The World will become racked by famine, mass migrations and riots...

[buctootim]

According to slightly sensationlised media reports of this new international government study.

 

A growing global population to 9bn, competition for food, fresh water and energy could cause major civil unrest. There is limited scope for increasing agricultural land and marine fisheries are fully exploited. Food prices will rise, reversing a 30 year pattern of becoming cheaper.

 

Any alternatives to letting increasing numbers of people die of hunger or migrating north?

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/bargains-and-rip-offs/household-bills/article.html?in_article_id=521726&in_page_id=510

http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresight/our-work/projects/current-projects/global-food-and-farming-futures/reports-and-publications

[hypochondriac]

Stop benefits of people with more than three children.

[Verbal]

Stop benefits for people with almost 10,000 posts.

[buctootim]

Stop benefits of people with more than three children.

 

Don't think its the UK they are concerned about. We are rich enough to pay the higher prices and have plenty of water. Places like Pakistan, India, and Northern Africa could become very volatile though driven by drought, and hunger.

[hypochondriac]

Don't think its the UK they are concerned about. We are rich enough to pay the higher prices and have plenty of water. Places like Pakistan, India, and Northern Africa could become very volatile though driven by drought, and hunger.

 

Not sure what can be done. Supermarkets cutting down waste would be a good start and a small thing that this country could do to contribute.

[hypochondriac]

Stop benefits for people with almost 10,000 posts.

 

Thanks for that.

[buctootim]

Not sure what can be done. Supermarkets cutting down waste would be a good start and a small thing that this country could do to contribute.

 

I suppose I'm interested in whether people in the UK would be prepared to compromise their own lifestyles (less meat, less exotic fruit and veg - more basic foods) plus pay more in overseas aid or not. I suspect they wouldnt, beyond sending a few pounds in donations when there is a acute famine. It also raises the question of it is it right / desirable to try to curb population growth through financial incentives.

Edited 26 January, 2011 by buctootim

[Saint_clark]

Get to work on colonising Mars then ffs.

[scotty]

Get to work on colonising Mars then ffs.

 

yeh, lets f*ck that up as well

[Sheaf Saint]

Get to work on colonising Mars then ffs.

 

Yeah that's a brilliant idea, because there's millions of acres of arable land and fresh water on Mars isn't there.

 

 

 

Oh, hang on....

[Rory]

Hello? http://www.saintsweb.co.uk/showthread.php?27459-Planned-opolis

[Verbal]

Yeah that's a brilliant idea, because there's millions of acres of arable land and fresh water on Mars isn't there.

 

 

 

Oh, hang on....

 

Fresh water, yes.

[trousers]

It's just a finite planet in a finite universe people.

[Saint_clark]

Yeah that's a brilliant idea, because there's millions of acres of arable land and fresh water on Mars isn't there.

 

 

 

Oh, hang on....

 

OK then, just make Mars into a prison. Sorted.

[JackFrost]

Thought we were already at this stage

[Sheaf Saint]

Fresh water, yes.

 

Only in ice form. It's not exactly easily accessible.

[buctootim]

It's just a finite planet in a finite universe people.

 

With an ever increasing number of people. At some stage something has to give.

[Verbal]

Only in ice form. It's not exactly easily accessible.

 

Well nor is Mars! If you've gone through all the trouble of going there, you're probably going to go to bits where water (ice) is available, especially if you're colonising it. There is plenty of speculation, incidentally, that there are substantial quantities of subsurface water on Mars - and some evidence of this from the photographs and samples of recent landers.

[pap]

The greatest failure of humanity has been its inability to determine how resources are shared. Capitalism just isn't the answer. Nation states don't help.

 

The focus needs to be on global problem solving, irrespective of cost. It is a travesty that millions of people die every year in third-world countries through starvation or easily preventible or curable diseases, and a damning indictment on Western societies that we can just sit back and ignore it.

[Essruu]

A famine in those overpopulated countries would help them to reduce the drain on their resources. Maybe it will wake them up to what they're doing and in future reproduce and live within their means. We should just let nature take its course.

[buctootim]

A famine in those overpopulated countries would help them to reduce the drain on their resources. Maybe it will wake them up to what they're doing and in future reproduce and live within their means. We should just let nature take its course.

 

Not as simple as that though, because most food production is commoditised now - ie it is sold to the highest bidder. So Kenya for example might produce loads of food but it doesnt stop the Kenyans being outbid for it by Europeans. If world food trade stopped we'd be amongst the ones most ****ed because there is no way this island can feed 60 million people.

