St. Marys Expansion

[slickmick]

But if St Mary's can't be increased due to traffic problems surely it makes sense to relocate rather than let the stadium hold back the club as it tries to progress.

 

Yes, I'd like a stadium in the city, however if this isn't feasible then I'd quite happily accept a relocation (within reason) that allows the club to compete at the highest possible level. Within the next 10 -20 years, a 32k stadium won't be in the top 20 largest stadiums in the top flight. Many other clubs have plans for expansion, Saints need to keep up!

 

Yeh right, Bolton, West Brom, Blackburn, Stoke, Birmingham, Fulham, Sunderland, Wolves, Wigan, Blackpool can't often get capacity as it is.

Neither could teams that have since been relegated.

Interest in the Premiership is slowly dieing along with the gates. We are not a big city club with a big following like the big 6 or 7 clubs and never will be.

[suewhistle]

Saints support is a bit of an unknown quantity, SNIP

 

See my comment above about what they expected for SMS and what happened. I think CBFry is being unduly pessimistic and Aintforever's post gives an indication of the wider interest. How many on here or in those 200,000 purchasers live outside the city itself? That reflects the wide ranging nature of the support. Let's face it, if we can get 30k against Exeter that's impressive by any standards and there hasn't really been much to set the pulse racing over the past few years, has there? Even in the Premiership we had few exciting players to watch in the latter years: Rory Delap ffs! In fact it's all been rather depressing. I agree that 40,000 is easily doable and the buzz of success is addictive so although we might be reaching some sort of natural limit there I don't think that it's a given.

 

Cortese will have access to all the records so he at least will have a good idea of our potential.

[Joensuu]

There was a (Deloitte?) survey about 8 years ago which ranked us the 14th biggest fanbase of UK clubs (is there anyone who can remember it or can provide me with a link?).

 

We certainly have the fanbase to carry substantially larger attendances. My guess is that demand depends upon the percieved quality of the game. Against lower Prem (say Blackpool) opposition I'd expect us to achieve c. 30k, mid prem (say Fulham) c. 35-40k, upper prem (say Arsenal) c. 45-50k. Obviously it's impossible to judge until you build a stadium big enough to find out.

[charlie saint]

...i'd really be interested to know how many in favour of an out of town stadium actually live in Southampton, my guess would be very few since for those that do it's the perfect solution.

 

If it helps - I'm not in favour of relocating the stadium, and I live in Kent. OK, I don't go to that many games, but the walk through town from the Grosvenor car park I use is the most pleasurable part of the journey (ok - give or take a bit of rain)... and the same afterwards.

 

As someone else said - the 15000 cars which would be in arriving and leaving the car park the out-of-town enormodome would make the whole excercise hellish.

 

As for the St Mary's = bland argument... that would be cured instantly if they rebuilt one or two of the stands.

 

No - I hope they stay, especially if they can regenerate the riverfront to make it a nicer place, develop the transport links a bit, and expand a stand or two.

[docker-p]

There was a (Deloitte?) survey about 8 years ago which ranked us the 14th biggest fanbase of UK clubs (is there anyone who can remember it or can provide me with a link?).

 

We certainly have the fanbase to carry substantially larger attendances. My guess is that demand depends upon the percieved quality of the game. Against lower Prem (say Blackpool) opposition I'd expect us to achieve c. 30k, mid prem (say Fulham) c. 35-40k, upper prem (say Arsenal) c. 45-50k. Obviously it's impossible to judge until you build a stadium big enough to find out.

I remember a similar survey (could have been the same one). It had us as the 18th biggest club in the UK, four scottish clubs in there, so that would tally with your 14th in England.

The survey was based on which club people said the followed as well as supported, so included people who never go to a game but just listen out for their clubs result etc were included.

I remember Man U were top, surprise surprise, with I think 4m supporters/followers, twice that of Liverpool in second place. Third and fourth were Celtic and Rangers, can't remember which way around.

In our 18th palace we were sandwiched between Hearts and Norwich.

The survey I saw was just the top 25. Noted for the absence was Portsmyth.

I think we boasted 350K followers/ supporters.

I don't know how they did the survey as they obviously didn't talk to 4m manu fans and 350K Saints fans so some sort of sampling went on.

[Joensuu]

If it helps - I'm not in favour of relocating the stadium, and I live in Kent. OK, I don't go to that many games, but the walk through town from the Grosvenor car park I use is the most pleasurable part of the journey (ok - give or take a bit of rain)... and the same afterwards.

