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Why the concern over our form?


stevegrant

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TBF, I think that is what we are trying to do. Good idea all the same though.

 

I'm sure the lads are, so why do people on here bang on about drawing our away games and winning at home?

And why oh why do people say the odd loss is inevitable? I bet Napoleon never sat down with the Generals and agreed that losing was inevitable...

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Taking out any emotional attachment to any particular result, particularly thinking about Tuesday's defeat at Walsall, and ignoring the actual "performances" in terms of fluidity, cohesion, consistency, etc, and solely looking at the end results and the points accrued, I'm confused as to why so many people are so concerned about our current situation.

 

Since the new year, we have picked up 24 points from 12 games, an average of 2 points per game - comfortably promotion form, in normal circumstances.

 

The only problem - and it's something almost entirely out of our control - is the form of other teams. Brighton have averaged 2.33 points per game in the same period (albeit only 4 points more in total) and Bournemouth have averaged 2.21ppg.

 

Leeds went up last season with 86 points, but based on form since the new year (at least 12 games), there are SEVEN teams who would end with more than that over an entire season:

 

Brighton 2.33 (28 from 12)

Bournemouth 2.21 (31 from 14)

Peterborough 2 (26 from 13)

Southampton 2 (24 from 12)

Huddersfield 1.92 (25 from 13)

Leyton Orient 1.92 (23 from 12)

Rochdale 1.92 (23 from 12)

 

Ultimately, we can only do what we can. 2 points per game is exactly where we should be aiming at over a long period of time (26 games between 1st January and the end of the season), and that's right where we are at the moment. We can only affect the performance of the other teams when we actually play them. In games against the current top 6, we've taken 11 points from 6 games, so not quite up to the 2pts per game target, but a win at Bournemouth next week would fix that in an instant.

 

If you'd been to many of those games (dunno whether you have or haven't), you'd have noticed we've dipped in form, failed to beat poor teams & subsequently dropped points & yet again failed to gain ground on our competitors whilst playing poorly (sloppy passing, poor finishing & lack of attacking impetus) for substantial periods (dare I even mention the opening 20mins of Colchester, Walsall, Tranmere, Notts County, Brenford, etc.)

 

Call me picky but if I see Brighton capable, B'mouth more so & considering our assembled squad (despite Chaplow, I felt we had a poor transfer window since our pot of gold is hardly that, the Liebherr's want us self sufficient which should be achievable with our gates) yet that Southampton mentality seems to be evident in patches. Thinking we're better than we are. That's my only theory since we've always been that way reagrdless of manager, squad, chairmen, board, etc.

 

I'm hoping we'll pull it together & keep winning. We're getting some good results but some people set their sights low & forget we're in League One. I expect better. Yeovil & chiefly B'mouth will define if we've done enough to actually secure automatic promotion. Let's hope so as we certainly aren't as consistent as Brighton for whatever excuse our fans give.

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If we go up as runners up (or even as champions) but don't do it "with conviction", I'll be well p*ssed off.

 

I'm not sure anyone gives a shyt how we go up (I certainly don't), but I think it is a fair comment to say that unless we turn up the quality of our performances and perhaps play with a bit more conviction, determination and belief then we might well struggle to go up (but don't let me get in the way of your snide comments).

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I'm not sure anyone gives a shyt how we go up (I certainly don't), but I think it is a fair comment to say that unless we turn up the quality of our performances and perhaps play with a bit more conviction, determination and belief then we might well struggle to go up (but don't let me get in the way of your snide comments).

 

Snide versus Pompous. Let battle commence.

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I'm not sure anyone gives a shyt how we go up (I certainly don't), but I think it is a fair comment to say that unless we turn up the quality of our performances and perhaps play with a bit more conviction, determination and belief then we might well struggle to go up (but don't let me get in the way of your snide comments).

 

I give a ****e. I'll be happy to go up under any circumstances, but I go give a ****e. It's why I support Saints, it's what I'd expect for any team in our position, I want to see convincing performances and hard work to form a well deserved automatic promotion. Why wouldn't I care about that?

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Oh and the bookies have us at between 5/2 & 7/2 ON for promotion, with Bournemouth 5/4, Hudds/P'boro 2/1, 7/1 BAR.

