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Newmarket July Meeting


frankie
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In the absence of Chris O I have started a Newmarket July meeting thread, fell free to post selections and laugh / s****** / rejoice at successes / failures.

 

Standard of racing definitely improved for Wednesday, here are some selections and hopefully a few winners.

 

Newmarket

 

1.30 Chica Whopa

 

2.00 Kellys Eye

 

2.35 Hooray

 

3.10 Special Duty

 

5.30 Suited and Booted

 

 

Frankie

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Oh boy, I wish I didn't know! Haven't a clue but just for the hell of it and based on little real analysis even though it would seem otherwise ! Appearances can be deceptive :)

 

1.30Selection: Dylanesque Danger: Alice Alleyne :

A class 2 7f handicap for 3yo fillies kickstarts the meeting and I can’t help wondering where Clairvoyance is. This is just the type of race I’m looking for her to run in and she would have been a strong fancy of mine for it. Ah well there’s always Dylanesque. She’s a filly I’ve been following since her highly touted debut last August and was desperately unlucky to get caught on the line on her first run this season. The Michael Jarvis yard have been knocking the winners in of late and she should be in the shakeup.

These fillies only handicaps are notoriously difficult to work out and there are plenty of dangers including the favourite Maid In Heaven. Her only recent defeat came on soft ground and she’s progessing well but she has been raised another 9lb since her last win and that might catch her out in this stronger contest. One who does look nicely handicapped is Don’t Tell Mary who drops to handicap company for the first time having run in Group contests since wnning the Hilary Needler by 4 lengths last May. At around 25/1 she could make the frame. But the one horse I’m really worried about is the bottom weight Alice Alleyne who in a Yarmouth maiden last season got beat a shorthead by Dylaneasque off level weights. She comes from the Sir Michael Stoute yard, has Ryan Moore on board and ran on strongly over 6f last time out.

 

2.00 Selections: Gene Autrey/Singeur ew Danger: Excellent Guest : Another 3yo handicap, this time over 6f, which doesn’t look any easier to solve than the first race. A lot of these runners contested a similar race on the same course back in May when Swilly Ferry won very nicely from Excellent Guest. That he wasn’t able to get competitive next time out suggests to me that the handicapper now has him in his grasp although 25/1 is a big price if you can forgive him that run in a big field handicap at York. I think the form of the Britannia handicap at Royal Ascot will prove to be very reliable over the coming months and Firebreak ran very well in that race. At 28/1 he could be interesting although he is taking a marked drop in trip. There are also a few last time out winners in the field who command respect not least of which is Gene Autrey from the Richard Hannon stable. Dropped in grade to a class 4 handicap last time out he won by 4 lengths and from a good draw will take all the beating. Kellys Eye is going for a 4 timer here having won a Grade 5/4/3 handicap in his last 3 runs but another 9lb for his last win makes this a very tough assignment. Deacon Blues also has an extra 9lb to shoulder after his win in an all aged handicap last time out where he defeated the reliable yardstick Angus Newz by 3 1/2 lengths. He comes here at the top of his game and from a low draw looks a worthy favourite. The one horse I can’t get away from though is the bottom weight Excellent Guest who has landed a plum draw in stall 1, didn’t stay the trip in the Britannia last time out and had previously run 2nd to Swilly Ferry in the Coral Sprint. How on earth he is 25/1 is beyond me. Now backed into best priced 20/1. However, I now also like Singeur so backing him too,Robin Bastiman trains this three year old colt who was third last time out at York. Frankie Detorri has been booked to ride him again and at a decent price he has a big place claim at least.

 

2.35 Selection: Memory Danger: Soraaya : The 2.35 looks good for Memory to follow up her Albany win at Royal Ascot. She’s a strong trends horse and at evens or better will be carrying some of my money. Mick Channon enjoys a lot of succes with his 2yo’s on the July course and his once raced Soraaya may be able to make the step up in class to chase Memory home.

