Article: Why Southampton won't win promotion

[sadoldgit]

When the seagulls follow the trawler it is because they think sardines will be thrown in the water

 

Can't argue with that!!!

[theyin]

We need to win while the pitches we play on are somewhere near playable if last season is anything to go by. The 'Southampton Style' doesn't suit mud, though seeing as though the majority of our signings are lower league buys and therefore should have experience of these type of pitches, I never saw the reasoning behind the argument that our players were 'too good' for the conditions.

 

also

 

what is this about Southamtpon never starting well and so don't have it in them to make a decent start. Are we really saying that overpaid and lets face it, under educated, aloof, look at me, spoilt journeymen footballers have an ounce of sense or sensibility towards history? Just because we haven't had a decent start since ...Chris Nicholl????(someone put me right there), this lot have it in their heads that it's alright coz we're not supposed to win till game 8 .... give me a break.

 

As you can tell, I don't hold footballers in the highest regard off the pitch

Edited 5 August, 2010 by theyin

[trousers]

Can't argue with that!!!

 

On here, anything is arguable.....I would venture it was pilchards, not sardines....

[trousers]

ah yes but betfair seem to forget, that was the old southampton that has failed to finish in the top 5 since 1985, according to NC and ML the "new" southampton started August 2009, time to buck the trend COYR

 

Come On You Reds? ;-)

[JustMike]

Come On You Reds? ;-)

 

haha ok, come on you whites with a red sash ;-)

[the saint in winchester]

I want to see MORE articles ruling us out. I've never been comfortable with Saints being favourites for anything, not even before the JPT final! Level-headedness in the squad is, imo, what will achieve us promotion.

 

Agree with that. Too many people sure we'll go up. 'Pride goes before a fall' (Bible proverb).

Heard that clown Adrian Durham last night describe us as a 'shoe-in' for promotion!!! We are not. I wish people would stop describing us as such!

[tttdcs]

Our problem will come from the teams that just "park the bus." We saw in the World Cup that no matter how good you are, a well organised defence can often frustrate. A lot of teams will be out to put men behind the ball and that is where we fell down last year apart from the odd few games when we just didn't turn up.

 

Apprently Sheffield Wednesday are worried about this and have widened their pitch to help themselves.

[Give it to Ron]

On here, anything is arguable.....I would venture it was pilchards, not sardines....

 

Can't be Pilchards he is at Staplewood and the trawlers have to stop at Cracknore Hard.

[Charlie Wayman]

Daily Telegraph has us down as clear favourites to win the league at 9-4 today. Nobody else even close. Sheff W at 7-1.

[The Kraken]

Ultimately, its NCs opinion that counts. And because it was me who posted it, it is obvious that I am of a similar opinion.

 

If The Kraken can understand why NC might think that way, he can understand why I might think that too. Ergo, it is not a "cheap shot"

 

Alpine, you criticise Turkish in this thread for not reading everything you wrote, then you choose to ignore parts of my post in your response.

 

I said believe that IF we start badly then AP will be given the boot.

 

I'll quote the part of my message you clearly missed from then on.

 

For the record, I think we'll be ok, that the squad we currently have will be enough to get us where we want to be, and that we will strengthen with further players this month; it just would have been much nicer to have the full squad by now.

 

There is no contradiction. You see, the difference is that you believe we WILL start badly; in fact one of your previous, more ridiculous, posts suggested that our start will be even worse than last year. I believe that you are wrong in that belief. But, I guess by then end of August, we'll know one way or the other how we've started the campaign.

[Turkish]

So you didnt bother reading past the first line of my post then.

 

Confirms a helluva lot about the way you post.

 

yes you said it was fair, which to be fair it is, however i notice you didn't say the telegraph article, which is also fair and accurate, puts your mind at rest about your fears, which is could do, that it give you hope which is bizarrely wrong according to you. Of course if you were that way inclined it might just put your mind at rest about this apparant 'crisis' you think we are having. comfirms a helluva a lot about the way you post.

Edited 5 August, 2010 by Turkish

[alpine_saint]

yes you said it was fair, which to be fair it is, however i notice you didn't say the telegraph article, which is also fair and accurate, puts your mind at rest about your fears, which is could do, that it give you hope which is bizarrely wrong according to you. Of course if you were that way inclined it might just put your mind at rest about this apparant 'crisis' you think we are having. comfirms a helluva a lot about the way you post.

 

The betfair article is accurate and confirms a lot of my fears

 

The telegraph article is positive and optimistic, and even managed to raise my spirits.

 

I think Betfair has it right, but Telegraph has given me some hope that its wrong.