 

All the negativity and doom mongering isn't shared by the people who make a living running books.

 

Yes I agree with you and I think we will just get second place but a loss on Saturday will not be good.

 

I think the negativity is probably due to impatience and the fact that we have not done well recently as a few weeks ago we were in second place

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I'm one of the positive types, in that I think the bookies are right and that we are very likely indeed to be promoted - probably in 2nd place.

 

That said, we have underperformed quite badly this season - or at least for the first 2/3 of it overall.

 

Appreciate the "we'll walk this league" meme has become an in joke on here, but we really should be walking this League. At the start of the season, I'd have said 100 points was a reasonable target. The resources we have at our disposal are just enormous compared to our immediate competitors and the team shouldn't have needed much time to "gell". That was a fair excuse last August as we had such an influx of new players, but the basic line-up this season is very similar to last season.

 

I think the reason poor results (such as Tranmere and Walsall) provoke such negative outbursts is that they heap more bad news on what has actually been quite a poor overall performance and the margin for error at the so-called business end of the season is now pretty tiny.

 

Although I have some sympathy for the OP's point about "we can only do what we can do, we can't affect our competitors other than when we play them", the very strong performances of Brighton and Bournemouth show how weak this division is. Both those sides deserve credit for doing so spectacularly well, but it does underscore Saints rather underwhelming points haul so far.

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Quite possibly. Because, quite possibly, it will be. And your problem is what, exactly ?

 

I'm guessing it's the way you convey 'the possibility' as a 'fact' in the manner in which you sometimes post on a negative subject.

 

One example was when you posted during the Tranmere game I think it was "Our promotion chances are hanging by a thread"

 

Now if we were in Pompey's current position in this league I'd say you were right. In our current position, I think your well off the mark.

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I'm guessing it's the way you convey 'the possibility' as a 'fact' in the manner in which you sometimes post on a negative subject.

 

One example was when you posted during the Tranmere game I think it was "Our promotion chances are hanging by a thread"

 

 

I'd say that is more to do with how people choose to interpret it than how I have expressed it...

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Taking out any emotional attachment to any particular result, particularly thinking about Tuesday's defeat at Walsall, and ignoring the actual "performances" in terms of fluidity, cohesion, consistency, etc, and solely looking at the end results and the points accrued, I'm confused as to why so many people are so concerned about our current situation.

 

Since the new year, we have picked up 24 points from 12 games, an average of 2 points per game - comfortably promotion form, in normal circumstances.

 

The only problem - and it's something almost entirely out of our control - is the form of other teams. Brighton have averaged 2.33 points per game in the same period (albeit only 4 points more in total) and Bournemouth have averaged 2.21ppg.

 

Leeds went up last season with 86 points, but based on form since the new year (at least 12 games), there are SEVEN teams who would end with more than that over an entire season:

 

Brighton 2.33 (28 from 12)

Bournemouth 2.21 (31 from 14)

Peterborough 2 (26 from 13)

Southampton 2 (24 from 12)

Huddersfield 1.92 (25 from 13)

Leyton Orient 1.92 (23 from 12)

Rochdale 1.92 (23 from 12)

 

Ultimately, we can only do what we can. 2 points per game is exactly where we should be aiming at over a long period of time (26 games between 1st January and the end of the season), and that's right where we are at the moment. We can only affect the performance of the other teams when we actually play them. In games against the current top 6, we've taken 11 points from 6 games, so not quite up to the 2pts per game target, but a win at Bournemouth next week would fix that in an instant.

 

This is of course is the complacent claptrap that allows the current managers and players to carry on doing what they have been doing all season par excellence, not giving a toss 'cos they can always get another job and playing like a load of ******s week in week out and still getting a place in the starting XI.

 

You my friend need an effing great dose of coffee aroma...

 

Wake Up, where have you been all season?????

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I'd say that is more to do with how people choose to interpret it than how I have expressed it...

 

I think the problem is you don't show the same statistical certainty when Saints go ahead.

 

I'm trying to remember the last league game where we went ahead but then lost. Can't think of one this season, but haven't checked.

