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Article: Why Southampton won't win promotion

buctootim

By buctootim,
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buctootim

buctootim

Posted
Posted

Because we always start slowly, AP cant handle pressure and if we were going to go up, it would have happened last season. Personally i think its carp, like looking in the rear view mirror to tell the future. Thoughts?

 

http://betting.betfair.com/football/english-football-league/the-betfair-contrarian-why-southampton-wont-win-promotion-040810.html

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buctootim

buctootim

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Always go for the happy ending.

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St Landrew

St Landrew

Posted
Posted

It's a sobering thought, and one that should be borne in mind for the coming season. But as AP has said, they'll take it game by game, and I think that's the best approach. Everybody else is making them favourites, not themselves.

 

Well, one bloke isn't.

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SNSUN

SNSUN

Posted
Posted

I want to see MORE articles ruling us out. I've never been comfortable with Saints being favourites for anything, not even before the JPT final! Level-headedness in the squad is, imo, what will achieve us promotion.

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Deano6

Deano6

Posted
Posted
Because we always start slowly, AP cant handle pressure and if we were going to go up, it would have happened last season. Personally i think its carp, like looking in the rear view mirror to tell the future. Thoughts?

 

http://betting.betfair.com/football/english-football-league/the-betfair-contrarian-why-southampton-wont-win-promotion-040810.html

 

It's quite rare for an article to be COMPLETE bulls*it, but this article has managed it. It may as well have said "Southampton averaged only just over 40 points in their last 10 seasons in the Premiership, so frankly I can't see them getting any more than 50. Plus no manager with a P in their name has ever won League 1 in a year ending in zero."

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LostBoys

LostBoys

Posted
Posted

I am not comfortable being favourite at such short odds and so I welcome a different view.

I am not sure that using historical parallels from different clubs and different divisions is a good basis for any judgement though.

It is true we are not used to challenging promotion. Our track record is narrowly avoiding relegation each year as it was quite difficult to get promoted out of the Premier League if I remember correctly.

:lol:

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Nolan

Nolan

Posted
Posted

So Betfair is not getting much money on other League 1 sides. and how do they compensate? Why not just have a special offer on the other teams rather than the "no team who has spent less than 5 mins of the match by the corner flag nearest the away fans has ever gone up on an odd year if the consecutive year is a square root" type stats?

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alpine_saint

alpine_saint

Posted
Posted

The betfair article is accurate and confirms a lot of my fears

 

The telegraph article is positive and optimistic, and even managed to raise my spirits.

 

I think Betfair has it right, but Telegraph has given me some hope that its wrong.

 

But for me, the two articles when both considered and compared, have identified a weak link - AP.

 

I think NC may know it too, and I am beginning to think AP might not even have until Xmas.

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Ewell

Ewell

Posted
Posted
It's a sobering thought, and one that should be borne in mind for the coming season. But as AP has said, they'll take it game by game, and I think that's the best approach. Everybody else is making them favourites, not themselves.

 

Well, one bloke isn't.

 

I agree entirely.

 

You have to wonder why the bookies have us as such hot favourites when it has to be said we still have a lot of questions to answer and we have to change a few trends and prove to ourselves that we can handle the pressure. Personally I would not put any money on us.

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Saint Billy

Saint Billy

Posted
Posted
It's a sobering thought, and one that should be borne in mind for the coming season. But as AP has said, they'll take it game by game, and I think that's the best approach. Everybody else is making them favourites, not themselves.

 

Well, one bloke isn't.

 

Now thats what I call a unique plan :rolleyes:

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Turkish

Turkish

Posted
Posted (edited)
The betfair article is accurate and confirms a lot of my fears

 

The telegraph article is positive and optimistic, and even managed to raise my spirits.

 

I think Betfair has it right, but Telegraph has given me some hope that its wrong.

 

But for me, the two articles when both considered and compared, have identified a weak link - AP.

 

I think NC may know it too, and I am beginning to think AP might not even have until Xmas.

 

I had a feeling it might. I notice you haven't yet commented on the Telegraph aticle which gives the other side of the coin saying how it eliviates some of your fears.

