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Time to accept that it is unlikely we will go up


Thedelldays

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I think those who have seen the games can plainly see that there are some fundamental problems at the club that are manifesting themselves with low morale and confidence. Last night we started brightly and just needed some luck to kick on our confidence. But good teams when playing badly or low on confidence , fight for everything to get that lucky break. After half time MK Dons won every 50/50 then 60/40 ball and WE GAVE UP. There was no leadership on the pitch and our midfield has neither speed ,intelligence guile or graft. We are carrying passengers in Hammond, Puncheon and Lambert at the moment. No team can fire on one cylinder when the opposition needs to fire on two.

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We clearly lack pace, especially out wide

 

It's been mentioned by many posters that we miss Papa Waigo and Antonio, but I'd be interested to know the real reasons why we never replaced them.

 

Whose fault was it - Pardew or Cortese?

Were we being plain arrogant in thinking we didn't need them, or we could sign whoever we wanted in the summer?

 

Whatever the answers, we've made a serious blunder there

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It strikes me that we play well in the first half and crap in the second. Can only put this down to poor fitness. Like FF said, something went very wrong in the Summer.

 

Adkins needs to get a few loans in now to go straight in the side for Saturday, not many players deserve their place at the moment.

 

I think you're right there, Wade G. They run out of energy in the second half and start hoofing it up to Lambert who has sadly been poor so far. We do need to get in a few loans soon to take the strain while NA gets our lot fit and energetic.

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Do not agree at all. Agreed we need to turn the corner but string some wins together and we will be right back in it. Did not start winning last season until October with minus 10 points and still nearly made it, and still had some very patchy form along the way.

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Well i completely agree Alps. I was one of the few who agreed with you over the lack of transfer activity in the summer, others on this board just stuck their head in the sand and beleived what the press were telling them.

 

We are at least 5 players short of being a championship winning side, the question is why does this not happen.

I am a licensed football agent and no a thing or two about football, so lets just summise a few things.

Firstly i am going to take the Pardew sacking out of the equation because Cortese clearly wanted to get rid of him ack in June and didn't. So moving on to the squad, which is paper thin, here are the problems

 

- Centre half - Jaidi is shot and should be a reserve at best. Seabourne is Pards only poor acqusition and is not of the required quality.

Martin is a good kid, but should be brought in slowly and not be thrust into first team football

Solution - Loan (Derrick Boayte)

 

- Centre Midfield - This was a problem all last season and having gone to the game last night, a problem yet again. Hammond sadly is neither an attacking or defensive midfielder and does not command the centre. We need a tough tackling ball winning midfielder who will do the dirty stuff and give the ball to more skilful players. Frankly it is disgraceful that Wotton is still on the books. Here is a guy who is no where near the required standard to be useful, why did we not buy a younger centre midfielder in the summer???????

At least Morgan is playing well, but he is being badly let down by Hammond and if we get injuries, we have massive problems.

 

Wingers - We only have 2, a promising kid and inconsistent Puncheon. We need at least 2 wingers to provide competition and pace down the flanks.

 

Strikers - I said i didn't know why we re-signed Connelly. Old, injury prone and does not have the pace we needed alongside Lambert.

We really needed a quick aggressive forward alongside Lambert. An Aaron McClean or Charlie Austin should of been targeted in the summer.

 

Personally i am completely confused as to Cortese's message. He wants to everyone we are a big club, we want to get to the Premiership blah blah, yet we spent no money in the summer, when the job was only half done.

 

Seriously guys, even if Pards was still here and our guys were playing well, we simply do not have a strong enough squad overall to maintain a top two place. There are too many weaknesses and the squad is paper thin.

 

Funny how Alps noticed this (as did i) and got slaughtered for it, maybe some of you are getting a dose of reality now.

Adkins you need loans and NOW!!!!!

 

Oh dear; you seem to have a rather tinted view of history. I feel embarrassed that I have to point this out time and again when idiots come up with this "told you so" nonsense over the lack of transfer activity.

 

Go and have another read of Alipne's "Where are the transfers" threads that he made in the summer. Go on, go have a read. Do that and you'll notice a few things:

 

Hardly anyone disagreed that we were at least 3 players short of where we needed, with pretty much everyone hoping for a CM to challenge Hammond & Schneiderlin, a replacement RM for Antonio/Waigo, and a CF as backup for Lambert.

 

Alipne's contention was that these signings should have been made early in the summer. Others were prepared to more patient, on the condition that the players would arrive in good time.

 

Most people agreed that if those players did not arrive by the start of the season, it would be a bad thing. However, some argued that the squad in its current state should have been good enough to get through the first few games in good shape.

