Window Cleaner Posted 26 March, 2011 Share Posted 26 March, 2011 would only need 83 with that - another 18 from 10 - which would be a drop in form for Adkins since he arrived Still we want to get as many points as possible so that when people look at the tables in years to come it doesn't appear that we just scraped up because all the rest were crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobM Posted 26 March, 2011 Share Posted 26 March, 2011 Still we want to get as many points as possible so that when people look at the tables in years to come it doesn't appear that we just scraped up because all the rest were crap. It could seem like we won promotion by collecting tokens on the back of Frosties for all I care, so long as we go up. I'd much rather scrape up than fight with style, flair and passion but end up staying in L1. Don't get me wrong, I want to see entertaining, attractive football with loads of goals, lots of flair from a team that look like world beaters. But all of that comes second to success at the moment. When we're back as an established Premiership team and our promotion chasing days are behind us, along with our relegation battling days, I'll flip that around and make the pretty stuff my No.1 priority Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
um pahars Posted 26 March, 2011 Share Posted 26 March, 2011 (edited) !!!!!!!!!! Edited 26 March, 2011 by um pahars rong fred Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WATERSIDEIFASAINT Posted 26 March, 2011 Share Posted 26 March, 2011 So why does everyone think we will lose at Orient and Brighton while Huddersfield will win at Brighton and Peterborough at Orient !? Huddersfield have also got MK Dons away aswell as Peterborough at home.Tranmere away is no giveme either. I reckon both side will lose at least 2 games each with their run ins and probably draw another game I'd be very surprised if 83 points is not enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hamilton Saint Posted 26 March, 2011 Share Posted 26 March, 2011 Still we want to get as many points as possible so that when people look at the tables in years to come it doesn't appear that we just scraped up because all the rest were crap. We were one point better than Coventry in '65-'66, but were promoted to Division One; we were one point better than B.H.A. in '77-'78, and got promoted to Division One. I don't care what the margin is; just as long as we get promoted - even it's by GD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 26 March, 2011 Share Posted 26 March, 2011 come on alps, be a good sport - put your money where your mouth is! Don't care how much, just agree to a reasonable donation if you are close than the loons! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingsbridge Saint Posted 27 March, 2011 Share Posted 27 March, 2011 I have just done the Predictor and i think we will need 91. That means we just need 26 more points from our last 10. So we can afford either one defeat or two draws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 27 March, 2011 Share Posted 27 March, 2011 I have just done the Predictor and i think we will need 91. That means we just need 26 more points from our last 10. So we can afford either one defeat or two draws. So you think Peterborough will win every game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 27 March, 2011 Share Posted 27 March, 2011 why is this still going on?? I thought it had been answered and we need 88, stop suggesting lower options you loons! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John B Posted 27 March, 2011 Share Posted 27 March, 2011 We were one point better than Coventry in '65-'66, but were promoted to Division One; we were one point better than B.H.A. in '77-'78, and got promoted to Division One. I don't care what the margin is; just as long as we get promoted - even it's by GD! I must admit I am still slightly upset that we did not go up as Champions in 1978 as we played a boring draw with Spurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alpine_saint Posted 27 March, 2011 Share Posted 27 March, 2011 why is this still going on?? I thought it had been answered and we need 88, stop suggesting lower options you loons! Obsessed. You have my pity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 27 March, 2011 Share Posted 27 March, 2011 up for the bet alpine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wadesmith Posted 27 March, 2011 Share Posted 27 March, 2011 I've just done BBC predictor and it says we need 32 points from our last 10 games!!?. Surely this can't be right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saint lard Posted 27 March, 2011 Share Posted 27 March, 2011 I've just done BBC predictor and it says we need 32 points from our last 10 games!!?. Surely this can't be right?