saint lard Posted 25 February, 2011 Share Posted 25 February, 2011 sorry all - laid up with dodgy stomach but boring myself now so will leave this thread!! This season is giving me the squits too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 25 February, 2011 Share Posted 25 February, 2011 agree - so include all of his games! Clearly better than rivals for 2nd! Yes I expect us to get 2nd as well but our away form concerns me somewhat. As long as we keep winning at home we'll be OK but even 1 home defeat or 2 draws will put us in serious trouble because our recent away record is just not good enough to make up for any sort of blip in our home form.With 9 away games left we really have to get something better from them than from the 4 of late, 5 from 4 just isn't good enough especially as 2 of those games are against promotion rivals and 1 against the league leader.A defeat against either Bournemouth or Charlton would put us in serious difficulty for the second auto promotion spot. Long ago I expressed concern about the gulf between home and away form in the context of the massive build up of away games in the latter part of the season.Unless we start winning away from home a bit more any upturn in say Charlton's or Huddersfield's form will be problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummer Posted 25 February, 2011 Share Posted 25 February, 2011 Long ago I expressed concern about the gulf between home and away form in the context of the massive build up of away games in the latter part of the season. There is a gulf between our home and away form, but it doesn't seem to be the way you think it is. We have the second best away record in the league (1 point behind Brighton). We are 8th in the home league table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 25 February, 2011 Share Posted 25 February, 2011 There is a gulf between our home and away form, but it doesn't seem to be the way you think it is. We have the second best away record in the league (1 point behind Brighton). We are 8th in the home league table. Over the whole season so far yes but we had those 2 early home defeats on the counter before NA came here. Since then we're pretty solid at home and less so away. When you look at our remaining away games some of them are a bit of a worry, Orient,Rochdale,Charlton,Brighton,Bournemouth all sides who still fancy their chances of getting something out of this season,that will change as time goes on but if we just maintain our recent away form we'll be totally reliant on our home games to get us up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy Durman Posted 25 February, 2011 Share Posted 25 February, 2011 The biggest concern for us and the management is our current form which has dipped. Adkins needs to sort this out quickly for us to achieve our goal of promotion. The honeymoon period is well and truly over. Now we will see how good Adkins the manager really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypochondriac Posted 25 February, 2011 Share Posted 25 February, 2011 agree - so include all of his games! Clearly better than rivals for 2nd! No you include 6 games which is the accepted way to measure short term form and not just pick and choose what suits your argument Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 25 February, 2011 Share Posted 25 February, 2011 ok, want recent - use 4 games, takes us back to over a month ago, and the squad post transfer window - 8 points. Not saying we really should use 4 games any more than any other period, but shows how silly it is to get stressed with the 6 game form where a solitary defeat seperates us from rivals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldNick Posted 25 February, 2011 Share Posted 25 February, 2011 IMO the club have not used the loan/transfer window very well. There could be varying reasons why of course, ML will still to be agreed, NC not prepared to loosen the purse strings, NA happy with the squad but we really should have got a couple more in. I dont count players on the books not being sold or agreeing new contracts as a signing, and still feel we should have cashed in on OX and bought a couple of players who would make the difference. Whether these things are a criticism of NA and his ideas I'll leave for others to decide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
(not THE) Kevin Moore Posted 25 February, 2011 Share Posted 25 February, 2011 No you include 6 games which is the accepted way to measure short term form and not just pick and choose what suits your argument Mmmm, not sure this is statistically the most valid way, and who chose 6 games anyway? Generally, when analysing data, the larger the sample the more robust your findings because it smooths out the impact of 1 or 2 outliers. Obviously when it comes to form, which is often a temporary thing, then it becomes harder to decide what is right. The flipside of this is that if your last 6 games contained 1 or 2 games against good/in form teams then it will make form look worse, whereas if they were all weaker/out of form teams then it looks better. The trouble with 'form tables' is that they fail to take into account the form of the teams you've played in that time, which will inevitably have an impact. My feeling is that the longer term view gives us the most sensible indication of how Adkins is doing, ie the sample taken from day 1 because it smoothes out the outlying data (like results against the like of Peterborough and Tranmere as well as the 6-0 etc), and that tends to show that form since he got here