Jeff Le Taxi Posted 25 August, 2011 Share Posted 25 August, 2011 Promotion should not be considered by Southampton Southampton are prominent in the Championship betting to win the title this season, but based on the results of the teams to have finished second in League One in their previous season, back-to-back promotions are definitely out of the question. Never since the introduction of the Premier League has a team been promoted in successive seasons after finishing second in League One, let only finished second in the third tier and then gone on to win the Championship in the following season. Therefore, Southampton’s chances of promotion to the Premier League look slim, although they should also have no problem consolidating their spot in the Championship. Only Peterborough in the last 11 years have gone straight back down from the Championship after finishing second in League One in the previous season. Southampton may think that one or two seasons settling into the Championship would allow them to assemble a squad ready for the Premier League, but history shows that this may not also be the case. Of the last 17 teams to have claimed second spot in League One, only four have gone on to experience the Premier League at any time after their promotion. However, the gulf in football between League One and the Championship appears to have diminished in recent seasons. And if Southampton can make a better start to the season than in previous years, they will certainly give themselves a better chance of promotion in the Championship odds than is usually the case. In the last five seasons, Southampton have never been in the top ten of a table at the start of September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glasgow_Saint Posted 25 August, 2011 Share Posted 25 August, 2011 How many years since we won this many in a row? Things change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintNeil90 Posted 25 August, 2011 Share Posted 25 August, 2011 We are 4 games in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Mikey Posted 25 August, 2011 Share Posted 25 August, 2011 Why would anyone take a bookie's advice on what to bet on? They don't want you to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia Saint Posted 25 August, 2011 Share Posted 25 August, 2011 In the last five seasons, Southampton have never been in the top ten of a table at the start of September. It's crazy to see that in black and white, we are ****ing terrible at starting the season.* * until this glorious season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
(not THE) Kevin Moore Posted 25 August, 2011 Share Posted 25 August, 2011 Be interested in seeing the champ table from this time last season? Anyone know where that could be found? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
revolution saint Posted 25 August, 2011 Share Posted 25 August, 2011 So slightly under 25% of teams who have finished 2nd in L1 have got promoted to the prem at some point - that's actually higher than I thought it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindsorSaint Posted 25 August, 2011 Share Posted 25 August, 2011 Be interested in seeing the champ table from this time last season? Anyone know where that could be found? Table on 28.08.2010 Full Home Away P W D L F A W D L F A W D L F A GD Pt 1 Queens Park Rangers 4 3 1 0 11 2 2 0 0 6 0 1 1 0 5 2 +9 10 2 Cardiff City 4 3 1 0 9 2 1 1 0 5 1 2 0 0 4 1 +7 10 3 Ipswich Town 4 3 1 0 8 3 1 1 0 3 1 2 0 0 5 2 +5 10 4 Millwall 4 3 0 1 11 4 2 0 0 7 1 1 0 1 4 3 +7 9 5 Burnley 4 2 1 1 5 2 2 0 0 4 0 0 1 1 1 2 +3 7 6 Leeds United 4 2 1 1 6 4 1 0 1 4 3 1 1 0 2 1 +2 7 6 Norwich City 4 2 1 1 6 4 1 0 1 4 3 1 1 0 2 1 +2 7 8 Coventry City 4 2 1 1 7 6 2 0 0 4 1 0 1 1 3 5 +1 7 9 Doncaster Rovers 4 2 1 1 6 6 1 1 0 4 2 1 0 1 2 4 0 7 10 Barnsley 4 2 1 1 6 7 2 0 0 3 0 0 1 1 3 7 -1 7 11 S****horpe United 4 2 0 2 5 4 1 0 1 3 1 1 0 1 2 3 +1 6 11 Swansea City 4 2 0 2 5 4 2 0 0 5 0 0 0 2 0 4 +1 6 13 Reading 4 1 2 1 5 5 0 1 1 2 3 1 1 0 3 2 0 5 13 Watford 4 1 2 1 5 5 0 1 1 2 3 1 1 0 3 2 0 5 15 Derby County 4 1 1 2 6 7 0 1 1 3 4 1 0 1 3 3 -1 4 16 Middlesbrough 4 1 1 2 2 5 1 0 1 2 3 0 1 1 0 2 -3 4 16 Sheffield United 4 1 1 2 2 5 1 0 1 1 3 0 1 1 1 2 -3 4 18 Hull City 4 1 1 2 3 7 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 2 1 7 -4 4 19 Nottingham Forest 4 0 3 1 3 4 0 2 0 2 2 0 1 1 1 2 -1 3 20 Crystal Palace 4 1 0 3 4 8 1 0 1 4 4 0 0 2 0 4 -4 3 21 Preston North End 4 1 0 3 1 7 1 0 1 1 2 0 0 2 0 5 -6 3 22 Bristol City 4 0 2 2 4 9 0 1 1 3 6 0 1 1 1 3 -5 2 23 Leicester City 4 0 1 3 3 8 0 1 1 1 2 0 0 2 2 6 -5 1 24 Portsmouth 4 0 1 3 1 6 0 1 1 1 3 0 0 2 0 3 -5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