 

As someone else said - the 15000 cars which would be in arriving and leaving the car park the out-of-town enormodome would make the whole excercise hellish.

 

I've been wondering if it might be possible to get the best of both worlds, i.e find a town centre location which also has good transport links. Stoneham is ideal for transport links, but I agree with those who say that the out of town location would change the atmosphere for the worse.

 

The best compromise location I can find is here:

 

 

Sure it would cost a bit to buy the land, but it's ideally located for both road and rail access (if you build a footbridge to the station, policing away fans might be much easier). Another downside is that Mountbatten Way is busy at the best of times, but I can't see a better location anywhere in the town centre.

 

Can anyone think of a better location?

[The Kraken]

If we're going to go for a city centre location then there really isn't a site that would be much better than what we have. Getting 30K to 40K people into and away from a city centre location in one hit is always going to be a logistical nightmare, no matter how good the transport links are. That site above from Joensuu would kill that road out of town, it's completely grid locked as it is with Ikea, throw in a football stadium and it would utter chaos.

 

I think our best bet is to stay where we are; I think our gates in the Prem reflected that we had a good inner city location. I think a Stoneham type development would see numbers drop off, a day at the football is more than just the game its the social aspect before and after, and without the options the city gives you with that I think it would be a major detraction for many to attend.

 

Gate money pales into insiginifiance in comparison with the TV money on offer from Sky; I personally don't think even with a good run of form in the top division that we'd justify a stadium much bigger than 40K. And certainly not for games not involving the top 4 or 5 clubs. In any case, the problem we will face with funding for a new or redeveloped ground is that football stadiums just aren't worth as much as they cost to build. The cost for our stadium was £32M, and as soon as it was built it was probably worth less than half that. Because it a totally unique facility that is of little good to anyone except the football team.

 

If we get back to the top I believe we'd be much better served maximising our current attendance before jumping head first into a ground development which doesn't give us an enormous lot more than we already have, but that will cost almost as much as the original cost of the stadium.

[RonManager]

I've been wondering if it might be possible to get the best of both worlds, i.e find a town centre location which also has good transport links. Stoneham is ideal for transport links, but I agree with those who say that the out of town location would change the atmosphere for the worse.

 

The best compromise location I can find is here:

 

 

Sure it would cost a bit to buy the land, but it's ideally located for both road and rail access (if you build a footbridge to the station, policing away fans might be much easier). Another downside is that Mountbatten Way is busy at the best of times, but I can't see a better location anywhere in the town centre.

 

Can anyone think of a better location?

 

There's a place just off Hill Lane, although it would mean knocking down some flats.

[benjii]

I don't buy into the notion that SMS has poor transport links (save for, perhaps, the small number of people with mobility difficulties who might need to park at it).

 

It is a 20 min walk from Soton Central and a 10-15 minute walk from numerous town centre car-parks. What do people want? A clear drive through to a heated, covered, concierge-serviced allocated space? A heli-pad on the roof? It's certainly much easier to get to, with more options, that many other grounds I've visited.

[docker-p]

A site near the Western Docks was ruled out originally as all the ground is reclaimed, and unsuitable for such a project without prohibitory expense underpinning.

[JustMike]

Stoneham anyone?

[The Kraken]

Stoneham anyone?

 

No thanks. For reasons I've stated above I think Stoneham would create a completely soulless footballing experience and have a detrimental impact on crowd numbers.

[100%Red&White]

I don't buy into the notion that SMS has poor transport links (save for, perhaps, the small number of people with mobility difficulties who might need to park at it).

 

It is a 20 min walk from Soton Central and a 10-15 minute walk from numerous town centre car-parks. What do people want? A clear drive through to a heated, covered, concierge-serviced allocated space? A heli-pad on the roof? It's certainly much easier to get to, with more options, that many other grounds I've visited.

 

Agree. Football fans are soft these days.

 

If SMS is ever to be expanded I can't believe it would be allowed unless a new train station/halt is part of the plans. There's also been talk of water taxis, utilising a developed river front.

 

I hope we never leave St Mary's and certainly wouldn't want to relocate out of the city as I'm sure that will only mean one thing, a ground-share. No ta.

[Matthew Le God]

I don't buy into the notion that SMS has poor transport links (save for, perhaps, the small number of people with mobility difficulties who might need to park at it).

 

It is a 20 min walk from Soton Central and a 10-15 minute walk from numerous town centre car-parks. What do people want? A clear drive through to a heated, covered, concierge-serviced allocated space? A heli-pad on the roof? It's certainly much easier to get to, with more options, that many other grounds I've visited.

