The Run-in: Remaining Games; All Teams

[The9]

To get to 15 points Saints need to win five (therefore improving our GD) and lose two (detrimental effect to GD) or win four and draw three, with the GD only going up. Saints have never lost by more than tw goals this season.

 

For a minimum 15 goal swing, Huddersfield will need to win their remaining games by at least a three goal margin.

 

On average. Ish.

 

But your point *is* sound, as they're almost certainly not going to overturn a 15 goal GD deficit AND be in a situation where they need GD as a tie-breaker with us. If they overcome a 15 goal swing, they're going to already be comfortably above us, the only exception being if they somehow rack up a couple of huge wins or we suffer some huge defeats (about 7 goals) and slightly outperform us goalwise but not pointswise in the other games.

Edited 11 April, 2011 by The9

[Dalek2003]

I would say it is too close to call...still.

[Matthew Le God]

I would say it is too close to call...still.

 

Would you say the same if Saints were level on points with Huddersfield and it was Huddersfield that had two games in hand and a better goal difference of +15?

[thegaffer]

I think im right in saying this season the most points Huddersfield have picked up in a 5 game spell is 13 points.They have not won 5 on the spin this season.

[Doctoroncall]

Whoever's got Notts County, their run in just got harder: http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/13036140.stm

 

He's turn Barnet around with seven points out of nine.

 

Bournemouth, MK Dons and last game for Brighton looking at the top eight.

[London Saint]

Any way you can highlight our games in hand at the top of the link?

[saint_stevo]

Brentford away will be tough

[Matthew Le God]

Not if they have nothing to play for at that point. Which looks likely.

[Appy]

Not if they have nothing to play for at that point. Which looks likely.

 

Why because a team that has nothing to play for has never beaten a team with everything to play for?

 

Get real.

[Crab Lungs]

He's turn Barnet around with seven points out of nine.

 

Bournemouth, MK Dons and last game for Brighton looking at the top eight.

 

That's Bournemouth fecked. County have a decent squad to be fair, just been grossly mismanaged. Brighton will probably slip up there too, but it'll be academic by then anyway. That's Dagenham down now.

[SNSUN]

Looking at the fixtures, I reckon we need 13 points to cement second. we'll win our home games, so that leaves 4 points to find from our away games. win vs Rochdale tomorrow and we're virtually home and dry!

[Dalek2003]

Would you say the same if Saints were level on points with Huddersfield and it was Huddersfield that had two games in hand and a better goal difference of +15?

 

Yes, and I would say that saints have a slight advantage, but Posh, Huddersfield and Saints are neck and neck !

[Brussels Saint]

I actually think Huddersfield will beat Brighton during the run in. Brighton will have already been promoted and likely champions also, so may well blood youngsters/fringe etc.

 

If they do that, we would have to hope they do it for us too. Lets face it however, they would want to beat us more, so likely we will face a full strength team and Hudds not.

 

Personally I think the tough Huddersfield run in is over stated, with only MK away likely to cause real problems.

 

 

 

 

Update - Actually scrap that thought, Huddersfield is Brighton's last home game, so unlikely they will want to end with a loss at home. What do you know, I was wrong!

Edited 11 April, 2011 by Brussels Saint
Having a sh*t opinion!

[Doctoroncall]

I actually think Huddersfield will beat Brighton during the run in. Brighton will have already been promoted and likely champions also, so may well blood youngsters/fringe etc.

 

If they do that, we would have to hope they do it for us too. Lets face it however, they would want to beat us more, so likely we will face a full strength team and Hudds not.

 

Personally I think the tough Huddersfield run in is over stated, with only MK away likely to cause real problems.

 

 

 

But it's their last home game and they are unbeaten.

[London Saint]

Lets not count or chickens yet...it is Saints we are talking about remember, we always contrive to f*ck things when it seems 'an easy task'!!

[Dalek2003]

Lets not count or chickens yet...it is Saints we are talking about remember, we always contrive to f*ck things when it seems 'an easy task'!!

 

 

I agree with these sentiments. Too many hopes built up and demolished over the years to believe that we will make it yet. I will wait until it is a mathematical certainty and I won't tempt fate !

[dune]

Don't forget our goal difference. That is as good as a point.

[dune]

Lets not count or chickens yet...it is Saints we are talking about remember, we always contrive to f*ck things when it seems 'an easy task'!!