is acceptable and if this form carries over into our remaining games (including the games in hand then we'll be fine!!). Bit of a long-winded and convoluted post that but I hope it mostly makes sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super_Uwe Posted 25 February, 2011 Share Posted 25 February, 2011 I wish we were beginning to pull away from the rest of the teams around us, but I guess it's just going to be a long, hard run-in. Only time will tell but that 0-0 to Hartlepool might come in handy later on. I am never a fan of having games in hand, but IF we do manage to win them then we should be in second outright. At least it's still well within our hands. We have the goal difference to boot as well and if it is close then we will be very grateful for that. As I have said all along, if we scrape into 6th and win the playoffs then that is all that matters. The end result will be the same even if the journey there is not as simple as we'd have liked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madruss Posted 25 February, 2011 Share Posted 25 February, 2011 Mmmm, not sure this is statistically the most valid way, and who chose 6 games anyway? Generally, when analysing data, the larger the sample the more robust your findings because it smooths out the impact of 1 or 2 outliers. Obviously when it comes to form, which is often a temporary thing, then it becomes harder to decide what is right. The flipside of this is that if your last 6 games contained 1 or 2 games against good/in form teams then it will make form look worse, whereas if they were all weaker/out of form teams then it looks better. The trouble with 'form tables' is that they fail to take into account the form of the teams you've played in that time, which will inevitably have an impact. My feeling is that the longer term view gives us the most sensible indication of how Adkins is doing, ie the sample taken from day 1 because it smoothes out the outlying data (like results against the like of Peterborough and Tranmere as well as the 6-0 etc), and that tends to show that form since he got here is acceptable and if this form carries over into our remaining games (including the games in hand then we'll be fine!!). Bit of a long-winded and convoluted post that but I hope it mostly makes sense? This makes perfect sense, particularly to those stats nerds among us! Adkins is doing a good job, it's a far from perfect job, but we WILL go up automatically. After that, Adkins' credentials will really be tested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 25 February, 2011 Share Posted 25 February, 2011 Mmmm, not sure this is statistically the most valid way, and who chose 6 games anyway? Generally, when analysing data, the larger the sample the more robust your findings because it smooths out the impact of 1 or 2 outliers. Obviously when it comes to form, which is often a temporary thing, then it becomes harder to decide what is right. The flipside of this is that if your last 6 games contained 1 or 2 games against good/in form teams then it will make form look worse, whereas if they were all weaker/out of form teams then it looks better. The trouble with 'form tables' is that they fail to take into account the form of the teams you've played in that time, which will inevitably have an impact. My feeling is that the longer term view gives us the most sensible indication of how Adkins is doing, ie the sample taken from day 1 because it smoothes out the outlying data (like results against the like of Peterborough and Tranmere as well as the 6-0 etc), and that tends to show that form since he got here is acceptable and if this form carries over into our remaining games (including the games in hand then we'll be fine!!). Bit of a long-winded and convoluted post that but I hope it mostly makes sense? Well put - what I seem to have been failing to get across Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pat from Poole Posted 25 February, 2011 Share Posted 25 February, 2011 IMO the club have not used the loan/transfer window very well. There could be varying reasons why of course, ML will still to be agreed, NC not prepared to loosen the purse strings, NA happy with the squad but we really should have got a couple more in. I dont count players on the books not being sold or agreeing new contracts as a signing, and still feel we should have cashed in on OX and bought a couple of players who would make the difference. Whether these things are a criticism of NA and his ideas I'll leave for others to decide. Completely agree with all of this. I also fear we will rue not selling Chamberlain last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 25 February, 2011 Share Posted 25 February, 2011 (edited) Completely agree with all of this. I also fear we will rue not selling Chamberlain last month. How could we sell Chamberlain last month?? NC had said that it wasn't going to happen so it didn't happen.I sometimes get the impression that if he has said something then it's what will be,no matter how sensible (or not) acting to the contrary might seem. Anyway it really depends on how AC performs for us for the rest of the season, I sincerely regret not signing a front line striker but surely we could have done that anyway if it had been so desired,we have money right ? :smug:so what AOC would have to do with that equation I can't quite see. Edited 25 February, 2011 by Window Cleaner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 25 February, 2011 Share Posted 25 February, 2011 Huge credit to both Adkins and Cortese that they both