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Aintree Grand National Meeting 7-9 April

chrisobee

By chrisobee,
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labibs

labibs

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Some decent races across the three days, should be good. I'm away at wedding on the Saturday though, so will the GN! My money is on Northen Alliance e/w (40/1 seems massive to me), but I like the look of Oscar Time and Arbor Supreme as well.

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frankie

frankie

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OK I am back in my flat, but my horse tipping the last 3 weeks has been dismal, so here are my Aintree first day, horses to avoid.

 

2.00 Carlito Brigante

2.30 Zarkandar looks the one to beat, but at the odds is prohibitive, so a few quid on Launchpad at a big price will be my tentative choice.

3.05 Caroles Legacy

3.40 Fort View - Mount Benger (EW)

4.15 Mamlook

4.50 Royal Charm

5.25 Pateese

 

Good luck all, lets hope for some winners.

 

Frankie

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chrisobee

chrisobee

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IF Big Bucks, Zarkander and Denman justify their favourites tags no doubt there will a lot of bookies screaming they are broke today !

Of course these are 3 very classy horses and should win. However, slightly worrying Paul Nicholls has stated Big Buck's and Zarkandar have both had health scares in the run-up to their respective races.

While stressing both issues were 'minor', Nicholls said Big Buck's was off his food on Monday and Tuesday, although blood tests showed nothing amiss, while Triumph Hurdle hero Zarkandar has had a mouth abscess.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/racing/article-1374152/Nicholls-hurdling-duo-Big-Bucks-Zarkandar-pass-late-tests.html

 

So with no real conviction my stabs in a very dim light ( ie my brain ) are :

 

2.00 Big Bucks/ Carlito Brigante the ew/ without favourite market pick for me.

2.30 Zarkander / Kumbeshwar ew - Hard to ignore the record of Alan King and Robert Thornton here so Kumbeshwar looks good for a place at least, 10/1 generally. Grandouet should go well for Nicky Henderson

3.05 Denman/Carole's Legacy - A. P. McCoy/ Nicky Henderson partnership a big positive for Carole's Legacy. However, even in a 6 runner field I am struggling and Punchestowns winning would be no surpise at all but I will swerve him nonetheless !

3.40 Turko/ Mr Apple's ew This is now getting very, very worrying since not only am I pretty much on the same page as Frankie I am totally in agreement with Cato so far, we are doomed :scared:

4.15 Leo's Lucky Star ew/Mamlook ew/Sports Line : I really like the chances of Mamlook who looks well weighted but since this is yet another Frankie tip I will throw probable favourite Leo's Lucky Star and Sports Line into the mix though last time out winner Oiseau De Nuit is another to consider. Interesting that Paul Nicholls has a dire record in this race so I'm definitely swerving Woolcombe Folly and Tchico Plos.

4.50 : Medermit/Royal Charm ( oh flip ANOTHER Frankie pick !) : Of course Medermit was only 4th at Cheltenham but had previously beaten Captain Chris and looks the obvious form pick, Royal Charm looks the main danger.

5.25 : Get Me out Of Here ( could be apt come this race !) ew / Russian War ew/ Patesse ew A pin stickers delight but both McCoy and Jonjo O'Neill tend to do well at Aintree so a tentative, very tentative pick along with Russian War and I might have guessed ANOTHER Frankie pick with the consistent Patesse.

 

Edit : Oh my days, I now see Sir Cato has opted for Sports Line and Royal Charm also. At least I swerved, though narrowly, Sire Collonges :rolleyes:

Edited by chrisobee
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SuperMikey

SuperMikey

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Got these on an EW bet each:

 

Hello Bud - 25/1

Niche Market - 20/1

Big Fella Thanks - 14/1

Ballabriggs - 14/1

The Midnight Club - 9/1

 

Hopefully I might make a bit of money this year as opposed to just losing it.

Edited by SuperMikey
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frankie

frankie

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OK my run of defeats is not really funny any more :-). Still on to Friday and some smallish fields to start, here are my lays if you want to win, or backs if you fancy losing some cash :-)

 

2.00 I like A Media Luz, but his record is not great for a beast of such obvious potential, so I will back the lightly raced and potentially very useful Topolski

2.30 Quito De La Roque has done its winning on soft ground but I like the look of his second to Boston Angel, and if he handles the ground this could go to the Irish.

3.05 A really tricky contest but Nicholls showed, with the exception of Denman that he is in good form and Master Minded despite his last run, is too big a price to ignore

3.40 A huge race but some value can be had, I have to go for Frankie Figg, he loves these fences and although he falls quite often his jumping can be impeccable, at a huge price I have picked Bible Lord, he had real potential when younger and has lost his way of late, but if finding a glimmer of his old self he may run into a place.

4.15 Mossley and Sparky May have obvious chances, but I like the look of Handy Andy, he was pulled out of a much easier race earlier this week, he is a bit of an unknown but has the potential and likely improvement to take this.

