Can we catch them?

[NickG]

Over the first 7 games of the season

 

Brighton: Won 4, drew 2, lost 1.

Saints: Won 1, drew 2, lost 4.

 

We've been neck and neck ever since.

 

The difference between us is that we had our usual poor start and they had a good one.

 

We must work on pre season and get our heads in the right place from day 1.

 

so were 9 points behind after 7 games, win our game in hand will be 10 behind - shows what good impact Adkins has had

[alpine_saint]

No.

[Dark Munster]

Possibly. If Plymouth go bust before the end of the season, and all their results are expunged, then Brighton will lose 6 points (and Saints will lose none). That, coupled with a Saints win at the Withdean, would make it interesting.

 

Otherwise, no.

[terrasaint]

Brighton have got:

Dagenham & Redbridge (H); Walsall (A); Southampton (H); Colchester (A); Huddersfield (H); Notts County (A)

 

If they lose to us and Huddersfield, and draw at Colchester (who could still make play-offs) and Notts county (who are fighting to survive) and they beat daggers and walsall that will put them on 95 points

 

If we win all our games we will be on 95 points so would go down to goal diff.

 

But they could lose to us,Huddersfield and Colchester drawing with Notts county putting them on 94 points.

 

The race for the title is far from over imo.

 

I would be much happier to see them beat Huddersfield. Promotion is our first priority!!!

[Dan Johnson]

I thought Brighton might have been a play off side this season, but all credit to them they've been exceptional! with 14,000 season tickets sold in their new stadium for next season already and a really good manager in charge they can push on next season.

 

A far cry from their dark days.

 

I expect us to finish above them next season if we both get promoted though...

[terrasaint]

I would be much happier to see them beat Huddersfield. Promotion is our first priority!!!

 

My opinion may change if we have secured promotion by then of course!

[stmusicdude]

We need to concentrate on 2nd,end of.

WHY? whats wrong ? our aim is only to keep winning .. this dosent alter that so why does it matter that we "focus" on 2nd?

dont underestimate how much a role confidence plays in football & nerves .. few more shocks yet to come this season .. indeed if they win & are promoted, & do let that get to them it's very easy to take foot off pedal, without wanting to & then be unable to find the pedal again ..

[SaintBobby]

I'd say it's deeply, deeply unlikely.

 

They've been amazingly consistent and there just aren't enough games left to catch them really.

 

It's maybe a 1% or 2% chance...no higher.

 

May as well aim for it. But I agree with those who will be cheering Brighton on against Huddersfield.

[Deppo]

If alpine saint says "No", then it's a definite no. He's usually optimistic.

[Gemmel]

http://www.theargus.co.uk/news/8961505.Albion_sold_16_000_tickets_already/

 

I see they have sold 16'000 season tickets for net season already. I think that officially makes pompey the third biggest club on the South Coast.

 

Fantastic, effort and an incredible season. No we can't catch them, it's second for us.

[SNSUN]

I would much rather Brighton win against Huddersfield and we can finish second comfortably than worry about being champions. It's virtually undoable anyway imo, Brighton deserve to be up there with their consistency. Getting out this league is priority number one, second place gives us this, and I'd take it with bells on.

 

But all we can do is keep winning...

[DECROMAX]

NO......I blame Wilkins

[NickG]

If alpine saint says "No", then it's a definite no. He's usually optimistic.

 

unfortunately he has also said no to 2nd

[adrian lord]

You are deluded

 

Typical wrist-slitter mentality.

[Huffton]

Not arguing with the OPs calculations but on the football league show they said they only need one more win? Or was that to guarantee automatic promotion?

[NickG]

for promotion

 

Hudds can get 89, we can get 95 - Brighton on 87 so one win gets them 2nd at worst

[trousers]

Yes

[Micky]

Of course we can catch them - but not until next season. They are home free now (and thoroughly deserve to be), let's just concentrate on not blowing 2nd place and then see who's top dog next year - should be interesting.

[DrunkenSaint]

Not a chance. Let's just concentrate on 2nd..

 

agree they have won it and fair play to them now lets get 2nd!

[Seaside Saint 2]

What's more interesting is that if we win our next two games and Brighton win their next two games then our match at the Withdean will hand them the title if we fail to win.

[Draino76]

Yes, of course we can. The wheels will fall off their gay bus.

Edited 10 April, 2011 by Draino76

[Tac-tics]

we can but we wont. we dont deserve it, too many silly results over the season.

[saintscottofthenortham]

We dropped 10 points at home in our first four home games though. Our away form wasn't too bad but those four results in hindsight are massive anomalies when you look at our home record between then and now.

 

Thinking back to that period, it doesn't feel like that spell was this season. My f*****g god we were shít then.

[Dazza82]

we can but we wont. we dont deserve it, too many silly results over the season.

 

This sort of thing confuses me, Mathmatically we can catch them so if we do and finish top we deserve to because we would of got there over 46 games.

[John Cool]

2nd will do me Schumy :-)

[SW11_Saint]

Let's just focus on getting second place and going up. Once we have achieved that we can all start *****ing about not winning the league...

[Smirking_Saint]

Not read any of this thread other then the OP

 

The answer is.................NO

[The9]

Agreed, no, we won't catch them even if we beat them.