 

Part of the problem is the congestion and disruption it causes on matchdays to the road network. Now imagine if an extra 20k people were going.

[Colinjb]

No thanks. For reasons I've stated above I think Stoneham would create a completely soulless footballing experience and have a detrimental impact on crowd numbers.

 

Agreed, it would be our equivalent of what happened to Coventry by moving to the Ricoh arena. Souless is the word.

[Matthew Le God]

Agreed, it would be our equivalent of what happened to Coventry by moving to the Ricoh arena. Souless is the word.

 

It isn't the location that makes the Ricoh soulless. It is the lack of Coventry fans in it.

[Saints foreva]

I personally think St. Mary's is in the perfect location, however the ground itself is pretty boring and crap.

[doggface]

lets get back to the premier league 1st, but it sounds like an expensive pipe dream at the moment.

Just when we have cleared our debt, lets add 30-100ml +

 

Great idea...

[Colinjb]

It isn't the location that makes the Ricoh soulless. It is the lack of Coventry fans in it.

 

Which is not helped by the location. Too far out to be practical for many of the old guard that went a lot to Highfield Road.

[Colinjb]

I personally think St. Mary's is in the perfect location, however the ground itself is pretty boring and crap.

 

It is beginning to look a decade old now... it does need a bit of sprucing up. The problem is the building is quite generic, to the untrained eye it looks virtual identical to Middlesborough, Sunderland, Leicester, Darlington etc.

[Matthew Le God]

I personally think St. Mary's is in the perfect location, however the ground itself is pretty boring and crap.

 

It isn't perfect if they wanted to make it bigger. The area would struggle to cope with the extra demands put on it.

[Matthew Le God]

lets get back to the premier league 1st, but it sounds like an expensive pipe dream at the moment.

Just when we have cleared our debt, lets add 30-100ml +

 

Great idea...

 

The Liebherr's don't do debt! They'd more likely pay for the development and then add it to the value of the asset.

[wightman35]

No thanks. For reasons I've stated above I think Stoneham would create a completely soulless footballing experience and have a detrimental impact on crowd numbers.

 

I think that you are absolutely right about this.

[The Kraken]

It isn't perfect if they wanted to make it bigger. The area would struggle to cope with the extra demands put on it.

 

By "the area", you're really talking about the city. Any inner city location is going to be a headache for any club; it's not an issue that is unique to Saints. The area will struggle for the extra traffic but it will cope. Besides, I'm sure any planning permission would be entirely dependent on the provision of much improved park and ride and other transport schemes.

 

I personally see absolutely no point of expanding beyond 40,000. We just wouldn't get any more than that except for games against the big 4, and even then its debatable how much above 40K we'd get. So we're only adding in 8,000 extra customers, or 25% extra than current capacity. The area can cope with that. Whether it makes financial sense to pay anywhere between £16M and £24M to achieve that capacity is another matter altogether.

Edited 10 November, 2010 by The Kraken

[slickmick]

By "the area", you're really talking about the city. Any inner city location is going to be a headache for any club; it's not an issue that is unique to Saints. The area will struggle for the extra traffic but it will cope. Besides, I'm sure any planning permission would be entirely dependent on the provision of much improved park and ride and other transport schemes.

 

I personally see aboslutely no point of expanding beyond 40,000. We just wouldn't get any more than that except for games against the big 4, and even then its debatable how much above 40K we'd get. So we're only adding in 8,000 extra customers, or 25% extra than current capacity. The area can cope with that. Whether it makes financial sense to pay anywhere between £16K and £24K to achieve that capacity is another matter altogether.

 

Far to sensible a post. But some will believe that we will get 50,000 every game.

[sfc4prem]

Far to sensible a post. But some will believe that we will get 50,000 every game.

 

Then they're deluded. An expansion of SMS to 41,000 will be perfect.

[doggface]

The Liebherr's don't do debt! They'd more likely pay for the development and then add it to the value of the asset.

 

Hmm, a valid point but can you really see them spend this sort of money outright?(I can't)

 

Adding value to the asset will not physically pay for the stadium.

[CB Fry]

The Liebherr's don't do debt! They'd more likely pay for the development and then add it to the value of the asset.

 

The Liebherrs don't do pi ssing money up the wall either.

 

Blowing at least 100m on a new stadium as you now seem to be advocating is "debt" whichever way you look at it. Some mug would have to pay for it.

 

This isn't a computer game, it's real life. I know you struggle with that.

[Matthew Le God]

The Liebherrs don't do pi ssing money up the wall either.

