Ten to go - how many points will we need?

[brmbrm]

So 7 wins from our final 8 would guarantee promotion now. I reckon 5 will in reality do it though.

 

Here's hoping that Peterborough and Huddersfield draw on saturday!

 

here's hoping Peterborough win.....

[EBS1980]

Still think it's better for them both to drop 2 points than only one team drop 3.

[SaintBobby]

We now need about 14 points from our remaining eight games.

 

It would be staggering if we needed more than this. And utterly staggering if we needed much more.

 

How anyone could have reached the conclusion that we needed 28 points from our last ten games bewilders me. It's just basic innumeracy.

 

Even now, the mathematically certain "ask" has fallen to 26 (of which we have collected six), and this certain threshold falls further as and when Huddersfield drop more points.

 

The odds, by the way, of Huddersfield winning all their remaining 6 games is approximately 100/1. Not impossible, but deeply, deeply unlikely. The further they fall from this, the easier our target.

 

We shouldn't completely lose sight of Posh. If they win all their remaining games (probably about 80/1) we would still need 17 points - maybe 18 - to stay ahead of them.

 

But the very strong likelihood now is that 14 points will do it. 15 or 16 will make it a near certainty. 17+ and a miracle would be needed to stop us.

 

This is reflected in the available odds from any bookmaker.

[SaintBobby]

Should add that I've just put £100 on at 1.25 (same as 1/4) on betfair on Saints being promoted.

 

This is a very attractive bet and some money is still available at those odds.

 

Snap them up.

[Draino76]

Should add that I've just put £100 on at 1.25 (same as 1/4) on betfair on Saints being promoted.

 

This is a very attractive bet and some money is still available at those odds.

 

Snap them up.

 

No value there. Also your punting money is locked in for a month or so.

[SaintBobby]

No value there. Also your punting money is locked in for a month or so.

 

It's offering a better rate of return than my savings account at Barclays, which I think pays about 0.2% a month.

 

If I make a 25% return in a month, I'm happy.

 

I'd say our chances or promotion are now about 1/6, so 1/4 is a very attractive bet. I snapped up all the available bets at 1.33 and lower.

 

The money isn't locked on betfair, of course, as you can lay it off at any time.

[Matthew Le God]

Still think it's better for them both to drop 2 points than only one team drop 3.

 

We aren't chasing Peterborough, Saints have more points and two games in hand on them. Thus I would prefer a Peterborough win on Saturday. Second best option, a draw. Even the last option of a Huddersfield win isn't disastrous, as it has the benefit of turning a three horse race into a two horse race.

Edited 5 April, 2011 by Matthew Le God

[SaintBobby]

We aren't chasing Peterborough, Saints have more points and two games in hand on them. Thus I would prefer a Peterborough win on Saturday. Second best option, a draw. Even the last option of a Huddersfield win isn't disastrous, as it has the benefit of turning a three horse race into a two horse race.

 

I think, on balance, you're right.

 

The only issue is that Huddersfield have a much more difficult final six games. So, although the "spot price" is that it looks like they are the bigger threat to 2nd place, were Posh to win o9n Saturday, it puts them firmly back in play.

 

So, my instinct was to be a coward and hope for a draw.

 

Overall, though, a Posh win puts our destiny so firmly in our own hands that I think you're right.

[jjsaint]

I would like Huddersfield and Peterborough to field ineligble players against each other and incur points penalties.

[alpine_saint]

We now need about 14 points from our remaining eight games.

 

It would be staggering if we needed more than this. And utterly staggering if we needed much more.

 

How anyone could have reached the conclusion that we needed 28 points from our last ten games bewilders me. It's just basic innumeracy.

 

Even now, the mathematically certain "ask" has fallen to 26 (of which we have collected six), and this certain threshold falls further as and when Huddersfield drop more points.

 

The odds, by the way, of Huddersfield winning all their remaining 6 games is approximately 100/1. Not impossible, but deeply, deeply unlikely. The further they fall from this, the easier our target.

 

We shouldn't completely lose sight of Posh. If they win all their remaining games (probably about 80/1) we would still need 17 points - maybe 18 - to stay ahead of them.