(not THE) Kevin Moore Posted 25 August, 2011 Share Posted 25 August, 2011 Table on 28.08.2010 Full Home Away P W D L F A W D L F A W D L F A GD Pt 1 Queens Park Rangers 4 3 1 0 11 2 2 0 0 6 0 1 1 0 5 2 +9 10 2 Cardiff City 4 3 1 0 9 2 1 1 0 5 1 2 0 0 4 1 +7 10 3 Ipswich Town 4 3 1 0 8 3 1 1 0 3 1 2 0 0 5 2 +5 10 4 Millwall 4 3 0 1 11 4 2 0 0 7 1 1 0 1 4 3 +7 9 5 Burnley 4 2 1 1 5 2 2 0 0 4 0 0 1 1 1 2 +3 7 6 Leeds United 4 2 1 1 6 4 1 0 1 4 3 1 1 0 2 1 +2 7 6 Norwich City 4 2 1 1 6 4 1 0 1 4 3 1 1 0 2 1 +2 7 8 Coventry City 4 2 1 1 7 6 2 0 0 4 1 0 1 1 3 5 +1 7 9 Doncaster Rovers 4 2 1 1 6 6 1 1 0 4 2 1 0 1 2 4 0 7 10 Barnsley 4 2 1 1 6 7 2 0 0 3 0 0 1 1 3 7 -1 7 11 S****horpe United 4 2 0 2 5 4 1 0 1 3 1 1 0 1 2 3 +1 6 11 Swansea City 4 2 0 2 5 4 2 0 0 5 0 0 0 2 0 4 +1 6 13 Reading 4 1 2 1 5 5 0 1 1 2 3 1 1 0 3 2 0 5 13 Watford 4 1 2 1 5 5 0 1 1 2 3 1 1 0 3 2 0 5 15 Derby County 4 1 1 2 6 7 0 1 1 3 4 1 0 1 3 3 -1 4 16 Middlesbrough 4 1 1 2 2 5 1 0 1 2 3 0 1 1 0 2 -3 4 16 Sheffield United 4 1 1 2 2 5 1 0 1 1 3 0 1 1 1 2 -3 4 18 Hull City 4 1 1 2 3 7 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 2 1 7 -4 4 19 Nottingham Forest 4 0 3 1 3 4 0 2 0 2 2 0 1 1 1 2 -1 3 20 Crystal Palace 4 1 0 3 4 8 1 0 1 4 4 0 0 2 0 4 -4 3 21 Preston North End 4 1 0 3 1 7 1 0 1 1 2 0 0 2 0 5 -6 3 22 Bristol City 4 0 2 2 4 9 0 1 1 3 6 0 1 1 1 3 -5 2 23 Leicester City 4 0 1 3 3 8 0 1 1 1 2 0 0 2 2 6 -5 1 24 Portsmouth 4 0 1 3 1 6 0 1 1 1 3 0 0 2 0 3 -5 1 Interesting, no-one had a 100% record.... and QPR won the league.... therefore we will win the league by a bigger total than QPR.... F.A.C.Tus maximus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junction 9 Posted 25 August, 2011 Share Posted 25 August, 2011 I would have waited until April before posting this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Posted 25 August, 2011 Share Posted 25 August, 2011 Pompey doing better this year then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colinjb Posted 25 August, 2011 Share Posted 25 August, 2011 We are 4 games in! Yeah, this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norwaysaint Posted 25 August, 2011 Share Posted 25 August, 2011 I agree with this, 12 points should be more than enough to get us promoted this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marsdinho Posted 25 August, 2011 Share Posted 25 August, 2011 Did an accumulator on Sat, 6 draws and 1 away win, bet £1. They all came in (thanks to a 94th min goal from Boateng) and I won £840 !!! Wont see a penny of it though as its all going in to the "moving house fund" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scott_saints Posted 25 August, 2011 Share Posted 25 August, 2011 How is it slightly off? I agree with it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aardvark Posted 25 August, 2011 Share Posted 25 August, 2011 Interesting to see how the odds for promotion have tightened since the season started - averaging about 5 to 1 on the opening day, and now ranging between 2 to 1 and 6 to 4. http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/promotion/bet-history/southampton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wes Tender Posted 25 August, 2011 Share Posted 25 August, 2011 It is all very wll bookies providing statistics as a guide to how they feel various teams might fare in the new season, but it is a total nonsense printing conclusions as being somehow factual. Promotion should not be considered by Southampton Southampton are prominent in the Championship betting to win the title this season, but based on the results of the teams to have finished second in League One in their previous season, back-to-back promotions are definitely out of the question. No doubt they might have said the exact same thing about Norwich's chances of successive promotions last year too. I am reminded of the statistical evidence at the other end of the table, the relegation zone, where if my memory is correct, we were the first team to avoid relegation from the Premiership having been bottom of the league at Christmas some seasons ago. Just because something has never happened before, does not mean it is impossible and things happen every year that have never been achieved previously. As mentioned by others, we have already broken several historical club records recently and obviously the bookies had not factored this in to their calculations. So in hindsight their predictions begin to look silly, although of course there is plenty of time for them to turn out correct by the end of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VectisSaint Posted 25 August, 2011 Share Posted 25 August, 2011 Never since the introduction of the Premier League has a team been promoted in successive seasons after finishing second in League One, let only finished second in the third tier and then gone on to win the Championship in the following season. Of the last 17 teams to have claimed second spot in League One, only four have gone on to experience the Premier League at any time after their promotion. Unfortunately blind stats hide the interesting background. Not all teams promoted from League 1 in the last 17 years are equal. A small number, including us, Norwich and Leeds, probably couple of others, are long term Div1/Prem Lge clubs that fell on hard/bad times and are rebuidling based on a stronger infrastructure than others. Not saying we will be promoted this year, but more likely than some other promoted from L1 who were maybe relatively small clubs over-achieving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moonraker Posted 25 August, 2011 Share Posted 25 August, 2011 The assessment has nothing to do with real football, it is straightforward statistical analysis. It does not take any account of individual club factors. How many of the clubs previously finishing 2nd in L1 have played (29 years) in the Premiership, how many of them had a real premiership set up in terms of Stadium, Training Facilities, support, academy and not least financial backing. The start we have had has been fantastic and provides a great platform for the rest of the season, however the majority of us are sensible enough to recognise that this is all it is, automatic promotion is possible but there is a long long way to go, hopefully we will be the exception to the bookies statistical rule! