When can we start to believe.....?

[Professor]

Could this great start turn into back-to-back promotion? Obviously nothing is certain in football and its possible for a team to be in the top 2 with 4 games left and still miss out on promotion entirely. Cardiff did that last season being second with 4 games left to play, dropping to 4th and losing in the play-offs. NA is rightly cautious as he tries to balance confidence against complacency, and says he's not going to look at the table until January but as fans we look at it all the time.

 

A comparison with last season's championship table is interesting. The promoted teams, Norwich, Leeds and Millwall finished 2nd, 7th and 9th. In September 2010, (after 7 games) the promoted teams were 4th, 9th and 12th, so no dramatic change during the season, in fact a slight improvement. This year the promoted teams are 1st, 3rd and 10th. You can't improve on 1st and there are games to come against some of the clubs close behind us, but maybe we can start to believe that this could be it.

 

There's also a comparison for the relegated clubs, bearing in mind the advantage they should have of holding on to players with premier league experience and having the parachute payments. Last season the relegated clubs were Burnley, Hull and Portsmouth. After 7 games they were at 8th, 18th and 20th, and finished 8th, 11th and 16th. So they improved but were never in the promotion race. This year the relegated teams after 7 games, are 5th, 7th and 14th. So this year's three have made a slightly better start than last year's three but not exactly setting the Championship alight. This could mean that the top of League 1 and the bottom of the Prem are not so far apart as the money paid to the players would suggest. Maybe a settled team going upwards has advantages over disrupted teams going downwards that are changing managers and players as they go.

 

The belief may have to be revised if things go wrong, as Cardiff found last year, but right now it seems reasonable to believe that there will be premier league football at the SMS again next season.

[Colinjb]

I would say at the end of January.

 

At that point if we have:

 

1) Been playing consistently well and be in a play-off/automatic position

2) Kept the bulk of squad together through the transfer window

3) Strengthened in the transfer window

 

Then I will believe we have a chance.

[hypochondriac]

I would say at the end of January.

 

At that point if we have:

 

1) Been playing consistently well and be in a play-off/automatic position

2) Kept the bulk of squad together through the transfer window

3) Strengthened in the transfer window

 

Then I will believe we have a chance.

 

I think that is they key. If we are in a strong position in January, then it will be much easier to persuade one or two quality payers to join us. If we do that then we could really bolster our chance. It's a luxury that the likes of Portsmouth can only dream of .

[dubai_phil]

Everyone needs something to believe in.

 

I believe it's time for a beer.

[The Kraken]

I'm not sure why anybody needs to ask permission to have faith in their football team.

 

If you really think we're going up, why be a sheep and wait for everyone else to believe?

[yorkiesaint]

i will start to think realistically of this when we have beaten a team in the top ten.

[Redondo Saint]

Could this great start turn into back-to-back promotion? Obviously nothing is certain in football and its possible for a team to be in the top 2 with 4 games left and still miss out on promotion entirely. Cardiff did that last season being second with 4 games left to play, dropping to 4th and losing in the play-offs. NA is rightly cautious as he tries to balance confidence against complacency, and says he's not going to look at the table until January but as fans we look at it all the time.

 

A comparison with last season's championship table is interesting. The promoted teams, Norwich, Leeds and Millwall finished 2nd, 7th and 9th. In September 2010, (after 7 games) the promoted teams were 4th, 9th and 12th, so no dramatic change during the season, in fact a slight improvement. This year the promoted teams are 1st, 3rd and 10th. You can't improve on 1st and there are games to come against some of the clubs close behind us, but maybe we can start to believe that this could be it.

 

There's also a comparison for the relegated clubs, bearing in mind the advantage they should have of holding on to players with premier league experience and having the parachute payments. Last season the relegated clubs were Burnley, Hull and Portsmouth. After 7 games they were at 8th, 18th and 20th, and finished 8th, 11th and 16th. So they improved but were never in the promotion race. This year the relegated teams after 7 games, are 5th, 7th and 14th. So this year's three have made a slightly better start than last year's three but not exactly setting the Championship alight. This could mean that the top of League 1 and the bottom of the Prem are not so far apart as the money paid to the players would suggest. Maybe a settled team going upwards has advantages over disrupted teams going downwards that are changing managers and players as they go.