 

If your response to, say, Lambert putting us 2-1 up v Swindon was "well, that shld almost certainly be game won now. Fantastic!"....then fair enough....

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I'm trying to remember the last league game where we went ahead but then lost. Can't think of one this season, but haven't checked.

Us and Colchester are the only two teams not to have lost a game when scoring first.

 

We've won 12 and drawn 3 games (Orient at home, Yeovil and Peterborough away) when doing so.

 

I'm hoping we'll pull it together & keep winning. We're getting some good results but some people set their sights low & forget we're in League One. I expect better. Yeovil & chiefly B'mouth will define if we've done enough to actually secure automatic promotion. Let's hope so as we certainly aren't as consistent as Brighton for whatever excuse our fans give.

Surely that's a contradiction. Either we remember we're in League One, and therefore accept that we have no divine right to be "walking the league" regardless of resources and adjust our expectations accordingly, or we act the billy big ******** and then whinge that fans of Brighton and Bournemouth don't like us for some unknown reason.

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I'm one of the positive types, in that I think the bookies are right and that we are very likely indeed to be promoted - probably in 2nd place.

 

That said, we have underperformed quite badly this season - or at least for the first 2/3 of it overall.

 

Appreciate the "we'll walk this league" meme has become an in joke on here, but we really should be walking this League. At the start of the season, I'd have said 100 points was a reasonable target. The resources we have at our disposal are just enormous compared to our immediate competitors and the team shouldn't have needed much time to "gell". That was a fair excuse last August as we had such an influx of new players, but the basic line-up this season is very similar to last season.

 

I think the reason poor results (such as Tranmere and Walsall) provoke such negative outbursts is that they heap more bad news on what has actually been quite a poor overall performance and the margin for error at the so-called business end of the season is now pretty tiny.

 

Although I have some sympathy for the OP's point about "we can only do what we can do, we can't affect our competitors other than when we play them", the very strong performances of Brighton and Bournemouth show how weak this division is. Both those sides deserve credit for doing so spectacularly well, but it does underscore Saints rather underwhelming points haul so far.

 

I think that sums it up for me

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er, but it is within our control to average more points per games than those two though. Come the end of the season and we come third there is no use saying it was beyond our control that the other two got more points than us.

 

We are not playing well as a side. The quality of individuals is getting us wins. If we can click as a side then they'd be no stopping us. Adkins must find that elusive blend, style...that enables the side to play freely.

 

I've been away the past week, so missed the commentary on the match against Walsall, but listened to the radio commentary and read the match report on Saturday's game.

 

But it seems that there was one factor common to both matches which could have had a major bearing on the outcomes. In both cases, it seems that we played without any width.

 

Now, I might be mistaken, but surely it is up to us to a certain extent as to how we play. The other team might attempt to play in a style which suits them, or neutralises the effectiveness of their opposition, but if we chose to play with width, stretching the midfield to increase our ability to pass the ball to our players, then surely there is little that the other team could do to prevent it. If the ball is in the hands of our goallie, or we have a free kick, then we are able to string players across the pitch to offer passing and attacking options which would suit our style of play and the skills of our players. But we don't often do that and Dave Merrington plainly said that in the Colchester match, the play was compacted into a small, tight area of the pitch.

 

And yet against Man Ure we played a great passing game with width. Against Swindon, once we had established a lead, we played such good passing foorball that they couldn't even get the ball from us.

 

I'm convinced that if we were to play to our strengths, utilising our main assets of pace out wide with Chamberlain, good passing ability from the likes of Lallana and Schneiderlin, we would beat any team in this division. So why do we allow these less skillful teams to dictate how we should play?

 

I just don't understand it.

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there is no real concern...people are more concerned if we just dont crush every team we play...

this stage of the season, I could not care less if we win every game 1-0 with the opposition scoring an own goal....

 

why people are obsessed right now with style when we are at the business end is what is concerning

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I'm convinced that if we were to play to our strengths, utilising our main assets of pace out wide with Chamberlain, good passing ability from the likes of Lallana and Schneiderlin, we would beat any team in this division. So why do we allow these less skillful teams to dictate how we should play?

