Shroppie Posted 27 April, 2011 Share Posted 27 April, 2011 For what it's worth, if you take all remaining games to have equal probabilities of all outcomes (WDL), we have a 74.4856% (approx) chance of getting 2nd. If we beat Brentford, that goes up to 91.358%. If we draw with Brentford, it's 69.1358% and if we lose to Brentford, 61.728%. But of course, Huddersfield's result Saturday can change our chances to anything from 13.58% to 100%. But that's just a bit of fun, because all outcomes aren't equally likely. Are they? Of course, I could allocate a probability of each result for each match and come up with a more statistically sound prediction, but i do have a day job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 27 April, 2011 Share Posted 27 April, 2011 OK being so young (ahem) I don't remember the 60s like you old timers:p Nor can I... but I have a computer with the internet on it which I find useful for checking these things. You should get one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 27 April, 2011 Share Posted 27 April, 2011 For what it's worth, if you take all remaining games to have equal probabilities of all outcomes (WDL), we have a 74.4856% (approx) chance of getting 2nd. If we beat Brentford, that goes up to 91.358%. If we draw with Brentford, it's 69.1358% and if we lose to Brentford, 61.728%. But of course, Huddersfield's result Saturday can change our chances to anything from 13.58% to 100%. But that's just a bit of fun, because all outcomes aren't equally likely. Are they? Of course, I could allocate a probability of each result for each match and come up with a more statistically sound prediction, but i do have a day job. I like that we have a 75% chance of promotion even without considering our current league position or form, or opposition, just based on the fact we have a game more ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 27 April, 2011 Share Posted 27 April, 2011 Have I got this wrong, or is the hudds game brightons last match at the withdean? If so, they arent going to roll over at home even if it meant them shafting us (rolleyes thingy) It is their last match at Withdean, this is not the first time it has been mentioned on here in the last couple of weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cabrone Posted 27 April, 2011 Share Posted 27 April, 2011 I think we'll beat Brentford and Hudders will get a draw at Brighton. Then we'll get (effectively) promoted by drawing at Plymouth. Then it's party time at St Mary's as we (and Hudders) win our last games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bender Posted 27 April, 2011 Share Posted 27 April, 2011 I'm really worried that Hudders will beat Brighton and we only get a draw at Brentford, putting real pressure on us to win at Plymouth. Coz if we then only draw at Plymough, it's playoffs for us. However, I think we will really put everything into the Brentford game which will leave us just needing to beat Walsall, whatever Hudders do at Brighton or us at Plymouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivan Katalinic's 'tache Posted 27 April, 2011 Share Posted 27 April, 2011 I think we'll be all but up on Saturday. Poyet has been questioning the Brighton players last effort, in the Sussex press, so I'd expect a response from them if they want to be playing for him next year. Also, a massive plus for them is the return after suspension of Gordon Greer who really holds their defence together. Hopefully, we'll take advantage of Brentford's woes but, even if it's all square going into the last week (or worse!!), I can see us having some joy against both Argyle and Walsall as both sides need points and will have to attack rather than stifling us and hitting us on the break. Feeling positive (but oh so anxious!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acersaint Posted 27 April, 2011 Share Posted 27 April, 2011 Saturday Brighton 2-1 Huddersfield Brentford 0-2 Saints Monday Plymouth 1-1 Saints JOB DONE!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
for_heaven's_Saint Posted 27 April, 2011 Share Posted 27 April, 2011 Beat Brentford and we're up, fail to beat them and the pressure of having to get something at Plymouth may prove too much IMO, as I also think Huddersfield will beat Brighton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tamesaint Posted 27 April, 2011 Share Posted 27 April, 2011 We will blow it in the league and end up finishing 3rd. We will then play Bompey twice in the play offs, beat them by a 5 goal aggregate, have a day out at Old Trafford and stutter to a 1-0 win over fronchise FC .... and there will be the biggest outbreak of mass hysteria followed 3 weeks later by mass rejoicing in the history of Southampton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West End Saint Posted 27 April, 2011 Share Posted 27 April, 2011 I hope we can do it Saturday we need to win at Brentford & hope BHA do the decent thing & smash Udders then I can relax however I have had a feeling for ages that it will be the Plymouth game where we get promoted. I hope the team are not as over confident as us lot but since the epic win at Brighton I just believe we are going up very glad I have tickets for our last 3 games really looking forward to this weekend 1st time all season I have wanted Brighton to win a game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
