paulwantsapint Posted 12 January, 2011 Posted 12 January, 2011 If results go our way bournmouth lose fri night, brighton lose sat & we win we go top on sat how likely is it to happen? have a feeling that KD will out sprint AOC when promotion is guaranteed especially if he is opposite end of an away ground wanting to celebrate with us
Matthew Le God Posted 12 January, 2011 Posted 12 January, 2011 If results go our way bournmouth lose fri night, brighton lose sat & we win we go top on sat how likely is it to happen? In order for Saints to be top at 5pm on Saturday, what Bournemouth do on Friday night is irrelevant as they have fewer points than Saints. It needs a Saints win and Brighton defeat to happen.
SaintBobby Posted 12 January, 2011 Posted 12 January, 2011 How likely is it? Well, if we assume probabilities can be derived on bookies odds.... Brighton would have to lose to Peterborough. A Posh win is at 7/2 in most places. This implies a 22% probability. Additionally, Saints would have to win against Notts County. That's 1/2 in most bookies. This implies a probability of 67%. The chance of both happening is 22% x 67% = 14.8% (the Bournemouth result is irrelevant btw) Btw, in a major shift on the betting markets, you can now barely get evens on Saints winning the League come May. It's averaging 5/4. Saints to be promoted is running at about 2/5. Alpine and others may be tempted by the 500/1 you can get at bet365 on Saints being relegated ! :-) See oddschecker for more.... http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-one/winner
NickG Posted 12 January, 2011 Posted 12 January, 2011 didn't notice that we are at the exact half way stage, Brighton only get there on Sat. Plenty of time, part of me thinks it doesn't matter what happens Sat but it would really set the confidence up and perhaps assist in attracting championship level players if we were top.
beatlesaint Posted 12 January, 2011 Posted 12 January, 2011 Banana skin alert !!!!!!!!!! 100% agree !
Whitey Grandad Posted 12 January, 2011 Posted 12 January, 2011 I'd rather we were top at the end of the season, to be honest. I'm sure there will be twists and turns before then, but we've been heading in the right direction for some time and are steadily climbing the table. All we have to do is look after our own results and the rest will follow.
Saint Fan CaM Posted 13 January, 2011 Posted 13 January, 2011 All we can do is win our games and not worry about the rest of the pack. I think Brighton will beat Posh or at least draw, which means we'll not be going top Saturday. However, the way the fixtures are coming along, it will take a short amount of time to make up the ground.
thefunkygibbons Posted 13 January, 2011 Posted 13 January, 2011 Great position for us to be in, but with 23 games still to play, it is a marathon not a sprint
NorthamSteve Posted 13 January, 2011 Posted 13 January, 2011 How likely is it? Well, if we assume probabilities can be derived on bookies odds.... Brighton would have to lose to Peterborough. A Posh win is at 7/2 in most places. This implies a 22% probability. Additionally, Saints would have to win against Notts County. That's 1/2 in most bookies. This implies a probability of 67%. The chance of both happening is 22% x 67% = 14.8% (the Bournemouth result is irrelevant btw) Btw, in a major shift on the betting markets, you can now barely get evens on Saints winning the League come May. It's averaging 5/4. Saints to be promoted is running at about 2/5. Alpine and others may be tempted by the 500/1 you can get at bet365 on Saints being relegated ! :-) See oddschecker for more.... http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-one/winner Your maths is terrible, but you're close.
hutch Posted 13 January, 2011 Posted 13 January, 2011 I see this weekend more as an opportunity to put a bit of daylight between us and the play-off pack. Plenty of time to catch Brighton later.
trousers Posted 13 January, 2011 Posted 13 January, 2011 I see this weekend more as an opportunity to put a bit of daylight between us and the play-off pack. Plenty of time to catch Brighton later. Was just thinking the same. If Bournemouth fail to win tomorrow it gives us the opportunity to create a gap bigger than one defeat. Once we've got that cushion I can see us pulling away quite quickly as knowing they can't be caught even if we lose a game will give the players a further incentive to blow caution to the wind. Not that we're starting to count chickens of course...
SO16_Saint Posted 13 January, 2011 Posted 13 January, 2011 I see this weekend more as an opportunity to put a bit of daylight between us and the play-off pack. Plenty of time to catch Brighton later. Exactly. A Brighton win would do me nicely and again next wk
Secret Site Agent Posted 13 January, 2011 Posted 13 January, 2011 It's as simple as this. If wishes were horses, beggers would ride. It's as simple as that. Althoughthis enthusisam is like a red rag to a bull to others from Bourney and Bummy, as they think we are being arrogant. Then go on to say how they are going to walk the league.
Secret Site Agent Posted 13 January, 2011 Posted 13 January, 2011 I see this weekend more as an opportunity to put a bit of daylight between us and the play-off pack. Plenty of time to catch Brighton later. Also, This.
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