 

I just don't understand it.

being a saints fan, you should understant...all those times we beat man u, chelsea, liverpool when at the dell.........how can you not understand when seeing us do that to so many teams..?

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there is no real concern...people are more concerned if we just dont crush every team we play...

this stage of the season, I could not care less if we win every game 1-0 with the opposition scoring an own goal....

 

why people are obsessed right now with style when we are at the business end is what is concerning

 

For me, the way we have played in some of our recent (home) games has been a concern, not because of a lack of flair, style or goals but because we've looked shaky and lost the hold on the game. Against Carlisle an Swindon we were comfortably on top, scored then seemed to lose all the 'oompth' from our play.

 

Against Swindon we almost got punished for it, and they're having a terrible time this season.

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being a saints fan, you should understant...all those times we beat man u, chelsea, liverpool when at the dell.........how can you not understand when seeing us do that to so many teams..?

 

What I don't understand is why we should allow other teams to dictate how we should play. Yes, we have seen so many times how other less skilled teams "park the bus" in front of their goal and invite us to break them down. But as I say, when we have possession, why do we have to have all of our players in one half of the field lengthwise?

 

That was a fault of Pardew's and it looked as if Adkins was different. Recently, the way we've played, it seems not.

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My mate follows Boscombe home and away and yesterday he told me he's convinced we're going to beat them. Says they play too much football, rather than get "stuck in" and disrupt our game.He could be double bluffing me, but he was really confident about the game at SMS.

 

If we win both games this week, things will look a whole lot better.I think we'll beat Yeovil and draw at Boscombe, and will still go up.

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If your response to, say, Lambert putting us 2-1 up v Swindon was "well, that shld almost certainly be game won now. Fantastic!"....then fair enough....

 

Why should I say that when I am really thinking "This is Saints, we need another 2 goals to be sure its a win" ?

 

We lost a 2-goal lead twice against Peterborough...

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What I don't understand is why we should allow other teams to dictate how we should play. Yes, we have seen so many times how other less skilled teams "park the bus" in front of their goal and invite us to break them down. But as I say, when we have possession, why do we have to have all of our players in one half of the field lengthwise?

 

That was a fault of Pardew's and it looked as if Adkins was different. Recently, the way we've played, it seems not.

but that is football...how else do you think we beat the big boys when we had the likes of benali, dryden, palmer, speedie in our team...?

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Against Swindon we almost got punished for it, and they're having a terrible time this season.

but they are the 4th top away scorers...

surely that tells you that away from home, their style will cause nearly all teams problems.........whether they score many is another matter

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ummmm Matt le Tissier

 

indeed....but you really think we played out from the back..or played free flowing attractive football..?

eer, no

 

buy all accounts, man u, liverpool, arsenal etc should have beaten us every single time.....just does not work like that

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Why should I say that when I am really thinking "This is Saints, we need another 2 goals to be sure its a win" ?

 

We lost a 2-goal lead twice against Peterborough...

 

But you see, you are happy to refer to one offs when you are trying to justify why you are so negative. But I bet if we go a goal down to Yeovil you won't be saying "It's ok, we were a goal down at Exeter and came back to win".

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so, as I see it... we keep at it, and try to win every game. With even a modicum of luck we keep right up there, and then we cheer the lads on through a great run of wins in the last 6 games to clinch 2nd place.

 

And we can maybe even convince bha that we are repaying them for stitching them up in 1978. (Something that they would have done if it had been the other way round. Mind you , I still am still amazed at Tony Funnells skill in deliberately hitting the post, but thats another story !!)

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indeed....but you really think we played out from the back..or played free flowing attractive football..?

eer, no

 

buy all accounts, man u, liverpool, arsenal etc should have beaten us every single time.....just does not work like that

 

We didn't need to we had a guy who could put them in the goal from just inside the half way line. Take Le Tiss out of the equation and we would have been hammered into relegation long before we were. None of the teams down here have anything comparable to Matty. Good teams will always get beaten by poorer teams otherwise football would be pointless. Top teams make sure it's a very rare occurance that's what makes them top teams.

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Our form and points per game ratio is largely irrelevant if it means that ultimately we fail to go up.