 

But the very strong likelihood now is that 14 points will do it. 15 or 16 will make it a near certainty. 17+ and a miracle would be needed to stop us.

 

This is reflected in the available odds from any bookmaker.

 

I wrote 28 a few games ago simply on gut instinct. NickG at that time corrected me that 27 was required to guarantee 2nd place under all circumstances (other teams results). So without calculating, I was pretty close.

 

1pt out. Big deal.

 

Of course the "guaranteed number" has gone down over the last couple of weeks as the other teams have got results with less than 100% points tally.

 

And you judge others for "innumeracy" ????

[NickG]

still reckon 23/24 should be plenty. A peterborough/hudds draw would mean we would only needed 21 to beat Peterborough and 23 Hudds max.

[alpine_saint]

still reckon 23/24 should be plenty. A peterborough/hudds draw would mean we would only needed 21 to beat Peterborough and 23 Hudds max.

 

So, not so cock-sure about 20pts anymore then ?

[NickG]

if you were / are still confident that you will be closer than the loony prediction the offer of a friendly wager still stands

[NickG]

So, not so cock-sure about 20pts anymore then ?

 

I never predicted 20. I said I reckon 23/24 should be plenty (didn't reckon 20 a bad shout).

 

Some predicted 20, you said they were loons and you predicted 28.

 

I gave some rationale as to why you were out of order calling them loons and their prediction had some merit.

 

I offered you a friendly charity bet that you would not be closer to the eventual needed total than the loons.

 

I still wouldn't be surprised if those, more optimistic than me, confident 20 would do it, end up being right - hence going from saying we need 23/24 to saying reckon it should be plenty!

[NickG]

Alps....?

 

Let me know what your chosen charity is

[shurlock]

A maximum of 15 points should be enough to go up, perhaps even 14 with our superior goal difference. Our home games are probable bankers, leaving us needing 2 wins from 5 on the road.

[SaintBobby]

I wrote 28 a few games ago simply on gut instinct. NickG at that time corrected me that 27 was required to guarantee 2nd place under all circumstances (other teams results). So without calculating, I was pretty close.

 

1pt out. Big deal.

 

Of course the "guaranteed number" has gone down over the last couple of weeks as the other teams have got results with less than 100% points tally.

 

And you judge others for "innumeracy" ????

 

But that's an extraordinary innumerate way of looking at it.

 

At the start of the season, you'd need 136 points to guarantee becoming champions - and, I think, 131 points to guarantee automatic promotion.

 

You'd also need 70 points to guarantee you weren't relegated.

 

But, clearly, these numbers fall almost as soon as the season starts. In reality, you're going to need c.90 points to win the league, c.48 points to stay up etc.

 

The same thing happens over the last ten games. The number of points needed to guarantee a certain outcome will almost certainly be measurably higher than the number of points you need to achieve a certain outcome.

 

I think I'm correct in saying (but haven't double checked the thread, so apols in advance if I'm wrong), that with ten games to go, your view was that we would need 28 points to achieve promotion and those who were saying it could be achieved with 20 points were "loons".

 

Again, I'd need to double check, but I think your 28 points target was possibly even over and beyond what was needed to guarantee promotion. (just noted - you concede this above)

 

It seems to me the "loons" (those who predicted 20 points needed with ten games left) remain well on course for being right. Your own 28 point prediction has, of course, been blown apart within just two games.

 

I'll leave others to judge who is blessed with good numeracy skills and who isn't.

Edited 6 April, 2011 by SaintBobby

[Professor]

Thanks for the entertainment chaps.

 

Back to the points needed. If Hudders have 73 points and 6 games to play that looks like a max of 91 points. Saint Bobby, with his love of betting, called the chances of them winning those 6 games 100/1, deeply unlikely and a miracle. True Hudders have 3 hard games in the run in but their opponents may have less to play for. Brighton managed 8 wins on the trot and Saints have just done 6 wins out of 7, so 91 for Hudders has to be the assumption until it cannot be. Saints on 71 points and superior goal difference makes 91 points our current target, hence the 20 points from here that has been mentioned. 20 points from 8 games, from a possible 24, so its still a hard task. It may get easier depending on how results go, but we can only know that as match days pass, which is why Adkins can only say we have to take one game at a time.

