Press Predictions for 2011/12

[Professor]

The only press prediction for the season outcome in the Championship, that I've seen so far is in The Times (Mon 1Aug). True to my impression that the press are obsessed with 'celebrity' managers The Times has Allardyce, Ericsson and McClaren as their top 3. The paper predicts Saints finishing as low as 16th. I might well file that prediction away to send back to them next May. If all three 'golden boys' miss out on promotion, even better.

 

Anyone seen any other press predictions and what do you think about them?

[John B]

Here is another which seems reasonable

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2011/jul/31/championship-predictions-new-season

[Viking Warrior]

skateville are dark horses, with stability off the pitch and a talented, experienced manager in Steve Cotterill

 

Thats not a reasonable comment of the guardian to make

[The9]

Sunday Express I had a flick through in the pub yesterday had something like Saints 12th, Brighton 10th and Skate Cheats FC 9th. I nearly spat out my beer.

[rooney]

Saints predicted at 17th in Sunday Telegraph. Whilst attacking force was commented upon, fragility of defence at times, was mentioned as likely to be punished in this league.

[Miltonaggro]

The only press prediction for the season outcome in the Championship, that I've seen so far is in The Times (Mon 1Aug). True to my impression that the press are obsessed with 'celebrity' managers The Times has Allardyce, Ericsson and McClaren as their top 3. The paper predicts Saints finishing as low as 16th. I might well file that prediction away to send back to them next May. If all three 'golden boys' miss out on promotion, even better.

 

Anyone seen any other press predictions and what do you think about them?

 

Agreed, I hope that Adkins pins this to the wall of the dressing room. There seems to be an incredible lack of analysis in these reports, and this is very much an annual 'trotting out' exercise for many London hacks (football experts...) - I wonder where they had Norwich placed last year? The Guardian report John B posted is indeed more reasonable, althought I would not tend to agree with the notion that our blue neighbours are out of the woods and stable just yet or that Birmingham will not be a basket case! I have a gut feeling that a couple of big time Charlie managers might struggle this season as painting by numbers always looks easier than it is in practice...

[bowers-sfc]

I think FourFourTwo had us down for like 10th. brighton 12th and pompey 15th

[Professor]

Don Goodman, in The Guardian hasn't taken any risks on his top end predictions. He's got 13 promotion challengers. Of the rest, he's got 6 predictions for mid-table and only at the bottom has he's limited himself, by having just 5 relegation candidates. I can imagine next May he'll be claiming how well he did by predicting the 3 promoted clubs, without mentioning that he got another 10 wrong!

[The9]

Saints predicted at 17th in Sunday Telegraph. Whilst attacking force was commented upon, fragility of defence at times, was mentioned as likely to be punished in this league.

 

I think I read that too - did they really go for 17th ? Their Championship reporter wants shooting. "Fragility of defence at times" describes plenty of clubs which aren't Saints last season.

[sussexsaint]

Here is another which seems reasonable

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2011/jul/31/championship-predictions-new-season

 

Feels like he knocked that whole article out in about 10 minutes

[corky morris]

I wonder where they all put Norwich last year???

[The9]

Don Goodman, in The Guardian hasn't taken any risks on his top end predictions. He's got 13 promotion challengers. Of the rest, he's got 6 predictions for mid-table and only at the bottom has he's limited himself, by having just 5 relegation candidates. I can imagine next May he'll be claiming how well he did by predicting the 3 promoted clubs, without mentioning that he got another 10 wrong!

 

That is kind of how the Championship table is viewed though, everyone down to about 15th is either "battling to win the League" "chasing automatic promotion" or "pushing for the Playoffs", only a few of the fans of the 15th placed team tend to notice they're 6 points ahead of 22nd as well as around 10 points off 6th.

[itchen_dan]

What West Ham, Birmingham and Leicester all need to realise is that they are now the 'big boys' in this division and will face the same issues as what we faced last season. Teams will want to beat them. Teams will raise their games considerably to make a name for themselves and take a scalp by beating one of the 'big boys'.

