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Lallana's value


farawaysaint
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I know, I know he's priceless guys, trust me on that :lol: But, in all seriousness, the last couple of weeks with his performances against Leeds and Ipswich in particular I've seen some frankly stupid comments thrown around such as "If Chambo is worth 15, then Adam must be worth 25 million." Bearing in mind he's 23 and not 19 I'd like to hear what you guys think Adam is actually worth as a player, (not his value to the team, again I think he should never be sold,) in the market. I'm sure I'll get slated for this, but my guess is 8-10 mill, let's hear what you Saintsweb geniuses think :D

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The market value is dictated by what he is worth to the team, and how much someone is willing to pay, and whether we need/want to sell him. His value to the team IS his worth as a player, but to the team who has him/want him.

 

Sorry for the boring answer, but it's almost impossible IMO to answer this based on his individual ability. On that basis I think it would have to be stupid money... no less than about £15m for him, because of his value to us and the fact we don't have to sell, and he doesn't want to leave.

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He's English, so multiply all suggestions by at least 3... I'd say it would take circa £25m to get us to part with him at the moment, (and yes that is based on the Chamberlain figure plus our desire to sell) but if we did that it might cost us twice that in lost Prem tv money, so selling would be a false economy.

 

I've also noted that this season is the first one for calculations under UEFA Fair Play rules, but the allowable losses are much higher than they will be by 2013 - which explains why we're spending so much money signing Prem-possible players to longer contracts now. That and not being in any danger of qualifying for Europe this season... (Carling Cup aside ;)).

Edited by The9
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The market value is dictated by what he is worth to the team, and how much someone is willing to pay, and whether we need/want to sell him. His value to the team IS his worth as a player, but to the team who has him/want him.

 

Sorry for the boring answer, but it's almost impossible IMO to answer this based on his individual ability. On that basis I think it would have to be stupid money... no less than about £15m for him, because of his value to us and the fact we don't have to sell, and he doesn't want to leave.

 

It may be a predictable answer but it's entirely the correct one. It's hard to justify that any player is "worth" the vast sums of money that they are going for, yet transfer fees continue to go up and up purely because of the factors outlined above.

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This is a big year for Lallana. Whilst he was weaving his magic in league one, there was one public or confirmed show of interest from Wolves (I think 1.5 was the figure bandied around) and the papers reported that Everton and a couple of other clubs were also interested.

 

When he signed a new contract, I expect he was exceptionally well rewarded.

 

With the money in the prem, he was worth a 1.5 gamble. As he continues to perform (Excell) in the Championship that gamble / risk comes down and his price rockets up.

 

His form will not have gone unoticed, by any of the prem boys (Including the big boys) and if he maintains his form (Consistency has always been one of his strengths) it won't be long before they come knocking, with fairly chunky money.

 

If he can impact Premiership games, in the same way he has impacted League one and Championship games, then you are talking mega bucks and international caps

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I have to say I thought based on pre-season against West Brom (reserves) that Lallana would struggle to cope with the pace needed in the Championship. Instead of that he seems to be taking advantage of it by selling more dummies to the players who are running more quickly to close him down, giving himself the time to get past them as they go zooming past. Three Cruyff turns in the build up to Connolly's goal for starters.

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I would suggest Premiership wages

 

But what is "Premiership" wages, exactly? It's certainly not the £170,000 a week Adebayor is on.

 

I honestly don't think he's on more than £10,000 a week. Adam loves the club, loves the area, and I can't see him ever leaving unless our hand was forced.

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But what is "Premiership" wages, exactly? It's certainly not the £170,000 a week Adebayor is on.

 

I honestly don't think he's on more than £10,000 a week. Adam loves the club, loves the area, and I can't see him ever leaving unless our hand was forced.

 

I think that's a little naive. Fortunately we seem to be in a position to reward players appropriately.

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I think a fair value for him at the moment would be around £8m (that doesn't make him an inferior player to AOC, I just think that's more realistic to the crazy money Arsenal paid). Having said that he isn't for sale anyway and I doubt we would even contemplate bids less than £15m - and rightly so.

 

I hope he stays with us and keeps developing with the rest of the team. He has a little way to go yet but he has the ability to be capped by England, there's no two ways about that.

 

He's obviously happy to be at the club at the moment and with any luck that will remain the case for a long time yet.

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But what is "Premiership" wages, exactly? It's certainly not the £170,000 a week Adebayor is on.

 

I honestly don't think he's on more than £10,000 a week. Adam loves the club, loves the area, and I can't see him ever leaving unless our hand was forced.

 

There are others on this board that will have a better idea than me, but there is no chance he'd sign a 5 year deal for 10k a week. If I had to bet on it, it would £25k a week.

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I think that's a little naive. Fortunately we seem to be in a position to reward players appropriately.

 

We are in a position to reward players, correct - however, Cortese wants a sustainable club - hence the heavy investment in the academy. I don't think he's paying any of our players "silly" wages, and I don't think he ever will (Billy Sharp, anyone?).

