Andyb1 Posted 19 April, 2011 Posted 19 April, 2011 The playoffs have always been the most likely scenario. 2nd is a bonus, worth going for, but we must not be too depressed if we don't make it. I predict a Posh v Saints meeting at OT in May. Why on earth is that the case? Please break down exactly why as i'm having some serious problems understanding you logic or lack of.
Matthew Le God Posted 19 April, 2011 Posted 19 April, 2011 The playoffs have always been the most likely scenario. 2nd is a bonus, worth going for, but we must not be too depressed if we don't make it. How can the playoffs be "the most likely scenario" for a team currently in 2nd place with a game in hand on those below and picked up 25 points out of the last 30 available?
SaintBobby Posted 19 April, 2011 Posted 19 April, 2011 Ridiculous views being expressed on here. Usually football fans are accused of being unrealistically optimistic...
Appy Posted 19 April, 2011 Posted 19 April, 2011 How can the playoffs be "the most likely scenario" for a team currently in 2nd place with a game in hand on those below and picked up 25 points out of the last 30 available? Because Hoddle isn't in charge.
Avenue Saint Posted 19 April, 2011 Posted 19 April, 2011 I think we might draw at Brighton but for one reason or another I believe udders will come away with 3 from that game but all told I believe (mostly hope) we will sneak the auto on a difference of a point or maybe even goal difference from PETERBOROUGH! Think Huddersfield will come 3rd
Deppo Posted 19 April, 2011 Posted 19 April, 2011 (edited) I'll sum up: Brighton (A): Important game Hartlepool (H): Must-win game Brentford (A): Crucial game Plymouth (A): Key game Walsall (H): Vital game Edited 20 April, 2011 by Deppo Upgraded Walsall from 'Very Important' to 'Vital'. Thanks to opthomps.
ludgershallsaint Posted 19 April, 2011 Posted 19 April, 2011 We've got to be favourites for the two home games. If we don't win those we'll be in trouble but if we do I think things will take care of themselves. It only takes Huddersfield to lose one game and their maximum is 86. A points tally that is more than achievable for us.
Saint Charlie Posted 19 April, 2011 Posted 19 April, 2011 Can easily see Hudds dropping points, it is ours for the taking, especially if we get anything Vs Brighton.
hackedoff Posted 19 April, 2011 Posted 19 April, 2011 If Hudds and Peterboro both drop points on Friday then I think we will crawl over the line. If, as I fear somebody gets an away win then its play-offs for us.
NickG Posted 19 April, 2011 Posted 19 April, 2011 nothing will be decided this weekend, quite obviously. If others drop points and we win - we will look very likely for automatic. Otherwise, and quite likely it will still be unclear with us the favourites
Dark Munster Posted 19 April, 2011 Posted 19 April, 2011 I'll sum up: Brighton (A): Important game Hartlepool (H): Must-win game Brentford (A): Crucial game Plymouth (A): Key game Walsall (H): Very important game ^ Not necessarily. Would be irrelevant if Saints win the first four.
krissyboy31 Posted 19 April, 2011 Posted 19 April, 2011 ^ Not necessarily. Would be irrelevant if Saints win the first four. Or lose them!
opthomps Posted 19 April, 2011 Posted 19 April, 2011 I'll sum up: Brighton (A): Important game Hartlepool (H): Must-win game Brentford (A): Crucial game Plymouth (A): Key game Walsall (H): Very important game Disagree. I think Walsall (H): Vital
Andy Durman Posted 20 April, 2011 Posted 20 April, 2011 We need a minimum of eight points from the last five games. Remain undefeated and 2 home wins and we're home
Pierre Posted 20 April, 2011 Posted 20 April, 2011 Scary statistic: we have not beaten any of our remaining opponents this season.
Andyb1 Posted 20 April, 2011 Posted 20 April, 2011 Scary statistic: we have not beaten any of our remaining opponents this season. Less scary statistic. None of them are as good as us, baring Brighton.
Deppo Posted 20 April, 2011 Posted 20 April, 2011 Disagree. I think Walsall (H): Vital Good point. I'll upgrade it.
scotty Posted 20 April, 2011 Posted 20 April, 2011 Disagree. I think Walsall (H): Vital please God, can we have already been promoted by then?
Whitey Grandad Posted 20 April, 2011 Posted 20 April, 2011 please God, can we have already been promoted by then? Easter Monday is the earliest that we could be, by my reckoning.
Matthew Le God Posted 20 April, 2011 Posted 20 April, 2011 Easter Monday is the earliest that we could be, by my reckoning. Not possible for Saints to confirm for certain promotion on Easter Monday. Only get a "very likely" promotion, due to a superior goal difference if Huddersfield and Peterborough drop points and Saints get all 6 from the two games. Would still be possible for Huddersfield to catch Saints in the two remaining games, but would need a huge swing in goal difference.