 

Most people agreed that if those 3 players hadn't arrived by the end of the transfer window, then we wouldn't have a squad strong enough to give confidence to a top 2 finish and we may have to rely on loans.

 

Pretty much everyone agreed that, without those 3 players as signings or loans, this squad is not deep enough over the course of a season to secure a top 2 finish.

 

 

Now, you can try and carry on your "I told you so" routine if you wish, if you want to try and portray yourself as some form of visionary. But it just won't be the case, I'm afraid. Alpine was proved right in his "where are the players" threads; however, so was pretty much everyone else, as they didn't disagree with the fact we were players short, simply that it was expected for the club to not implode and fail to bring in the players needed.

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What starts to dawn on me, regardless of who was right or wrong in the past, that this squad might not at all be as strong as we liked to think. There are players in it who I have never seen playing a game which was so good so that they looked like CCC material, which should be equal to winning this league. Jaidi, Seabourne, Hammond, Puncheon, Connolly, for instance. And I still keep worrying about Davies on crosses.

 

If that is so, then I'm afraid that there is quite a re-building job in front of NA. To me promotion is not necessarily everything this season, but I would like us to have become a really competitive team which can be relied on to perform week in and week out, and all but guaranteed to beat the bottom sides every time.

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What starts to dawn on me, regardless of who was right or wrong in the past, that this squad might not at all be as strong as we liked to think. There are players in it who I have never seen playing a game which was so good so that they looked like CCC material, which should be equal to winning this league. Jaidi, Seabourne, Hammond, Puncheon, Connolly, for instance. And I still keep worrying about Davies on crosses.

 

If that is so, then I'm afraid that there is quite a re-building job in front of NA. To me promotion is not necessarily everything this season, but I would like us to have become a really competitive team which can be relied on to perform week in and week out, and all but guaranteed to beat the bottom sides every time.

 

I disagree. I think this team is as good as we think it is; or at least it can be. We're just massively out of sorts at the moment in terms of fitness and confidence. Jaidi is showing his age perhaps, but the others you mention are all capable of sorting themselves out and proving to be the players we know they can be, at least at this level.

 

NA has a big job to do, no doubt. But it's not as big a job as Pardew had when he first came here. I do think that Hammond is on thin ice, as the leader and driving force oin midfield he has been poor and a perfect example of how under par we are compared to last term. I think Adkins will already be looking for 2 or 3 loan signings who can come in playing at a high level and inject some belief into this demoralised squad.

 

Maybe the weight of expectation was managed badly; maybe the poor pre-season was the factor; maybe Lambert being off colour and Lallana's injury are affecting us more than they should. But I'm confident Adkins can be thespark to turn us around, I just hope he can do it sooner rather than later so that we can stay in the mix for something this season. The comparisons to last season are already massively evident, like then I don't want to have to wait until we're into October before we find our feet.

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I'm not sure that was the case. I watched that game on Sky - not the same as being there I know. But it does at least allow you to listen to impartial observation.

 

We came out of the blocks in that game and did everything but score.

 

One dodgy moment of defensive lapse then allowed Plymouth the classic smash and grab raid.

 

Now, call me old fashioned but I'm with Harry Redknapp on this. It was a goal out of nothing. They never threatened again. Never looked like scoring. We did. Several times.

 

It was a bad result, but it was no bad performance by any stretch. Nor did we look unfit. We simply looked like on another day we would have won easily.

 

Agree that it was daylight robbery by Plymouth in that they only had one shot and scored from it, but once they had done so and then parked the bus, we had absolutely no idea how to break that down. Lots of huf and puff but persistent lumped up long balls to Barnard and Connolly were easily won by the Plymouth centre backs, and although they never troubled our keeper, we never really troubled theirs either beyond a Lallana and Puncheon shot.

Lallana was the only piece of quality we had that day who at least tried to unlock the defence, and he was a 60th minute sub. We offered little else.

I honestly think (with a little hindsight but by no means all) that Pardew did not possess enough tactical acumen to change a game, and that together with an increasingly apparant "lazy summer", has contributed to this situation.

The good thing is that we are only half a dozen games into this season, so its not all over yet but I hope that Nigel does possess all the ability we think and hope he has!

Otherwise Delldays is right.

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haha what a silly thread...

 

Why is it a silly thread?

 

posts like this offer nothing.

 

The general consensus is that promotion is going to be harder now than it was back in august. Not impossible, no, but a hell of alot harder.

 

What makes you think that this team will all of a sudden win 6/7 games on the bounce? We will now need to win over 60% of our remaining games if we're able to recover from this bad start.

