Anyone else starting to worry about fixture pile-up ?

[Dark Munster]

worry ye not .. as long as we get into a winning habit the points will come thick and fast... we will be like a well oiled machine ...the strength in depth thing will hopefully show its worth as well . I once managed a side in the old Hampshire league div 1 and we had 17 games to play in 6 weeks .. we won 14 and drew 3 of them to win the title coming behind from about 7th place pipping the likes of Netley Central , Blackfield and Langley, Fleetlands and Moneyfields in the process .. ah they were the days lol

 

You finished above Netley Central? I'm impressed.

[SNSUN]

Doesn't anybody smoke weed anymore? Que sera sera... Take it one game at a time, concentrate on winning, and the league position takes care of itself. Despite being historically adept at shooting ourselves in the foot when it really matters, there's no reason why this Saints team can't go unbeaten for the rest of the season.

[SaintBobby]

I am not a gambler, so dont really understand the intricacies of betting, but I am always bemused by people citing betting odds as evidence of what is going to happen.

 

Surely the odds demonstrate nothing more that Saints fans are feeling very confident or loyal and are willing to put their money behind the team, in numbers, hence causing the bookies to reduce the odds and limit their risk ? How does this reflect the experienced and considered assessment of the state of play of the teams ?

 

For any remotely major sporting event (and, yes, League One counts), the amount of optimistic fan money is swiftly matched by professional gamblers - or canny amateurs - swooping on odds that are deemed attractive.

 

In these relatively liquid markets, the odds very swiftly move back into credible balance.

 

For example, if those who you characterise as "Walter Mitty" Saints fans have been piling on money on Saints to win the League, this would lead to the odds on Brighton drifting out to unrealistically attractive levels and "neutral"/"objective" gamblers snapping these up.

 

A quick look at Betfair's odds on the League One title show that over £500,000 has been staked on the winner (and that's just on this one website). Saints are at 3.45 to win the title (i.e. a £10 stake yields £44.50) and Brighton are 1.75 (i.e. a £10 stake yields £17.50). As others have said, this equates to the markets saying Brighton have about a 50% of winning the title and Saints about 25%.

 

In terms of achieving promotion by any means, Brighton are 1.27 and Saints are 1.56.

 

Saints price has come in a bit since Saturday - that is to say that since the Rochdale game was abandoned (and given other results went broadly our way), the markets believe Southampton have a slightly greater chance of promotion than this time last week.

 

Put another way, amongst the thousands and thousands of people betting upon League One - no one seems to take your "fixture pile up problem" remotely seriously.

 

If you're right and everyone else is wrong, you can clean up, of course.

 

You think Brighton are nailed on certainties to win the title? Great, you can nearly double your money by backing them at 1.75. Backing what you consider to be a certain outcome at about evens is a no brainer. Over £80,000 has been staked on Betfair this season on Brighton winning the title - not a single penny from a single punter at any stage this season has been bet at odds shorter than 1.7. In layman's terms, this means no one - absolutely no one at all - has ever rated Brighton's chances of winning the title at greater than 60%.

 

Similarly, if you think Southampton will fail to be promoted this season, you can "lay" odds on Saints. The markets think Saints have a 2 in 3 chance of going up. If you think that's over-stated, you can clean up here too.

 

It's literally free money....

 

Even if you're not a betting man, what these odds show is that you're wrong to consider that the typical levels of "optimism" shown on here are just the rantings of a delusional few Saints fans. A position of "Saints to win the title" is a c.25% shot and "Saints to get promoted is a c. 65% shot" is the prevailing view of many thousands of people who have staked many millions of pounds on the outcome.

 

You might yet prove to be right in your gloomy predictions of course, but it's you who is enormously and dramatically out-of-step with the norm.

[suewhistle]

To answer the OP's original question: mildly but not enough to start a thread about it or comment at any length. SaintBobby - what odds would you give me on Alpine asking a positive question? I don't suppose there's really a market in a one-horse race?

[The9]

When I said "everyone knows this is about 2nd place now" obviously I was referring to non-Walter Mitty characters not living in a delusional world of make-beleive. I especially like this one :

 

 

 

So let's assume that Brighton are affected by fixture pile-up as badly as us (I dont agree with this, they are in the driving seat and will be more relaxed, but sod it, lets assume it). Has anyone else notice they have 8 more points than us ???