 

Peterborough's maximum points total is currently 88, and again the GD means we only have to equal them to beat them. So 17 points from 8 games to stay ahead of The Posh.

 

How likely is it that Saints can achieve 20 points? It needs 7 wins, or 6 wins and 2 draws. 5 wins is not enough. But for 17 points, 5 wins will do with 2 draws and a defeat. On that basis it must be better that Posh beat Hudders as that reduces our target from 20 to 17. A draw would reduce the target to 18 points, but a win by Hudders leaves us still looking at 20. If other results in future weeks reduce the target that would be a bonus, but can't be counted on.

[SaintBobby]

Thanks for the entertainment chaps.

 

Back to the points needed. If Hudders have 73 points and 6 games to play that looks like a max of 91 points. Saint Bobby, with his love of betting, called the chances of them winning those 6 games 100/1, deeply unlikely and a miracle. True Hudders have 3 hard games in the run in but their opponents may have less to play for. Brighton managed 8 wins on the trot and Saints have just done 6 wins out of 7, so 91 for Hudders has to be the assumption until it cannot be. Saints on 71 points and superior goal difference makes 91 points our current target, hence the 20 points from here that has been mentioned. 20 points from 8 games, from a possible 24, so its still a hard task. It may get easier depending on how results go, but we can only know that as match days pass, which is why Adkins can only say we have to take one game at a time.

 

Peterborough's maximum points total is currently 88, and again the GD means we only have to equal them to beat them. So 17 points from 8 games to stay ahead of The Posh.

 

How likely is it that Saints can achieve 20 points? It needs 7 wins, or 6 wins and 2 draws. 5 wins is not enough. But for 17 points, 5 wins will do with 2 draws and a defeat. On that basis it must be better that Posh beat Hudders as that reduces our target from 20 to 17. A draw would reduce the target to 18 points, but a win by Hudders leaves us still looking at 20. If other results in future weeks reduce the target that would be a bonus, but can't be counted on.

 

To assume that Huddersfield will win their next 6 games is one hell of an assumption!

 

My suggested odds of 100/1 were slightly back-of-fag-packet, but won't be far off. It's definitely a long, long shot, and 50/1 at best.

 

If you seriously think they will win every game - or even that it's a fairish chance - put £50 on them to beat Peterborough and then keep putting your winnings on Huddersfield for each of their next five games. If Huddersfield end up on 91 points, you'll end up with several thousand pounds in your back pocket (can't be @rsed to do the maths - but somewhere between 3K and 6K)

[Bakovnetski]

20 points is win 6 draw 2 (Brighton + Rochdale or Orient). Can you see us doing better? I would like to think so but realistically 91 points could be the limit.

[SaintBobby]

Thanks for the entertainment chaps.

 

Back to the points needed. If Hudders have 73 points and 6 games to play that looks like a max of 91 points. Saint Bobby, with his love of betting, called the chances of them winning those 6 games 100/1, deeply unlikely and a miracle. True Hudders have 3 hard games in the run in but their opponents may have less to play for. Brighton managed 8 wins on the trot and Saints have just done 6 wins out of 7, so 91 for Hudders has to be the assumption until it cannot be. Saints on 71 points and superior goal difference makes 91 points our current target, hence the 20 points from here that has been mentioned. 20 points from 8 games, from a possible 24, so its still a hard task. It may get easier depending on how results go, but we can only know that as match days pass, which is why Adkins can only say we have to take one game at a time.

 

Peterborough's maximum points total is currently 88, and again the GD means we only have to equal them to beat them. So 17 points from 8 games to stay ahead of The Posh.

 

How likely is it that Saints can achieve 20 points? It needs 7 wins, or 6 wins and 2 draws. 5 wins is not enough. But for 17 points, 5 wins will do with 2 draws and a defeat. On that basis it must be better that Posh beat Hudders as that reduces our target from 20 to 17. A draw would reduce the target to 18 points, but a win by Hudders leaves us still looking at 20. If other results in future weeks reduce the target that would be a bonus, but can't be counted on.