 

Besides, £10k a week is hardly slave labour now, is it?

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There are others on this board that will have a better idea than me, but there is no chance he'd sign a 5 year deal for 10k a week.

 

I'd be shocked if that didn't have a large increase upon reaching the Premier League. Plus, contracts can be torn up, and replaced with even bigger contracts :)

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This what I think - and he is worth every penny

 

Agreed. It's not just his performances, him actually signing was a real turning point last season. Actually it was real highlight. I think I was happier when I read the news than after a Saints win. I dare say his signing has encouraged the likes of Morgan to sign a new deal to. Has that been announced officially yet BTW?

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I wouldnt be surprised if everyone has promotion clauses. Also expect Lallana to be our highest paid player....probably about 25k.

 

I'd be absolutely shocked if he was on £25k a week, especially so given the recent comments from Adkins about "not breaking the wage structure".

 

We've got to be realistic, we're a championship club. Championship clubs can't afford to pay silly wages, especially so with the new financial fair play rules in place.

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We are in a position to reward players, correct - however, Cortese wants a sustainable club - hence the heavy investment in the academy. I don't think he's paying any of our players "silly" wages, and I don't think he ever will (Billy Sharp, anyone?).

 

Besides, £10k a week is hardly slave labour now, is it?

 

Ah, so you're one of those that believes that.

 

My opinion is that Cortese wants the fans to believe we are a sustainable club so he can charge extra for things and raise funds from stuff like the ticket tax and car parking without disaffecting too many people, but the practicalities of the situation are that until we get into the Premier League there are no possible revenue streams which will raise the amount of money we need to be able to pay the wages of the players that will get us there, and there is no possible way we are covering our wage costs on crowds of 25,000.

 

So there is significant investment in the "invisible to fans" stuff like player wages, which is almost certainly coming out of the Markus Pot. This is in order to try and get us into the Premier League, where the tv money alone comfortably outstrips the income from fans, and might possibly allow the club at that point to become sustainable - if that's actually what the goal is - which admittedly it might be due to UEFA Fair Play. As it is, the plan only sees us established in the Prem, and what happens then no-one knows - it might be Cortese's remit to sell, or it might have been agreed to make us the Greatest Club in Footballing History for all we know.

 

As for "£10k a week isn't slave labour", ask Cristiano Ronaldo what he thinks. :)

Edited by The9
Edited a very long sentence with a lot of commas into something more succinct.
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I only think thats the case because I think we're in a position to offer to him. A lot of people were speculating him leaving last January, but he signed instead. I wasn't expecting him to stay in L1 with us. I don't think he'll leave, but lets not be completely naive about it. I'm sure there are a lot of players in this league who are on far far more. For example - Kevin Nolan is on 60k/week

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Ah, so you're one of those that believes that.

 

My opinion is that Cortese wants the fans to believe we are a sustainable club so he can charge extra for things and raise funds from stuff like the ticket tax and car parking without disaffecting too many people, but the practicalities of the situation are that until we get into the Premier League there are no possible revenue streams which will raise the amount of money we need to be able to pay the wages of the players that will get us there, and there is no possible way we are covering our wage costs on crowds of 25,000.

 

So there is significant investment in the "invisible to fans" stuff like player wages, which is almost certainly coming out of the Markus Pot, in order to try and get us into the Premier League, where the tv money alone comfortably outstrips the income from fans, and might possibly allow the club at that point to become sustainable - if that's actually what the goal is - which admittedly it might be due to UEFA Fair Play. As it is, the plan only sees us established in the Prem, and what happens then no-one knows - it might be Cortese's remit to sell, or it might have been agreed to make us the Greatest Club in Footballing History for all we know.

 

As for "£10k a week isn't slave labour", ask Cristiano Ronaldo what he thinks. :)

 

Ha, indeed. Good post, and interesting opinion, by the way.

 

I do believe he wants a sustainable club, but we are of course spending now to achieve that. Of course, reaching the "promised land" is the best way of getting to "sustainability", but as you rightly point out, UEFA's financial fair play rules will limit what you're able to do.

 

Cortese comes from a business background, he's not just going to throw money around.

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I only think thats the case because I think we're in a position to offer to him. A lot of people were speculating him leaving last January, but he signed instead. I wasn't expecting him to stay in L1 with us. I don't think he'll leave, but lets not be completely naive about it. I'm sure there are a lot of players in this league who are on far far more. For example - Kevin Nolan is on 60k/week

 

Nope, you're absolutely right, there are plenty of players in this league that'll be on crazy wages. Half the West Ham team is of course a good example.

 

Nolan is a proven Premiership player, and West Ham are a club laden with debt. Gold and Sullivan look as though they're chucking money at it this season and gambling on returning to the Premiership at the first attempt. They should do, but if they don't, they're potentially screwed (even with taking parachute payments into account).

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In the long run, everything has to be sustainable else it will cease to exist. There was no physical way to make the club sustainable overnight as the income isn't there in the lower leagues to allow the significant transfer fees and wages that are required to push on up the leagues.