View From The Top Posted 27 April, 2011 Share Posted 27 April, 2011 We'll get promoted at Guzz. 'Tis in the stars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 27 April, 2011 Author Share Posted 27 April, 2011 Look forward to thanking Brighton for four valuable points then beating Hudds to promote us - their fans would hate that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotty Posted 27 April, 2011 Share Posted 27 April, 2011 It is their last match at Withdean, this is not the first time it has been mentioned on here in the last couple of weeks... Maybe thats where I remembered it from then, not being the type to go on other clubs forums... and would you agree that brighton might be rather keen to win the game? and that they f*cking ought to as runaway winners of the division? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_Jonny Posted 27 April, 2011 Share Posted 27 April, 2011 Reading this thread has got me all nervous... This Saturday can't come quick enough now!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalek2003 Posted 27 April, 2011 Share Posted 27 April, 2011 At Old Trafford...i'm afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttawaSaint Posted 27 April, 2011 Share Posted 27 April, 2011 5/5/2013... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_Jonny Posted 27 April, 2011 Share Posted 27 April, 2011 At Old Trafford...i'm afraid. Even in the position we find ourselves in you are determined we will end up in the play off's. You are officially ****ing mental! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dune Posted 27 April, 2011 Share Posted 27 April, 2011 http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-one/promotion We are currently between 1/10 and 1/12 to be promoted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
View From The Top Posted 27 April, 2011 Share Posted 27 April, 2011 At Old Trafford...i'm afraid. If only we had Hoddle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohio Saint Posted 27 April, 2011 Share Posted 27 April, 2011 If and when will we get promoted? I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfc4prem Posted 27 April, 2011 Share Posted 27 April, 2011 I reckon we'll lose 1-0 to Brentford and Huddersfield will win 2-0 against Brighton. Then I reckon we'll go to Plymouth and draw, and then win against Walsall with Huddersfield beating Brentford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfc4prem Posted 27 April, 2011 Share Posted 27 April, 2011 And to the people saying we have it in the bag; have you never learnt from previous dealings as a Saints fan? We can still fook this up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doddisalegend Posted 27 April, 2011 Share Posted 27 April, 2011 (edited) Have I got this wrong, or is the hudds game brightons last match at the withdean? If so, they arent going to roll over at home even if it meant them shafting us (rolleyes thingy) It's not like the Withdean is some sort of spirtual home for Brighton it was temporary stop gap and a ****ty one at that, I'm not sure being their last match will mean much other than they can't wait to get to the new place. I don't think the Brighton players would throw the game on purpose just that at the back of their minds they know they've done what the need to and Faliraki is nice in May, also why risk an injury now for a nothing game. Hudders players on the other hand know they need to fight for every point and have a long unbeatean run to maintain. I just think hudders will want it more. Edited 27 April, 2011 by doddisalegend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan The Flames Posted 27 April, 2011 Share Posted 27 April, 2011 It will definitely be; lose, draw, win for us in the last three games. So for it to be automatic will all depend on Huddersfield's results which I haven't got a clue about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saints_is_the_south Posted 27 April, 2011 Share Posted 27 April, 2011 Sat: Brighton 1-1 Huddersfield Brentford 0-2 Saints Mon: Plymouth 1-2 Saints Promoted at Plymouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 27 April, 2011 Author Share Posted 27 April, 2011 It will definitely be; lose, draw, win for us in the last three games. So for it to be automatic will all depend on Huddersfield's results which I haven't got a clue about. Thanks, but how did you find out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotty Posted 27 April, 2011 Share Posted 27 April, 2011 It's not like the Withdean is some sort of spirtual home for Brighton it was temporary stop gap and a ****ty one at that, I'm not sure being their last match will mean much other than they can't wait to get to the new place. I don't think the Brighton players would throw the game on purpose just that at the back of their minds they know they've done what the need to and Faliraki is nice