 

Obviously, but recent form is the only way to make a judgement about future performance and points per game is the only way to quantify that in a meaningful sense in football.

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Why should I say that when I am really thinking "This is Saints, we need another 2 goals to be sure its a win" ?

 

We lost a 2-goal lead twice against Peterborough...

 

It depends whether your comments are based on statistical likelihood or on relentless, baseless psychological negativity.

 

As pointed out above, we are one of only two teams in the division never to have taken the lead and then lost a league game.

 

It's fine, to a degree, for people to bark out their own irrational prejudices, or type out whatever unreasoned thought is running through their mind at any given time. But such posts are not grounded in reality and are therefore likely to be ignored or ridiculed by others. And quite right too.

 

Actually, Saints have a very good record at NOT surrendering a lead in comparison to other teams.

 

But why let a fact get in the way of a wholly baseless rant?

Edited by SaintBobby
typographical
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Why the concern? Because we obvioulsy don't have a lock yet on second place. We're doing well, but so are the other teams around us. If we don't get automatic promotion via second place, then it means the play-offs.

 

Even if we're the in-form, "best" team by the time the play-offs come around, that doesn't mean we'll win the play-offs (obviously). And those games-in-hand are no guarantee - look what happened at Walsall! So, yeah, lots to be concerned about!

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indeed....but you really think we played out from the back..or played free flowing attractive football..?

eer, no

 

buy all accounts, man u, liverpool, arsenal etc should have beaten us every single time.....just does not work like that

 

I'm not disputing that on our day in previous years we could beat the likes of the glory teams.

 

Chez had suggested that "Adkins must find that elusive blend, style...that enables the side to play freely."

 

I questioned why we allowed other teams to dictate that we should play a narrow restricted game, not utilising our ability to play with width, thus freeing up the centre to allow us to play to our strengths, which are pace out wide and incisive passing.

 

Do you believe that we have no alternative but to play in the manner that is dictated by the tactics of the rival managers? Because if there is no alternative, then we might as well accept that we are not going up this season.

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I can't see Bournemouth maintaining their excellent form until the end of the season.

 

We are picking up the points playing below the standards we can reasonably expect from our squad. I'm sure the decent performances are just around the corner. Lambert really needs to up his game though.

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I can't see Bournemouth maintaining their excellent form until the end of the season.

 

We are picking up the points playing below the standards we can reasonably expect from our squad. I'm sure the decent performances are just around the corner. Lambert really needs to up his game though.

 

Have to say that I'm hoping for the same, but something has to change!!!!!!!

 

We're certainly not firing on all cylinders, so I'm hoping that we get back in to a decent run of form just in time to finish the season off in style. At the same time, I'm also hoping that Bournemouth finally run out of puff.

 

But I think one or both of the above have to change soon!!!!

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Play-offs for us - a dead cert if you ask me.

 

Since our stunning 6-0 away thumping of Oldham - we have stuttered, coughed & spluttered far too much - whilst Bournemouth & Brighton have marched on.

 

So, play-offs it is.

 

Bompey are 6 points ahead of us! we have 2 games in hand and we also still have to play them! i think 2nd place is still well and truely in our own hands, think we will get it too

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Thought I'd pick this up again...

 

Since I started the thread, every team's played a further two games. Rochdale lost both, so I've removed them from the list, and replaced them with MK Dons.

 

Brighton, Saints, Peterborough, Huddersfield, Dons and Orient won both games, while Bournemouth lost both.

 

Bournemouth's stumble puts us in second place in terms of results since the new year:

 

Brighton 2.43 (34 from 14)

Saints 2.14 (30 from 14)

Peterborough 2.13 (32 from 15)

Orient 2.07 (29 from 14)

Huddersfield 2.06 (31 from 15)

Bournemouth 1.94 (31 from 16)

 

Taking those scores and putting them into the remaining games (bear in mind we've got games in hand over everyone except Brighton and Orient, the latter probably only fighting for a playoff spot realistically anyway), the table would finish something like this:

 

Brighton 100

Saints 87

-----------------

Peterborough 85

Huddersfield 83

Bournemouth 80

Leyton Orient 80

-----------------

MK Dons 78

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