off other teams. So circa 80 points is around the mark you need to be beating.

 

Otherwise that would mean if in these seasons Saints finished in the top two, 3rd place would read...

 

2010/11 3rd place 84

2009/10 3rd place 91

2008/09 3rd place 83

2007/08 3rd place 79

 

 

I've read this about four times and still have no idea what you are on about. In three of the four seasons you quote above, eighty points is not enough to finish in second place.

 

If a runner in marathon overtakes the person in third place, what position is he now in?

 

Ponder that, and then ponder your own utter stupidity.

 

 

We need to finish second for automatic promotion, and the benchmark for that over recent seasons is solid mid eighties, with low nineties to be sure. 80 points will likely see us in third, especially as it is some way off the holy grail of two points per game.

[Raging Bull]

b******s to all this 2nd place talk, aim at number 1, that is all

[NickG]

I've read this about four times and still have no idea what you are on about. In three of the four seasons you quote above, eighty points is not enough to finish in second place.

 

If a runner in marathon overtakes the person in third place, what position is he now in?

 

Ponder that, and then ponder your own utter stupidity.

 

 

We need to finish second for automatic promotion, and the benchmark for that over recent seasons is solid mid eighties, with low nineties to be sure. 80 points will likely see us in third, especially as it is some way off the holy grail of two points per game.

 

think you should try a 5th read! Makes sense, his is logical.

[vince]

think you should try a 5th read! Makes sense, his is logical.

 

Logical after a fashion. Basically, completely remove the 2nd place team, they don't exist. Place us above the 3rd team, that's what you need to beat, as that's where we need to finish to be 2nd, since you've removed the 2nd team from history - you only need to beat what 3rd achieved, not what 2nd actually got. Averaged over the last 12 seasons, 3rd got nearly 82 points, beat that, and you're probably up.

 

To get back to the original question, personally i thought we would start "ok" since we already had a winning mentality and had not lost any significant part of the squad. Oxo would be a thought, but he wasn't involved much in the run in where we were unstoppable, and we had added Jack Cork into that squad - basically, we were playing well and knew how to win. I'm pleasantly surprised that we are top, but we had momentum on our side. I'm going to enjoy the ride for as long as I can, it's been a long time coming.

[CB Fry]

Logical after a fashion. Basically, completely remove the 2nd place team, they don't exist. Place us above the 3rd team, that's what you need to beat, as that's where we need to finish to be 2nd, since you've removed the 2nd team from history - you only need to beat what 3rd achieved, not what 2nd actually got. Averaged over the last 12 seasons, 3rd got nearly 82 points, beat that, and you're probably up.

 

I get the explanation, I just don't get why anyone thinks it is remotely logical. A team getting slightly more than the third place team does not mean that the team in second gets removed from history. Quite the opposite - history clearly shows teams in second getting mid-eighties and even ninety points. Why would they be removed from history?

 

Ask an athlete what he targets to win - does he aim to everso slightly beat the bloke in second, or does he want to beat the guy in first. There is a hell of a lot of difference between those two mindsets.

 

Ask the Norwich and QPR teams whether they are aiming to match the third bottom placed teams average, and hoping the fourth bottom team is removed from history.....or are they aiming at least to get what fourth bottom gets?

 

History and league flipping tables show that low eighties is almost certainly not enough. Aim for that and we'll end the season with the second placed team not removed from history at all, because they'll be there. In second place. Funnily enough.

 

Overtake the guy in third, and all you do is finish third.

Edited 7 October, 2011 by CB Fry

[Fan The Flames]

What are the stats of the third place team going up, we nred to know because my gut feeling is its low.

[hutch]

How many points did we need to get to finish in second place last season?

 

I used to think 87 would have been enough, but after reading this thread I now believe that we actually needed to get 93 to make sure that we finished above Southampton who finished in second place with 92 points and a good goal difference.

[NickG]

How many points did we need to get to finish in second place last season?

 

I used to think 87 would have been enough, but after reading this thread I now believe that we actually needed to get 93 to make sure that we finished above Southampton who finished in second place with 92 points and a good goal difference.

 

think you clearly show why he is missing the point! lol

[The Kraken]

I get the explanation, I just don't get why anyone thinks it is remotely logical. A team getting slightly more than the third place team does not mean that the team in second gets removed from history. Quite the opposite - history clearly shows teams in second getting mid-eighties and even ninety points. Why would they be removed from history?