[Ohio Saint]

I don't care about catching them. Not even sure if I want to. They earned it, they deserve it.....As long as we do our best in every match and get the results we need I will be completely happy and content.

[Stud mark of doom]

I agree very unlikely. Interesting However that over the last 8 games we have gained 17(!) points on another south coast team beginning with B who were flying and very consistent etc.

[St_Tel49]

Unlikely and, to be honest, I don't really care. I am far more interested in ensuring that we keep the automatic promotion spot. If, in the course of doing that, we sneak past Brighton - well that would be a nice bonus.

[trousers]

I agree very unlikely. Interesting However that over the last 8 games we have gained 17(!) points on another south coast team beginning with B who were flying and very consistent etc.

 

Indeed. Had there been a thread entitled: "can we get 17 more points than Bournemouth over the next 8 games?" you'd get pretty much the same spread of answers you see on this thread...

 

It's a funny old game Saint...

[Saint Fan CaM]

No we will not catch them. Does it matter? No. Who remembers who the Champs of L1 are? No-one. I tell you what will be remembered though - if we obtain back to back promotions by storming the Championship next season.

[thesaint sfc]

It does matter. I've got a £25 bet riding on it

[(not THE) Kevin Moore]

I can't see it happening personally, but there have been plenty of teams who dominate all season, then seem to struggle to get over the line at the last, psychological pressure or some such.

 

I don't think Brighton will do that but it could happen.

 

2nd is fine for me anyway.

[Lets B Avenue]

2nd in 1966. 2nd in 1978. 2nd in 2011 will do for me.

[Mowgli]

Aim for 1st - worst can happen is 2nd. Aim for 2nd - worse that can happen is playoffs.

 

So let's aim for 1st. Whilst it is mathematically possible that can be the only target. When it is mathematically impossible we settle for 2nd which I will be quite happy with.

[Petersfield Saint]

Not a chance, they have as good as won the league already. They fully deserve it too, all credit to them.

 

This

 

I don't see what the difference is. Either way, we need to keep winning.

 

But also this!

[skintsaint]

If we win every game then maybe....maybe they could draw/lose a few games.

 

I wouldnt put money on it though.

[Micky]

Aim for 1st - worst can happen is 2nd. Aim for 2nd - worse that can happen is playoffs.

 

So let's aim for 1st. Whilst it is mathematically possible that can be the only target. When it is mathematically impossible we settle for 2nd which I will be quite happy with.

 

Yes, we are probably all agreed on this. But the specific question that the OP raises is (I think), can (will) we catch Brighton, can (will) we overhaul them, will we win the league?

[thesaint sfc]

Yes, we are probably all agreed on this. But the specific question that the OP raises is (I think), can (will) we catch Brighton, can (will) we overhaul them, will we win the league?

 

I can confirm Mick, that come the end of the season when all games have been played, we will know whether (or not) we have won the league.

[Kevin Turvey]

It also doesn't account for the huge advantage they have in that ground. Teams HATE going there because it's a horrible experience in all ways

 

Teams may hate going there but it's not really an advantage for us. Last season we lost more games at home than any other team in league one. In previous seasons we've alternated between mediocrity and so-so at home. This season we've been superb at home but our away form this season is also the best in League One and both home and away can be attributed simply to our management team of Poyet and Tarricco.

 

fans hate it too

 

Absolutely. In years to come, when people on this board talk about tinpot little grounds they've watched the Saints at, I fully expect Withdean to be pretty high on everyone's list. And believe me, us Brighton fans hate it as much as you do.

 

They could get a big shock in a new ground when teams enjoy going there.

 

Yep, this does worry me....as does losing Poyet.

[The9]

On the bright side, Saints are now guaranteed to finish at least 9th.

[Bakovnetski]

WTF?....school's out.

[Simster]

You're 16/1 for the title which is probably about right.

 

However, Gus will decide whether that represents good value or not. I'm half thinking that he might play his fringe players once automatic promotion is secure, and if that happens then 16/1 would certainly look like a value bet, especially given our fixture list. I'm saying it would make you favourites as we would still have to collapse ridiculously to let you in, but if the odds drift even further after we've beaten Dagenham tomorrow night, I might have some of that as a hedge against being massively disappointed.

 

Up until now, you've been the second best team in the league and I'm pleased you'll probably join us in the Championship. In fact Albion v Southampton on August 6th would be perfect, and a neat symmetry with us being your last opponents at the Dell.

[OVER THE HILL]

I think you will find that our last opponents at the Dell were Arsenal ,we won 3-2 with Matt Le tiz scorring the winner.

 

OOPS youre right I think there was a friendly the following week. There can't have been many seats left.

Edited 11 April, 2011 by OVER THE HILL
old age

[Toadhall Saint]

Stranger things have happened but realistically we won't catch them.

[Crab Lungs]

I'm with nervous Nige on this; we've just got to keep chipping away, the lads are taking care of business, they've worked fantastically hard and as you can see, they're together as one. We've just got to keep chipping away and see where it takes us as we'll keep chipping away and taking one game at a time. It's as simple as that.

 

[farawaysaint]

Short answer no... Long answer HELL NO! We expect a team that's lost 4 times this season to do the same on the run-in? I don't see it happening.

[Toadhall Saint]

And I'd settle for comfortable 2nd and beating Brighton on their own 'ground'.

 

And that is what I'll predict.