 

The belief may have to be revised if things go wrong, as Cardiff found last year, but right now it seems reasonable to believe that there will be premier league football at the SMS again next season.

 

You stated the other day that we are only at the top because we have played poor teams. ??

[Super_Uwe]

The start we've had is just magnificent, it is beyond any of our expectations.

 

But it only matters to a certain extent as we are a long way from the business end of the season. If we are in contention around the start of the year then I think we have got everything in place to get promotion again this year. We have got the best team spirit since 01-03 under WGS, and you cannot underestimate how important that is.

 

We will no doubt have a sticky patch at some stage of the season, but the faith that I have in the team at the moment is something I haven't had ever as a Saints fan before. It does feel wrong to be honest though!

[Winnersaint]

End of April. Then I'll believe.

[Golden Balls]

I've been a saints fan too long to get my hopes up too high. But theres nothing wrong in having faith and enjoying it

[Saint_clark]

i will start to think realistically of this when we have beaten a team in the top ten.

 

Considering there's only 6 points seperating the teams in 6th and 19th place, I don't think it's fair to say we've "only" beaten teams in the bottom half.

[Ohio Saint]

After the Brum result I believe that this is the most united in it's opinions about what's going on, on the pitch that this forum has ever been. And I mean ever!!

[Doctoroncall]

Didn't QPR and Brighton stay top for most of season 10/11?

 

Just saying, not expecting.

[sambosa75]

Not a question of "believing", its a question of enjoying the moment. We are 1/7th of the way through the season but we are top of the league. So a few fans want to sign "we are going up" to away fans to lord it over them a bit. Let them. We've been through enough bad times recently to afford our fans the opportunity to bask in the sunshine of being top of the league, no matter how temporary it may or may not be.

[Topcat]

Working to a 90 point target (achieved 2nd+ slot in 8 out of 10 past years).

15% of games gone

20% of target achieved.

A brilliant start and in no game have we been overwhelmed.

[Wade Garrett]

I think we'll do very well if we keep key players free of injury.

[notnowcato]

By the end of October we will have a much clearer understanding of where we stand. Huge games coming up for us, home to Boro and West Ham, away to derby and reading. If we are still top 2 by the end of October then I will entertain the serious thought of us going up. Obviously I hope we will.

[redkeith]

Being so early in the sreason, losing one game can have a big effect on your League position (14% of avaikable points).

 

If we had lost at Ipswich,Millwall, Barnesley , Brum or Forest, they would now be midtable, while Leeds would be 6th had they won at St Mary's.

 

I have seen Skate fans rationalising that they have played lots of teams in the top 8. Perhaps those teams are in the top 8 because they have taken so many points off of Pompey ?

 

You can only beat what is in front of you, and so far I have heard nothing much to worry me on the commentarys, other than the first half at Leicester, and the odd 20 minute spell.

 

Of course this could all change if we get some defeats, and players no longer have the confidence to pass and move ( like Blackpool after xmas last year ), but until then I am optomistic.

[Ivan Katalinic's 'tache]

We're Southampton, we'll do what we like. And that means get promotion. There, I've said it.

[hutch]

To be fair though, it is a valid point. So far this season we've only played against teams who are below us in the league. Skates, on the other hand have played most of their games against teams above them, so they're right, aren't they? We have had a much easier start than them.

[Ohio Saint]

To be fair though, it is a valid point. So far this season we've only played against teams who are below us in the league. Skates, on the other hand have played most of their games against teams above them, so they're right, aren't they? We have had a much easier start than them.

 

You really do need to use the winky smiley. People will think you are serious.

[Lord Duckhunter]

To be fair though, it is a valid point. So far this season we've only played against teams who are below us in the league. Skates, on the other hand have played most of their games against teams above them, so they're right, aren't they? We have had a much easier start than them.

 

Dont forget, they've also had every ref against them as well..........

[bomber]

Adkins already has this team believing, and that's good enough for me.

[yorkiesaint]

Considering there's only 6 points seperating the teams in 6th and 19th place, I don't think it's fair to say we've "only" beaten teams in the bottom half.

 

I'm not meaning to be negative, and the team has done amazingly well so far. But the glaring fact is that the teams we have beaten have only managed 40 points between them out of 61 games.

[slickmick]

If we beat West Ham then I will start to believe. They for me are the team to worry about.