 

3.10: Selection: Music Show Danger: The rest of the field ! :

Onto the feature race of the day, the Falmouth Stakes. There’s plenty in this race I’ve done before and I’ve put Lillie Langtry in my list of horses to follow. The booking of Tom Queally on Special Duty could sway me towards her while I have a real niggling feeling that Spacious will win this as James Fanshawe has a great record in the race and she doesn’t have a lot to find on Windsor Forest form. Strawberrydaiquiri and Music Show are also horses I regularly back making it a real quandary for me. I could even make a case for the 50/1 outsider Lahaleeb. Obviously the best solution would be to not have a bet but longtime readers will also know that that isn’t an option! I wish Goldikova was running again as that would make it an easy decision.

I’ll let my heart rule my head and go with Music Show despite saying I’ll never back her again.

 

 

3.45 Selection: Bowermaster Danger: Yair Hill : A 2yo race full of unknowns. Not my cup of tea at all! I guess Bowermaster will be popular along with the Hannon (won the race 3 times in the last 10 years) pair Enabling and Major Art. John Dunlop unleashed Elusive Pimpernel in this race last year and also won the race in 1996 with a top 2yo. Today he runs Yair Hill. There has been an almighty gamble on Bloodsweatandtears this morning but this is the first 2yo runner of the season from their small stable and he looks up against it here.

 

 

4.20 Selection: Short Break Danger: Mata Keranjang : The 3yo maiden revolves around the Group performer Mata Keranjang and whether he is just one of those horses who simply cannot win, no matter what the opposition is. I’d be prepred to take him on again and will be backing the Henry Cecil runner Short Break

 

 

And then it gets worse with the final race at 5.30. If you’re wondering why there’s such a big gap between the last two races at Newmarket today it’s because they’ve decided to stick an Arab race on at 4.55. That should get the crowds in. I wonder if Kempton are taking note? Desperate !

 

 

 

5.30 Selection: Directorship/Child of Mine ew : And finally a mile handicap for the older horses. I don’t have a clue here but I’ve had a lot of success over the years backing Keiren Fallon in these types of races and I’ll be having a small interest on Directorship. Also small ew bet Sweet Child of Mine.

 

 

Good luck, I think we'll need it in bucket loads !

 

 

Chris

Edited by chrisobee
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Good luck, I think we'll need it in bucket loads !

 

Chris

 

Try shed loads.... particularly for Dylanesque, Music Show... I can't believe we've even agreed on the forecast of Memory and Soraaya.

 

It's too late for me but if it's not too late for you I suggest you hold those bets!!

 

Giddy up!!

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Try shed loads.... particularly for Dylanesque, Music Show... I can't believe we've even agreed on the forecast of Memory and Soraaya.

 

It's too late for me but if it's not too late for you I suggest you hold those bets!!

 

Giddy up!!

 

Looking for a miracle I suspect:D

 

I'm just playing for the hell of it, minimum stakes on the whole though Dylanesque might be my best bet, just a shame he runs in the 1st. I'll wait to see the GG's before placing a bet, at least the 1st four are on CH4.

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In the absence of Chris O I have started a Newmarket July meeting thread, fell free to post selections and laugh / s****** / rejoice at successes / failures.

 

 

 

Frankie

 

Only laugh at your failures TBH Frankie, I'm in that kind of mood:D

 

Chris

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Cracking work Chris with Memory (nice little horse that) and Music Show, I quietly fancied that, but keeping up my not backing any Channon horses run at the moment...I came away with one winner Suited and Booted at 9/1, so all in all not a bad first day.

 

Thursdays Selections

 

1.30 Harris Tweed looks an improving sort but he will have to be in top form to beat Corsica, he ran a cracker two runs back with a massive weight, then was tried over a trip too far, now back at a better distance he has a massive chance.

 

2.00 A tricky little race and one not to get heavily involved in, but it may be worth having a few quid on Marston Moor first time out, he is nicely bred, the trip should be fine and they must think a bit of him to sling him into this company first time.