Appy Posted 20 April, 2011 Posted 20 April, 2011 Not possible for Saints to confirm for certain promotion on Easter Monday. Only get a "very likely" promotion, due to a superior goal difference if Huddersfield and Peterborough drop points and Saints get all 6 from the two games. Would still be possible for Huddersfield to catch Saints in the two remaining games, but would need a huge swing in goal difference. It would mean we are promoted, don't be so pedantic.
The9 Posted 20 April, 2011 Posted 20 April, 2011 (edited) It would mean we are promoted, don't be so pedantic. I've always been a fan of the "barring mathematical improbabilities" school of thought... until now. That's because the same concept (maths) which says we're about 15 goals ahead on goal difference, and the opposition can only get the number of points that we're on, is also the same one which underpins the probability of us losing all our remaining games after that point (3 in this case) and one of our opponents winning all of theirs by a cumulative swing of about 15 goals. i.e. pretty bloody unlikely. So rest assured, if we win the next 2 and Huddersfield lose the next 2, with Peterborough also losing one*, I shall be going absolutely spa-mental on Easter Monday, "barring mathematical improbabilities" or not. *I haven't yet checked this is the case, taking others at their word here... Edited 20 April, 2011 by The9
The9 Posted 20 April, 2011 Posted 20 April, 2011 Just checked, using minimum wins in our favour and minimum defeats for opponents to minimise GD swings (i.e. 1-0s as far as possible). Tis true... and in the event of Saints beating Brighton and Hartlepool Huddersfield losing to MK Dons and then at home to Dag & Red and Peterborough losing to one of either Orient or Yeovil (or drawing with both) and even if MK Dons beat Hudd and Plymouth On Easter Monday night we would be : 6 points ahead of Huddersfield with a MINIMUM of a 15 goal advantage in GD and them with 2 to play. At least 6 pts ahead of Peterborough (if they win 1 and lose 1 - and 7 pts clear of them if they draw 2) with approximately a 13 goal advantage (depending on how many they actually won/lost by compared to us) At least 6 pts ahead of MK Dons with approximately a 21 goal advantage (depending on how many they won by compared to us). and with 3 matches left we'd also have a game in hand on all of them. That is a best case scenario. But an MK Dons win over Huddersfield would be VERY useful no matter what happens at Withdean, as MK have by far the worst GD on the chasing 3 and the fewest points.
Matthew Le God Posted 20 April, 2011 Posted 20 April, 2011 It would mean we are promoted, don't be so pedantic. I just meant we won't see a (P) Southampton on any League Tables at 5pm Easter Monday. I don't deny that if Saints win both, Huddersfield lose both and Peterborough lose one game out of the Easter games then Saints are pretty much promoted.
NickG Posted 20 April, 2011 Posted 20 April, 2011 Not possible for Saints to confirm for certain promotion on Easter Monday. Only get a "very likely" promotion, due to a superior goal difference if Huddersfield and Peterborough drop points and Saints get all 6 from the two games. Would still be possible for Huddersfield to catch Saints in the two remaining games, but would need a huge swing in goal difference. if we win our two games 2-0, Huddersfield lose their two games 2-0 - not likely but not totally freaky results, this will leave us promoted even if we lose to Brentford, Plymouth and Wallsall each 4-0 AND Huddersfield win their last two games 4-0, so think you would be safe to say we were promoted on Easter ~Monday if we get those results or better!
Dark Munster Posted 20 April, 2011 Posted 20 April, 2011 Disagree. I think Walsall (H): Vital Or irrelevant.
Whitey Grandad Posted 20 April, 2011 Posted 20 April, 2011 I just meant we won't see a (P) Southampton on any League Tables at 5pm Easter Monday. I don't deny that if Saints win both, Huddersfield lose both and Peterborough lose one game out of the Easter games then Saints are pretty much promoted. I know the feeling. I can't relax even if Saints are 4-0 up and we're 5 minutes into injury time.
Dalek2003 Posted 21 April, 2011 Posted 21 April, 2011 I know the feeling. I can't relax even if Saints are 4-0 up and we're 5 minutes into injury time. Sounds like my way of thinking. i got nervous in the JPT final when Carlisle scored to make it 4-1 !
scotty Posted 21 April, 2011 Posted 21 April, 2011 I know the feeling. I can't relax even if Saints are 4-0 up and we're 5 minutes into injury time. You went to the JPT final then;)
Whitey Grandad Posted 21 April, 2011 Posted 21 April, 2011 You went to the JPT final then;) Yeah, couldn't enjoy it - I was a bundle of nerves.
mitch01 Posted 21 April, 2011 Posted 21 April, 2011 I think we will need a win to be sure of promotion on the final day. And we will win by 1 goal. And there will be a scare in stoppage time. The final whistle will be awesome.