 

It very probably is. Not certain, of course...but if we win 5 and lose 3 of our remaining 8 games, we are very, very likely to be promoted.

[Trader]

I think 86pts or possibly 85 will see us promoted - possibly on goal difference.

[toofarnorth]

Thanks for the entertainment chaps.

 

Back to the points needed. If Hudders have 73 points and 6 games to play that looks like a max of 91 points. Saint Bobby, with his love of betting, called the chances of them winning those 6 games 100/1, deeply unlikely and a miracle. True Hudders have 3 hard games in the run in but their opponents may have less to play for. Brighton managed 8 wins on the trot and Saints have just done 6 wins out of 7, so 91 for Hudders has to be the assumption until it cannot be. Saints on 71 points and superior goal difference makes 91 points our current target, hence the 20 points from here that has been mentioned. 20 points from 8 games, from a possible 24, so its still a hard task. It may get easier depending on how results go, but we can only know that as match days pass, which is why Adkins can only say we have to take one game at a time.

 

Peterborough's maximum points total is currently 88, and again the GD means we only have to equal them to beat them. So 17 points from 8 games to stay ahead of The Posh.

 

How likely is it that Saints can achieve 20 points? It needs 7 wins, or 6 wins and 2 draws. 5 wins is not enough. But for 17 points, 5 wins will do with 2 draws and a defeat. On that basis it must be better that Posh beat Hudders as that reduces our target from 20 to 17. A draw would reduce the target to 18 points, but a win by Hudders leaves us still looking at 20. If other results in future weeks reduce the target that would be a bonus, but can't be counted on.

 

Good argument for supporting Posh on Saturday. Just noticed posh do still have to play bith Orient and Rochdale away so like us they have tough games ahead. Huddesfields are tougher though.

[SaintBobby]

Here's the latest missive from my mathematical father:

 

"I have a few disagreements with your calculations, but agree your £250 investment seems to be a good bet.

 

 

 

If we still see Southampton's target as 20 points from last ten games, they are now well on track to achieve this. 14 points from the remaining 8 games only requires 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats. This seems very realistic - unless injuries become a problem (have they so far?). If you achieve this, the only two teams that statistically now stand any chance of catching you are Huddersfield and Peterborough. In my view Peterborough have the tougher run in - away games against three of the top eight teams (Huddersfield, Leyton Orient and Rochdale) as well as a home game against Bournemouth. In order to catch you on 85 points, they would need to win at least five of their final six games, and at least draw the remaining one.

 

So I clearly see Huddersield as the bigger threat. They have a somewhat easier run in and only need 12 points from 6 games to get to 85 points. Much easier – 4 wins and 2 defeats will suffice. So, unless you know something I don’t, I see little justification for you putting Huddersfield finishing below Peterborough in the table. I feel a Peterborough win against Huddersfield on Saturday is in your best interests, a draw OK, but a Huddersfield win highly undesirable. A defeat for you against Leyton Orient could be taken in your stride, a draw would be fine, and a win would again shorten your odds of promotion further.

 

So my revised probabilities of finishing second are now

Southampton 75%

Huddersfield 20%

Peterborough 5%

 

So, with the same ‘play off’ calculation, Southampton's probability of promotion today is

0.75 + 0.35 x 0.33 = 0.87

which equates to odds of about 1/6. So if you can get 1/4, it looks a good bet.

 

Recalculations will be required on Saturday!"

[alpine_saint]

Recalculations will be required on Saturday!"

 

Wow. Dont know how I shall drag myself through the intervening days.....

[SaintBobby]

Wow. Dont know how I shall drag myself through the intervening days.....

 

 

Innumerately, at a guess.

[SaintBobby]

Wow. Dont know how I shall drag myself through the intervening days.....

 

The number of intervening days is 3.

 

Well, about 3.1 until full time whistle on Saturday.

 

HTH.