 

2.35 A cracking race with a case able to be made for almost all of the runners, the favourite has a poor record in this race, so for I like the look of Point Out, he has only run three times and looked very useful when winning his maiden last time out, this longer trip should bring about even more improvement.

 

3.10 Holberg looks to have all the answers here, he was impressive for Mark Johnston last year and looked to have improved again on his first start for Godolphin, Spanish Moon can be temperamental so I think Man of Iron will follow him home.

 

3.45 Major Dude in a small field should improve on his debut win and follow up here for the all conquering Hannon yard.

 

4.20 Back over a mile and down in grade Fair Trade can take this tricky contest, he looked useful when winning on his seasonal bow, then ran ok in the Guineas before finding trouble in running and being lightly ridden last time out.

 

4.55 Crimea has steadily improved with each run this season, despite being upped in class here, the nature of his last win in a claimer means he looks in good heart and could figure at the finish

here.

 

Good luck all

 

Frankie

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Cracking work Chris with Memory (nice little horse that) and Music Show, I quietly fancied that, but keeping up my not backing any Channon horses run at the moment...I came away with one winner Suited and Booted at 9/1, so all in all not a bad first day.

 

 

 

Frankie

 

Yep a pretty good day, I should post lots of gibberish masquerading as analysis more often :)

Credit where it is due though :

 

Sir Cato: Nice going too, thanks for putting me off Dylanesque but onto a small forecast on Memory/Soraaya. Good going, in many ways though I would have been happy with reversed placings ( despite having a decent win bet on Memory as well) given Bungle was on Soraaya ). Nice win for us both with Music Show

Frankie : Only one winner but when it is 9/1 that'll do nicely especially in the lucky last, boy was it tight though !

Bungle : Nearly a nice shout with Soraaya, I'm guessing you went win only with only 7 runners ?

 

Overall

 

1.30 I did swerve Dylanesque and rightly so, horses from stalls 1-3 in 1st 3 places and Alice Alleyne the only one I picked out as a danger but also didn't back but would have gone ew had I done but would have been a small bet so not a problem !

 

2.00 A tough race that was to call though I was pleased with my main selection Gene Autrey, ran well in 3rd at 10/1 so no complaints

 

2.35 Memory/Soraaya Finally the Cato jinx might be laid to rest :) Nice work my new friend !!

 

3.10 Music Show- won nicely at 13/2 so definitely Sir Cato is no longer the jinx, it might have to be Frankie again lol

 

3.45 Would have been surprised if anyone saw Native Khan winning. Again happy enough with Bowermaster, 3rd but ran his race.

 

4.20 Cotton Mill @66/1, need I say more!

 

5.30 Suited and Booted ended the day nicely, had an inkling this might win when Frankie backed it !

 

Same again tomorrow !?

 

Chris

Edited by chrisobee
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Day 2

 

1.30 Very Good Day - seemed to make hard work of his maiden win following an eyecatching run behind Rewilding at Goodwood in May but I think he was running on the worst part of the course at Haydock. Will need to improve but could easily be capable and Channon's yard is in good form.

 

2.00 Neebras - very trappy race for such a small field, I don't think there is much between Elzaam and my choice so gone with the bigger price. Paired them for the forecast.

 

2.35 Caldercruiz e/w and Hot Prospect e/w - toughest race of the day, think these two are good e/w value bets.

 

3.10 Tazeez - if he takes this step up in trip he should have the gears to beat Holberg. Ideally the 2 of them don't take each other on and set it up for Spanish Moon or Sans Frontieres. Rev F/c as well on Taz and Holberg.

 

3.45 Lord of the Stars - most impressive debut and offers a bit of value against Roayh who could easily hose up but at restricted odds.

 

4.20 Party Doctor - has been performing well without getting his nose in front, hopefully today he will prosper.

 

4.55 Astrophysical Jet - really game filly she'll do for me in this.

 

There you go peeps, stick a line through that lot.