 

Really, some of the responses are utterly non-sensical on here.

 

Brighton are nothing special, I watched them get stuffed on Saturday by a mediocre but big Stoke team and their weaknesses at set pieces and down their left flank were all too obvious.

 

"More relaxed" ? Let's hope so, they could just as easily get overconfident as play more effectively.

 

The long and short of it is they have the same number of games to play as Saints but you don't seem to think they'll drop any points because of it, whilst you DO think Saints will. It's a ridiculous double standard whether you think the 8 point gap is too much or not.

[The9]

Has it been said on this thread yet??

 

One of the great football truisms is :-

 

"It's better to have the points than the games in hand!!"

 

Which is fine if there's any chance the season won't be completed with all teams playing the same number of matches...

[The9]

Rochdale on April 12th as expected (and the best scenario for Saints). http://www.saintsfc.co.uk/page/NewsDetail/0,,10280~2299378,00.html

[The9]

At the end of the day you are talking about 2 or 3 extra games over a 2 1/2 month period. If a team cant cope with that then they dont deserve to go up. It is a fact that the more successful and better side you are the more games you play, for example PL clubs will be expected to reach the latter stages of all cup competitions. I dont hear Man U or Arsenal fans *****ing that their chances of winning the league are serverely dented as they now have have extra games to play because Chelsea are out of th FA cup and they are not and all other teams competing for the league wil set out to injure all thier players.

 

Agreed, not that I'm keen on stockpiling squad members, but just as Arsenal, Chelsea and Man U have the financial resources to challenge for the League, FA Cup, League Cup and Champions League, we've got the resources to have two competent players in every position to enable us to manage playing 2 games a week, unlike most other clubs in the division, who are taking risks once you get past their preferred 13 or 14 players.

 

There's always the possibility of an injury crisis for any team no matter how deep their squad is, but if anything the fixture pile up for everyone works in our favour - others will be risking untried or "past it" players, but the only teenage kid we have thrown in at the deep end turns out to be worth about £10m and we have someone in his position on loan at a Premier League club !

[Deppo]

Tough guys? Aw, thanks I'm flattered. I'd never describe myself as tough but I'm sure in your mixed up little head that counts as a compliment.

 

FWIW I'm pretty happy with where we are, if all we have to worry about is being in the playoffs, playing pretty well, winning and by winning our games in hand be in second place with (albeit only a 'bit' of) room to spare then it can't be all that bad can it? If all we have to worry about are 'what if's' then I'll take that. I'm sure those around us are more worried about us than we are them.

 

I don't think we need to sign anyone because we do appear to have options now and a bit of variety, we're already going through the process of integrating Forte and NGuessan into the squad, I feel that adding more players to the mix 'just in case' could do more harm than good.

 

Typical tough guy response.

[Deppo]

For any remotely major sporting event (and, yes, League One counts), the amount of optimistic fan money is swiftly matched by professional gamblers - or canny amateurs - swooping on odds that are deemed attractive.

 

In these relatively liquid markets, the odds very swiftly move back into credible balance.

 

For example, if those who you characterise as "Walter Mitty" Saints fans have been piling on money on Saints to win the League, this would lead to the odds on Brighton drifting out to unrealistically attractive levels and "neutral"/"objective" gamblers snapping these up.

 

A quick look at Betfair's odds on the League One title show that over £500,000 has been staked on the winner (and that's just on this one website). Saints are at 3.45 to win the title (i.e. a £10 stake yields £44.50) and Brighton are 1.75 (i.e. a £10 stake yields £17.50). As others have said, this equates to the markets saying Brighton have about a 50% of winning the title and Saints about 25%.

 

In terms of achieving promotion by any means, Brighton are 1.27 and Saints are 1.56.

 

Saints price has come in a bit since Saturday - that is to say that since the Rochdale game was abandoned (and given other results went broadly our way), the markets believe Southampton have a slightly greater chance of promotion than this time last week.

 

Put another way, amongst the thousands and thousands of people betting upon League One - no one seems to take your "fixture pile up problem" remotely seriously.

 

If you're right and everyone else is wrong, you can clean up, of course.

 

You think Brighton are nailed on certainties to win the title? Great, you can nearly double your money by backing them at 1.75. Backing what you consider to be a certain outcome at about evens is a no brainer. Over £80,000 has been staked on Betfair this season on Brighton winning the title - not a single penny from a single punter at any stage this season has been bet at odds shorter than 1.7. In layman's terms, this means no one - absolutely no one at all - has ever rated Brighton's chances of winning the title at greater than 60%.