 

Ask an athlete what he targets to win - does he aim to everso slightly beat the bloke in second, or does he want to beat the guy in first. There is a hell of a lot of difference between those two mindsets.

 

Ask the Norwich and QPR teams whether they are aiming to match the third bottom placed teams average, and hoping the fourth bottom team is removed from history.....or are they aiming at least to get what fourth bottom gets?

 

History and league flipping tables show that low eighties is almost certainly not enough. Aim for that and we'll end the season with the second placed team not removed from history at all, because they'll be there. In second place. Funnily enough.

 

Overtake the guy in third, and all you do is finish third.

 

Correct. Where this assumption comes from that the second placed team gets automatically removed, I don't know.

[Fan The Flames]

I guess it depends where you are in the league, if you are above third then 1 point more than third is enough however below third and 1 point more than third may not be enough.

 

So if its a difference between what may be enough and what is enough then plan for the higher figure.

[Leicestersaint]

I am delighted - i thought we would do well this season but this has exceeded all my expectations. My only concern is that we are letting in too many goals - but then we have a goal difference of plus 13! Fantastic.

[tpbury]

I'm going to mention SheffU (again). 100% after first 10 - didn't get promoted. Can somebody look that up? (about 6 years ago??). Yes, I am too lazy to look it up.

[NickG]

Nicola "Nigel, very pleased with your start. Do you think you have promotion in hand?"

 

Nigel "thanks boss. Hopefully, tell you what, I'll ring the managers who got promotion the last few years to see what we need to do"

 

 

Nigel (to the if we last four managers who came 2nd) "Hi, its nigel here. How hard was it to get promoted?"

 

Managers "Hi Nigel. You have started so well, playing like Brazil. You need a steady season, if we had been scoring like you are 80 points would have been enough"

 

 

 

Nigel to Nicola "Boss, looks like 80 points should do it. With our start I reckon if we win all of our home games and then beat skates and Brighton away, we will have plenty of points - even if we lose the rest of the home games"

 

Nicola to Nigel "That sounds good. I have also looked at the last 20 years. Do you realise that the team top after 10 games has been automatically promoted in 13 of those seasons. Even Sheff U who started 05/06 with 9 wins and one defeat went up automatically."

 

Nigel "did they boss, some people are too lazy to look that sort of thing up!"

Nicola "do you think CB Fry and Krackan will be able to follow this?"

Nigel "no, don't think so"

[Turkish]

Nicola "Nigel, very pleased with your start. Do you think you have promotion in hand?"

 

Nigel "thanks boss. Hopefully, tell you what, I'll ring the managers who got promotion the last few years to see what we need to do"

 

 

Nigel (to the if we last four managers who came 2nd) "Hi, its nigel here. How hard was it to get promoted?"

 

Managers "Hi Nigel. You have started so well, playing like Brazil. You need a steady season, if we had been scoring like you are 80 points would have been enough"

 

 

 

Nigel to Nicola "Boss, looks like 80 points should do it. With our start I reckon if we win all of our home games and then beat skates and Brighton away, we will have plenty of points - even if we lose the rest of the home games"

 

Nicola to Nigel "That sounds good. I have also looked at the last 20 years. Do you realise that the team top after 10 games has been automatically promoted in 13 of those seasons. Even Sheff U who started 05/06 with 9 wins and one defeat went up automatically."

 

Nigel "did they boss, some people are too lazy to look that sort of thing up!"

Nicola "do you think CB Fry and Krackan will be able to follow this?"

Nigel "no, don't think so"

 

LMFAO/ I love posts like this with made up conversations between people. Pure genius.

[hutch]

Quick, you've still got time to edit the typo - nope, too late

[The Kraken]

Nicola "Nigel, very pleased with your start. Do you think you have promotion in hand?"

 

Nigel "thanks boss. Hopefully, tell you what, I'll ring the managers who got promotion the last few years to see what we need to do"

 

 

Nigel (to the if we last four managers who came 2nd) "Hi, its nigel here. How hard was it to get promoted?"

 

Managers "Hi Nigel. You have started so well, playing like Brazil. You need a steady season, if we had been scoring like you are 80 points would have been enough"

 

 

 

Nigel to Nicola "Boss, looks like 80 points should do it. With our start I reckon if we win all of our home games and then beat skates and Brighton away, we will have plenty of points - even if we lose the rest of the home games"

 

Nicola to Nigel "That sounds good. I have also looked at the last 20 years. Do you realise that the team top after 10 games has been automatically promoted in 13 of those seasons. Even Sheff U who started 05/06 with 9 wins and one defeat went up automatically."