 

Blowing at least 100m on a new stadium as you now seem to be advocating is "debt" whichever way you look at it. Some mug would have to pay for it.

 

This isn't a computer game, it's real life. I know you struggle with that.

 

More petty insults...

 

If you spend £100m on a stadium, you still own the stadium. It still has value and in fact adds value to the club when they sell it on.

[Smirking_Saint]

More petty insults...

 

If you spend £100m on a stadium, you still own the stadium. It still has value and in fact adds value to the club when they sell it on.

 

There is no way, spending 100m on a new stadium for us will raise the value of the club by anywhere near 100m.

[NickG]

it may not need to

[Saint_clark]

There is no way, spending 100m on a new stadium for us will raise the value of the club by anywhere near 100m.

 

No, but the extra revenue from a big stadium could see us competing in the top 6.

Don't forget Newcastle were valued at over £100million just after relegation from the Prem.

[slickmick]

No, but the extra revenue from a big stadium could see us competing in the top 6.

Don't forget Newcastle were valued at over £100million just after relegation from the Prem.

Take away the value of the players and it doesn't leave much value on the stadium and facilities.

[The Kraken]

No, but the extra revenue from a big stadium could see us competing in the top 6.

Don't forget Newcastle were valued at over £100million just after relegation from the Prem.

 

Could it though?

 

Its widely accepted in the Prem we averaged somewhere around 30,000 per game. It largely depends how many extra fans you think we'd attract, but I'll stick with my belief as stated above that we wouldn't really need a stadium any bigger than 40K, as we'd only likely sell more than that against big 4 and its debatable if it would be a significant amount more than that in any case.

 

Best case scenario; 10,000 extra seats sold per game, lets say sold at £35 each which was our very top price ticket last time in the Prem, that's an extra £350,000 per home game. However, its still extremely unlikely that against the likes of Blackburn, Blackpool, Wigan etc we'd get any more than the 30,000 we used to average. So I'll be generous and say that we'd get 40,000 for only half the games played. So 10 games, £350,000 per game, that's £3.5M extra per season. Add in extras such as beer, food, programmes and whatever and lets say its a round £5M extra revenue per season.

 

£5M per season. Even setting aside the actual cost of putting those extra seats in place, £5M is not going to push us into the top 6. In today's prices that's not even one Rory Delap.

 

When you consider that in 2010, Liverpool's revenue from domestic television was £47M; down from £50M in 2009. That's just from domestic football. And that's ten times what we could hope to achieve by simply increasing attendance.

 

Raising attendance is a nice to have, but it's not really going to get us anywhere by itself. TV money is where the real money is to be found, where even the smallest clubs eclipse their matchday earnings by the money on offer from Sky.

[Joensuu]

£5 million extra per season wouldn't make much of a difference, but if the Sky bubble goes bust, and attendance becomes important again, it could make a huge difference...

[The Kraken]

£5 million extra per season wouldn't make much of a difference, but if the Sky bubble goes bust, and attendance becomes important again, it could make a huge difference...

 

The Sky bubble would have to literally implode for £5M to make a huge difference. And if it did, and we subsequently had only gate revenues to offset the cost of the refurbishments/new stadium, I'd suggest that it will never happen.

[Fan The Flames]

Agree. Football fans are soft these days.

 

If SMS is ever to be expanded I can't believe it would be allowed unless a new train station/halt is part of the plans. There's also been talk of water taxis, utilising a developed river front.

 

I hope we never leave St Mary's and certainly wouldn't want to relocate out of the city as I'm sure that will only mean one thing, a ground-share. No ta.

 

I don't think Eastleigh would want to ground share with us.

[CB Fry]

More petty insults...

 

If you spend £100m on a stadium, you still own the stadium. It still has value and in fact adds value to the club when they sell it on.

 

 

Pie in the sky. You're utterly clueless. And anyway, that 100m is still debt to someone.

[farawaysaint]

There is no way, spending 100m on a new stadium for us will raise the value of the club by anywhere near 100m.

Erm... Accounting wise actually it will raise the club by exactly that amount,( adjusted by the time value of money in terms of payments of the debt. and depending on whether we revalue fixed property then the value of the asset (and hence the club will increase by even more over time)

[up and away]

Originally Posted by Smirking_Saint

There is no way, spending 100m on a new stadium for us will raise the value of the club by anywhere near 100m.