 

All mumbo jumbo. We used to **** things up because we weren't very good. This season we're not a particularly attractive side to watch, but we are business like. If we go up we'll get a lot better imo as we have a solid foundation to build upon.

[SaintBobby]

Don't forget our goal difference. That is as good as a point.

 

It's as good as half a point really.

 

If we end up on 83 points and Huddersfield end up on 84 points, our superior GD won't bridge the gap.

[Saint_lambden]

Just done the predictor thing:

 

[Dark Munster]

All mumbo jumbo. We used to **** things up because we weren't very good. This season we're not a particularly attractive side to watch, but we are business like. If we go up we'll get a lot better imo as we have a solid foundation to build upon.

 

Even with Cortese as Chairman?

[Fan The Flames]

Wouldn't it be great come the Brighton Huddersfield game if were were hoping for a Huddersfield win.

[Fan The Flames]

I actually think Huddersfield will beat Brighton during the run in. Brighton will have already been promoted and likely champions also, so may well blood youngsters/fringe etc.

 

Update - Actually scrap that thought, Huddersfield is Brighton's last home game, so unlikely they will want to end with a loss at home. What do you know, I was wrong!

 

Some Brighton fans seemed to think they owe us one from some notion we contrived with Spurs in the 70's to stop Brighton getting promoted. They would love nothing better than to lose to Huddersfield to keep us down.

[dellbert]

I have been tracking our form since the New Year...and estimated we would need an average of 2-points per game. I think we would end up on 84-points and I think that would be enough - with 7-games left and 21-points available I think we will easily achieve the avarage of 2-points and secure more than the 84-points originally estimated. Not sure we can win all our remaining games - but should be able to go undefeated until the end of the season. Although Brighton will be a tough game - we like night games in the north...Rochdale will be a tough test (just like Oldham was just across the M62).

A draw would not be a disaster - neither Peterborough or Huddersfield are playing on Tuesday night... time to put some real distance between us and the pretenders!

 

I have been boldly stating for a few days now that 83 points will see us promoted in 2nd - that's 3 home wins! Now stick in the away points we will undoubtedly pick up and it's cast-iron, rock-bottom, nailed-on certainty; pause, touches lucky rabbit's foot! It's 1978 all over again - I knew when we won at Orient!!

[The9]

Some Brighton fans seemed to think they owe us one from some notion we contrived with Spurs in the 70's to stop Brighton getting promoted. They would love nothing better than to lose to Huddersfield to keep us down.

 

Then again, after Lee Clark running onto the pitch mimicking Poyet's card waving and Brighton's time-wasting at the Galpharm (sound familiar?) I'm sure they have more recent issues.

[Saint_lambden]

I know Brighton would love to keep us down but that Huddersfield game is their last ever at the Withdean and they'll be lifting the trophy that game so I doubt they'll wanna go out on a wimper, along with getting revenge for losing to them back in December.

[keithd]

Dunno if its been mentioned, but another factor in out favour "might" be the fact we're now in Spring, grass has grown on pretty much most of the pitches so fewer bobbling surfaces to hinder a decent passing game.

 

Bit ambiguous but i'll take any positive

[KK the 2nd]

Sporting Index have the final points spread at 87-88 points for Saints and 81-82 for Huddersfield, which puts us six points clear in second at the end of the season. I hope they're right! Might buy on the Huddersfield spread.

[The9]

Dunno if its been mentioned, but another factor in out favour "might" be the fact we're now in Spring, grass has grown on pretty much most of the pitches so fewer bobbling surfaces to hinder a decent passing game.

 

Bit ambiguous but i'll take any positive

 

Tell that to Leyton Orient's ground staff, as bobbly a pitch as I've seen this season, and they passed on it a lot better than we did.

[fanimal]

yeah course they did, always on a plate like Rickies snooker to Lee!!! What was better than that??

[The9]

yeah course they did, always on a plate like Rickies snooker to Lee!!! What was better than that??

 

Any parks player could have made that pass, he could have put it anywhere in about 20 yards of the pitch. Also, how does one decent pass by a Saints player prove that we passed better than Orient for the other 94 minutes ? We didn't.

 

I'll take your "Lambert to Barnard - Goal" and raise you "Guly's shin to the Orient keeper's hands from 40 yards out when he was trying to flick it wide to Lambert".

