Ten to go - how many points will we need?

[Cabrone]

P GD PTS

BRIGHTON 45 47 100

P'BORO 45 28 81

SOTON 44 37 80

HUDDSFLD 45 20 77

MK DONS 45 9 76

B'MOUTH 45 24 75

L. ORIENT 45 18 74

 

 

Above is a league table showing the top 7 positions in league 1 on the morning of Monday May 2nd 2011

 

I'd take that but my goodness Plymouth would be a real nerve jangler (I'm assuming we'd beat Walsall if we had to).

[Golden Balls]

I thought I was positive, just did the predictor on bbc and had us finishing 3rd, 1 point behind P'boro

[teamsaint]

I reckon fergie would bite your hand off for 22 points from 4 homes and 5 aways.So assuming that we dont slip too much on GD, 22 would do us.

4 wins and a draw at home, 3 wins 2 defeats away.

 

Easy if you say it quickly. Hudds will carry on picking up points, but they won't get to 85.

[NickG]

28.

 

People writing 20 points are loons.

 

so 27 wouldn't be enough?

 

if we won 9 out of 10 games to get 27 we would have 92 points and an amazing goal difference.

 

This would mean Peterborough would need 93 points.

 

Their maximum possible if they win 9 out of 9, would give them 92 points. To do this they need to beat Cherries, Huddersfield, Orient - win 5 away games.

 

If you think we need 28, think you are a loon!

[sotonian]

I thought I was positive, just did the predictor on bbc and had us finishing 3rd, 1 point behind P'boro

 

same as my forecast, but no problem i reckon Bournemouth in the play off final, exciting weekend in Manchester ending with promotion

[S-Clarke]

I thought I was positive, just did the predictor on bbc and had us finishing 3rd, 1 point behind P'boro

 

Out of interest what points totals did P'boro and us finish on?

[John B]

same as my forecast, but no problem i reckon Bournemouth in the play off final, exciting weekend in Manchester ending with promotion

 

I suggest that you put some money on Peterboro at 7 4 to be promoted seems a reasonable bet because if they finish out of the top two there are always the play offs

[sotonian]

Out of interest what points totals did P'boro and us finish on?

 

i had us on 84, P'boro on 85, so not that conclusive

[The Godfather]

I think peterboro will get around 88 points, and if we can get points in our away games we will match that and go up automatically on goal difference.

[NickG]

I think peterboro will get around 88 points, and if we can get points in our away games we will match that and go up automatically on goal difference.

 

think 88 is max they will get, but think could easily be around 83/84

[S-Clarke]

I think peterboro will get around 88 points, and if we can get points in our away games we will match that and go up automatically on goal difference.

 

88 is a little too high IMO.

 

I still think 85/86 will do it - for whoever gets there first.

[alpine_saint]

so 27 wouldn't be enough?

 

if we won 9 out of 10 games to get 27 we would have 92 points and an amazing goal difference.

 

This would mean Peterborough would need 93 points.

 

Their maximum possible if they win 9 out of 9, would give them 92 points. To do this they need to beat Cherries, Huddersfield, Orient - win 5 away games.

 

If you think we need 28, think you are a loon!

 

You REALLY need help.

 

Huddersfield can currently reach 91, and Peterborough can currently reach 92, so yes, you are right, 9 wins (27pts) are almost certainly enough because we then have 92 and Posh are unlikely (but its not certain the way they have been playing, but I'll throw you a bone here...) to catch us on goal difference.

 

However, the point of my post was that no way can 20points be claimed to be enough with any sense of certainly, let alone confidence, considering how our competition is playing currently. Why else is a big gap opening up between 7th and the rest ? I claimed 28 without doing the maths, thinking we can have one more Charlton-like f**k up but no more, but we shouldnt be contemplating losing any more.

 

Result ? Without even doing the maths, I was only 1pt out of what we need to be certain. Whoopee-sh*t.

 

I really feel sorry for pedants like you.

[a1ex2001]

I really feel sorry for pedants like you.