 

Look at us last season. Massive favourites and biggest for a few years to win the division but pressure gets to teams and expectation builds and causes nerves. 'Smaller' teams will go to the bigger teams and put men behind the ball, be hard to break down etc.

 

As many others have said, we are much more on an even footing this year and are amongst 7/8 clubs pushing for playoffs. We're no longer the big boys and teams will come to us looking to win rather than hoping for a point. This is when we are at our best when teams come here to attack and win.

[Saint_John]

The Sports Echo had some in with their usual Anti-Saints comments and reasoning.

Adam Leitch said 15th (p 8 ).

Gordon Simpson said 13th (p 19).

Dan said "mid-table should be a minimum aim" (p 16 ).

 

imo in general they all seemed to "big up other teams squads" and "focus on anything MINOR that was negative and ignore ALL the MAJOR positives at Saints", as I said usual anti-Saints from the Echo.

[Professor]

The Telegraph hack is following in the traditions of the British press, by writing something with no basis in fact. There is no evidence of Saints having a fragile defence since no other L1 or Championship side conceded fewer goals last season than Southampton. Saints had 38 goals in the GA column, 2 better than Brighton in L1 and matched only by QPR in the NpC. That was 20 goals better than Norwich who were on 58 GA.

[Alain Perrin]

I think anyone who is touting Saints (or Brighton for that matter) for promotion is probably misguided. What happened last year was unusual - back to back promotion challenges aren't that common and I think the Championship is stronger this year..

 

I also agree that our defense has issues with pace (something we'll see more of in the Championship) and whilst 'fragile' might be a bit harsh, there were key games where we got exposed (Peterborough away as the example that journos probably saw and took note from).

 

Midtable for me. Bucking the usual slow start, Saints will start strongly (riding on the confidence of promotion) and then fade in October, flirt with the playoffs in February before consolidating in midtable obscurity.

[Fowllyd]

The only press prediction for the season outcome in the Championship, that I've seen so far is in The Times (Mon 1Aug). True to my impression that the press are obsessed with 'celebrity' managers The Times has Allardyce, Ericsson and McClaren as their top 3. The paper predicts Saints finishing as low as 16th. I might well file that prediction away to send back to them next May. If all three 'golden boys' miss out on promotion, even better.

 

Anyone seen any other press predictions and what do you think about them?

 

I think you've got the press in general pretty much nailed there - they always tip the big name managers to succeed. Another point is that the media as a whole are so obsessed with the Premier League that the other three leagues get glossed over. So, if you're in the Championship and you have a well-known manager you'll get lots of tips for success.

 

As other predictions quoted on here show, there's been precious little research done into the likely qualities of most teams. The Sunday Telegraph bit about our 'fragility of defence' shows that as clearly as you could wish.

[Professor]

I think anyone who is touting Saints (or Brighton for that matter) for promotion is probably misguided. What happened last year was unusual - back to back promotion challenges aren't that common and I think the Championship is stronger this year..

 

I also agree that our defense has issues with pace (something we'll see more of in the Championship) and whilst 'fragile' might be a bit harsh, there were key games where we got exposed (Peterborough away as the example that journos probably saw and took note from).

 

Midtable for me. Bucking the usual slow start, Saints will start strongly (riding on the confidence of promotion) and then fade in October, flirt with the playoffs in February before consolidating in midtable obscurity.

Thanks Alain! Thats set the season out so clearly its saved me spending a lot of money on gate money! I'm still going to the Leeds game though.

[Window Cleaner]

The Telegraph hack is following in the traditions of the British press, by writing something with no basis in fact. There is no evidence of Saints having a fragile defence since no other L1 or Championship side conceded fewer goals last season than Southampton. Saints had 38 goals in the GA column, 2 better than Brighton in L1 and matched only by QPR in the NpC. That was 20 goals better than Norwich who were on 58 GA.