[Joneth]

Done my Predictor..

I'm thinking Huddersfield are going to struggle in their run in, I've got them down for 7 more points from their remaining games leaving them on 81.

Peterborough could well win all their remaining games, they have couple of tough games at Orient and Rochdale, but if they do win them all they finish on 86 points

We would then need to win our home games, which I think we will, draw tonight at Rochdale and at Plymouth, and lose to Brighton and we'll finish on 86 with a better goal difference.

If Peterbrough drop any points then we only need to beat Bristol Rovers, Hartlepool and Walsall at home to go up.

[SaintBobby]

...

[gogo_saint]

Well we've only got 1 game left against a top 10 team. In that context i'm confident we can't screw it up. We'll probably give it a good go though...

[hughieslastminutegoal]

I know Brighton would love to keep us down but that Huddersfield game is their last ever at the Withdean and they'll be lifting the trophy that game so I doubt they'll wanna go out on a wimper, along with getting revenge for losing to them back in December.

 

Why? New ground coming on, big crowd guaranteed if Saints were the visitors in the Champ, so from a business perspective, they'd want us up with them.

Without us the only south coast derby would be with the skates, so I'm sure they will want to up the quality of the visiting south coast supporters!

[KK the 2nd]

On the betting front ...

The final points spread is now at 85-86 points for Saints and 81-82 for Huddersfield, which puts us four points clear in second at the end of the season (the difference in the spread was six before the Rochdale game).

We are also still clear favourites to finish second (betting without Brighton)1.25 Saints, 5.5 Huddersfield, 11 Peterborough.

It really is in our hands but I just get the felling we may do this the hard way and may go to the final game.

[saintrich]

Just done predictor:

 

have us drawing against Bristol R.

Losing to Brighton

winning Harlepool

drawing Brentford

winning Plymouth

winning Walsall

 

finishing 2nd by 1 point

[Flyer]

The way I see it, Huddersfield will end up on 86 points and Peterboro on 83. Saints need to win 4 games out of 6 to go up.

 

They should win the 3 home games and lose against Brighton so that means 1 win against Brentford or Plymouth and youre up if you beat the teams youre supposed to.

[kpturner]

I think we will be lucky to get 2 points from Brighton and Brentford but I think we will beat Plymuff.

[SaintRichmond]

Best case scenario

 

Saints have 3 Home matches, so hopefully 9 points

 

Huddersfield have 5 Matches left, so let's hope they Lose one of them

 

That would mean Saints would have to get 3 points from their remaining Away Fixtures

 

Charlton v Huddersfield, and MK Dons v Huddersfield are Crucial to our Promotion IMHO

[sambosa75]

Just had another go at the predictor, here is what I predicted:

 

Saints remaining fixtures:

 

Bristol Rovers H 3-1 Win

Brighton A 1-2 Loss

Hartlepool H 2-0 Win

Brentford A 1-1 Draw

Plymouth A 2-0 Win

Walsall H 1-1 Draw

 

Saints to get 11 more points from remaining fixtures

 

Huddersfield remaining fixtures:

 

Charlton A 2-1 Win

MK Dons A 1-1 Draw

Dag & Red H 2-0 Win

Brighton A 1-2 Loss

Brentford H 2-0 Win

 

Hudds to get 10 more points from remaining fixtures

 

Peterborough remaining fixtures:

 

Plymouth H 2-1 Win

Leyton Orient A 0-1 Loss

Yeovil H 3-1 Win

Rochdale A 1-1 Draw

Dag & Red H 1-0 Win

 

Peterborough to get 10 more points from remaining games.

 

League table to finish as:

 

1. Brighton - 105 points

2. SAINTS - 85 Points

3. Huddersfield - 84 Points

4. Peterborough - 81 Points

5. MK Dons - 81 Points

6. Bompey - 74 Points

 

Admittedly my predictions are pretty pessimistic. I really would expect wins against Brentford and Walsall but think with Walsall in particular we'll let the occasion get the better of us and they'll be scrapping to stay up.

 

I just cant see further than Saints getting promoted. If only it was this easy though.

[fanimal]

April 22nd is D Day when both are away befor ewe play Brighton - we always fare better when we dont play!!

[West End Saint]

Gutted we didnt get anything from the Rochdale game 6 hours to get there late but just in time to see there goals go in GRRRRR ! if we could have got a point & put some daylight between us & Udders I would be feeling so much better.