Edited by Turkish
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Cabrone

Cabrone

Posted
Posted

I think we'll get auto promotion because I believe we have the strongest team in the division.

 

One of the best keepers, top scorer (by a margin) + 2nd best scorer (now Holt has gone) + David Connoly, one of the best CHs - Fonte, strong full backs and a solid midfield with Schneiderlin, Hammond, Puncheon and poss Holmes.

 

Sure we can always strengthen (and we may yet) but just about every other team would swap their players for ours in a heartbeat if they could.

 

Fortunately the journos don't have any hand in running the club or playing\picking the team. They know no more than the rest of us and their opinions (good or bad) should be taken with a very large handful of salt.

 

I reckon 95 points this season and an auto place.

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The Kraken

The Kraken

Posted
Posted
The betfair article is accurate and confirms a lot of my fears

 

The telegraph article is positive and optimistic, and even managed to raise my spirits.

 

I think Betfair has it right, but Telegraph has given me some hope that its wrong.

 

But for me, the two articles when both considered and compared, have identified a weak link - AP.

 

I think NC may know it too, and I am beginning to think AP might not even have until Xmas.

 

Firstly I disagree that AP is a weak link, and think its a cheap shot.

 

But I do agree that, unless we're off and running and in the top 2 or 3 right from the start, AP will be under massive pressure and if, after only 4 or 5 games we've stuttered out of the blocks and are down around mid-table, then Cortese will wield the axe.

 

I've always said that I would start to get concerned come August if we haven't made all (or at least most) of our signings; I can understand the reasons that we haven't to date, but AP won't be able to use it as an excuse to his boss if the current squad can't produce results.

 

For the record, I think we'll be ok, that the squad we currently have will be enough to get us where we want to be, and that we will strengthen with further players this month; it just would have been much nicer to have the full squad by now. But whatever happens, its going to be an interesting season and going to games is going to be enormous fun again.

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trousers

trousers

Posted
Posted
Reading that Telegraph article, I can scarcely believe that when he's talking about one of the best pieces of football investment in recent years, he's talking about my club.

 

Indeed. When stepping out of the 'emotional angst' atmosphere of this forum and reading articles like that with a cleansed mind it does bring home where we have come from and where we are now.

 

I can't believe there is one Saints fan who, when looking at the big picture, doesn't think we're in a better place now than where we were 3 years ago (and, no, I don't mean league position wise)

 

Starting to feel good again after a summer of bemusing uncertainty.

 

Of course, there's always the result on Saturday to put paid to such optimism!

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beatlesaint

beatlesaint

Posted
Posted

You cant argue with the point about slow starters.

We are notorious at that and I wouldn't be surprised if we dont stumble a bit in the first few games.

 

Still think we will go up though, every team will have a bad patch and we can get ours out the way early ;-)

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trousers

trousers

Posted
Posted
I'm not a betting person...are betfair odds reflected by this view?

 

My guess is that they're not which makes this article meaningless

 

The article is written purposely to put a devil's advocate view against the prevailing opinions. So, accuracy per se is not the goal of the author or editor.

 

"The Betfair Contrarian" - hmmm, bit of a clue there... ;-)

 

It's designed to be thought provoking ergo mission accomplished.

 

It's a bit like some tosser on here banging on about Boxing Day...

 

:-)

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alpine_saint

alpine_saint

Posted
Posted
I had a feeling it might. I notice you haven't yet commented on the Telegraph aticle which gives the other side of the coin saying how it eliviates some of your fears.

 

So you didnt bother reading past the first line of my post then.

 

Confirms a helluva lot about the way you post.

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alpine_saint

alpine_saint

Posted
Posted
Firstly I disagree that AP is a weak link, and think its a cheap shot.

 

But I do agree that, unless we're off and running and in the top 2 or 3 right from the start, AP will be under massive pressure and if, after only 4 or 5 games we've stuttered out of the blocks and are down around mid-table, then Cortese will wield the axe.

I've always said that I would start to get concerned come August if we haven't made all (or at least most) of our signings; I can understand the reasons that we haven't to date, but AP won't be able to use it as an excuse to his boss if the current squad can't produce results.