 

does this not contradict the 'central defender wanted apply at SMS" thread that you started only the other day?

You can't have it both ways, either we desperately need a decent CB or we don't have any apparent defensive weakness.

I personally think that our CD as it stands will be totally inadequate for the Championship but it's just my opinion.Seems it is that of several sporting journalists as well.

[corky morris]

I personally think that our CD as it stands will be totally inadequate for the Championship but it's just my opinion.Seems it is that of several sporting journalists as well.

 

I have some sympathy with that. CMS did us last year with pace, but I dont think that there are lots of guys with that pace AND the scoring touch he was in last season. FWIW - Top 10 would be great with a sniff of a play-off place.

[Dalek2003]

The only press prediction for the season outcome in the Championship, that I've seen so far is in The Times (Mon 1Aug). True to my impression that the press are obsessed with 'celebrity' managers The Times has Allardyce, Ericsson and McClaren as their top 3. The paper predicts Saints finishing as low as 16th. I might well file that prediction away to send back to them next May. If all three 'golden boys' miss out on promotion, even better.

 

Anyone seen any other press predictions and what do you think about them?

 

That prediction is about right, although i think it may be about 18th.

[Dalek2003]

Saints predicted at 17th in Sunday Telegraph. Whilst attacking force was commented upon, fragility of defence at times, was mentioned as likely to be punished in this league.

 

Again, spot on with my own predictions. We have failed to make significant signings to strengthen. This lack of decisiveness in early summer could prove to cost us dearly. Although i have been lambasted throughout the summer i stand by my comments.

[NickG]

Again, spot on with my own predictions. We have failed to make significant signings to strengthen. This lack of decisiveness in early summer could prove to cost us dearly. Although i have been lambasted throughout the summer i stand by my comments.

 

if that is what you genuinely believe then you are right to stand by your comments. I hope and believe you are very wrong but we will see over the coming 10 months.

[Window Cleaner]

I personally think that our CD as it stands will be totally inadequate for the Championship but it's just my opinion.Seems it is that of several sporting journalists as well.

 

I have some sympathy with that. CMS did us last year with pace, but I dont think that there are lots of guys with that pace AND the scoring touch he was in last season. FWIW - Top 10 would be great with a sniff of a play-off place.

 

Nah but you only have to analyse the highlights of the 2 goals by West Brom, Seaborne wasn't where he should have been on either occasion, if he'd have been adequate for the first goal the cross wouldn't have come in, true Bart shouldn't have let is go though.

Second goal you can clearly see Fonte bolliking Seaborne for his laxism.How some find him adequate I just can't see. A CB like a GK has to be perfect for 90+ minutes, one slip is all that some of the hotshots we'll soon be facing need.

[The9]

Again, spot on with my own predictions. We have failed to make significant signings to strengthen. This lack of decisiveness in early summer could prove to cost us dearly. Although i have been lambasted throughout the summer i stand by my comments.

 

This is the kind of stuff that should get threads stickied.

 

I think we should add a "better" central defender but I still can't see us finishing in the bottom half with what we've got. And what are the (amazing) De Ridder and proven Prem/Championship quality Jack Cork if not significant and strengthening ? Add to that we haven't lost Chamberlain (yet) or anyone else who featured significantly last season, and the only real concerns are Jaidi and Connolly's injury likelihood (and slow recoveries) and Barnard's court case.

Edited 1 August, 2011 by The9

[saintrich]

Sunday Sport (ooo-er) had us down to finish 7th.

[The9]

I have some sympathy with that. CMS did us last year with pace, but I dont think that there are lots of guys with that pace AND the scoring touch he was in last season. FWIW - Top 10 would be great with a sniff of a play-off place.

 

Nah but you only have to analyse the highlights of the 2 goals by West Brom, Seaborne wasn't where he should have been on either occasion, if he'd have been adequate for the first goal the cross wouldn't have come in, true Bart shouldn't have let is go though.