[hutch]

I prefer to look at it from this angle:

 

I know it makes me a loon, but I still think Saints will end up with 86 points (4xW, 3xD & 1xL). I also think it's unlikely either Udders or Posh will overhaul our GD.

 

If I'm right, that means that either Udders or Posh need to get to 87 to push us into 3rd spot. They've both got 6 games left - max. 18 points. Udders have 73 so they need another 14. Posh have 70 so they need another 17.

 

That means that Udders can only afford to drop 4 points in their last 6 games. Posh can only drop 1 (but as you can't actually drop 1, Posh have to win ALL their remaining games). Saints can drop 9 points from their last 8 games.

 

That means that all Saints have to do is carry on as we are, picking up an average of 2 points a game. Udders are clearly a bigger threat than Posh, so for me it's a Posh win on Saturday. If that happens, then as long as we keep picking up the points at 2 a game, either Posh or Udders will have to win all their remaining games to beat us.

 

It's as simple as that.

[thefunkygibbons]

Let's just win all our remaining games just to be sure

[sandwichsaint]

For those with too much time on their hands how quickly could we get to auto promotion if the other results keep going our way?

 

Guessing about 4 games could do it?

 

Balls to this 'a draw would be good on Saturday' stuff ... let's keep this bus rolling and get the job done asap.

[SaintBobby]

Let's just win all our remaining games just to be sure

 

Amen to that.

 

It wld be possible to even win the division if we did.

 

I don't think this is a thread though about whetehr people want to see Saints win all our remaining games.

 

It's really a discussion about how badly we can do and still get promoted.

[alpine_saint]

Let's just win all our remaining games just to be sure

 

Gosh. How radical

[NickG]

Let's just win all our remaining games just to be sure

 

hoping for a boring end of season - just to celebrate, few more wins, others drops a few points and get it sorted!

[Thedelldays]

I think 12 more points MAX from the last 7 will do it...

 

that is taking into account hudders will lose one and win the rest and posh will win their last 5 games.....

 

we have 21 points up for grabs.......that is a hell of a margin......7 points.!!!!

[beatlesaint]

I think 12 more points MAX from the last 7 will do it...

 

that is taking into account hudders will lose one and win the rest and posh will win their last 5 games.....

 

we have 21 points up for grabs.......that is a hell of a margin......7 points.!!!!

 

I just worked that out too !

4 wins and possibly a draw should be enough.......

[Lord Duckhunter]

I reckon 86 points will do, that's 4 wins. Surely we cant mess that up?

[NickG]

Ten to go and I think we will need 22 points to get 2nd place.

 

7 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats.

 

 

What do others think will be needed?

 

28.

 

People writing 20 points are loons.

 

Back then it was true within one point. 27 were needed to guarantee promotion.

 

Easy to be smug after-the-fact.

 

 

This thread was when we were on 65 with ten to go. So is Alps right to be smug with his 28, or will the loons be anywhere close...???

 

 

Max we need to beat teams if they win every game

 

Huddersfield ....24

Peterborugh ....21

 

 

If they continue their recent form for rest of season

 

Huddersfield 20

Peterborough 15

 

If they continue their season form for the rest of the season

 

Huddersfield 18

Peterborough 15

 

So, in conclusion, and this may surprise some, Alpine is not going to be closer to what proves a realistic figure than the loons.

 

In fact the loons may end up being spot on.

Edited 10 April, 2011 by NickG

[alpine_saint]

This thread was when we were on 65 with ten to go. So is Alps right to be smug with his 28, or will the loons be anywhere close...

 

 

Max we need to beat teams if they win ever game

 

Huddersfield ....24

Peterborugh ....21

 

 

If they continue their recent form for rest of season

 

Huddersfield 20

Peterborough 15

 

If they continue their season form for the rest of the season

 

Huddersfield 18

Peterborough 15

 

So, in conclusion, and this may surprise some, Alpine is not going to be closer to what proves a realistic figure than the loons.

 

In fact the loons may end up being spot on.

 

Yep, you said it yourself. "may end up". Yet you are doing your damnedest to discredit my post from back then and actually deliberately missing the point of what I wrote - that 28points was needed to guarantee promotion -even though it was only one point out.