 

But for me, the two articles when both considered and compared, have identified a weak link - AP.

 

I think NC may know it too, and I am beginning to think AP might not even have until Xmas.

 

You are just a WUM.

[The9]

The betfair article is accurate and confirms a lot of my fears

 

The telegraph article is positive and optimistic, and even managed to raise my spirits.

 

I think Betfair has it right, but Telegraph has given me some hope that its wrong.

 

But for me, the two articles when both considered and compared, have identified a weak link - AP.

 

I think NC may know it too, and I am beginning to think AP might not even have until Xmas.

 

Surely all both articles have done is identified a fall guy, and a very predictable one at that.

[Smirking_Saint]

Sure all both articles have done is identified a fall guy, and a very predictable one at that.

 

TBF, i agree with a little of what he says about AP.

 

And IMO he is a big manager at this level and one i wouldn't change as he has the teams respect etc.

 

I do however worry about his inability to adapt to any match changing tactics at times.

 

 

As for Southamptons title aspirations, it will be an absolute disaster to not be promoted this year.

[Dig Dig]

Ultimately, its NCs opinion that counts. And because it was me who posted it, it is obvious that I am of a similar opinion.

 

If The Kraken can understand why NC might think that way, he can understand why I might think that too. Ergo, it is not a "cheap shot"

 

That doesn't make it right though.....I think that knowing that you're only ever a couple of bad results away from the sack does nothing but undermine our promotion campaign imo

[oxfordshire_saint]

All this AP stuff is getting boring now, "manager likely to get sacked if team performs below expectations", shocker!!!!

 

There's only a couple of managers in the country who are virtually sack-proof and that's Ferguson and Wenger.

 

If Mancini isn't in the top 4 or 3 at Christmas, I'm sure Man City's board will show him the door. If any of the lower-half Prem sides are in the bottom 3 with more than half the season gone (maybe less), then I won't be surprised if their gaffer is getting the boot, even if it's at a promoted side who didn't expect to even be in that league.

 

Football is a high-pressure results business and sadly, managers get sacked by chairmen hungry for success, that's the way it is. Even moreso if you've had a truckload of money to spend.

[Dig Dig]

All this AP stuff is getting boring now, "manager likely to get sacked if team performs below expectations", shocker!!!!

 

There's only a couple of managers in the country who are virtually sack-proof and that's Ferguson and Wenger.

 

If Mancini isn't in the top 4 or 3 at Christmas, I'm sure Man City's board will show him the door. If any of the lower-half Prem sides are in the bottom 3 with more than half the season gone (maybe less), then I won't be surprised if their gaffer is getting the boot, even if it's at a promoted side who didn't expect to even be in that league.

 

Football is a high-pressure results business and sadly, managers get sacked by chairmen hungry for success, that's the way it is. Even moreso if you've had a truckload of money to spend.

 

You are correct that pressure is the nature of the game, especially for managers.......however the issue here is the suggestion that AP is a marked man before we have even kicked a ball this season. If NC has any doubts over AP's ability or indeed see's him as a "weak link" then he should have got rid this summer or backed him to the extent that there are no question marks over his faith in AP.....it's a shame that these lingering doubts are still here only 2 days before the start of the season

[Dibden Purlieu Saint]

yes you said it was fair, which to be fair it is, however i notice you didn't say the telegraph article, which is also fair and accurate, puts your mind at rest about your fears, which is could do, that it give you hope which is bizarrely wrong according to you. Of course if you were that way inclined it might just put your mind at rest about this apparant 'crisis' you think we are having. comfirms a helluva a lot about the way you post.

 

Erm, he said it made him feel better about our prospects, but I seem to remember that the issues that Alpine has are not dealt with by the Telegraph article (lack of signings).

[Turkish]

Erm, he said it made him feel better about our prospects, but I seem to remember that the issues that Alpine has are not dealt with by the Telegraph article (lack of signings).

 

well he says the betfair article confirms his fears. That we dont start well, Pardew cant handle the pressure and the league is hotly contested. All assumptions of course.

[mjksaint]

Its simple we will win 18 games at home 10 away = 84 points, the other 18 games will be the last minute scrambles for a draw or loss and these will decide our final place i think we will draw 8.

 

Final total 92 points.

 

Championship 2010/11.

[Neil]

"This summer, Southampton have further augmented the squad with established Championship players, such as Frazer Richardson and Danny Butterfield."

 

Doesn't mention that this is offset by not having Waigo/Antonio, who I would suggest are more likely match winners than the two coming in despite their obvious quality.