[Window Cleaner]

I'm not meaning to be negative, and the team has done amazingly well so far. But the glaring fact is that the teams we have beaten have only managed 40 points between them out of 61 games.

 

how do you work that out then, we've beaten 6 teams,I presume they've all played 7 matches as well so without counting matches involving 2 of the 6 teams we've beaten how can that be higher than 42 matches???

[SNSUN]

We haven't played West Ham or Middlesbrough yet. 6 points against them could sway me. We also need 3 points against Leicester at home, just to even things out.

[Dalek2003]

I would say at the end of January.

 

At that point if we have:

 

1) Been playing consistently well and be in a play-off/automatic position

2) Kept the bulk of squad together through the transfer window

3) Strengthened in the transfer window

 

Then I will believe we have a chance.

 

Very sensible post. I will be happy if we consolidate this season.

[View From The Top]

Very sensible post. I will be happy if we consolidate this season.

 

But your a co ck so the rest of us don't give a flying f**k what makes you happy.

[Dalek2003]

But your a co ck so the rest of us don't give a flying f**k what makes you happy.

 

No need for that.

[david in sweden]

[quote=Professor;1146907...

when can we start to believe ..that we can do a back-to -back promotion ? QUOTE]

 

 

Honestly speaking - I did ..around the time we beat Brighton last season. If they were supposed to be the best in the league at that time, I honestly wasn't that impressed. Sure they (Brighton) won games and ground out results but our flowing football was more suited to a higher level, and we are beginning to see that now.

 

I thought us capable of automatic promotion, as many of the other sides seemed to have lost it this season, (especially sides like Burnley and Reading) ..along with the enforced selling of their best players.

 

The BIG question is .. in getting promotion how will we fare in the Premiership..?

I am certain thay Nigel is the right manager to take (and keep us) there, but what will the squad look like given that survival is of the upmost importance and any finish in the top half would be the greatest achievement in the last 30 years.

[colehillsaint]

Someones going up and we are top of the league this week, so we have more reason to be optimistic than anyone else!

 

We have shown brilliant consistency, great attitude, discipline and ability to keep the nucleus of the team fit over about 10 or 11 months now, so is it really all going to go to rat **** in 5 minutes. I remember watching us under redknapp and burley and thinking this has got to start going right in a minute, and it didn't! We were just as good as we were, and no better.

[Kingsbridge Saint]

By the end of October we will have a much clearer understanding of where we stand. Huge games coming up for us, home to Boro and West Ham, away to derby and reading. If we are still top 2 by the end of October then I will entertain the serious thought of us going up. Obviously I hope we will.

 

Yep, end of October will be statistically valid with the number of games played. If we are still top 2 then, I might adjust my expectations which are currently sat at 6th - 12th.

[Wes Tender]

It is far to early to think in terms of probabilities, but not too early to discuss possibilities. If no other team from the third division had ever achieved back to back promotions to the Premiership, then reasonable doubt could be cast upon our chances of achieving it. But Norwich did it just last season and it could be argued that we were/are at least as good as them. In the season they got promoted to the Championship, we beat them twice and drew once. Even now that they are in the Premiership, I suspect that we might beat them if we played them tomorrow.

 

OK, so there are all the naysayers who claim that this division is as hard as its ever been with teams like West Ham, Middlesborough and Brum having been relegated, but we already beat Brum and it is again debateable whether the other two would beat us in both home and away matches. If those teams are so good, why did they get relegated? We have the impetus of confidence gained from having a settled squad who have been together for some time, a winning mentality.

 

Fair enough to wait until the turn of the year and see where we are then, but having broken club records to get where we are now, there is little reason not to at least consider the possibility that we could do a Norwich.

[paris]

After Xmas / Jan period ..

[Aardvark]

To be fair though, it is a valid point. So far this season we've only played against teams who are below us in the league. Skates, on the other hand have played most of their games against teams above them, so they're right, aren't they? We have had a much easier start than them.

 

I've been doing some indepth analysis of last season's Championship and it makes for worrying reading. It turns out that the whole League is grossly unfair and biased against the lower teams. The proof? You may not believe this but QPR played ALL their games against teams that finished below them in the table, whereas poor old Sfannythorpe never played a single game against lower opposition! This can't be right - we should start at petition to get the rules changed.