 

However I fully expect Cortese to have a long term transition in mind of how he is making the club financially sustainable, and the wage structure will be a part of that. Adkins has also mentioned how they have a wage structure here which I think is entirely appropriate with his 'all together as one' culture.

 

So, are we sustainable right now? Probably not, we'll be relying on investment. But it's all with a view to making things more sustainable in the long run. It has to be. Any other way is virtual suicide.

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the whole loyalty thing is very unfair on players who need to make as much money as they can, while they can.... it is there job after all...

i think Adam is brilliant and well worth whatever we are paying him - however if a prem club comes in and offers to triple or quad it, it is hardly fair to stand in his way if we are not able to match it

our reward will be the large fee we will demand - imho £25m+ - why not? if one of the big teams is doing badly and sees him as a quick fix come Jan?

 

we all want him to stay and play in the prem next year with Saints - but if someone comes in with stupid money for both him and us, then its bye bye, good luck and thanks - tbh this could happen even when we're in the prem....

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In the long run, everything has to be sustainable else it will cease to exist. There was no physical way to make the club sustainable overnight as the income isn't there in the lower leagues to allow the significant transfer fees and wages that are required to push on up the leagues.

 

However I fully expect Cortese to have a long term transition in mind of how he is making the club financially sustainable, and the wage structure will be a part of that. Adkins has also mentioned how they have a wage structure here which I think is entirely appropriate with his 'all together as one' culture.

 

So, are we sustainable right now? Probably not, we'll be relying on investment. But it's all with a view to making things more sustainable in the long run. It has to be. Any other way is virtual suicide.

 

My cynical head says unsustainability will go a long way with £2.5bn to waste, but I doubt that's the plan.

 

I agree that we're probably in investment deficit right now, and it seems obvious that only the Prem will pay the club the money to make that feasible in the longer term - I wonder if we have some global marketing experts lined up in the event of promotion, seeing as you can only currently buy the kit in one shop outside Southampton ?

 

However, if nothing else the UEFA Fair Play rules mean we'll have to get our losses below £80m p/a by 2013 (or something similar, I read it yesterday and my recall may be flawed) or we won't be able to play in the Champions' League. :D.

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the whole loyalty thing is very unfair on players who need to make as much money as they can, while they can.... it is there job after all...

i think Adam is brilliant and well worth whatever we are paying him - however if a prem club comes in and offers to triple or quad it, it is hardly fair to stand in his way if we are not able to match itour reward will be the large fee we will demand - imho £25m+ - why not? if one of the big teams is doing badly and sees him as a quick fix come Jan?

 

we all want him to stay and play in the prem next year with Saints - but if someone comes in with stupid money for both him and us, then its bye bye, good luck and thanks - tbh this could happen even when we're in the prem....

 

I think that's the crux of it, and all signs point to the goal being that we CAN match it, and as the stated intent is for a "Southampton Way" fielding Saints-raised players, keeping Lallana has to be essential to that. On the bright side, the long deal he already has, and the new deals offered to various others, are in line with that policy.

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It would be very difficult for a club to agree a fee with us for Adam. He's on a four year contract so we have absolutely no reason to sell from a contract expiry perspective. He may very well be the difference between us getting promotion to the PL and not, so his value to us in that regard could very well be the TV revenues we'd generate from getting to the PL - in the region of £30-40 million. No club, not even Man City, would pay that much for him. I suspect we'll get a number of 'enquiries' for him in January that will be dealt with in a similar manner to Liverpools approach for AOC last January...

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I think one of the things that people are forgetting with regard to his wages, was his signing on fee.

 

I don't think his wages will be anything like 25k per week, but I (Pure guesswork) his personal signing on fee was somewhere between 1 and 2 million quid

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Base value: £15m

Added value for being English: +40% = £21m

Added value for too Prem clubs having silly money: £15% = £24.15m

Cortese's negotiation vlue: +20% = about £29m

 

Very realistic.......best estimate so far......How on earth Pearce could leave him out of the under 21 squad I have no idea but then again Pearce isn't overly bright in all honesty......

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I think I would cry if we sold Lallana. We need to break the bank to keep him if his head is ever turned. I would be willing to bet a fair amount that he will play for England one day.

 

I said in another thread, he has the potential to be this generations legend. This generations Matt Le Tiss. Especially if we get to the prem with him and he can cut it up there.

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Ok, so suppose Man Utd come in with a £17 million pound bid (same amount they paid for Ashley Young) tomorrow for Lallana, whilst he's very much our best player, wouldn't it be bonkers to turn that kind of money down??

Edited by Big_Bald_Si
shocking grammar
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Ok, so suppose Man Utd come in with a £17 million pound bid (same amount they paid for Ashley Young) tomorrow for Lallana, whilst he's very much our best player, wouldn't it be bonkers to turn that kind of money down??

 

Whilst the stats did improve and almost certainly would again with the way Adkins has the team playing at the moment, butyou need to look at our win ratio when Lallana was out injured...... they are horrible and very scary...... And based on those, we would be bonkers to accept 17 million.

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