Edited 26 January, 2011 by buctootim

[Saintandy666]

I wouldn't be so sure to come to this conclusion. I think we might get our arses into gear eventually, organise ourselves better and have greater use of GM crops. IF we did those two things we wouldn't have a problem at all. However, the report could still become true yet.

[hypochondriac]

The greatest failure of humanity has been its inability to determine how resources are shared. Capitalism just isn't the answer. Nation states don't help.

 

The focus needs to be on global problem solving, irrespective of cost. It is a travesty that millions of people die every year in third-world countries through starvation or easily preventible or curable diseases, and a damning indictment on Western societies that we can just sit back and ignore it.

 

Also a tragedy that people is LEDC's have a ridiculous birth rate.

[Joensuu]

The rise in food prices in recent years is down to a combination of stock market speculation on food, and to a lesser extent the US switching to Biofuel crops - linking food prices with oil prices. The third factor is the rise of a Chinese middle-class, and their growing taste for meat.

 

I'm as pro-environment as they come, and I can se Biofuel for the green wash that it is - it works only on scrub land that is currently unproductive, but doesn't work when arable land is taken out of food production.

 

So if we were more veggie and less Capitalist the world would be a better place.

[Verbal]

A famine in those overpopulated countries would help them to reduce the drain on their resources. Maybe it will wake them up to what they're doing and in future reproduce and live within their means. We should just let nature take its course.

 

This is pathetic.

 

So you would happily watch people starve to death - happy in the knowledge (such as it is) that their deaths and suffering would make your life more comfortable.

 

This place occasionally hits a low in moral turpitude - but you really win a prize.

 

It's also ignorant. The country with the highest population in the world isn't one that's going to fall victim to starvation anytime soon. In fact, it's the one that will very soon crush you and the dominance of the West in general - as it has many of the countries you THINK you're talking about.

[Saintandy666]

I fear even more for countries where AIDs is rampant. For example in South Africa over 50% of women at child bearing years has HIV, so a hell of a lot of people are going to die before they give birth, or give birth and then their children and them will die Everyone is going to be very old.

[Bath Saint]

I think you'll find that the most densely countries are mainly in Western Europe!

 

Don't worry, though. There's always Solyent Green

[Saintandy666]

I think you'll find that the most densely countries are mainly in Western Europe!

 

Don't worry, though. There's always Solyent Green

 

Europe's population as a whole however is decreasing. The problem is, countries like those in Western Europe and the USA have established a system where by we will pretty much always be fine for resources, at the expense of the rest of the world of course, but I do not worry for the UK in 50 years as much as I worry for countries such as China(which has yet to build up infrastructure) countries in Latin America and countries in Africa and such.

[pap]

Also a tragedy that people is LEDC's have a ridiculous birth rate.

 

Again, numerous factors at play. They would probably have less children if they had :-

 

a) better access to contraception and/or education

b) less outright lies from the Church about condoms spreading AIDS

c) the same level of confidence that we enjoy that their children will reach adulthood

[buctootim]

Again, numerous factors at play. They would probably have less children if they had :-

 

a) better access to contraception and/or education

b) less outright lies from the Church about condoms spreading AIDS

c) the same level of confidence that we enjoy that their children will reach adulthood

 

d) access to reliable banks

 

At present the only way many people in developing nations have to survive in old age is to have lots of children to look after them. Birth rates nearly always drop off dramatically when people have access to savings / pensions and contraception

[The9]

Look, unless we all want to go back to caves or stop treating the ill, we're going to get to critical mass at some point...

[pap]

We've been given all the tools to think our way out of this. What we need is the time. That means a lot less time trying to put Company X out of business or making magnate Y richer, and a bit more time coming up with solutions to problems; blank slate if need be.

[Petersfield Saint]

The greatest failure of humanity has been its inability to determine how resources are shared. Capitalism just isn't the answer. Nation states don't help.

 

The focus needs to be on global problem solving, irrespective of cost. It is a travesty that millions of people die every year in third-world countries through starvation or easily preventible or curable diseases, and a damning indictment on Western societies that we can just sit back and ignore it.

 

This

[Petersfield Saint]

The rise in food prices in recent years is down to a combination of stock market speculation on food, and to a lesser extent the US switching to Biofuel crops - linking food prices with oil prices. The third factor is the rise of a Chinese middle-class, and their growing taste for meat.

 

I'm as pro-environment as they come, and I can se Biofuel for the green wash that it is - it works only on scrub land that is currently unproductive, but doesn't work when arable land is taken out of food production.