 

Giddy up!!

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Ok, purely on the basis that posting tips on here costs nothing I will attempt to find some selections. That said you a few races with small fields but a short priced favourite or a race like the 2.35 where I could easily back half the field and not even get one placed horse. However:

 

1.30 Selection : Corsica: Main Danger Very Good Day; Ok, not a great start replicating Frankie's tip but I cannot get away from Corsica who I take to beat Harris Tweed though Micky Channon's runner, Very Good Day, looks more than useful and Mick knows what it takes to win this race with Youmzain winning in 2006.

 

2.00 Selection Elzaam Main Danger Neebrass : Can't be backing Elzaam at such a short price but with only 5 runners no ew value either. Marston Moor is definitely overpriced but Dettori prefers the progressive Neebraas so going with the relatively obvious.

 

2.35 Selection Ransom Note Dangers Contract Caterer/ Gold Rules : Hard to keep it to 3 though with Frankie on Point Out I'm going to swerve him. Ransom Note is highly regarded by the Hills Camp and though the likely favourite I'm not convinced the poor record of favourites is due to anything other than the fact you have so many live contenders every time this race is run. Contract Caterer is in good form, should appreciate the going and Dettori on board makes him a real danger. Gold Rules may yet have to show his best but another positive jockey booking with Fallon taking the ride.

 

3.10 Selection Holberg NAP Main Danger Spanish Moon : Spanish Moon has a very good chance if he deigns to start and runs his race. However, the horse which looks nailed on based purely on trends is the fast-improving Holberg who is tackling what is considered to be his best trip on ideal ground. He routed a Listed field by 6 lengths at Goodwood on reappearance (ahead of Manighar and Opinion Poll) and at 2nd favourite in the market looks a strong choice, with Tazeez another lively danger if he stays.

 

3.45 Selection Roayh Main Danger Major Dude: Elzaam may well give a good indication as to how short priced favourite Roayh ( another Dettori ride) will go.I also like Major Dude who won on his only start to date and looks capable of progressing a lot further. I'll watch the 2.00 and then decide whether to play in this race though come what may I'll not be on Roayh at around even money !

 

4.20 Selection Fair Trade Danger Sweet Sonnet : The only angle I can get on this race is that Fair Trade looked to have no luck in running at Ascot back in June. He is well regarded at home, Sweet Sonnet might well prove best of the rest.

 

4.55 Selection Sohraab Danger Everything else ! : A competitive five furlong sprint depicted by the market which goes 6/1 bar about a field of eleven. He may not have performed the same level this season as he did last but it may be worth supporting Sohraab. The fact connections expressed their disappointment with his performance in the Wokingham at Ascot last month suggests he has been showing plenty at home. He hadn't performed badly in his three previous outings this season and he may step up on those efforts now he drops back to this grade for the first time since winning over C/D this time two years ago. Today's mark is his lowest in that time and the booking of George Baker for his first ride on the horse is a positive move. He has a profitable 22% strike rate on the yard's turf horses in recent seasons.

Good luck and plenty of it !

 

Chris

Edited by chrisobee
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Day 2

 

1.30 Very Good Day - seemed to make hard work of his maiden win following an eyecatching run behind Rewilding at Goodwood in May but I think he was running on the worst part of the course at Haydock. Will need to improve but could easily be capable and Channon's yard is in good form.

 

2.00 Neebras - very trappy race for such a small field, I don't think there is much between Elzaam and my choice so gone with the bigger price. Paired them for the forecast.

 

2.35 Caldercruiz e/w and Hot Prospect e/w - toughest race of the day, think these two are good e/w value bets.

 

3.10 Tazeez - if he takes this step up in trip he should have the gears to beat Holberg. Ideally the 2 of them don't take each other on and set it up for Spanish Moon or Sans Frontieres. Rev F/c as well on Taz and Holberg.