 

We can also only afford 4/5 more defeats all season, we're only in September.

 

If we get up automatically now Adkins will be a bloody hero in my eyes.

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Sorry but at this stage of the season I cannot start to think we will not go up - might not be auto (that's in our hands still tho'). Confidence/belief & fitness are lacking but they in themselves are not insurmountable.

 

Lets not right ourselves off just yet cos if we stop believing then so will the players.

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Why is it a silly thread?

 

posts like this offer nothing.

 

The general consensus is that promotion is going to be harder now than it was back in august. Not impossible, no, but a hell of alot harder.

 

What makes you think that this team will all of a sudden win 6/7 games on the bounce? We will now need to win over 60% of our remaining games if we're able to recover from this bad start.

 

We can also only afford 4/5 more defeats all season, we're only in September.

 

If we get up automatically now Adkins will be a bloody hero in my eyes.

 

8 points off top with 40 games to go...every team has a bad period during the season, we are just having ours now. we will still get promotied. this thread is silly...as i said. get a grip

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8 points off top with 40 games to go...every team has a bad period during the season, we are just having ours now. we will still get promotied. this thread is silly...as i said. get a grip

 

I admire your optimism, but we're not having a bad period. We're having a bad season. Unfortunately this is no temporary slight dip in the form, and much hard work is needed to turn it around. Making light of it doesn't change how much of a hole we're in right now.

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Got to agree with most of this, I have a feeling the only change we might see is if a few players come in who can make an immediate impact. If this does not happen I think my feeling is money is/was the issue and were not as well off or well funded as we were led to believe.

 

Generally speaking, the Quality that HAS come in has been OK

 

What is painfully obvious at the moment is the complete Aoathy shown by the Playeras

 

They do not seem to WANT to play for the Club, and that was apparent long before Pardew was sacked, you could smell something was wrtong

 

Even now, we do not know exactly what is wrong at the Club, but we can certainly see what is wrong on the pitch

 

At present, they are playing like a complete buch of To**ers, who don't CARE and are completly NOT INTERESTED

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Agree that it was daylight robbery by Plymouth in that they only had one shot and scored from it, but once they had done so and then parked the bus, we had absolutely no idea how to break that down. Lots of huf and puff but persistent lumped up long balls to Barnard and Connolly were easily won by the Plymouth centre backs, and although they never troubled our keeper, we never really troubled theirs either beyond a Lallana and Puncheon shot.

Lallana was the only piece of quality we had that day who at least tried to unlock the defence, and he was a 60th minute sub. We offered little else.

I honestly think (with a little hindsight but by no means all) that Pardew did not possess enough tactical acumen to change a game, and that together with an increasingly apparant "lazy summer", has contributed to this situation.

The good thing is that we are only half a dozen games into this season, so its not all over yet but I hope that Nigel does possess all the ability we think and hope he has!

Otherwise Delldays is right.

 

I can see where you're coming from. Although, if we had buried our first half chances (two free clear Hammond headers for example), the debate would have been immaterial.

 

Against Orient, Chamberlain changed the game a little and set up Harding for a woeful miss...

 

I don't think we have/had been as poor as people are making out. This is a poor league. Games where people tell me we played badly and won or lost, I often think we have played up to the standard of the league. The 5-0 drubbings of Huddersfield are few and far between for any team in any league. Even Neil Warnock will say that QPR were lucky to win their opening game 4-0!!!

 

We aren't great because noone in this league is, in my view.

 

What we are currently is low on confidence and self belief and yes, we lack players who can unlock games. Find me a team in the third tier of English football who doesn't!!

 

Hammond for me is a problem - neither fish no foul. Not tackling and fighting, nor bombing on.

 

Is there a problem with our midfield as a result, yes. Did Pardew try to fix it? Who knows... Danns, Antonio, the lad from Preston. All these names were bandied about as coming but didn't appear. Why? Because Pardew didn't want them or wasn't allowed to have them?

 

For me, it's hard to blame Pardew when from October to March we were the best team in the league on form.

 

That is, of course, now irrelevant. But the fact we did go to Norwich and win 2-0, did stuff Huddersfield, did stuff Leeds... all this says to me that our players are good enough on their day. The key for Adkins is to make that day every game.

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Some comparison:

 

Sept 26th 2009. Saints had just drawn away at Carlisle 1-1

 

Note the top teams and how far ahead they were. I believe this was after playing 9 matches? After the Sheff Weds game on Sept 25th we will have played 8 games.

 

Which team(s) went on to top the league at various stages? Which team won the league by some margin?