rejected advances for Ox-C and also ensured he was happy to stay - as with Lallana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smirking_Saint Posted 25 February, 2011 Share Posted 25 February, 2011 It's horses for courses though, i'd start with Barnard every time on a wet ,cold February night away from home when the match is going to be a battle first, passing football second. Gully is a good footballer but not going to be at his best in those conditions. Adkins seems to preach the horses for courses but not practise it. Yes I completely agree with this, in the same vein as you would play Jaidi against large hulking CF but probably (arguably) seaborne against smaller quicker strikers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goalie66 Posted 25 February, 2011 Share Posted 25 February, 2011 I must admit that I am getting tired of the same old cliches "All about winning a game of football" "smiles on their faces" "lot of positives" that gets regurgitated like some reflex action to a microphone under his nose. I feel he is becoming totally predictable with substitutions and the fear of failure is wafting more than the confidence of success. Still he will be judged on whether we get promoted. If yes he will stay . If no he will go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugenhagen Posted 25 February, 2011 Share Posted 25 February, 2011 and that is what those posts show he is doing! I do agree NickG, I just thought Saint Lard made a good, clear and unbiased point in this discussion. As everyone here I wish we had taken a few more points so far, but as it stands, I believe it will be very hard for other teams than Brighton to finish above us at the end of the season (based on what we have done since Adkins arrived). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjii Posted 25 February, 2011 Share Posted 25 February, 2011 I must admit that I am getting tired of the same old cliches "All about winning a game of football" "smiles on their faces" "lot of positives" that gets regurgitated like some reflex action to a microphone under his nose. I feel he is becoming totally predictable with substitutions and the fear of failure is wafting more than the confidence of success. Still he will be judged on whether we get promoted. If yes he will stay . If no he will go. Doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saint lard Posted 26 February, 2011 Share Posted 26 February, 2011 Mmmmm..... http://www.saintsfc.co.uk/page/NewsDetail/0,,10280~2302451,00.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 26 February, 2011 Share Posted 26 February, 2011 (edited) Mmmmm..... http://www.saintsfc.co.uk/page/NewsDetail/0,,10280~2302451,00.html He's hoping that's all, I'm always hoping either to find a brown paper bag with a couple of millions euros or get gang banged when I'm running past the local convent but then again it's not extremely likely. Edited 26 February, 2011 by Window Cleaner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deppo Posted 26 February, 2011 Share Posted 26 February, 2011 No you include 6 games which is the accepted way to measure short term form and not just pick and choose what suits your argument hypochondriac is right. The accepted way to measure short term form is 6 games. It's in the football punditry rule book. It's accepted and if nobody can see that then they clearly don't know what is the accepted way to measure short term form. It's 6 games. 6 games is the accepted measurement for short term form. Not 5 games. Not 7 games. That would be ludicrous! 7 games? Ha! How can you measure short term form in 7 games? It wouldn't be accepted. It's unacceptable! You can't measure short term success on 7 games. Sometimes I wonder what planet people are living on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypochondriac Posted 26 February, 2011 Share Posted 26 February, 2011 And Adkins actually states there that his aim is to win games IN AN EXCITING WAY. We are failing to do that in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deppo Posted 26 February, 2011 Share Posted 26 February, 2011 What is more exciting than getting there on the last game of the season? It would be less exciting if we ran away with the League and knew we were getting promoted in March. Make your mind up, hypochandriac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldNick Posted 26 February, 2011 Share Posted 26 February, 2011 hypochondriac is right. The accepted way to measure short term form is 6 games. It's in the football punditry rule book. It's accepted and if nobody can see that then they clearly don't know what is the accepted way to measure short term form. It's 6 games. 6 games is the accepted measurement for short term form. Not 5 games. Not 7 games. That would be ludicrous! 7 games? Ha! How can you measure short term form in 7 games? It wouldn't be accepted. It's unacceptable! You can't measure short term success on 7 games. Sometimes I wonder what planet people are living on? did you take that from the instruction book of the Holy hand-grenade in the Life of Brian Deppo ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 26 February, 2011 Share Posted 26 February, 2011 And Adkins actually states there that his aim is to win games IN AN EXCITING WAY. We are failing to do that in general. Today sounded very exciting. 1 defeat in about 11 now is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivan Katalinic's 'tache Posted 26 February, 2011 Share Posted 26 February, 2011 His changes today won us the game. Schneiderlin started doing the simple give and gos in midfield and Barnard more of a cutting edge up front. Deserves credit for those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypochondriac Posted 26 February, 2011 Share Posted 26 February, 2011 Today sounded very exciting. 1 defeat in about 11 now is it? Good result. Lets hope we can become more consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