 

The Telegraph article is written by a Saints fan (and author of Saints Cult Heroes book) isn't it?

[benjii]

Article: why bookies don't want you to bet on the favourites...

[derry]

I think a lot of people are underestimating Cortese's ambition and the rewards available to him for our success. If we do not at the very least continue the results sequence from the latter half of last season and certainly win most of our home games from the start I personally expect Pardew to be replaced long before Christmas shopping even starts. I hope for three things, firstly we start well, secondly we bring in the necessary reinforcements, thirdly we play a decent standard of football that reflects the quality of the squad. If that happens the likelyhood of Pardew going, aside from a fallout with Cortese will recede.

[Dig Dig]

I think a lot of people are underestimating Cortese's ambition and the rewards available to him for our success. If we do not at the very least continue the results sequence from the latter half of last season and certainly win most of our home games from the start I personally expect Pardew to be replaced long before Christmas shopping even starts. I hope for three things, firstly we start well, secondly we bring in the necessary reinforcements, thirdly we play a decent standard of football that reflects the quality of the squad. If that happens the likelyhood of Pardew going, aside from a fallout with Cortese will recede.

 

I share two of your three hopes....the last being the standard of football would be a bonus for me and I wouldn't say that this is an absolute must....we just have to get out of this league first and foremost and if that means playing ugly then so be it! In any case I thought we did play some nice football last season but admittedly only against teams which gave us space and time on the ball

[Deano6]

It's quite rare for an article to be COMPLETE bulls*it, but this article has managed it. It may as well have said "Southampton averaged only just over 40 points in their last 10 seasons in the Premiership, so frankly I can't see them getting any more than 50. Plus no manager with a P in their name has ever won League 1 in a year ending in zero."

 

I apologise to the author - I didn't realise it was an intentional wind-up. Seems to have got quite a few others on here too tho!

 

 

http://betting.betfair.com/authors/the_betfair_contrarian/index.html

 

Other topics recently covered:

 

The Betfair Contrarian: Why Manchester City won't finish top four

The Betfair Contrarian: Why Russia will host the 2018 World Cup

The Betfair Contrarian: Why an Englishman will win the Open Championship

The Betfair Contrarian: Why Jenson Button will win the British Grand Prix

The Betfair Contrarian: Why Fabio Capello will be gone by September

The Betfair Contrarian: Why Andy Murray will win Wimbledon

The Betfair Contrarian: Why David Miliband won't be next Labour leader

The Betfair Contrarian: Why Leeds will miss out on promotion

Why the Conservatives won't win the most seats

 

Now do people get the aim of the column? ;-)

 

Although I tend to agree about the Russian 2018 World Cup bid....

[dronskisaint]

The article is written purposely to put a devil's advocate view against the prevailing opinions. So, accuracy per se is not the goal of the author or editor.

 

"The Betfair Contrarian" - hmmm, bit of a clue there... ;-)

 

It's designed to be thought provoking ergo mission accomplished.

 

It's a bit like some tosser on here banging on about Boxing Day...

 

:-)

 

Your point is well made - my question though was how we figure in their odds for promotion?

 

Surely they wouldn't try & manipulate opinion...would they?

[SparkySaint]

It wouldn't ben benificial for betfair to do this. Er yes it would

[SW11_Saint]

I hope AP pins that article to the dressing room wall. No greater incentive needed - we'll win every bloody game!

[Cascadia Saint]

I would suggest that every club in league 1 would take:

 

Pardew as manager

and these straight into their first 11:

 

Kelvin

Richardson or Butterfield

Fonte

Harding or Dickson

Schniederlin

Lallana

Puncheon

Lambert

Connolly or Barnard

 

most would also take

Jaidi

and Hammond.

 

I believe we have the best manager and best players therefore should win promotion. The bookies, who are rarely totally wrong in these things, have us as hottest favourites of any league.

 

It is ours to lose.

 

How we have previously started is not relevant - different personnel.

The other points are just random collections of stats and coincidences.

 

I agree.

 

They just need to play together as a team, because when you lay it down in black and white, we don't look bad...

[SaintRichmond]

The betfair article is accurate and confirms a lot of my fears

 

The telegraph article is positive and optimistic, and even managed to raise my spirits.

 

I think Betfair has it right, but Telegraph has given me some hope that its wrong.

 

But for me, the two articles when both considered and compared, have identified a weak link - AP.

 

I think NC may know it too, and I am beginning to think AP might not even have until Xmas.