[/quote Well yes,did'nt you know this is what the whole basis of our promotion is based on. This and other useless statistics and guesstamations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkish Posted 27 March, 2011 Share Posted 27 March, 2011 I've just done BBC predictor and it says we need 32 points from our last 10 games!!?. Surely this can't be right? when Hudderfield and Peterbourough currently in second and third two and one point ahead of us repectively only have 24 left to play for and one of these games is against each other, then no, it isn't right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graffito Posted 27 March, 2011 Share Posted 27 March, 2011 87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 27 March, 2011 Share Posted 27 March, 2011 I've just done BBC predictor and it says we need 32 points from our last 10 games!!?. Surely this can't be right? Most points achievable for each club and points we need to beat them (although realistically each should be one less due to our goal difference) Hudds 91 26 Posh 90 25 mk 86 21 cherries 86 21 orient 84 19 rochdale 84 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leicestersaint Posted 27 March, 2011 Share Posted 27 March, 2011 I think 85 points should do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpturner Posted 27 March, 2011 Share Posted 27 March, 2011 I've just done BBC predictor and it says we need 32 points from our last 10 games!!?Then we a fooked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint dyer Posted 27 March, 2011 Share Posted 27 March, 2011 just done the predictor. 86 points for us in second. posh on 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The boy done well Posted 27 March, 2011 Share Posted 27 March, 2011 just done the predictor. 86 points for us in second. posh on 85 That's what I came up with when I did it last week -- before Posh drew at Bristol Rovers which I had them down as winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PokingFun Posted 27 March, 2011 Share Posted 27 March, 2011 I think the REALISTIC best that P'boro and H'field can achieve will be 83 and 85 respectively given their run in and the fact that they also have to play each other. This means we would only need 20 points due to our superior goal difference and I think with our fixtures that is well achievable. Its distinctly possible that we could do it with less than 20 as the games the others have left are by no means easy. I would take our run-in and the extra games we have over the other two any day of the week. I fully expect us to get 21-22 points and finish second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PokingFun Posted 27 March, 2011 Share Posted 27 March, 2011 I've just done BBC predictor and it says we need 32 points from our last 10 games!!?. Surely this can't be right?[/quote Well yes,did'nt you know this is what the whole basis of our promotion is based on. This and other useless statistics and guesstamations. Statistics are hardly useless given many very big corporate organisations pay people a lot of money to make future predictions based upon historical trends. I would take a projection based on past performance as an objective measure every time over the nonsensical ramblings that many post on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjk Posted 27 March, 2011 Share Posted 27 March, 2011 We've just been promoted on the predictor and we only got 18 more points.4 wins and 6 draws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krissyboy31 Posted 27 March, 2011 Share Posted 27 March, 2011 6 wins, 3 draws and one defeat. 21 points making 86 in total. If that's not enough, then fair play to whoever betters it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teamsaint Posted 27 March, 2011 Share Posted 27 March, 2011 our last 3 lots of 10 games I think went like this: last 10: W6 D3 L1 previous :10 W6 D2 L2 10 before that: W6 D2 L2. that sort of points haul would give us a great chance, but 7 wins would surely be good enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 27 March, 2011 Share Posted 27 March, 2011 6 wins, 3 draws and one defeat. 21 points making 86 in total. If that's not enough, then fair play to whoever betters it. 86 was enough last season...and it was harder last season (apparently) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teamsaint Posted 27 March, 2011 Share Posted 27 March, 2011 last season Millwall had 65 points with 10 games to go. THey picked up 20 points but They missed out on automatic promotion by one point... but with 10 to go leeds already had 71 points. In the last 10 games of last season charlton picked up 18 points to finish on 84. Hudds picked up 22 to finish on 80(and were safe in the play offs before losing their last game) swindon picked up 16 to finish on 81 all of which proves that of the top few teams ,someone will have an outstanding run in the last 10 games, and most will pick up their seasons average. as posh have just had a great run, and hudds are unbeaten in 18, lets hope its us that has the great run in the last 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 27 March, 2011 Share Posted 27 March, 2011 great so Hudds got 22 in last 10! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjk Posted 27 March, 2011 Share Posted 27 March, 2011 Just done it again with 7 wins 2 defeats and a draw and we still came 2nd.We're going to do it surely aint we ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfc4prem Posted 27 March, 2011 Share Posted 27 March, 2011 So basically if Huddersfield repeat last season's form it'll be pretty tough for us/ not much room to slip up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PokingFun Posted 27 March, 2011 Share Posted 27 March, 2011 For me, so long as we win our home games then we should be fine as I'm very confident of picking up 2-3 wins away against the opposition we have to play. Its going to be tight though regardless so hold onto your hats boys and girls!