 

So if we were more veggie and less Capitalist the world would be a better place.

 

Can't wait for Dune's response to this!

[Jones91]

Natural disasters will keep populations down in Asia.

[SuperMikey]

Malthus was right then. FWIW I think there will always be something to control the population, be it a natural disaster, pestilence, war, lack of resources, forced control of birth rate etc. but we are definitely heading towards a critical state, unless we do something drastic.

 

We talk about quickly growing populations in Africa and Asia, but with ageing populations in Western Europe and other first world regions, an easy way to deal with the problems caused by huge populations in poor areas is a lot of migration from third to first world nations. Dune et al wouldn't be too happy about it, but we need to spread the world's population out more evenly than it is at the moment, as Southern Asia and Central Africa will just become hives of poverty and disease in the next 50 years without intervention.

[dubai_phil]

Hmm dominoes falling.

 

First Tunisia, then Lebanon gets problems and now Egypt.

 

Facebook & Twitter lead the revolt against (corrupt) Authoritarian regimes out of touch with their people.

 

Yet the primary driver has been the increases in basic commodity prices, Flour & Bread in particular, but food in general

 

Control has been lost quickly and unexpectedly.

 

The dominoes keep falling, many of these countries export huge amounts of the fruit vegetables and flowers that the EU devour.

 

Will the Middle Classes in EU revolt when they find the price of their flowers trebling on Valentines Day?

 

Should valuable fertile land be producing life style/luxury products for the Western Middle Class or should it provide the basic commodity food stuffs for the population at prices they can afford? Should the world REALLY turn the wheat belts over to Bio-Fuels and let the west drive their cars while some poor african can't afford to buy wheat? Or should you drive cars and have a conscience and give them charity (often with strings).

 

Why should Consumerism be saved by natural disasters in Asia? That's a nasty opinion isn't it? Why not time for more floods heatwaves and droughts in Europe?

 

Use bio fuels, save the planet from Carbon emissions and starve some poor Africans by having to import more wheat and driving the prices up at the same time. Cool solution.......

[buctootim]

Hmm dominoes falling.

 

First Tunisia, then Lebanon gets problems and now Egypt.

 

Facebook & Twitter lead the revolt against (corrupt) Authoritarian regimes out of touch with their people.

 

Yet the primary driver has been the increases in basic commodity prices, Flour & Bread in particular, but food in general

 

Control has been lost quickly and unexpectedly.

 

The dominoes keep falling, many of these countries export huge amounts of the fruit vegetables and flowers that the EU devour.

 

Will the Middle Classes in EU revolt when they find the price of their flowers trebling on Valentines Day?

 

Should valuable fertile land be producing life style/luxury products for the Western Middle Class or should it provide the basic commodity food stuffs for the population at prices they can afford? Should the world REALLY turn the wheat belts over to Bio-Fuels and let the west drive their cars while some poor african can't afford to buy wheat? Or should you drive cars and have a conscience and give them charity (often with strings).

 

Why should Consumerism be saved by natural disasters in Asia? That's a nasty opinion isn't it? Why not time for more floods heatwaves and droughts in Europe?

 

Use bio fuels, save the planet from Carbon emissions and starve some poor Africans by having to import more wheat and driving the prices up at the same time. Cool solution.......

 

Good post Phil. Its to do with land ownership as well. If land is owned by local individual farmers they can raise their standard of living by growing high value cash crops which are sold to the developed world and generate enough money to feed their families, educate them and take care of health needs. If the land is owned by international agri-business companies and the locals only get to work as poorly paid labourers the rising price of wheat is disastrous and will lead to more unrest imo.

[dubai_phil]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8291470/Egypt-and-Tunisia-usher-in-the-new-era-of-global-food-revolutions.html

 

OK so dear old Ambrose has been going on and on about the end of the world for ages, but he sums up the bigger picture quite well.

 

Somebody somewhere has to start to think about the food supply.

 

And this part of the world, well, the dominoes are falling but be worried, this is a scenario that was foreseen some years ago. Our friends across the water in Iran will be exerting their influence and pushing the Religious Autocracy line.

 

Yemen next? Who cares? apart from the fact that the nutters will get an even freerer rein, but the Shia edges of Saudi, hmm now they are getting twitchy, and where is most of THEIR oil?

 

Well done Tony & Dubbya, you removed the only real barrier to Iranian influence and a lot of people told you so.

 

We're left to HOPE that the (well organised and funded) loony factions do NOT get a toe hold in these countries.

 

Could be a lot worse than messing up a few people's vacation plans