4.50 The pin has landed on the lightly raced Swingkeel, he was a decent horse on the flat and is improving steadily for racing over the jumps.

5.20 If I have any money left by now, the loose change will go on Dazzling Suzie. Now a non runner so Thynetocatcher is my new selection

 

Good luck all

 

Frankie

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chrisobee

chrisobee

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A winner or two from the forumites but we have seen better days...too many of the same selections I feel :-)

 

Frankie

 

:lol:

 

Quite probably, fortunately no one jinxed Kumbeshwar and more importantly Russian War in the finale ! It was bizarre as I had my selections ready to post but wanted to add a few pieces of info. When I started posting I soon realised I was duplicating several of yours Frankie and also Cato. By the time I had finished Cato had gone for Sports Line and Royal Charm as well lol I'm not sure who should apologise to who in truth but since I'm quite happy I shall not bother !!

 

Good luck today all, I will draft my post and then just copy it straight on here and hope I swerve most of the other picks, I did avoid noticing what has been selected already which helps :rolleyes:

 

Chris

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chrisobee

chrisobee

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2.00 Sire De Grugy @ 9/2/ Topolski @ 5/1 : Sire De Grugy bypassed Cheltenham and though this looks a very open race he looks very progressive. Topolski also merits serious consideration. Best of the rest could be A Media Luz who will appreciate the sharper track but needs to settle better though at 7/8-1 may be worth a small ew punt.

 

2.30 Wayward Prince @ 11/4/ Quito De La Rouge @ 4/1: With a current best book of 102% there should be value here. It seems to lie with the top 2 in the betting. I would definitely prefer Quito De Rouge if there was more cut in the ground, the faster ground might just favour Wayward Prince with the obvious benefit of having McCoy on board.

 

3.05 Alberta’s Run @ 7/2 /Kalahari King @9/2 Phew, I would not risk even a free bet on this race ! Master Minded, Alberta’s Run, Somersby, Kalahari King all have solid claims and not that much to chose between them in the betting. However, Alberta’s Run tends to come good at this time of year and was impressive winning at Cheltenham and won this race last year. I’d love to see Master Minded win but I fear his best days may be behind him, one time when I would be happy to be proved wrong. With that in mind I feel Kalahari King might be the main danger.

 

 

3.40 Frankie Figg ew @14/1 / Scotsirish ew @20/1/ Forizy Origny ew @33/1 : Even though my strongest bet of the day is that Frankie will be on Frankie Figg he looks overpriced at around 12/1. Unseated his rider last time out but arrives here fresh and if his jumping holds up looks a good ew bet at the very least. Both Mon Parrain and Dev are too short for me so at a decent price am also going to opt for Forizy Origny @ around 33/1. He jumps well and no logical reason I can see why he is 33/1 whilst Mon Parrain, another French import is around 5/1. Scotchirish is another not to be dismissed lightly, 20/1 looks a fair price.

 

 

4.15 Sparky May ew @ 11/2 / Indian Daudaie ew @ 20/1/ Saint Are ew @ 66/1: Ok, this race is not funny ! An old friend in Sparky May is amongst the

favoured runners but in truth I think any one of the runners could win this. However, Sparky May looks the form choice to me and I would be disappointed if she doesn’t go close. Indian Daudaie will need to find something to get involved but still makes some appeal @ 20/1.I simply cannot ignore Saint Are ( SJ are currently 80/1) so that gives me 3 though I might need 6-8 to even find a placed horse ! Court in Motion should appreciate conditions.

 

4.50 Ringaroses ew @9/1 / Swingkeel ew @ 12/1 Ringaroses was the winner of this race last year on similar ground with the same weight, has won seven of his twenty races and with trainer Jonjo O'Neill having saddled four of the last nine winners of this event, Tony McCoy's mount must be on the shortlist. Swingkeel is very unexposed and though making his handicap debut could well be a very smart horse. That said another very trappy race.

 

5.25 Tante Sissi @9/2 / Keyaza ew@ 14/1 As with the finale yesterday this looks hopeless and having somehow dug out Russian War yesterday it is hard to imagine I can be so lucky again ! One of the few hints is that 4 year olds tend to do well in this race which gives a very short list of 2 and on that basis I’m opting for those 2 with Tante Sissi the likely favourite. Keyaza is fitted with cheekpieces today but is being backed so those are my final 2 speculative selections.

 

Ok, time to copy and paste on to the forum and hope, in fact pray, Frankie and Sir Cato don’t jinx me again . Good luck all, I think we might need it but come what may at 5.30 pm I bet the sun will still be shining !