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torrent Of Abuse Posted 31 March, 2011 Share Posted 31 March, 2011 Oh my. Did the predictor. Up on goal difference only ahead of Huddersfield with 86 points (21 of 30 points gained). Big games would appear to be: PBoro v Bournemouth (I had 2-1) Saints v MKdons (2-2) Huddersfield v PBoro (2-1) Brighton v Huddersfield (1-1) I had us wobbling in the two away games (Orient, Rochdale) but coming away with 4 points. Might be wishful thinking there - although I had us losing to Brighton and drawing at Brentford too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 31 March, 2011 Share Posted 31 March, 2011 This analysis is from my father (a mathematician), for what it's worth....I asked him if the rational thing to do was to bet against Saints being promoted given the current odds (we're 2/7 or 1/4 TO GO UP) "I have now completed a detailed statistical analysis of League 1, and my conclusion is that the odds currently being offered are the right ones. I see a reasonable target for Southampton's last ten games as 20 points. This is what you have managed to achieve this season if the first six matches (4 points from 6 games) are discounted. Looking at the remaining fixtures, six wins, two draws, and two defeats seems entirely achievable. If you make this total you are almost certain to finish second. Only four teams could possibly beat you. If we make the entirely reasonable assumption that you keep your superior goal difference, 1. Bournemouth would need 24 points from 8 games (ie to win them all), or 2. Milton Keynes would need 21 points from 7 games (ie to win them all), or 3. Peterborough would need 20 points from 8 games - this means winning at least 7 games, or winning six and losing none (and they still have away games away against three of the top eight teams - Huddersfield, Leyton Orient and Rochdale - as well as a home game against Bournemouth), or 4. Huddersfield would need 16 points from 7 games - this means winning at least five games, and losing not more than one (and they still have to play Peterborough at home, and Milton Keynes and Brighton away). So I expect that even if you got 18 or 19 points from the last 10 games you would still stand a reasonable chance of finishing second. So my assessment of the probabilities of finishing second are Southampton 65% Huddersfield 20% Peterborough 10% Milton Keynes 5% Bournemouth 0% If you don't finish second you are certain to be in the play offs, and I would think your chances are at least 1 in 3 of winning these if you go that route. So Southampton's probability of promotion, based on the situation as of today is 0.65 + 0.35 x 0.33 = 0.77 which equates exactly to odds of 2/7. So I see no reason to lay off your bets. I do see Saturday's game against Milton Keynes as a critical one in affecting these calculations. If Milton Keynes lose they will stand virtually no chance of finishing second, and Southampton's odds of promotion will certainly shorten. If you lose, the challenge of 18+ points from 9 games would be tougher. If you draw, you are (just about) on track. Do you agree with my logic?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thorpie the sinner Posted 31 March, 2011 Share Posted 31 March, 2011 Really have a feeling that we need to win 9 games and draw against Brighton! Lets rule out any other possibilities! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 31 March, 2011 Share Posted 31 March, 2011 28. People writing 20 points are loons. This analysis is from my father (a mathematician), for what it's worth....I asked him if the rational thing to do was to bet against Saints being promoted given the current odds (we're 2/7 or 1/4 TO GO UP) "I have now completed a detailed statistical analysis of League 1, and my conclusion is that the odds currently being offered are the right ones. I see a reasonable target for Southampton's last ten games as 20 points. This is what you have managed to achieve this season if the first six matches (4 points from 6 games) are discounted. Looking at the remaining fixtures, six wins, two draws, and two defeats seems entirely achievable. If you make this total you are almost certain to finish second. Only four teams could possibly beat you. If we make the entirely reasonable assumption that you keep your superior goal difference, 1. Bournemouth would need 24 points from 8 games (ie to win them all), or 2. Milton Keynes would need 21 points from 7 games (ie to win them all), or 3. Peterborough would need 20 points from 8 games - this means winning at least 7 games, or winning six and losing none (and they still have away games away against three of the top eight teams - Huddersfield, Leyton Orient and Rochdale - as well as a home game against Bournemouth), or 4. Huddersfield would need 16 points from 7 games - this means winning at least five games, and losing not more than