 

He's not being pedantic though is he, surely he's just being realistic like all those that think a low to mid 20's total will be enough? All that he's doing is pointing out that a total of 27 points would pretty much guarentee us promotion but the chances of us actually need that are slim to none, Do you honestly think Posh, Huddersfiled or Saints will win every game they have left this season? All three sides have demonstrated consistently this season that they will not go on runs like that and with the pressure really cranking up there will be twists and turns, I can say confidently (Not certainly) that based on form over the whole season and historic tables that the team that finishes second will have less than 90 points. If you so certain that a 90 point plus total will be required get down the bookies you'll get brilliant odds on posh winning every game left in the regular season so then when saints miss out a least you'll be rich.

[alpine_saint]

He's not being pedantic though is he, surely he's just being realistic like all those that think a low to mid 20's total will be enough? All that he's doing is pointing out that a total of 27 points would pretty much guarentee us promotion but the chances of us actually need that are slim to none, Do you honestly think Posh, Huddersfiled or Saints will win every game they have left this season? All three sides have demonstrated consistently this season that they will not go on runs like that and with the pressure really cranking up there will be twists and turns, I can say confidently (Not certainly) that based on form over the whole season and historic tables that the team that finishes second will have less than 90 points. If you so certain that a 90 point plus total will be required get down the bookies you'll get brilliant odds on posh winning every game left in the regular season so then when saints miss out a least you'll be rich.

 

He was being pedantic trying to contast 28pts to 27pts, when my post was contrasting 28pts to 20pts. The discussion was about what we need to get 2nd place, and being a bit absolutist in nature I automatically wrote about what would guarantee it.

[NickG]

You REALLY need help.

 

Huddersfield can currently reach 91, and Peterborough can currently reach 92, so yes, you are right, 9 wins (27pts) are almost certainly enough because we then have 92 and Posh are unlikely (but its not certain the way they have been playing, but I'll throw you a bone here...) to catch us on goal difference.

 

However, the point of my post was that no way can 20points be claimed to be enough with any sense of certainly, let alone confidence, considering how our competition is playing currently. Why else is a big gap opening up between 7th and the rest ? I claimed 28 without doing the maths, thinking we can have one more Charlton-like f**k up but no more, but we shouldnt be contemplating losing any more.

 

Result ? Without even doing the maths, I was only 1pt out of what we need to be certain. Whoopee-sh*t.

 

I really feel sorry for pedants like you.

 

you were calling those, with more informed view loons!!

 

I feel sorry for depressed chalet maids

[NickG]

He was being pedantic trying to contast 28pts to 27pts, when my post was contrasting 28pts to 20pts. The discussion was about what we need to get 2nd place, and being a bit absolutist in nature I automatically wrote about what would guarantee it.

 

you said we NEED 28, that means less will not be enough, I strongly believe, due to reasons explained that as usual you are wrong. Not only that but you insulted those before with more realistic replies.

 

You are becoming more and more a joke on here - to all.

[alpine_saint]

you were calling those, with more informed view loons!!

 

Nope, I called those claiming 20pts is enough are loons. Stretching it a bit to describe them as more informed. No way is 20 enough.

 

I feel sorry for depressed chalet maids

 

So do I. Water off a ducks back...

[alpine_saint]

you said we NEED 28, that means less will not be enough, I strongly believe, due to reasons explained that as usual you are wrong. Not only that but you insulted those before with more realistic replies.

 

You are becoming more and more a joke on here - to all.

 

Ey oop, he needs a second bite at the cherry to make a point. And his second attempt was no better than his first.

 

I said we need 28 points to be sure. Actually, its 27 points. My bad...

 

The "loon number" does not ensure promotion. Period.

 

*cue your next playground name-calling*

[S-Clarke]

Nope, I called those claiming 20pts is enough are loons. Stretching it a bit to describe them as more informed. No way is 20 enough.

 

 

 

So do I. Water off a ducks back...

 

I don't think anyone is saying 20 will 100% guarantee it, or is mathematically enough.

 

But based on the teams form around us, our form, seasons gone - 20-21 points should be enough. 28 points would equal a bit of a freak season.

[alpine_saint]

I don't think anyone is saying 20 will 100% guarantee it, or is mathematically enough.

 

But based on the teams form around us, our form, seasons gone - 20-21 points should be enough. 28 points would equal a bit of a freak season.

 

Yes, but I think we already have a bit of a freak season. There is a significant gap around 7th to 8th, imo, once everyone is on the same number of games.