channonball Posted 26 February, 2011 Share Posted 26 February, 2011 He does deserve credit for the changes today. Shame he didn't make them on Tuesday or start with that team today. I'm not convinced Adkins knows what his best 11 is - hopefully he is after now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alpine_saint Posted 26 February, 2011 Share Posted 26 February, 2011 He does deserve credit for the changes today. Shame he didn't make them on Tuesday or start with that team today. I'm not convinced Adkins knows what his best 11 is - hopefully he is after now! I would like to know what his issue with giving Barnard a longer game is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypochondriac Posted 26 February, 2011 Share Posted 26 February, 2011 Today showed how important Barnard and Schneiderlin are to the team. Both deserve a go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jam Posted 26 February, 2011 Share Posted 26 February, 2011 I would like to know what his issue with giving Barnard a longer game is. Guly's better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperMikey Posted 26 February, 2011 Share Posted 26 February, 2011 I would like to know what his issue with giving Barnard a longer game is. Guly is a better passer of the ball and drops back deeper than Barney, giving us an extra man in midfield when we need it. When the opposition is on the attack Guly can drop back into the 'hole', allowing our central midfielders to drop back slightly deeper in order to help out in defence. With all our players playing slightly deeper we can pass the ball out from the back rather than hoofing it out up to our strikers much higher up the pitch. Barney is more of an out-and-out striker than Guly, and isn't as comfortable in midfield, which can be a hinderance in a short-passing game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deppo Posted 26 February, 2011 Share Posted 26 February, 2011 I would like to know what his issue with giving Barnard a longer game is. Exactly. What does he know about his squad and team that we don't, eh? It's just not good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deppo Posted 26 February, 2011 Share Posted 26 February, 2011 Guly is a better passer of the ball and drops back deeper than Barney, giving us an extra man in midfield when we need it. When the opposition is on the attack Guly can drop back into the 'hole', allowing our central midfielders to drop back slightly deeper in order to help out in defence. With all our players playing slightly deeper we can pass the ball out from the back rather than hoofing it out up to our strikers much higher up the pitch. Barney is more of an out-and-out striker than Guly, and isn't as comfortable in midfield, which can be a hinderance in a short-passing game. That's exactly what I'd expect you tough guys to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corky morris Posted 26 February, 2011 Share Posted 26 February, 2011 I find it funny that Adkins is getting so many plaudits for his substitutions today..................He should have started with Morgan & Barnard in the bloody first place!!!!! Also - why do we have no one up for corners???? Come on Adkins, 3-1 up at home & all the men are back for one of their corners............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hutch Posted 26 February, 2011 Share Posted 26 February, 2011 I think Nigel's doing a pretty good job since he got here. Not as good as NC, but not bad. In the last 24 games we've picked up exactly the same number of points as Brighton, who, according to some on here, are having a great season. But I do wish he would either play our players in their best position, or not at all. It doesn't do their confidence, or the team's, any good to play people out of position. The squad's big enough not to have to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guan 2.0 Posted 26 February, 2011 Share Posted 26 February, 2011 I would like to know what his issue with giving Barnard a longer game is. Maybe because Barnard might be doing bird in a little while he doen't want the team to get used to playing around his style? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minsk Posted 26 February, 2011 Share Posted 26 February, 2011 I find it funny that Adkins is getting so many plaudits for his substitutions today..................He should have started with Morgan & Barnard in the bloody first place!!!!! Also - why do we have no one up for corners???? Come on Adkins, 3-1 up at home & all the men are back for one of their corners............. Yeh, why the Hell should we be defending a 2 goal lead at home? Playing in such a manner there is no way we could go on to win 4-1 is there? .........Oh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypochondriac Posted 26 February, 2011 Share Posted 26 February, 2011 Yeh, why the Hell should we be defending a 2 goal lead at home? Playing in such a manner there is no way we could go on to win 4-1 is there? .........Oh! I agree, no complaints from me for a decent victory today. I only hope that we can keep up that consistency and pull clear into second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 26 