 

Nigel "did they boss, some people are too lazy to look that sort of thing up!"

Nicola "do you think CB Fry and Krackan will be able to follow this?"

Nigel "no, don't think so"

 

Who on earth is "Krackan"?

 

Nice conversation, by the way. If it makes you sleep better at night, then whatever you say Nick, whatever you say.

[Fan The Flames]

Managers "Hi Nigel. You have started so well, playing like Brazil. You need a steady season, if we had been scoring like you are 80 points would have been enough"

 

So many mistakes so I wont be greedy and stick to this one. How does scoring lots of goals change the amount of points needed, is there some sort of football Duckworth Lewis formula.

[The Kraken]

So many mistakes so I wont be greedy and stick to this one. How does scoring lots of goals change the amount of points needed, is there some sort of football Duckworth Lewis formula.

 

It's the fantastic world of NickG, anything's possible in that particular happy little bubble.

[Alanh]

Surely it's obvious. You need one point more than the team in 3rd place to secure 2nd place. It's kind of irrelevant what the teams in 2nd actually got, whether it was one or 10 points more than the team in 3rd. Therefore you should look at what the teams in 3rd finished with in order to understand what target you should be aiming for.

[The Kraken]

Surely it's obvious. You need one point more than the team in 3rd place to secure 2nd place. It's kind of irrelevant what the teams in 2nd actually got, whether it was one or 10 points more than the team in 3rd. Therefore you should look at what the teams in 3rd finished with in order to understand what target you should be aiming for.

 

Why does the team in second just automatically disappear? If you beat the team in thrid place by a point, then you're in third place (unless the team in second place just magically erases itself).

Edited 7 October, 2011 by The Kraken

[Legod Third Coming]

So many mistakes so I wont be greedy and stick to this one. How does scoring lots of goals change the amount of points needed, is there some sort of football Duckworth Lewis formula.

 

LOL - I love the idea of a football D/L method... What it does though is:

 

a. helps us win more games. I'm never sure of football law but one thing I do recall from school, if you score more than the other team, you are declared the winner.

b. helps should we need to win promotion on 'goals scored' if we finish equal on points and goal difference.

c. encourages meaningless drivel like Nick's and now this... oops...

[Fan The Flames]

Surely it's obvious. You need one point more than the team in 3rd place to secure 2nd place. It's kind of irrelevant what the teams in 2nd actually got, whether it was one or 10 points more than the team in 3rd. Therefore you should look at what the teams in 3rd finished with in order to understand what target you should be aiming for.

 

But we are not the only team trying to beat third, so as everyone else is then you have to go for definatley being second. So that means being a point better than second.

[hutch]

2010/11 QPR 88 Norwich 84 Swansea 80 Where would Norwich have finished if they'd only got 81?

 

2009/10 Newcastle 102 West Brom 91 Forest 79 Where would West Brom have finished if they'd only got 80?

 

2008/09 Wolves 90 Brum 83 Sheff Utd 80 Where would Brum have finished if they'd only got 81?

 

2007/08 West Brom 81 Stoke 79 Hull 75 Where would Stoke have finished if they'd only got 80?

 

So if you ended up with 81 points, how many times in the past four championship seasons would you have won automatic promotion?

[Fan The Flames]

2010/11 QPR 88 Norwich 84 Swansea 80 Where would Norwich have finished if they'd only got 81?

 

2009/10 Newcastle 102 West Brom 91 Forest 79 Where would West Brom have finished if they'd only got 80?

 

2008/09 Wolves 90 Brum 83 Sheff Utd 80 Where would Brum have finished if they'd only got 81?

 

2007/08 West Brom 81 Stoke 79 Hull 75 Where would Stoke have finished if they'd only got 80?

 

So if you ended up with 81 points, how many times in the past four championship seasons would you have won automatic promotion?

 

Once

[The Kraken]

Once

 

Correct. I still don't understand why the second placed team just magically disappears.

[Matthew Le God]

Why does the team in second just automatically disappear? If you beat the team in thrid place by a point, then you're in third place (unless the team in second place just magically erases itself).

 

I still don't understand why the second placed team just magically disappears.

 

Because it is a 24 team league, not a 25 team league. One team is replaced by Saints and that team is the one that comes 2nd in this example.