Erm... Accounting wise actually it will raise the club by exactly that amount,( adjusted by the time value of money in terms of payments of the debt. and depending on whether we revalue fixed property then the value of the asset (and hence the club will increase by even more over time)

 

As with any asset, it's only worth what someone is prepared to pay for it. Something so intrinsically linked to football will have it's value held ransom by team performances and the ability to fill it.

 

Developing St Mary's or moving elsewhere makes no sense from football alone. Develop the area and introduce revenue streams other than football and it makes a lot more sense. If we can get sufficient land around St Marys, especially the waterfront, it could well be a good development. I would estimate a good capacity for St Mary's some where around 35k to 40k. That's allowing for the distortion of the Premier figures by the 4-5k who came along just to watch Premier football and the high volume of season ticket holders that carried over because of the Dell's small capacity. If You can get the season ticket levels high then you are in very good shape, but trying to build it up again from a low base will only emphasise the ease to get hold of tickets when you have so many available seats.

[farawaysaint]

As with any asset, it's only worth what someone is prepared to pay for it. Something so intrinsically linked to football will have it's value held ransom by team performances and the ability to fill it.

 

Developing St Mary's or moving elsewhere makes no sense from football alone. Develop the area and introduce revenue streams other than football and it makes a lot more sense. If we can get sufficient land around St Marys, especially the waterfront, it could well be a good development. I would estimate a good capacity for St Mary's some where around 35k to 40k. That's allowing for the distortion of the Premier figures by the 4-5k who came along just to watch Premier football and the high volume of season ticket holders that carried over because of the Dell's small capacity. If You can get the season ticket levels high then you are in very good shape, but trying to build it up again from a low base will only emphasise the ease to get hold of tickets when you have so many available seats.

 

I agree completely, that's why I said its value accounting wise would increase by that amount, we'd never find anyone willing to purchase the club for stupid money like that meaning the Leibbherr family would have absolutely no incentive to do it seeing as if they eventually sold the club then they'd have to sell it for less than its net asset value or strip and sell the assets separately and hope they can find a buyer for the stadium.

[Junction 9]

Why do people think we'd get more in the Prem now, than we did before? I'd say we'd get less after the excitement of the first season.

Look at Newcastle, back up in the prem and other than thier derby game getting 10,000 under capacity. Same with Sunderland who extended their stadium from an original size that was similar to ours. To suggest we'd get 35-40k for Fulham is utter madness.

[Matthew Le God]

Why do people think we'd get more in the Prem now, than we did before? I'd say we'd get less after the excitement of the first season.

Look at Newcastle, back up in the prem and other than thier derby game getting 10,000 under capacity. Same with Sunderland who extended their stadium from an original size that was similar to ours. To suggest we'd get 35-40k for Fulham is utter madness.

 

Because Saints in 125 years have never had a board with real ambition and the resources to match the ambition. Under Cortese (with the Liebherr's backing) we may do. Investment in the team would see more fans turn up.

[Junction 9]

Because Saints in 125 years have never had a board with real ambition and the resources to match the ambition. Under Cortese (with the Liebherr's backing) we may do. Investment in the team would see more fans turn up.

 

I would say that regardless of having the Liebherr backing behind us, we would have a similar standard of Prem team we had under the Strachan/Redknapp era.

I'd say they are far too prudent to ever sign mega money players on long term contracts like City have. Similar team, similar gates.

[Saint_clark]

£5 million extra per season wouldn't make much of a difference, but if the Sky bubble goes bust, and attendance becomes important again, it could make a huge difference...

 

Really? Imagine that extra £5million stuck onto the wage bill and all of a sudden it's a HUGE difference.

[Scudamore]

No, but the extra revenue from a big stadium could see us competing in the top 6.

Don't forget Newcastle were valued at over £100million just after relegation from the Prem.

 

A valuation that was never going to be met...

[Big John]

i have seen the pictures from the planning application, very impressive and great opportunity to develop the site for other activities after it's finished. Could be a proper Southampton Village type development. Expect American Wharf to come off of the market at some point in the future.

[Big John]

I cant see how the kingsland could be extended......not much room behind there anyway

 

*cough*train platform*cough*

[hypochondriac]

i have seen the pictures from the planning application, very impressive and great opportunity to develop the site for other activities after it's finished. Could be a proper Southampton Village type development. Expect American Wharf to come off of the market at some point in the future.

 

Care to share any of the details?

[Big John]

i think that the eastleigh talks may have been opened, with a view to influencing suthampton city council to support there plans for the area or they will be off, and if they don't get the answers that they want then off to Jackson's Farm we will be headed.

 

either way i think that we are being drip fed information by some people who have the clubs future at heart. I don't not think that we can lose this one.