 

For the record, I think we'll be ok, that the squad we currently have will be enough to get us where we want to be, and that we will strengthen with further players this month; it just would have been much nicer to have the full squad by now. But whatever happens, its going to be an interesting season and going to games is going to be enormous fun again.

 

Sorry, this seems like a contradiction.

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alpine_saint

alpine_saint

Posted
Posted
It's not complicated.

 

The Kraken does not believe AP is a weak link.

The Kraken understands that NC may view AP as a weak link, if we underperform slightly.

 

Ultimately, its NCs opinion that counts. And because it was me who posted it, it is obvious that I am of a similar opinion.

 

If The Kraken can understand why NC might think that way, he can understand why I might think that too. Ergo, it is not a "cheap shot"

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sadoldgit

sadoldgit

Posted
Posted

Every manager at every club is under pressure, it goes with the job. I think that Pardew showed last year that he could handle pressure and only missed out on a play off place because of the minus 10 points (which seems to be ignored when talking about his efforts last season). More to the point, can Cortese handle to pressure and will he back his manager? It is going to be a tough season and if Pardew goes at Christmas just because we are not well clear of the pack you would have to ask who is likely to come in and make a huge difference. I did exect to see a couple of big signings this summer and whilst they still might arrive, you couldn't say that, so far, Cortese has thrown open his chequebook to ensure a decent promotion push.

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alpine_saint

alpine_saint

Posted
Posted
Every manager at every club is under pressure, it goes with the job. I think that Pardew showed last year that he could handle pressure and only missed out on a play off place because of the minus 10 points (which seems to be ignored when talking about his efforts last season). More to the point, can Cortese handle to pressure and will he back his manager? It is going to be a tough season and if Pardew goes at Christmas just because we are not well clear of the pack you would have to ask who is likely to come in and make a huge difference. I did exect to see a couple of big signings this summer and whilst they still might arrive, you couldn't say that, so far, Cortese has thrown open his chequebook to ensure a decent promotion push.

 

You dont know the reason those signings havent happened. The feedback from AP is that he is in no hurry, not that NC wont finance them.

 

AP might have handled the pressure last season when at least fan expectation was on his side (but did he ? He was well-ratty post-match a few times), but that will be nothing compared to this season, where a large section of the fan base will also view this as a no-excuse campaign.

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trousers

trousers

Posted
Posted

http://betting.betfair.com/authors/the_betfair_contrarian/index.html

 

The Betfair Contrarian

 

userpic-75-100x100.png?699

You say black he says white, you say Magners he says Bulmers, you say Steven Gerrard he says Frank Lampard. He is the Betfair Contrarian.

Ousted from Betfair HQ under dubious circumstances, the Betfair Contrarian now pens his thoughts from a secret location after going into hiding.

Every Friday he makes his weekly appearance on the football pages of betting.betfair.com, taking the opposite view to conventional wisdom.

Love him or hate him, betting genius or overated lunatic, you can contact the Betfair Contrarian with a request for a topic you would like to see discussed by posting comments after his latest piece.

Other topics recently covered:

 

Now do people get the aim of the column? ;-)

 

Although I tend to agree about the Russian 2018 World Cup bid....

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Give it to Ron

Give it to Ron

Posted
Posted

I may sound like Alpine now but our squad isn't good enough currently to get auto promotion.

We have no pace up front and no replacement for Hammond/Schneiderling injuries ...if we are relying on Wotton and a 16 year old wide we are fcked!!

We only have 2 days to go to the start and cannot waste any more time or points look how close we came last season.

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Barry the Badger

Barry the Badger

Posted
Posted
Ultimately, its NCs opinion that counts. And because it was me who posted it, it is obvious that I am of a similar opinion.

 

If The Kraken can understand why NC might think that way, he can understand why I might think that too. Ergo, it is not a "cheap shot"

 

Speaking personally Alps, I can understand why you might think AP is a weak link, I just think you're wrong.

 

I guess the proof will be in the performances over the next month, either way.