[a1ex2001]

He was being pedantic trying to contast 28pts to 27pts, when my post was contrasting 28pts to 20pts. The discussion was about what we need to get 2nd place, and being a bit absolutist in nature I automatically wrote about what would guarantee it.

 

So finally you admit that you missed the point of the thread completely? The subject is how many points will we NEED for promotion not home many points will GUARANTEE promotion.

 

So now we've cleared that up, how many points do you actually think will be enough as you can't be serious saying that 27-28 will be required?

[alpine_saint]

So finally you admit that you missed the point of the thread completely? The subject is how many points will we NEED for promotion not home many points will GUARANTEE promotion.

 

So now we've cleared that up, how many points do you actually think will be enough as you can't be serious saying that 27-28 will be required?

 

Nope, I dont admit anything. I dont have a crystal ball about the results, so I reckon we need 27pts because then Posh and Huddersfield cannot catch us.

[benjii]

Peterborough have 4 home games and 5 aways.

 

If you assume they win all 4 home games (which is by no means certain) then they need to average two points per game from their away games (which include Huddersfield and Orient) to get 22 points.

 

They currently have amassed 23 points from 18 away games. I haven't got my calculator out but that is evidently less than 1.3 points per match. Therefore, if anyone thinks Peterborough will get 22 points (or better) then they are assuming they will hit their best form of the season by some distance over the remaining games.

 

So a far more sensible prediction is that they will get something like 17-20 points - which is still a good return from 9 matches.

 

Therefore, I would respectfully suggest to Alpine that the suggestion we need 20 points from 10 matches (League winning form) is not at all loony, and if anything, is probably on the high side.

[alpine_saint]

Peterborough have 4 home games and 5 aways.

 

If you assume they win all 4 home games (which is by no means certain) then they need to average two points per game from their away games (which include Huddersfield and Orient) to get 22 points.

 

They currently have amassed 23 points from 18 away games. I haven't got my calculator out but that is evidently less than 1.3 points per match. Therefore, if anyone thinks Peterborough will get 22 points (or better) then they are assuming they will hit their best form of the season by some distance over the remaining games.

 

So a far more sensible prediction is that they will get something like 17-20 points - which is still a good return from 9 matches.

 

Therefore, I would respectfully suggest to Alpine that the suggestion we need 20 points from 10 matches (League winning form) is not at all loony, and if anything, is probably on the high side.

 

Does your highlighted part take into account current form ?

 

Dont forget the turnaround the Lesser-Tw*tted Ferguson has brought about in recent times.

 

Oh, go on then, I'll throw you all a bone. Posh or Huddersfield to have one mare of a game. 24 points.

[benjii]

Does your highlighted part take into account current form ?

 

Dont forget the turnaround the Lesser-Tw*tted Ferguson has brought about in recent times.

 

Oh, go on then, I'll throw you all a bone. Posh or Huddersfield to have one mare of a game. 24 points.

 

I agree, they have been more consistent lately. I still think that, in terms of predictions, it is quite a punt to assume they will win all four home games and average 2 points away from home. They may well do it, and if they do then fair play to them as 22 points from 9 matches is better form than any team in the top 4 divisions has managed over the season.

[NickG]

I don't think anyone is saying 20 will 100% guarantee it, or is mathematically enough.

 

But based on the teams form around us, our form, seasons gone - 20-21 points should be enough. 28 points would equal a bit of a freak season.

 

loon

[Window Cleaner]

I agree, they have been more consistent lately. I still think that, in terms of predictions, it is quite a punt to assume they will win all four home games and average 2 points away from home. They may well do it, and if they do then fair play to them as 22 points from 9 matches is better form than any team in the top 4 divisions has managed over the season.

 

It's all relative though,MKD have won their last 5, who could say just how many of their last 8 they're likely to win. I wouldn't want to

be in the play-offs with either them or Peterborough I know that.

[alpine_saint]

It's all relative though,MKD have won their last 5, who could say just how many of their last 8 they're likely to win. I wouldn't want to

be in the play-offs with either them or Peterborough I know that.

 

Indeed. If we dont get 2nd, I am assuming it will be Posh. I just dont feel that Huddersfield will maintain their form enough.