Second goal you can clearly see Fonte bolliking Seaborne for his laxism.How some find him adequate I just can't see. A CB like a GK has to be perfect for 90+ minutes, one slip is all that some of the hotshots we'll soon be facing need.

 

The first West Brom goal is purely Bart's error, and Seaborne would have had to have been in completely the WRONG place for what would happen 95% of the time in order to do anything about it. The second one was Martin's fault for being too central, as the size of the gap from CB to LB only matters when the ball goes straight down the middle. Not Seaborne's fault either, and he may have had a runner to track - not aided by both of them having only just got into those positions due to the substitutions. Prior to that Seaborne had looked assured and comfortable at CB (except the time Miller sprung the offside, when he got back to cover).

[JRM]

a lot of you are so biased in view of saints you are incapable of seeing from the outside many will not see us as contenders for the championship, i mean with the current squad west ham have with allardyce in charge they are obvious favourites, midfield of Parker, Nolan ., matt taylor, is better than ours.

My spurs mate went to Brighton on saturday and was very impressed with them and their support, i can see them being as high as us if not higher again.

[eelpie]

I think FourFourTwo had us down for like 10th. brighton 12th and pompey 15th

 

That's about right.

[swannymere]

I think alot of Saints fans are seeing things through a beer haze whilst wearing rose tinted specs. I personally think we'll do well to finish midtable people seem to have forgotten how hard the championship is.

[St_Tel49]

Sunday Sport (ooo-er) had us down to finish 7th.

Own up. How do you know?

[John B]

Feels like he knocked that whole article out in about 10 minutes

 

It is a newspaper article not a ****ing book

[beermatt1]

Saints predicted at 17th in Sunday Telegraph. Whilst attacking force was commented upon, fragility of defence at times, was mentioned as likely to be punished in this league.

 

Was actually 13th...not that it really matters!

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/competitions/championship/8673102/Championship-2011-12-season-preview.html

[The9]

I think alot of Saints fans are seeing things through a beer haze whilst wearing rose tinted specs. I personally think we'll do well to finish midtable people seem to have forgotten how hard the championship is.

 

I only need to look at the previous sides we've had in the Championship and where they finished and compare them to the current lot to know more or less where we're likely to finish.

 

This lot are worlds better than the 2008/9 kiddie club relegation side, comfortably better than the relegation-dodging team Pearson somehow dragged from the mire the season before, and better than Burley's end of season mob the year after Prem relegation (the one appearance from Gareth Bale aside) who STILL pitched up mid-table after the January-March dip when we'd sold 15 players and barely won a game for months having got shot of the Prem players who'd had us around 6th-8th for a while. Ergo, top half, as we're slightly better than that.

 

Of course, if we lose Fonte, Lallana, Chamberlain, De Ridder and Cork to injuries in August we might have a few things to worry about.

[The9]

Was actually 13th...not that it really matters!

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/competitions/championship/8673102/Championship-2011-12-season-preview.html

 

Yeah, that makes more sense, I think I'd have remembered a 17th place prediction !

[Nexstar]

Don't understand predictions for Pompey finishing 9th. They have 15 first team players ffs and even 1 of those is suspended for the first 3 games.

[Matthew Le God]

The Times thinks 16th...

 

http://yfrog.com/gz54076460j

 

The Independent thinks "Play-offs look within reach"...

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/football-league/the-championship-team-by-team-guide-2329135.html

 

Quite a range between the two!

[The9]

Much of this is going to depend on whether the articles were written 6 weeks ago or yesterday - Birmingham's case has plummetted in the last week for a start.

[edsaint]

Telegraph review does seem to know what it is talking about - not a fragile defence in general but "occasional" defensive lapses will get punished more often. Conclusion "Will beat some superb teams, but also lose to some abject ones." Sounds like Saints. Also they have West Ham at 5th, so aren't simply buying the transfer spending and celeb manager line.