 

3.45 Lord of the Stars - most impressive debut and offers a bit of value against Roayh who could easily hose up but at restricted odds.

 

4.20 Party Doctor - has been performing well without getting his nose in front, hopefully today he will prosper.

 

4.55 Astrophysical Jet - really game filly she'll do for me in this.

 

There you go peeps, stick a line through that lot.

 

Giddy up!!

 

Not too bad, both Very Good Day and Neebras are my 2nd picks, Tazeez I agree looks decent if he stays but is only my 3rd pick. The others are either nailed on or totally doomed, I have no idea which !

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Looking at some of the prices that have been coming in, you can see it is not easy to pick winners at Newmarket this week, but a couple were found yesterday, both Chris O and I agreed on Corsica and it obliged after being well backed so that foils Chris' idea that I am a jinx, Notnowcato managed to find Astrophysical Jet which was a great find.

 

Fridays card looks probably the hardest yet, so good luck all

 

1.30 Andrew Balding has been in decent form at this meeting and he has a great chance with the handicap debutante Highland Knight, he has improved with every run and looked good beating subsequent winner Zakey by 4 1/2 lengths.

 

2.00 Formosina looks useful and should improve even more with this step up in trip, this also applies to Klammer though...but it is hard to ignore Richard Hannon and his horse King Torus won well on debut then finished a good fourth over this trip despite hanging, so I think King Torus can be king here.

 

2.35 almost impossible to fathom out so I am going for course and distance winner Captain Brilliance and a little each way on Spirit of Sharjah

 

3.10 This race is likely to be dominated by Starspangledbanner and Fleeting Spirit betting wise, but that means we can get some value on the other runners, I am going for two that I have tipped before and have run very well, only having to run to a similar level to figure here and they are Kinsale King and Society rock

 

4.55 Speed Dating to take the lucky last for me.

 

Good luck all

 

Frankie

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Looking at some of the prices that have been coming in, you can see it is not easy to pick winners at Newmarket this week, but a couple were found yesterday, both Chris O and I agreed on Corsica and it obliged after being well backed so that foils Chris' idea that I am a jinx, Notnowcato managed to find Astrophysical Jet which was a great find.

 

 

 

Frankie

 

I'm running out of excuses now ;)

Yep, nice one for Cato as well but how would you go for Circument @40/1 ?

 

Chris

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4.55 Ouster

 

Nigh-on impossible to pick anything today. Quite like Sea Lord in the first, but is carrying a lot of weight. Channon's Finest Reserve could be a good bet at 8/1.

 

The July Cup looks to be an excellent race, but quite frankly no idea who will win it!

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Ok, it is a nightmare day but :

 

1.30 Newmarket.

A tricky handicap to start off with where I could give a chance to quite a few of them. That doesn’t though include the favourite Highland Knight whose rating of 87 looks a little high considering what he’s actually acheived so far. He’ll probably go and skate in now but if he does, he won’t be carrying any of my money but some of Frankie's it seems:D. The way Dance East finished his race off last time makes me wonder whether he’ll be able to stay a mile in this company and I think a better bet is the topweight Sea Lord. As I said on Wednesday (just before Fireback won) the form of the Britannia this year looks worth following and Sea Lord finished 8th in that race. He has since come out and won a big handicap at the Curragh and with Amy Ryan claiming a useful 5lb I reckon his winning spree can continue. The consistent Finest Reserve can chase him home.

Selection: Sea Lord Danger Finest Reserve

2.00 Newmarket

I’m not sure whether Ecliptic would have won his race at Sandown if Frankie hadn’t been dumped on the floor by the second favourite but they were both 8 lengths clear of anything else at the time and it didn’t look too bad a race. It is however a big step up in class here so I’ll be siding with the runner that won a Group 2 last time out from the O’Brien horse Samuel Morse. That’s tip top form and if Formosina is able to shoulder the 3lb Group penalty he’ll take all the beating.