 

In which case MK Dons are the team to worry about in the playoffs.

[Window Cleaner]

Indeed. If we dont get 2nd, I am assuming it will be Posh. I just dont feel that Huddersfield will maintain their form enough.

 

In which case MK Dons are the team to worry about in the playoffs.

 

In their last 5 games Dons have beaten Brighton and Peterborough, we'll see what they're made of at SMS in a while of course but they're such a bunch of f*cknasties that they worry me more than any other side left in the promotion race.If by any chance they should beat both us and Huddersfield then all bets would be off regarding 2nd place.

[NickG]

Ten to go and I think we will need 22 points to get 2nd place.

 

7 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats.

 

 

What do others think will be needed?

 

28.

 

People writing 20 points are loons.

 

Does your highlighted part take into account current form ?

 

Dont forget the turnaround the Lesser-Tw*tted Ferguson has brought about in recent times.

Oh, go on then, I'll throw you all a bone. Posh or Huddersfield to have one mare of a game. 24 points.

 

Indeed. If we dont get 2nd, I am assuming it will be Posh. I just dont feel that Huddersfield will maintain their form enough.

 

In which case MK Dons are the team to worry about in the playoffs.

 

I agree that Peterborough are the most likely, after us, to be 2nd.

 

I also agree that Fergie has done well.

 

I would not want to disappoint and miss out on a stat opportunity;

 

If Peterborough gain points, as they have since Fergie returned they will finish on.... 82 points.

 

Assuming nothing crazy happens with goals meaning we would need another 16 points to finish above them.Personally think this is bit low, but shows 20 is no more loony than 28 (personally think its closer)

 

I will make a donation of a reasonable amount to a uk based charity of your choice if 28 is needed to get 2nd

[alpine_saint]

I will make a donation of a reasonable amount to a uk based charity of your choice if 28 is needed to get 2nd

 

And easy offer to make seeing as you have already proven 27pts is enough.

[Saint_Ash]

Looking at all the fixtures remaining for all teams concerned, I reckon we'll need at the very least 20 points for safety, I think we need 23 to be comfortable.

[Window Cleaner]

The key lies in the matches between the top 7 teams. We unfortunately have still to play 3 of them, 2 away.If the better placed team(on points average/game) wins each time the points needed will be more than if the lower team wins.

[NickG]

ok, will widen it Alps

 

how about I bet your prediction, will not be closer to what actually proves to be realisitic, than the prediction that you said was made by loons?

 

if you are closer, you choose a charity and I will make a donation. If you are not I can choose one for you?

 

Charity wins and it can be done on trust and what you are happy to give.

Edited 25 March, 2011 by NickG

[yorkiesaint]

The real problem is that we have some tough games coming up. I am thinking:

 

Orient away (last 6 games 4W 1D 1L): draw or defeat

Brighton away (last 6 games: 6W): draw or defeat

MK dons home (last 6 games 5W 1D): draw or even defeat if recent history replays itself

 

(saints last 6 games 4W 1D 1D).

 

These teams are all on excellent runs of form, rivalling ours.

[Alanh]

The real problem is that we have some tough games coming up. I am thinking:

 

Orient away (last 6 games 4W 1D 1L): draw or defeat

Brighton away (last 6 games: 6W): draw or defeat

MK dons home (last 6 games 5W 1D): draw or even defeat if recent history replays itself

 

(saints last 6 games 4W 1D 1D).

 

These teams are all on excellent runs of form, rivalling ours.

 

Not sure how you can say that given our recent history v franchise includes beating them four times last season. OK, we lost earlier in the season at their place but that was with Wilkins as manager. The current form of both sides is also similar.

[Window Cleaner]

Not sure how you can say that given our recent history v franchise includes beating them four times last season. OK, we lost earlier in the season at their place but that was with Wilkins as manager. The current form of both sides is also similar.

 

Haven't MK Dons won 6 out of 7 and drawn 1,beating Brighton and Peterborough on the way?

They were pretty mediocre up until mid February, there or thereabouts but nothing special and then whoosh they hit a hot streak.How long will it last that's the question. I'd think it's too late for them to think about automatic promotion still but they can make life difficult for the teams that still have to face them.