February, 2011 Share Posted 26 February, 2011 Funnily enough I don't think the substitutions made much difference. We completely dominated for all but 5 minutes and created plenty of good changes before and after Barnard got on the pitch. Swindon just weren't very good and we forced them into mistakes - they got a 5 minute flurry of confidence when Harding ballsed up (twice) and they had a couple of efforts they barely deserved, scoring from one that was 90% down to Harding and about 10% Kelvin not expecting the kind of shot he got. Guly was our best player up to the point he was taken off IMHO and someone I was with saw they said he got a knock just before, so not convinced it was tactical. Not sure Schneiderlin wasn't also due to Chaplow running out of steam again - he ended up on the right when Gobern came on, which does suggest he wasn't really part of the plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan17 Posted 26 February, 2011 Share Posted 26 February, 2011 Guly's better. Are you kidding me? I would pick Barney over Guly every time. But then I guess thats why football is a matter of opinion.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jam Posted 27 February, 2011 Share Posted 27 February, 2011 Are you kidding me? I would pick Barney over Guly every time. But then I guess thats why football is a matter of opinion.......... I think Barney's an excellent striker and finisher at this level and his work rate is great. But for me Guli offers more to the team. He has pace, height, skill and vision. There was a great moment in the first half when one of our players cleared the ball to him and his control allowed him the space to then okay a long pass out to Alex (I think) and we were on the attack. I don't think anyone else in our side would have been able to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
croydonsaint Posted 27 February, 2011 Share Posted 27 February, 2011 If we mantain our current form of just under 2 pooints per game we will definately achieve automatic promotion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
croydonsaint Posted 27 February, 2011 Share Posted 27 February, 2011 sorry i meant points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alain Perrin Posted 27 February, 2011 Share Posted 27 February, 2011 You can't have it both ways. You either pick a team to counteract the oppositions strengths and exploit their weaknesses, or you pick the same 11 blindly. The way some people on this board go on is hypocritical - one of the biggest criticisms of Pardew was, "no Plan B"; when Adkins changes things, "he should have started like that". I like Barnard and would probably start with him more often, but I also think that his high energy style is helpful when the other team have tired a bit. Adkins also probably has one eye on an impending court case that may cause Barney to be unavailable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VectisSaint Posted 27 February, 2011 Share Posted 27 February, 2011 Funnily enough I don't think the substitutions made much difference. Morgan made a huge difference, though personally I would have taken Hammond off who was having a mare up to that point, looked completely dozy. After MS came on Hammond did improve markedly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PokingFun Posted 27 February, 2011 Share Posted 27 February, 2011 Over the whole season so far yes but we had those 2 early home defeats on the counter before NA came here. Since then we're pretty solid at home and less so away. When you look at our remaining away games some of them are a bit of a worry, Orient,Rochdale,Charlton,Brighton,Bournemouth all sides who still fancy their chances of getting something out of this season,that will change as time goes on but if we just maintain our recent away form we'll be totally reliant on our home games to get us up. Last 6 games away = 12 points .... keep that up for the remainder of the season and we will be promoted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PokingFun Posted 27 February, 2011 Share Posted 27 February, 2011 ok, want recent - use 4 games, takes us back to over a month ago, and the squad post transfer window - 8 points. Not saying we really should use 4 games any more than any other period, but shows how silly it is to get stressed with the 6 game form where a solitary defeat seperates us from rivals. Out of interest, Kevin Pullein uses 32 games as the optimal period for deciding a team's form / ability over another team. 4-8 games is too short a statistical sample. I'm just pleased we are winning / drawing games even though were not hitting top form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dellgirl Posted 27 February, 2011 Share Posted 27 February, 2011 Adkins has been put under more pressure since we kept our young talented players in the transfer window,no doubt with the promise of good times to come. The last two home matches have seen him looking a very worried man,only after the two quick goals did the colour come back to his cheeks yesterday. I still think that ,even if we go up,a name would have inspired more faith in players and fans. Has he the respect of the senior men,who have seen many differing styles of management? If his interviews are replicated in training directions I worry.If he is using the naughty step for players that find his style uninspiring he needs to up the volume and get us out of this league pronto. The players are good enough is he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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