 

Chris

PS One selection at Wolverhampton

8.15 Could It Be Magic @5/1

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frankie

frankie

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4.15 [/color] Sparky May ew @ 11/2 / Indian Daudaie ew @ 20/1/ Saint Are ew @ 66/1: Ok, this race is not funny ! An old friend in Sparky May is amongst the

favoured runners but in truth I think any one of the runners could win this. However, Sparky May looks the form choice to me and I would be disappointed if she doesn’t go close. Indian Daudaie will need to find something to get involved but still makes some appeal @ 20/1.I simply cannot ignore Saint Are ( SJ are currently 80/1) so that gives me 3 though I might need 6-8 to even find a placed horse ! Court in Motion should appreciate conditions.

 

Woow Saint Are, I must admit Chris I did back this but was unconvinced it would win so didnt post:

 

Bet Winnings 16:15 JOHN SMITH SEFTON NOVICE H'DLE 3m 1/2f - Saint Are @ 41.00 (GP) (Win) £205.00

 

Had a fiver wit PaddyPower at 40/1 as you can see...

 

First 3 winners as well, my luck seems to be turning :-)

 

Frankie

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chrisobee

chrisobee

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Easy to lose mine as Chris seems to be copying them this week :-)

 

Frankie

 

Do you really think I would select anything I knew you had selected :rolleyes:

Thankfully you didn't post Saint Are otherwise doubtless I would have just blindly followed you on that one as well :lol:

 

Chris

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chrisobee

chrisobee

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As the luck is in Chris I am going to double up Could it be Magic with Black Coffee in the race after :-)

 

Frankie

 

Unfortunately Could It Be Magic 2nd @9/2. At least I went win/place on TE so no harm done and my 6th winning day in a row, I might just sit back and watch on Saturday !

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revolution saint

revolution saint

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I know nothing about horses but tend to try and follow a few rules - don't bet on the favourite, go for something with stamina and rarely falls. I went with paddy power as I got £20 free so I've gone for:

Ballabriggs - £5 E/W @ 14/1

West End Rocker - £2 E/W @ 33/1

Golden Kite - £3 E/W @ 66/1

 

That's my initial £20 gone so got the free £20 still to use. Might have a punt on something to win or just stick to football and boxing which I know better.

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chrisobee

chrisobee

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I know nothing about horses but tend to try and follow a few rules - don't bet on the favourite, go for something with stamina and rarely falls. I went with paddy power as I got £20 free so I've gone for:

Ballabriggs - £5 E/W @ 14/1

West End Rocker - £2 E/W @ 33/1

Golden Kite - £3 E/W @ 66/1

 

That's my initial £20 gone so got the free £20 still to use. Might have a punt on something to win or just stick to football and boxing which I know better.

 

Fair to say you are therefore in the right place ;)

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revolution saint

revolution saint

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Fair to say you are therefore in the right place ;)

 

Yep, total mystery to me. What would be your tip then? This twenty quid is burning a hole in my pocket.

 

A few years ago I did have a successful stint on betting on boxing - got a 1st round KO for Calzaghe, Rachman knocking out Lewis and Barrera beating Hamed. I should probably stick with that.

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chrisobee

chrisobee

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Yep, total mystery to me. What would be your tip then? This twenty quid is burning a hole in my pocket.

 

A few years ago I did have a successful stint on betting on boxing - got a 1st round KO for Calzaghe, Rachman knocking out Lewis and Barrera beating Hamed. I should probably stick with that.

 

Yes, stick with boxing sounds good ! Swerving Aintree altogether Dubawi Gold at Lingfield in the 3.00 might well win but is short enough at around 6/4, at a best priced 10/1 Burj Alzain looks the ew shout. At Thirsk in the 1.35 Pelmanism is a nice horse but now at around 7/2 I would say that is short enough.

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sambosa75

sambosa75

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Me and the Mrs have studied the form guide, been tracking the weather in Aintree for the past fortnite and studied the re runs of the last 5 nationals in slow motion. We naturally then just decided to pick the gigis we liked the names of.

 

The Midnight Club

Majestic Concorde

Big Fella Thanks

Grand Slam Hero

 

There has to be at least 2 of those that will finish in the top 4!!

 

Got a cheeky £20 bonus best from Corals as well so went for an acca on Man Utd, Chelsea, QPR and Brighton wins today.

 

Bring on the money!!!

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SNSUN

SNSUN

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Fontwell boys I fancy Bishops Baby in the first and Red Laird in the last...if nothing else that narrows the choices down for you :-)

 

Frankie

 

Only just saw this and Red Laird was a non-runner.

 

Didn't do so well in the first six races, an each way on Minneapolis was all I had to show for my day, so went all out in the last race with a massive (for me anyway) ten quid to win on Easement which I got for 8/1, although it started the race at sixes, and it won! I was up 40 quid on the whole day, and the course, weather and women were lovely.

 

Using my profit on the National today. Got The Midnight Club to win, and e/w on Oscar Time and Calgary Bay.

Edited by SNSUN
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