Chez Posted 21 April, 2011 Posted 21 April, 2011 Yeah, couldn't enjoy it - I was a bundle of nerves. you are kidding? I have never been so calm at a Saints game in all my life. It felt like a walk in the park. Maybe my lack of genuine care about the JPT was the reason. Much more nervous about Saturday than the JPT final.
Dalek2003 Posted 21 April, 2011 Posted 21 April, 2011 you are kidding? I have never been so calm at a Saints game in all my life. It felt like a walk in the park. Maybe my lack of genuine care about the JPT was the reason. Much more nervous about Saturday than the JPT final. The game aginst Brighton is a much bigger game, but remember we are in the play offs whatever happens !
Scummer Posted 21 April, 2011 Posted 21 April, 2011 I still think Home Park will be the place we go up. Just done the BBC predictor, and I had it that we get promoted at Plymouth. That's after drawing our next two away games and winning the home game, then beating Plymouth.
bender Posted 21 April, 2011 Posted 21 April, 2011 Easter Monday is the earliest that we could be, by my reckoning. No. If we win both on Saturday and on Monday and Hudders and Posh lose both, we would be 6 points clear with them having 2 games in hand. Not mathematically safe. Even if the worst was to happen this weekend and Hudders won leaving them 3 points clear of us, we would only need to make up those 3 points playing both Brentford & Plymouth away whilst they play Brighton away. I reckon we'll go 3 points behind them this weekend, then make it up next weekend leaving us with 2 games left and them 1. We will only then need to win our wallsall H game.
Thedelldays Posted 21 April, 2011 Posted 21 April, 2011 we really need hudders to at best (for us) draw with brighton or MK Dons away. if they get 6 points from that lot then fair play....I think 4 MAX...probably 3
NickG Posted 21 April, 2011 Posted 21 April, 2011 If results go our way (e.g. a couple of 2-0 wins for us, and 2-0 defeats for Huddersfield) we can be realistically out of reach on Easter Monday and safely celebrate promotion! (can't see it happening tho!)
Thedelldays Posted 21 April, 2011 Posted 21 April, 2011 how would it look if we (somehow) beat brighton and the other 2 lose..?
NickG Posted 21 April, 2011 Posted 21 April, 2011 how would it look if we (somehow) beat brighton and the other 2 lose..? if we win our two games 2-0, Huddersfield lose their two games 2-0 - not likely but not totally freaky results, this will leave us promoted even if we lose to Brentford, Plymouth and Wallsall each 4-0 AND Huddersfield win their last two games 4-0, so think you would be safe to say we were promoted on Easter ~Monday if we get those results or better¬
Spudders Posted 22 April, 2011 Posted 22 April, 2011 I still think Home Park will be the place we go up. This is what I'd like to happen
MadDogMatt Posted 22 April, 2011 Posted 22 April, 2011 At Orient today to give them my support Not many joining in with OWTS yet
NickG Posted 22 April, 2011 Posted 22 April, 2011 BBC predictor Orient 2 Peterborough 2 MK 1 Huddersfield 1 Brighton 2 Saints 0 Hudds 2 Dagg 0 Peterborough 3 Yeovil 1 Saints 2 Hartlepool 0 Brentford 1 Saints 0 Brighton 1 Huddersfield 1 Rochdale 1 Posh 2 Plymouth 1 Saints 1 Huddersfield 2 Brentford 1 Posh 2 Daggers 0 Saints 4 Wallsall 0 Huddersfield 85 Saints 84 Posh 84 Huddersfield two points ahead of schedule! This has us one point behind them so we need to catch up 3. Win tomorrow will do it! Peterborough point behind schedule and had them winning next 3.
Lets B Avenue Posted 22 April, 2011 Posted 22 April, 2011 Huddersfield two points ahead of schedule! This has us one point behind them so we need to catch up 3. Win tomorrow will do it! Peterborough point behind schedule and had them winning next 3. Just proves that you are to predicting scores what Stanthemanfairoak is to syntax and punctuation.
NickG Posted 22 April, 2011 Posted 22 April, 2011 never thought it would be right or would have been doing accumulators!
The9 Posted 23 April, 2011 Posted 23 April, 2011 never thought it would be right or would have been doing accumulators! In that case can you spare us all the daily updates on how wrong it is ? All of us can do crap predictions, and as you had Saints screwing up anyway...
Fan The Flames Posted 23 April, 2011 Posted 23 April, 2011 Huddersfield two points ahead of schedule! This has us one point behind them so we need to catch up 3. Win tomorrow will do it! Peterborough point behind schedule and had them winning next 3. Sorry to say but these updates on your fictitious results that have us finishing third offer nothing to the discussion.
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