 

Similarly, if you think Southampton will fail to be promoted this season, you can "lay" odds on Saints. The markets think Saints have a 2 in 3 chance of going up. If you think that's over-stated, you can clean up here too.

 

It's literally free money....

 

Even if you're not a betting man, what these odds show is that you're wrong to consider that the typical levels of "optimism" shown on here are just the rantings of a delusional few Saints fans. A position of "Saints to win the title" is a c.25% shot and "Saints to get promoted is a c. 65% shot" is the prevailing view of many thousands of people who have staked many millions of pounds on the outcome.

 

You might yet prove to be right in your gloomy predictions of course, but it's you who is enormously and dramatically out-of-step with the norm.

 

That's exactly what expect to hear from you tough guys.

[Big Bad Bob]

Which is fine if there's any chance the season won't be completed with all teams playing the same number of matches...

 

Now if that isn't a completely warped way of trying to twist a perfectly sensible statement!!

[The9]

Now if that isn't a completely warped way of trying to twist a perfectly sensible statement!!

 

I try.

 

I also happen not to believe being, for instance, 1 point ahead having played all your games whilst your rivals have a match left ALWAYS puts you in a stronger position than your rivals.

 

It depends on the circumstances, particularly the probability the team with the games in hand will maximise their return from those matches.

[The9]

For any remotely major sporting event (and, yes, League One counts), the amount of optimistic fan money is swiftly matched by professional gamblers - or canny amateurs - swooping on odds that are deemed attractive.

 

In these relatively liquid markets, the odds very swiftly move back into credible balance.

 

For example, if those who you characterise as "Walter Mitty" Saints fans have been piling on money on Saints to win the League, this would lead to the odds on Brighton drifting out to unrealistically attractive levels and "neutral"/"objective" gamblers snapping these up.

 

A quick look at Betfair's odds on the League One title show that over £500,000 has been staked on the winner (and that's just on this one website). Saints are at 3.45 to win the title (i.e. a £10 stake yields £44.50) and Brighton are 1.75 (i.e. a £10 stake yields £17.50). As others have said, this equates to the markets saying Brighton have about a 50% of winning the title and Saints about 25%.

 

In terms of achieving promotion by any means, Brighton are 1.27 and Saints are 1.56.

 

Saints price has come in a bit since Saturday - that is to say that since the Rochdale game was abandoned (and given other results went broadly our way), the markets believe Southampton have a slightly greater chance of promotion than this time last week.

 

Put another way, amongst the thousands and thousands of people betting upon League One - no one seems to take your "fixture pile up problem" remotely seriously.

 

If you're right and everyone else is wrong, you can clean up, of course.

 

You think Brighton are nailed on certainties to win the title? Great, you can nearly double your money by backing them at 1.75. Backing what you consider to be a certain outcome at about evens is a no brainer. Over £80,000 has been staked on Betfair this season on Brighton winning the title - not a single penny from a single punter at any stage this season has been bet at odds shorter than 1.7. In layman's terms, this means no one - absolutely no one at all - has ever rated Brighton's chances of winning the title at greater than 60%.

 

Similarly, if you think Southampton will fail to be promoted this season, you can "lay" odds on Saints. The markets think Saints have a 2 in 3 chance of going up. If you think that's over-stated, you can clean up here too.

 

It's literally free money....

 

Even if you're not a betting man, what these odds show is that you're wrong to consider that the typical levels of "optimism" shown on here are just the rantings of a delusional few Saints fans. A position of "Saints to win the title" is a c.25% shot and "Saints to get promoted is a c. 65% shot" is the prevailing view of many thousands of people who have staked many millions of pounds on the outcome.

 

You might yet prove to be right in your gloomy predictions of course, but it's you who is enormously and dramatically out-of-step with the norm.

 

I like your style, but expect a snarky response from Alpine isolating one arguable phrase to deflect from the crushing weight of factual evidence against him.

 

Actually he'll probably just reply to this instead.

[(not THE) Kevin Moore]

I like your style, but expect a snarky response from Alpine isolating one arguable phrase to deflect from the crushing weight of factual evidence against him.

 

Actually he'll probably just reply to this instead.

 

What have you done!!!!