 

Cortese DID know, but for some strange reason, did not act

 

THAT is why Coppel got tired of waiting

 

And Cortese missed getting a BETTER Manager than Pardew IMHO

[SaintRichmond]

haha ok, come on you whites with a red sash ;-)

 

It will most likely take five "Home" matches to realise Cortese has changed our colors

 

125th Anniversary or not, I still think changing from stripes is a Crazy move

 

For those that disagree, Time will tell as they say

[Saint_clark]

Agree with that. Too many people sure we'll go up. 'Pride goes before a fall' (Bible proverb).

Heard that clown Adrian Durham last night describe us as a 'shoe-in' for promotion!!! We are not. I wish people would stop describing us as such!

 

Well as SNSUN said we were favourites before the JPT final, which made a lot of people on here nervous, but we won that comfortably.

[saintchristine]

Seems such a waste to use my 3rd and I think last post of the day referring to Betfair but they are the worst site bar none when it comes to commenting on any sport never mind football. Clearly they are a betting site but unlike other bookmakers don't actually need to know anything as of course they make their money mainly on commission from the punters on there who win and who themselves set the odds. Pretty much none of the rumours re signings for any club come to fruition though if you mention enough players the law of averages dictate you'll get one or two right.

I don't think the fixture list really makes a great deal of difference and neither does our tendency to start slowly.

But the real nonsense starts when they refer to West Ham and the expectations when Tevez and Mascarenho joined. I don't know who sanctioned those signings but Tevez in particular proved more disruptive than anything else whilst Pardew was there, of course they also subsequently got fined £5.5m for breaching rules over their signings. Bizarrely WHU fans voted Tevez player of the season which might have had a little bit of credence had it not been before he secured PL safety by scoring the only goal in a 1-0 win v Man Utd. Still 7 goals in 26 games barely warranted that accolade. Mascarenho only played 5 games before being sent on loan to Liverpool though not before the Argentina national coach Alfio Basile, declared that he hoped Mascherano would leave West Ham "as soon as possible," and "I hope for God's sake that Mascherano can go to Juventus."

So never mind looking at the actual impact of the 2 players, far too difficult to do that.

However, probably even worse is this statement :

 

Standing by your man isn't rewarded.

 

"There was talk at the end of last season that Cortese was going to sack Pardew and, while that would have felt harsh, it could have proven beneficial. Seven of the last eight managers to secure automatic promotion from League One did so in their first full season at that level with their club, so while chairmen who continually axe coaches are criticised, there is logic in adopting that approach."

 

It's all very well stating 7 of the last 8 eight managers to secure automatic promotion did so at the first attempt but again let's not discuss how many of those 7 took over clubs that were in such a sorry state as we were, again far too difficult so just gloss over it and move on:rolleyes:

Simply lazy, lazy, lazy and worth reading only for amusement value.

[up and away]

Every manager at every club is under pressure, it goes with the job. I think that Pardew showed last year that he could handle pressure and only missed out on a play off place because of the minus 10 points (which seems to be ignored when talking about his efforts last season). More to the point, can Cortese handle to pressure and will he back his manager? It is going to be a tough season and if Pardew goes at Christmas just because we are not well clear of the pack you would have to ask who is likely to come in and make a huge difference. I did exect to see a couple of big signings this summer and whilst they still might arrive, you couldn't say that, so far, Cortese has thrown open his chequebook to ensure a decent promotion push.

 

Pardew was flapping like a humming bird for periods last season, something he is not unfamiliar with. Blaming the poor start on the negative inference of the -10, even to the extent of players started quoting this in interviews. This should never have developed psychologically as it's a never ending circle, first it's -10, then it's being minus, then it's bottom of the league, then it's bottom 4 and so on. The interview after the Yeovil home win was a panic reaction, stating we had turned the corner, with anyone else at the ground knowing without the opposition creating our chances, we had no chance of doing it ourselves. Where I did agree with Pardew was the home loss to Bristol Rovers, that was the first sign of turning the corner.

 

But this is a new season and new players, start with a bit of confidence and it can grow to snowball the team through at a canter. I have no worries with the players, even without additions this is a strong squad, surely to be added to. The only worry I have is Pardew being able to see the wood for the trees, something he was having particular problems with at times last season. The misplaced faith in the abilities of Saga and others took a time to get adjusted and the praise he heaped upon James to Coppell, only to let him go on a free at the end of the season. He took far to much time at the beginning of last season figuring out what was round and what was square, that cost.

 

Pardew can do it, we all know that from the performances last season, it's a question of whether he can sort things out quickly enough before getting stuck in a rut which can possibly grow. At least we have the finances to change the team and the manager and still get automatic promotion what ever happens.