 

1. Leeds United 25

2. Charlton Atheltic 23

3. Bristol Rovers 19

4. MK Dons 17

5. Colchester United 15

6. Huddersfield Town 15

7. Swindon Town 14

8. Oldham Athletic 12

9. Gillingham 11

10. Southend United 11

11. Hatlepool United 11

12. Millwall 10

13. Stockport 10

14. Norwich City 10

15. Brentford 10

16. Walsall 10

17. Yeovil Town 9

18. Carlisle United 9

19. Leyton Orient 9

20. Exeter City 9

21. Brighton & Hove Albion 8

22. Wycombe Wanderers 5

23. Tranmere Rovers 3

24. Southampton -2

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What was it my mum used to say? Oh yeah, "no one likes a know it all".

 

So, well done to the people who correctly predicted that we wouldn't be running away with the league. I hope that it makes you feel better about yourself and gives your self esteem a boost. I wish I could be right all the time, then I could come on the internet and make out that I'm clever or know stuff.

 

It's also nice that these people shout others down who may feel that our season, a whole whopping 6 games in, isn't quite over yet.

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It is utter madness to write off our chances in mid-september! I'm sorry, there is realistic negativity but this pure insanity. We need to get behind the team not assume they have no chance or even boycott games.

 

I will stick my neck out and say that we will still finish in the top two come May - which is 8 months, 40 games and 120 points away by the way.

 

This is not 'denial', it is more realism than some people are showing

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There are many teams in all divisions which have poor starts when pre-season expectation has been high. As an example, look at Everton....they entered the season at least expecting a top 6 finish and are widely considered to one one of a few teams capable of challenging for a top 4 stop. Instead they currrently find themselves second from bottom. However I doubt any of us would say it's unlikely that they will indeed finish top six as it's far easier to be objective when looking in on other clubs. It's only mid-september and hardly worth looking at the league table tbh.

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I don't think there is any chance of relegation. It's like thinking Liverpool will be relegated from the Premiership based on their current form.

 

We do have the best first 11 in the league - when all fit, there can be no doubt about it.

 

We do not have Fabregas or Messi on the bench. We don't need them. This is League One.

 

We will be ok once we start winning. It will be soon and we won't stop.

 

We might need a loan or two but really, good players don't become bad overnight.

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I think Bristol Rovers was the turning point of our season so far, we finally click under Pardew and he get's sacked, Cortese's biggest problem was not letting him have the next game. If we had struggled to draw or lost THEN sack him! Maybe the players feel that no matter what they do the man upstairs aint gonna be happy?

 

it wasn't form related though, Cortese is reported to have explained that. Pardew had to be sacked for some reason or other.

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Unbelievable,theres 120 points to play for and we're 8 points from the top,yeah the seasons over isn't it.There really are some bloody idiots on this forum.
I'm afraid that is a misleading statistic, bjk. Being 8 points behind a team may not seem an impossible gap, just 3 wins to their 3 defeats, but that's not where we are. We are 6 points or more behing 10 teams and there are another 11 teams with more points than us. They can't all lose an equal number of games and some will win more than they lose. The gap will take a lot of closing, with every new defeat making it more unlikely, even though some wins are achieved along the way.

 

Top two is only statistically possible if you factor in enough defeats for other teams and that those defeats are averaged out over the division. In terms of probability, top two is now unrealistic. Top six is achievable if Saints do win enough games, but only because the play-off probability allows for 6 teams to have enough defeats, instead of only two teams.

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This team's performance isn't gonna suddenly change over night so us picking up lots of points in the next few months seems unlikely. Nigel Adkins probably knows this so does Cortese - they won't say in public but they can see it. It's League One for another couple of years minimum.

 

Anyone want to bet on Liam Henderson first scorer Saturday? He's on loan and it's his first appearance for Colchester.

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problem one: players don't give a toss

problem two: players not good enough

problem three: we think we have a divine right to go up/win every game

problem four: poor keeper (I know, I know, but I really think a lot stems from this

problem five: manager who is not exciting said billy big boots players

problem six: arrogant chairman

problem seven: er that's it.

Too much to resolve in one season. Stay in league this time unless Adkins really is good. Boot out billy big boots players (again)

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We are not a mile away from the top of the table and noone is showing any true signs of form ATM

 

We will be ok this season, i still think we will be promoted.

 

POLL mods ??

 

Adkins average win ratio with S****horpe is 41.7%. The best win ratio since 1897 of a Saints Mgr achieved was Pardew with 53% .

 

To win automatic promotion we now need 60%+ in the remaining games. Do you see the scale of the problem?

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Adkins average win ratio with S****horpe is 41.7%. The best win ratio since 1897 of a Saints Mgr achieved was Pardew with 53% .