in May, also why risk an injury now for a nothing game. Hudders players on the other hand know they need to fight for every point and have a long unbeatean run to maintain. I just think hudders will want it more. Hudds probably will want it more, but brighton ought to have the edge, just look at the table. And thats not just their last game at the withdean, its also their last home game of the season, surely they will be keen to send their home fans off with a win? I bet theyre getting the ballboys and cardwavers trained up as we type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalek2003 Posted 27 April, 2011 Share Posted 27 April, 2011 If only we had Hoddle. We would still be in the Premiership ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Fan CaM Posted 27 April, 2011 Share Posted 27 April, 2011 It will go to the last game of the season. At 75m we will be drawing against Walsall and Hudders will also be drawing - the next goal being the one that seals 2nd place. It never comes, meaning we go up on GD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Strover Posted 28 April, 2011 Share Posted 28 April, 2011 I think we'll win at Brentford and Huddersfield will lose at Brighton and that - apart from three very unlikely results in the remaining games - will be that! Then we can start whinging when we don't instantly start winning every Championship game 5-0 and signing on Messi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minsk Posted 28 April, 2011 Share Posted 28 April, 2011 I think we will be mathematically certain of promotion after the Walsall game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doddisalegend Posted 28 April, 2011 Share Posted 28 April, 2011 I think we'll win at Brentford and Huddersfield will lose at Brighton and that - apart from three very unlikely results in the remaining games - will be that! Then we can start whinging when we don't instantly start winning every Championship game 5-0 and signing on Messi. It's the championship thus a bit harder so 4-0 will suffice next season if we go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamster Posted 28 April, 2011 Share Posted 28 April, 2011 I'm sure I read that no subs were allowed in those days if a player was injuired he carried on on you played a man down. Correct, subs were introduced mid 60's. Interesting trivia fact: The very first sub to be used in a match was Keith Peacock who came on to replace Charlton's (played his whole career there) Goalie. The season when teams were permitted to use a second sub, 1986, we played QPR at home. We ran out 5-1 winners with iirc Colin Clarke scoring a hat trick, this result put us top of the league. The very interesting fact is that QPR were the first team ever to bring on a second substitute and that substitute was Gavin Peacock, Keith Peacock's son. As a side note Keith was the manger of Gillingham at the time and due to them being my mistress club I may be the only person who is aware of this interesting fact, I may also be the only person who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGTL Posted 28 April, 2011 Share Posted 28 April, 2011 Anyone else feeling sick? I can't wait for these two games this weekend, biggest away games since Derby in the play-offs, but I certainly won't be enjoying them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamster Posted 28 April, 2011 Share Posted 28 April, 2011 Although I will be ecstatic if the results go to plan on Saturday I will understand some celebrating promotion. Tough as it will be to contain the elation, I believe the proper celebration will properly be held at home in front of our fans on the last day of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dronskisaint Posted 28 April, 2011 Share Posted 28 April, 2011 "Pride comes before a fall", "Take nothing for granted", "Don't count your chickens until they are hatched". Need I go on? Let's celebrate when (and if) it is certain and thereby not live up to our growing arrogant reputation. This - We've been down this road a good few times over the years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doddisalegend Posted 28 April, 2011 Share Posted 28 April, 2011 This - We've been down this road a good few times over the years Surely in reverse? "we're as a good as down, bloody hell we've stayed up again" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