[Alanh]

Haven't MK Dons won 6 out of 7 and drawn 1,beating Brighton and Peterborough on the way?

They were pretty mediocre up until mid February, there or thereabouts but nothing special and then whoosh they hit a hot streak.How long will it last that's the question. I'd think it's too late for them to think about automatic promotion still but they can make life difficult for the teams that still have to face them.

 

Fair point to say that their form is currently good, but we have a very good record against them and a very good record at home. I'm more confident about our ability to get 3 points in the match against them than I am in the match against orient away.

[Window Cleaner]

Fair point to say that their form is currently good, but we have a very good record against them and a very good record at home. I'm more confident about our ability to get 3 points in the match against them than I am in the match against orient away.

 

I think it will depend on who we have available and and how much they decide to rough us up this time.

[croydonsaint]

ok, will widen it Alps

 

how about I bet your prediction will not be closer to what proves realisitic than the prediction that you said was made by loons?

 

if you are closer, you choose a charity and I will make a donation. If you are not I can choose one for you?

 

Charity wins and it can be done on trust and what you are happy to give.

 

Wheres he gone?

[benjii]

So, that's 2 dropped by Pboro.

 

From 4 more home games and 4 aways they will do EXTREMELY well to get another twenty points.

[brmbrm]

OK, I ran this through the Bayesian probabilistic estimator. This does NOT require subjective guesses on what the results will be. It also treats plonker-type Alpine inanities as inanities. Interestingly, it comes out at this (based on a statistical analysis of our results, the reuslts of others, and tehe results of the opposition etc etc etc.

 

50%+ probability of promotion needs 18 points

20 points gives 79.5%

22 points give 92.1%

25 points gives 97.8%

 

if you don't believe me, then i am open to offers for wagers, all of course at odds that my Bayesian estimator thinks gives me a profit!

[brmbrm]

OK, I ran this through the Bayesian probabilistic estimator. This does NOT require subjective guesses on what the results will be. It also treats plonker-type Alpine inanities as inanities. Interestingly, it comes out at this (based on a statistical analysis of our results, the reuslts of others, and tehe results of the opposition etc etc etc.

 

50%+ probability of promotion needs 18 points

20 points gives 79.5%

22 points give 92.1%

25 points gives 97.8%

 

if you don't believe me, then i am open to offers for wagers, all of course at odds that my Bayesian estimator thinks gives me a profit!

 

Doh! Tonights results change the above figures, but not by much (mainly because MK dons chances have slipped)

[NickG]

Wheres he gone?

 

To be fair to alpine he has been offline since I made the offer even more attractive for him.

 

I am sure he will take me up as he was so quick to mock others' opinions and I have even given him quite a lot of slack from his initial statement of 28 points.

[NickG]

Wheres he gone?

 

surely he is not lacking confidence in himself? He sounded so full of himself when he called others loons!

 

Perhaps he should agree to the bet or be big enough to apologise for getting it wrong - again

[jjsaint]

I think we will need 83 points to secure automatic promotion.

 

Assuming Huddersfield and Peterborough continue along their points per game trajectory for the rest of the season, but with a 15% increase from this for a buffer. This translates to 16 points for both of them (2 pts per game) for the rest of the season, Posh ending on 82 and Huddersfield on 83. This seems realistic and shows that they are by no means infallible.

 

I've discounted goal difference because I just don't see anyone even Posh surpassing ours. This means we'll need 83, or only 18 from our last 10 games.

 

But we're Saints, so it will inevitably be harder in real life...

[Hamilton Saint]

How many points do we need? It depends on how the other teams do around us.

 

HTH

[saint_jas]

84 points is my estimate.

 

Edited 26 March, 2011 by saint_jas

[SuperMikey]

I just did the predictor, had it finishing thus:

 

Team              Pld      GD      Pts
1. Brighton        46      54      103
2. Southampton     46      51      90
----------------------------------------------------------
3. Huddersfield    46      26      87
4. Peterborough    46      34      83
5. MK Dons         46      14      81
6. Bournemouth     46      27      80

[NickG]

84 points is my estimate.

 

 

would only need 83 with that - another 18 from 10 - which would be a drop in form for Adkins since he arrived