 

I still think we are going to do it but it will be squeaky bum time as Fergy would say must win our home games I think we will win at Plymouth draw at Brentford lose at BHA but 13 points should do it.

 

I hope we get a early goal Saturday against the Gas to settle the nerves come on Mr Lambert time for a hat trick me thinks

[teamsaint]

give that our last game is, on paper, one of the more winnable ones, its likely to go to the last game.

just for the sake of argument after 45 games it might look like this

 

Saints 84

hudds 82

posh 83

 

leaving us to beat Walsall to go up. Even if posh drop 2 points before the last day, we still need a draw to go up. And thats if we win 3 and draw one of the next 5.

 

Statistically, we seem unlikely to get second by more than 3 points, so last day drama looks nailed on. If things go really sweetly we might clinch it at plymuff...but I think tix to the Walsall game are needed!!

[mcjwills]

For the momentous 1000th Post. Why is everybody predicting a defeat against Brighton, They let 3 goals in from Dagenham and Redbridge for gods sake, yes Dagenham and Redbridge, I am sure on a good day our defence is much better than the Daggers, Brighton are away for winning the title on Saturday against Walsall, and will want to put a good showing against us when they play at home possibly as Champions for the first match, that will mean they will not want to sit in defence all game and will open up the play allowing us to play our style, thus giving a good chance of a draw or victory

[Window Cleaner]

For the momentous 1000th Post. Why is everybody predicting a defeat against Brighton, They let 3 goals in from Dagenham and Redbridge for gods sake, yes Dagenham and Redbridge, I am sure on a good day our defence is much better than the Daggers, Brighton are away for winning the title on Saturday against Walsall, and will want to put a good showing against us when they play at home possibly as Champions for the first match, that will mean they will not want to sit in defence all game and will open up the play allowing us to play our style, thus giving a good chance of a draw or victory

 

 

The result against Brighton will very much depend on what side we have available.If we put out a side similar to that of Tuesday last a defeat will ensue.

If we have something like our first XI available we have every chance of a win.

[SNSUN]

For the momentous 1000th Post. Why is everybody predicting a defeat against Brighton, They let 3 goals in from Dagenham and Redbridge for gods sake, yes Dagenham and Redbridge, I am sure on a good day our defence is much better than the Daggers, Brighton are away for winning the title on Saturday against Walsall, and will want to put a good showing against us when they play at home possibly as Champions for the first match, that will mean they will not want to sit in defence all game and will open up the play allowing us to play our style, thus giving a good chance of a draw or victory

 

 

I also believe we'll get something at Brighton but people are predicting a defeat because they have been the best side in the league this season, and haven't been beaten at Home for, like, a year. It will be an extremely tough game, but I still this we'll get something out of it because our want to finish second is greater than Brighton's want to reach 100 points.

[rick1976.4.38]

i think peterboro pose the biggest threat to us finishing second.dont see where they will lose a game,they may draw with rochdale,so we have to win all our games.its not as nailed on as many think.fingers crossed we can do it at plymouth and have the walsall game as a party,coys

[sambosa75]

I also believe we'll get something at Brighton but people are predicting a defeat because they have been the best side in the league this season, and haven't been beaten at Home for, like, a year. It will be an extremely tough game, but I still this we'll get something out of it because our want to finish second is greater than Brighton's want to reach 100 points.

 

I'm not so sure. Brighton are now a team playing without pressure. It can go two ways either they roll over against a side who are still doggedly fighting to join them in promotion or they spray the ball around, pass us off the park and hammer us. I've not done the maths but there is a chance that if they win against us it would confirm that they have won the league which is an extra motivation in itself. Also there is the fact the Brighton fans, players and coaching staff all seem to have a massive chip on their shoulders about us and would love nothing more than to put a dent in our promotion hopes. I really dont think it will be as easy as "they are already promoted so wont try hard against us." I think your dreaming if this is what you believe.

[jam]

I also believe we'll get something at Brighton but people are predicting a defeat because they have been the best side in the league this season, and haven't been beaten at Home for, like, a year. It will be an extremely tough game, but I still this we'll get something out of it because our want to finish second is greater than Brighton's want to reach 100 points.

 

Greater than Brighton's want to reach 100 points, beat the biggest club in the South and remove any possible doubt that they were the best team this year?