 

To win automatic promotion we now need 60%+ in the remaining games. Do you see the scale of the problem?

 

Joey Deacon could have got us an average win ratio of 53% with the team and cash we had last year.

 

So for me that makes it a null and void arguement.

 

I honestly think it will be a massive struggle to win the league, which was my hope but just getting promoted isn't beyond the realms of impossibility. There are no teams showing top form, last year there was Norwich, Leeds, Millwall. With Charlton and Swindon up there who this season have been severely weakened.

Edited by Smirking_Saint
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I'd be interested to know adkins' win ratio for league 1 matches only, surely that'd be the best way of comparing his capability as a manager in this league with Pardew's

 

The season that he was fully in charge and they got promoted his win ratio was 47.8%.

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win ratios mean **** all. As long as we lose fewer than other teams over the course of the rest of the season, I believe we'll go up.

 

Leeds came second last season with 86, a higher points total than will be required this year IMO, winning 25, drawing 11 and losing 10. So far we have won 1, drawn 1, lost 4. Admittedly it will take a big effort not to lose more than 6 more, but everyone at the club knows this. It is not out of the question.

 

Let's not be negative, let's cheer the boys on to those 24 wins!

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Adkins average win ratio with S****horpe is 41.7%. The best win ratio since 1897 of a Saints Mgr achieved was Pardew with 53% .

 

To win automatic promotion we now need 60%+ in the remaining games. Do you see the scale of the problem?

 

LOL that can't be true. Pardew was crap people have been saying that ever since he got the boot (well before if truth be told) he had no plan B, couldn't break down lesser teams, left his subs to late and only played hoofball with no width how could he possibaly have the best win ratio since 1897!|

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Joey Deacon could have got us an average win ratio of 53% with the team and cash we had last year.

 

So for me that makes it a null and void arguement.

 

I honestly think it will be a massive struggle to win the league, which was my hope but just getting promoted isn't beyond the realms of impossibility. There are no teams showing top form, last year there was Norwich, Leeds, Millwall. With Charlton and Swindon up there who this season have been severely weakened.

 

Shame wilkins couldn't though in fact he couldn't even get a 25% win ratio with lasts years team and money . Whats the difference with this years team and lasts years then same players and price? and don't tell me it's papa or antonio becuase you said they were both pretty average players.

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In the top 2... Already we are playing catch up and playing poorly... I did mention a few weeks ago that the orient game was "must win" but got laughed at as there was so many games remaining

 

As CB FRY points out. The top 2 normally gather approximate 2 points a game and we would need to win around 10 on the bounce to catch up.. That simply is not going to happen

 

Time to stop worrying about getting to the prem is the next 3 years... Quite frankly, it's embarrassing to read whilst we are 3rd bottom of division 3

 

Agree, even if I don't like the smell of your coffee.

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LOL that can't be true. Pardew was crap people have been saying that ever since he got the boot (well before if truth be told) he had no plan B, couldn't break down lesser teams, left his subs to late and only played hoofball with no width how could he possibaly have the best win ratio since 1897!|

 

Yes but he failed to co-operate with Less Reed's empire and that is more important than a little thing such as the 1st team performance.

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win ratios mean **** all. As long as we lose fewer than other teams over the course of the rest of the season, I believe we'll go up. Leeds came second last season with 86, a higher points total than will be required this year IMO, winning 25, drawing 11 and losing 10. So far we have won 1, drawn 1, lost 4. Admittedly it will take a big effort not to lose more than 6 more, but everyone at the club knows this. It is not out of the question.

High Win ratios actually mean that you get a lot of THREE points....

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Joey Deacon could have got us an average win ratio of 53% with the team and cash we had last year.

So for me that makes it a null and void arguement.

 

I honestly think it will be a massive struggle to win the league, which was my hope but just getting promoted isn't beyond the realms of impossibility. There are no teams showing top form, last year there was Norwich, Leeds, Millwall. With Charlton and Swindon up there who this season have been severely weakened.

 

We'll find out with Adkins won't we... It's too easy to write off managers who win matches.

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Were you there last night? I went for the first time this season and was horrified by what I saw!

 

I am fully backing NA but clearly in terms of timescale and budget a complete rebuild is impossible at this stage but on last night's showing I would expect to see several changes for Saturday,

 

this team is in urgent need of a shot of footballing Viagra but where we get that who knows?

 

+1...

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Simple fact is our squad has been weakened over the summer, whereas other teams that were there or thereabouts last season have all strengthened under a consistent Manager in the main. Same old story - poor sorry Saints don't come up with the goods when they're needed...sell out rather than improve.

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