one (and they still have to play Peterborough at home, and Milton Keynes and Brighton away). So I expect that even if you got 18 or 19 points from the last 10 games you would still stand a reasonable chance of finishing second. So my assessment of the probabilities of finishing second are Southampton 65% Huddersfield 20% Peterborough 10% Milton Keynes 5% Bournemouth 0% If you don't finish second you are certain to be in the play offs, and I would think your chances are at least 1 in 3 of winning these if you go that route. So Southampton's probability of promotion, based on the situation as of today is 0.65 + 0.35 x 0.33 = 0.77 which equates exactly to odds of 2/7. So I see no reason to lay off your bets. I do see Saturday's game against Milton Keynes as a critical one in affecting these calculations. If Milton Keynes lose they will stand virtually no chance of finishing second, and Southampton's odds of promotion will certainly shorten. If you lose, the challenge of 18+ points from 9 games would be tougher. If you draw, you are (just about) on track. Do you agree with my logic?" Sorry your dad is a loon, lacking any rationale! BTW alps didn't fancy the bet that he would be closer than the loons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 31 March, 2011 Share Posted 31 March, 2011 This analysis is from my father (a mathematician), for what it's worth....I asked him if the rational thing to do was to bet against Saints being promoted given the current odds (we're 2/7 or 1/4 TO GO UP) "I have now completed a detailed statistical analysis of League 1, and my conclusion is that the odds currently being offered are the right ones. I see a reasonable target for Southampton's last ten games as 20 points. This is what you have managed to achieve this season if the first six matches (4 points from 6 games) are discounted. Looking at the remaining fixtures, six wins, two draws, and two defeats seems entirely achievable. If you make this total you are almost certain to finish second. Only four teams could possibly beat you. If we make the entirely reasonable assumption that you keep your superior goal difference, 1. Bournemouth would need 24 points from 8 games (ie to win them all), or 2. Milton Keynes would need 21 points from 7 games (ie to win them all), or 3. Peterborough would need 20 points from 8 games - this means winning at least 7 games, or winning six and losing none (and they still have away games away against three of the top eight teams - Huddersfield, Leyton Orient and Rochdale - as well as a home game against Bournemouth), or 4. Huddersfield would need 16 points from 7 games - this means winning at least five games, and losing not more than one (and they still have to play Peterborough at home, and Milton Keynes and Brighton away). So I expect that even if you got 18 or 19 points from the last 10 games you would still stand a reasonable chance of finishing second. So my assessment of the probabilities of finishing second are Southampton 65% Huddersfield 20% Peterborough 10% Milton Keynes 5% Bournemouth 0% If you don't finish second you are certain to be in the play offs, and I would think your chances are at least 1 in 3 of winning these if you go that route. So Southampton's probability of promotion, based on the situation as of today is 0.65 + 0.35 x 0.33 = 0.77 which equates exactly to odds of 2/7. So I see no reason to lay off your bets. I do see Saturday's game against Milton Keynes as a critical one in affecting these calculations. If Milton Keynes lose they will stand virtually no chance of finishing second, and Southampton's odds of promotion will certainly shorten. If you lose, the challenge of 18+ points from 9 games would be tougher. If you draw, you are (just about) on track. Do you agree with my logic?" Nice one. That makes me feel much better. I love your Dad, and so does my wife. Buy him a beer for me :-) p.s. now watch us go and lose the next two games..... ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draino76 Posted 31 March, 2011 Share Posted 31 March, 2011 This analysis is from my father (a mathematician), for what it's worth....I asked him if the rational thing to do was to bet against Saints being promoted given the current odds (we're 2/7 or 1/4 TO GO UP) "I have now completed a detailed statistical analysis of League 1, and my conclusion is that the odds currently being offered are the right ones. I see a reasonable target for Southampton's last ten games as 20 points. This is what you have managed to achieve this season if the first six matches (4 points from 6 games) are discounted. Looking at the remaining fixtures, six wins, two draws, and two defeats seems entirely achievable. If you make this total you are almost certain to finish second. Only four teams could possibly beat you. If we make the entirely reasonable assumption that you keep your superior goal difference, 1. Bournemouth would need 24 points from 8 games (ie to win them all), or 2. Milton Keynes would need 21 points from 7 games (ie to win them all), or 3. Peterborough would need 20 points from 8 games - this means winning at least 7 games, or winning six and losing none (and they still have away games away against three of the top eight teams - Huddersfield, Leyton Orient and Rochdale - as well as a home game against Bournemouth), or 4. Huddersfield would need 16 points from 7 games - this means winning at least five games, and losing not more than one (and they still have to play Peterborough at home, and Milton Keynes and Brighton away). So I expect that even if you got 18 or 19 points from the last 10 games you would still stand a reasonable chance of finishing second. So my assessment of the probabilities of finishing second are Southampton 65% Huddersfield 20% Peterborough 10% Milton Keynes 5% Bournemouth 0% If you don't finish second you are certain to be in the play offs, and I would think your chances are at least 1 in 3 of winning these if you go that route. So Southampton's probability of promotion, based on the situation as of today is 0.65 + 0.35 x 0.33 = 0.77 which equates exactly to odds of 2/7. So I see no reason to lay off your bets. I do see Saturday's game against Milton Keynes as a critical one in affecting these calculations. If Milton Keynes lose they will stand virtually no chance of finishing second, and Southampton's odds of promotion will certainly shorten. If you lose, the challenge of 18+ points from 9 games would be tougher. If you draw, you are (just about) on track. Do you agree with my logic?" Yes, I do. Excellent post SaintBobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 1 April, 2011 Share Posted 1 April, 2011 After tonight's game The most our rivals can achieve with 100% record, and how many points from 10 games we need to beat their max Hudds 91 26 Posh 87 23 mk 86 21 cherries 86 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Without a Halo Posted 1 April, 2011 Share Posted 1 April, 2011 After tonight's game The most our rivals can achieve with 100% record, and how many points from 10 games we need to beat their max Hudds 91 26 Posh 87 23 mk 86 21 cherries 86 19 Posh actually 88 24 Bompey 84 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 1 April, 2011 Share Posted 1 April, 2011 I reckon as little as 20 will be enough......surely we are good enough to do that..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Without a Halo Posted 1 April, 2011 Share Posted 1 April, 2011 I reckon as little as 20 will be enough......surely we are good enough to do that..? 20 points or 2 a game on average should would give us 85 at the end we would need posh to drop another 3 and Hudders to drop 6 A win by posh over hudders or a draw between them next week will help! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S-Clarke Posted 1 April, 2011 Share Posted 1 April, 2011 I reckon as little as 20 will be enough......surely we are good enough to do that..? 20/21, yep. That's what we've done all season too. Every 10 games we have picked up 20/21 points. We will need to have an untimely and pretty shocking dip to throw this away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John B Posted 1 April, 2011 Share Posted 1 April, 2011 20/21, yep. That's what we've done all season too. Every 10 games we have picked up 20/21 points. We will need to have an untimely and pretty shocking dip to throw this away. I agree with most of your posts including this one I have reckoned for some time that we will get about 85 points So we might get less points than last season and get promoted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saint_jas Posted 1 April, 2011 Share Posted 1 April, 2011 Still reckon 84 points will do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjii Posted 1 April, 2011 Share Posted 1 April, 2011 We can get 15 points from home games alone. They are key. Win those matches and we will surely pick up enough points from our five away games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 2 April, 2011 Share Posted 2 April, 2011 reckon 85 will be plenty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John B Posted 3 April, 2011 Share Posted 3 April, 2011 Yep 6 wins 2 draws and a couple of losses should be OK 68 plus 17 still looks OK to me but we should get more But only time will tell 9/4 for Huddersfield to win the League without Brighton looks an interesting bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EBS1980 Posted 5 April, 2011 Author Share Posted 5 April, 2011 So 7 wins from our final 8 would guarantee promotion now. I reckon 5 will in reality do it though. Here's hoping that Peterborough and Huddersfield draw on saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrunkenSaint Posted 5 April, 2011 Share Posted 5 April, 2011 P GD PTS BRIGHTON 45 47 100 P'BORO 45 28 81 SOTON 44 37 80 HUDDSFLD 45 20 77 MK DONS 45 9 76 B'MOUTH 45 24 75 L. ORIENT 45 18 74 Above is a league table showing the top 7 positions in league 1 on the morning of Monday May 2nd 2011 i had saints with 83 points in 2nd 1 point ahead of P`bough with Rochdale grabbing 6th but i had us drawing tonight so atm we're ahead of what i think. I need Huddersfield to slip up against Rochdale, P`bough and Brighton and us to draw with Brighton then my preditions will almost be right. Btw i had us losing against Rochdale so anything gained from that game i'll be delighted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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