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sadoldgit

sadoldgit

Posted
Posted (edited)
You dont know the reason those signings havent happened. The feedback from AP is that he is in no hurry, not that NC wont finance them.

 

AP might have handled the pressure last season when at least fan expectation was on his side (but did he ? He was well-ratty post-match a few times), but that will be nothing compared to this season, where a large section of the fan base will also view this as a no-excuse campaign.

 

No I don't Alps. The only people who do are at SFC. They did try to sign Tyson so it is not as if they don't have targets and as I say, the summer is not over yet so stil time to bring in new players.

 

As fo Pardew, just watched is interview with the BBC. He said all the right things and looks well up for the season. I just hope he is given the season. There is no doubt that we are not going to walk this league and it will be tough. It may have to be the play offs but that should not been seen a failure. His job is to get us up one way or another. There is no manager out there who could guarantee us straight promotion.

 

Also as for being ratty, why not? He knows what is he trying to do and trying to achieve and it can't be easy having to anser what sometimes are stupid questions right after a disappointing performace. Are you telling me that Ferguson and Wenger never have a pop back at interviewers?

Edited by sadoldgit
added another para
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sadoldgit

sadoldgit

Posted
Posted
I may sound like Alpine now but our squad isn't good enough currently to get auto promotion.

We have no pace up front and no replacement for Hammond/Schneiderling injuries ...if we are relying on Wotton and a 16 year old wide we are fcked!!

We only have 2 days to go to the start and cannot waste any more time or points look how close we came last season.

 

So long as we have a team to do a job until a few new players arrive I am sure we will be okay. Better to wait and get who you want so long as those players are out there. So far he has done well with his transfers.

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NickG

NickG

Posted
Posted

I would suggest that every club in league 1 would take:

 

Pardew as manager

and these straight into their first 11:

 

Kelvin

Richardson or Butterfield

Fonte

Harding or Dickson

Schniederlin

Lallana

Puncheon

Lambert

Connolly or Barnard

 

most would also take

Jaidi

and Hammond.

 

I believe we have the best manager and best players therefore should win promotion. The bookies, who are rarely totally wrong in these things, have us as hottest favourites of any league.

 

It is ours to lose.

 

How we have previously started is not relevant - different personnel.

The other points are just random collections of stats and coincidences.

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Give it to Ron

Give it to Ron

Posted
Posted
So long as we have a team to do a job until a few new players arrive I am sure we will be okay. Better to wait and get who you want so long as those players are out there. So far he has done well with his transfers.

 

I think so far...Seaborne apart who worries me.....he has been brilliant in the transfer market.

I just don't think at the moment we have a plan B...someone to come on and change the game like Papa or Antonio did several times.

I know the season hasn't started and our starting 11 looks good on paper but its the bench and squad that worry me but then again that due to years of crap and failure coming through.

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sadoldgit

sadoldgit

Posted
Posted
I think so far...Seaborne apart who worries me.....he has been brilliant in the transfer market.

I just don't think at the moment we have a plan B...someone to come on and change the game like Papa or Antonio did several times.

I know the season hasn't started and our starting 11 looks good on paper but its the bench and squad that worry me but then again that due to years of crap and failure coming through.

 

Agree about the Plan B. I suppose the hope at the moment is that Plan A works until he can get others in!

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alpine_saint

alpine_saint

Posted
Posted
I think so far...Seaborne apart who worries me.....he has been brilliant in the transfer market.

I just don't think at the moment we have a plan B...someone to come on and change the game like Papa or Antonio did several times.

I know the season hasn't started and our starting 11 looks good on paper but its the bench and squad that worry me but then again that due to years of crap and failure coming through.

 

And until the team is announced for Saturday, we dont know how many of our first XI are suffering from significant injuries. We believe that Morgan and Rickie are minor, and probably Puncheon too, but let's see...

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sadoldgit

sadoldgit

Posted
Posted

Our problem will come from the teams that just "park the bus." We saw in the World Cup that no matter how good you are, a well organised defence can often frustrate. A lot of teams will be out to put men behind the ball and that is where we fell down last year apart from the odd few games when we just didn't turn up.

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