 

Very easy to be smug and sneering with the benefit of 3 or 4 extra results in...

[NickG]

maybe I shouldn't pick on you and your errors in this way, just grates when there is a reasoned and fair debate -with people putting informed rational views and you jump in calling them loons when they are actually talking more sense. Made my point and maybe you could apologise to them for your error? End of the day, you said 28, called anyone saying 20 a loon. Looks like 18-24 will be proven to be the most insightful prediction (mmm who went for that?? )

 

Shame you didn't want to back up your initial post with the charity bet I kept offering and you kept hiding from.

 

Will leave it now.

[KK the 2nd]

Really down to us to f*ck it up.

Latest betting to come second

w/o Brighton

Southampton 1.13

Huddersfield 7

Peterborough 21

MK Dons 251

So looking good according to the bookies ...

 

... though might be worth a saver on Huddersfield

[stockbridge_saint]

where are getting those odds? i might put a bit of money on peterborough and huddersfield just to cheer me up if what won't happen happens

[NickG]

just done predictor - we go into Brentford away needing a draw to clinch it!

[SaintBobby]

Yep, you said it yourself. "may end up". Yet you are doing your damnedest to discredit my post from back then and actually deliberately missing the point of what I wrote - that 28points was needed to guarantee promotion -even though it was only one point out.

 

Very easy to be smug and sneering with the benefit of 3 or 4 extra results in...

 

I don't think anyone is surprised that you overstated the number of points we needed.

 

Do you still think we're likely only to be in the play-offs?

[KK the 2nd]

where are getting those odds? i might put a bit of money on peterborough and huddersfield just to cheer me up if what won't happen happens

Bet365 - Market - Betting w/o Brighton. I agree it is to tempting cover over. Might seem like tainted money if it did come off though.

[Red and White Army]

28.

 

People writing 20 points are loons.

 

You are a complete idiot. You can't even do simple maths. Why do you bother?

[NickG]

This thread was when we were on 65 with ten to go. So is Alps right to be smug with his 28, or will the loons be anywhere close...???

 

 

Max we need to beat teams if they win every game

 

Huddersfield ....24

Peterborugh ....21

 

 

If they continue their recent form for rest of season

 

Huddersfield 20

Peterborough 15

 

If they continue their season form for the rest of the season

 

Huddersfield 18

Peterborough 15

 

So, in conclusion, and this may surprise some, Alpine is not going to be closer to what proves a realistic figure than the loons.

 

In fact the loons may end up being spot on.

 

good thing is, we are now three games into that and have earnt 9 points. Leaving the max needed 15 from 7 games (including 3 home fixtures) or 11 from 7 if Huddersfield continue their good current form.

[SaintBobby]

Yep, you said it yourself. "may end up". Yet you are doing your damnedest to discredit my post from back then and actually deliberately missing the point of what I wrote - that 28points was needed to guarantee promotion -even though it was only one point out.

 

Very easy to be smug and sneering with the benefit of 3 or 4 extra results in...

 

But as pointed out before, that's the equivalent of saying in early August, "we need 137 points to guarantee winning the league, anyone who says we only need 95 is a loon"

 

It's not just that you were so wrong that was amazing...it was the complete certainty and extremity with which you expressed your wrongness...

[NickG]

But as pointed out before, that's the equivalent of saying in early August, "we need 137 points to guarantee winning the league, anyone who says we only need 95 is a loon"

 

It's not just that you were so wrong that was amazing...it was the complete certainty and extremity with which you expressed your wrongness...

 

LOL! But shouldn't be amazed by him!

[benjii]

To be honest, we've done quite well lately but with our current injuries I think we should just accept that second is but a pipe-dream and concentrate on the play-offs.

[NickG]

To be honest, we've done quite well lately but with our current injuries I think we should just accept that second is but a pipe-dream and concentrate on the play-offs.

 

agree, wise man stated a few weeks ago that it was an impossible task for us to get into 2nd and hold it due to our lack of consistency, and that play off is the best we can expect.