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Le Taxi Posted 25 August, 2011 Author Share Posted 25 August, 2011 Four games in and four straight (emphatic!) wins is in my opinion a good indicator of things to come, in spite of what some depressed sarcastic numpties think, my glass is half full thank you, onwards and upwards! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Le Taxi Posted 25 August, 2011 Author Share Posted 25 August, 2011 How is it slightly off? I agree with it... Promotion should not be considered by Southampton You agree with this? am i missing something? are you depressed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Le Taxi Posted 25 August, 2011 Author Share Posted 25 August, 2011 How is it slightly off? I agree with it... back-to-back promotions are definitely out of the question. You agree with this? why do you go to football? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Le Taxi Posted 25 August, 2011 Author Share Posted 25 August, 2011 I agree with this, 12 points should be more than enough to get us promoted this season. Does your sarcasm make you feel good about yourself? do you consider yourself witty? all it does is depress me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scott_saints Posted 25 August, 2011 Share Posted 25 August, 2011 back-to-back promotions are definitely out of the question. You agree with this? why do you go to football? I didn't say it is definitely out of the question did I? The main bit about ourances is "Therefore, Southampton’s chances of promotion to the Premier League look slim, although they should also have no problem consolidating their spot in the Championship". To say it's "way off the mark" is ridiculous. Yes, we may get promoted but it's unlikely. Getting carried away after 4 games is a bit silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 25 August, 2011 Share Posted 25 August, 2011 Hard to understand why they keep referring to what previous clubs that came second in League One did once they were in the Championship. How is that relevant? You should take each team on its own merits, not look at completely different teams, with different budgets, resources, management and players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Le Taxi Posted 25 August, 2011 Author Share Posted 25 August, 2011 I didn't say it is definitely out of the question did I? The main bit about ourances is "Therefore, Southampton’s chances of promotion to the Premier League look slim, although they should also have no problem consolidating their spot in the Championship". To say it's "way off the mark" is ridiculous. Yes, we may get promoted but it's unlikely. Getting carried away after 4 games is a bit silly. No Ladbrokes did and you agreed, come on keep up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legod Third Coming Posted 25 August, 2011 Share Posted 25 August, 2011 I'm glad Ladbrokes fecked up their assessment. I'm sat on a tasty 14/1 to win the league (each way 1,2,3). Take a look at the price now. I could lay us today and make a profit. But actuallly, I think we WILL win the league. Saturday will tell us how strong the challenge is really. West Ham are poor at home - players are scared of playing there. Brighton are the biggest threat because like us THEY HAVE MONEY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dronskisaint Posted 25 August, 2011 Share Posted 25 August, 2011 I don't give a sh*t what bookies may say - what odds would they have given on our current wins record, start, away wins etc? Small enough to keep them comfortable I suspect. Not saying that we are likely or odds on to do it but if I didn't think there was a possibility it would certainly diminish my enjoyment and I'd end up a miserable, pessimistic doom spreader...fluck 'em! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithd Posted 25 August, 2011 Share Posted 25 August, 2011 Can we have a chat about this after christmas? See where we are then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinR Posted 25 August, 2011 Share Posted 25 August, 2011 I'm glad Ladbrokes fecked up their assessment. I'm sat on a tasty 14/1 to win the league (each way 1,2,3). Take a look at the price now. I could lay us today and make a profit. But actuallly, I think we WILL win the league. Saturday will tell us how strong the challenge is really. West Ham are poor at home - players are scared of playing there. Brighton are the biggest threat because like us THEY HAVE MONEY![/QUOTE] I'm not sure they have much money. Gus said at the end of last season, that their budget for this season was fairly low compared to the bigger championship teams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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