(not THE) Kevin Moore Posted 28 April, 2011 Share Posted 28 April, 2011 I don't think we can rely on Brighton, I don't think they will deliberately lose the game, or even put out a weakened side, but psycholigically I think they've lost their edge and won't be as up for it as Udders, last game at the Withdean or not. So I think (but will be listening to solent on Sat and fervently hoping otherwise) that it'll go down to the wire!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan17 Posted 28 April, 2011 Share Posted 28 April, 2011 Anyone else feeling sick? I can't wait for these two games this weekend, biggest away games since Derby in the play-offs, but I certainly won't be enjoying them. Having just read this thread all the way through, yes I am now feeling very sick and my pulse must have doubled. I am so nervous for this weekend. I keep thinking 'We will win two of our last games, no problem'. But then I keep reading people talking about drawing both away matches and Hudds winning on Saturday at Brighton. This is making me very very nervous because I can easily see this happening. I really want to get this weekend over with - I wish it was already over and I knew what I had to deal with. That said, on Monday evening I will be wishing that I could have the whole weekend and emotional experience again. Phew, for a minute there, I lost myself....... COYS!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liquidshokk Posted 28 April, 2011 Share Posted 28 April, 2011 Having just read this thread all the way through, yes I am now feeling very sick and my pulse must have doubled. I am so nervous for this weekend. I keep thinking 'We will win two of our last games, no problem'. But then I keep reading people talking about drawing both away matches and Hudds winning on Saturday at Brighton. This is making me very very nervous because I can easily see this happening. I really want to get this weekend over with - I wish it was already over and I knew what I had to deal with. That said, on Monday evening I will be wishing that I could have the whole weekend and emotional experience again. Phew, for a minute there, I lost myself....... COYS!!!!! Not many things make me feel this anxious and it's not even me playing!! Its the fear of being plunged into serious disappointment if it all goes tits up this weekend. Not sure I could take all the mickey taking from hudds and brighton fans if we miss out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alpine_saint Posted 28 April, 2011 Share Posted 28 April, 2011 Reckon there is a not-insignificant chance of us being in the NPC come 5pm on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 28 April, 2011 Author Share Posted 28 April, 2011 am away this weekend, so not even listening to the two games - maybe better for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkish Posted 28 April, 2011 Share Posted 28 April, 2011 Reckon there is a not-insignificant chance of us being in the NPC come 5pm on Saturday. For selfish reasons (i am going to Plymouth and not Brentford) i'd like us to win at Brentford and Hudderfield draw at Brighton, then for us to win on monday to seal it, although i think you are right, there is a good chance if we take care of business saturday we could be as good as up, if not then monday will do nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
(not THE) Kevin Moore Posted 28 April, 2011 Share Posted 28 April, 2011 Reckon there is a not-insignificant chance of us being in the NPC come 5pm on Saturday. **** me, if even you're 'on the bus' maybe I'm worrying about nothing!! Good to have you along. I REALLY, REALLY hope we do it this weekend, the stress is killing me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goalie66 Posted 28 April, 2011 Share Posted 28 April, 2011 I think we will beat Brentford and Brighton will draw with Huddersfield meaning that we will draw with Plymouth on Monday and thereby be promoted. I expect 0-0 against Walsall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saints-cris Posted 28 April, 2011 Share Posted 28 April, 2011 As long as WE win, I think we'll be all but there anyway. We're all hoping that Brighton do us a favour, but hell if we win, wether Hudds win lose or draw, I cant see us not winning one of Walsall or Plymouth. Us first, worry bout them after. Though the thought of it being all over on Saturday makes me giddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 28 April, 2011 Share Posted 28 April, 2011 **** me, if even you're 'on the bus' maybe I'm worrying about nothing!! Good to have you along. I REALLY, REALLY hope we do it this weekend, the stress is killing me! It would be a whole lot more simple if Brighton weren't playing Huddersfield. I'm not at all convinced that Brighton will just let them win but they may not put in overmuch effort.Brighton have also picked up a few injuries of late...a fact to which we contributed. The only bright spot that I can see is the return of Greer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 28 April, 2011 Author Share Posted 28 April, 2011 For selfish reasons (i am going to Plymouth and not Brentford) i'd like us to win at Brentford and Hudderfield draw at Brighton, then for us to win on monday to seal it, although i think you are right, there is a good chance if we take care of business saturday we could be as good as up, if not then monday will do nicely. started thinking that way but as I am not seeing us again until Walsall think will take Saints and Brighton wins to take us up in little over 48 hours time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saints-cris Posted 28 April, 2011 Share Posted 28 April, 2011 I want it done this weekend. A point to make it 'official' at Plymouth, then a party atmosphere/Markus tributes completely relaxed against Walsall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now