 

In sum, press think our promoted side will finish comfortably mid-table (12th,13th, 16th). Seems reasonable enough to me.

[Kingsbridge Saint]

If you're looking for serious and unbiased predictions the Press dan do one and ignore Saints fans. Have a look at those putting their money where their mouth is. Sporting Index spreads. They have us 5th, Brighton 13th and the DFCSB's 16th.

[Matthew Le God]

In sum, press think our promoted side will finish comfortably mid-table (12th,13th, 16th). Seems reasonable enough to me.

 

Significantly worse than the three promoted League One sides from last season, Norwich 2nd, Leeds 7th and Millwall 8th. None of which have the budget Saints do and Saints outperformed all three when the January 2010 window closed.

[sussexsaint]

DFCSB's

 

I like this and shall use it often

[S-Clarke]

Significantly worse than the three promoted League One sides from last season, Norwich 2nd, Leeds 7th and Millwall 8th. None of which have the budget Saints do and Saints outperformed all three when the January 2010 window closed.

 

Much, much tougher league this year though.

[FMPR]

Been trying to tell him that but he wont accept it

[suewhistle]

skateville are dark horses, with stability off the pitch and a talented, experienced manager in Steve Cotterill

 

Thats not a reasonable comment of the guardian to make

 

Yes, I saw that and laughed out loud. Whatever you may think of Cotterill they don't have anything like stability off the pitch.

[Matthew Le God]

Been trying to tell him that but he wont accept it

 

You still haven't explained to me the huge number of better teams this season compared to last...

 

- Blackpool have lost Vaughan, Adams and will lose Campbell. They haven't replaced them with anything similar or better.

- Birmingham will soon be ripped apart.

- Leeds have lost a number of players and not replaced them with any better.

- Burnley have lost a number of key players like Cork, Mears and Eagles and not replaced them with better.

- Nottingham Forest have lost a number of key players and haven't been spending this summer.

- Middlesborough have run out of parachute money and are selling all the high earners and relying on youth players.

- Reading have lost a number of key players including their captain Mills and look like they will lose Long.

- Cardiff lost a lot of important players, Bellamy, Bothroyd and Burke etc

- Pompey have a squad of 15 players.

 

etc etc...

 

Saints haven't lost anyone and have signed Cork and De Ridder.

 

It is only really the West Ham and Leicester City squads that look to have a real threat about them.

Edited 1 August, 2011 by Matthew Le God

[Mattio]

I still predict 8th, as I seem to do every season!

[saint cozza]

Yesterdays telegraph had the skates most important player to be David Nugent jut goes to show how the football league is neglected compared to the big money in the premier league. Ours was Lambert, however I think our most important player will be Lallana or Fonte.

[MOSaint]

Since the difference in ability between the top 16 or so sides is so small, whether or not a team does well depends more on how good the manager is at getting the best out of what he has. I know that's true in most leagues, but in some other leagues (like the SPL), certain teams have squads that are so much better than the majority that even with a clueless manager they'll still finish near the top. Whereas in the championship good management is the difference between 1st and 15th.

 

If you look at all the squads, most teams have 3 or 4 good players and about 20 average ones (except Pompey since they don't have that many players). It's how these teams are set up tactically and how they are motivated that will decide whether we finish in the mid-table abyss or whether we can put together a good run and make a challenge on Promotion.

 

Only things that would disappoint me is relegation (obviously) and finishing below Pompey and Brighton

 

My main worry is that we'll win the tough matches, then choke in the games we should win and wind up mid table. Still, I don't expect us to really make a push for promotion until next season.

[Nexstar]

Yesterdays telegraph had the skates most important player to be David Nugent jut goes to show how the football league is neglected compared to the big money in the premier league. Ours was Lambert, however I think our most important player will be Lallana or Fonte.

 

Leicester City's David Nugent is a sizable cockup.