Selection: Formosina Danger: Ecliptic

2.35 Newmarket

This really is a race to swerve, anything could win but probably one of these ! My choice, the trends pick is Noble Citizen who ran 4th in the Victoria Cup and 6th in the Hunt Cup where he faded in the last 150yds. Off bottom weight the 18/1 looks big for a horse drawn well and with the assistance of William Buick can make the frame at the very least. Crown Choice probably hit the front too soon when winning narrowly at Goodwood last time out. However, with Jamie Spencer on board looks an ew contender at least, looks to be on an upward curve and and ran well on the Rowley Course back in May. 3yo’s don’t have a great record in the Bunbury Cup (although they don’t have that many runners) but the way Freeforaday ran last time out in the Jersey Stakes he could change all that. The step up in trip seemed to bring about massive improvement and 20/1 is value. Everymanforhimself can run well in these big field handicaps if the mood takes him and odds of 33/1 may be worth a small each way interest if anyone is looking for a big priced outsider. Signor Peltro could figure but is likely to need luck in running and 7/1 doesn't appeal in this trappy race.

Selection: Noble Citizen ew Danger: Crown Choice Maybe worth small ew/win-place interest are Freeforaday/ Everymanforhimself

3.10 Newmarket

The July Cup looks a virtual re-run of the Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot with the rest of the field made up of Kings Stand runners from the Tuesday of the meeting. I’m sure Equiano will make life difficult for Starspangledbanner up front and they’ll be taking no prisoners in what’s going to be a very fast run race. Blink and you’ll miss this! It may pay to find a horse able to sit off the pace and challenge late on which is exactly what I expect Society Rock to do. 3yo’s have a good record in the race and he doesn’t have a lot to find with the favourite so at 14/1 he’s my idea of a value each way bet. Niconi also appeals ew at 16/1, wasn't given the best of rides in the Kings Stand stakes and is reunited today with top Australian jockey D M Oliver. Stepping back to 6 furlongs should suit, hopefully Niconi will be there or thereabouts when it matters. Given his much improved form this year I’d like to think Equiano could finish in the frame too

Selection: Society Rock Dangers: Niconi/Equiano

3.45 Newmarket

A 2yo race for fillies isn’t my cup of tea at all. Mick Channon usually unveils a decent filly in July so I’ll be watching Layla Jamil and also Hannon’s horse Our Way Only given his 2yo form this week. Suroors Ragsah looks the one they all have to beat though.

Selection: Layla Jamil (e/w) Dangers:Our Way Only/ Ragsah

4.20 Newmarket

I used to love these 2yo Nursery’s but I’ve not been having a lot of luck in them recently. With all the top 10 runners in the handicap having won 1 of their last two races it probably won’t be changing here as this looks really tough. Breathless Storm looks a real monkey but he obviously has ability to match his wayward tendancies as his 5th to Royal Ascot winner Zaidan confirms. The one that I really like the look of though is Barry Hills’s Rerouted who began his career by running Elzaam to 3 lengths in a Class 3 maiden at York.

Selection: Rerouted Danger: Breathless Storm

4.55 Newmarket

And so as it began so does it end. However, Times Up looks of interest, won twice last year and 5th on seasonal debut. With a drop back in drip and hopefully coming on for that run 10/1 looks fair enough. Bay Willow is clear favourite and with Frankie on board should run well so in the absence, so far at least, of an alternative I'll opt for him as an obvious danger though might well find a few more !

Selection: Times Up ew Danger Bay Willow

 

Be very, very lucky :D

 

Chris

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Top tipping by Chris O who had Sea Lord at 13/2 also mentioned by Bungle, and Times Up (Chris even had the forecast here) at 9/1, I waded in with a token winner King Torus at 7/2, so all in all on a tricky day, some good tipping.

 

Frankie

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Top tipping by Chris O who had Sea Lord at 13/2 also mentioned by Bungle, and Times Up (Chris even had the forecast here) at 9/1, I waded in with a token winner King Torus at 7/2, so all in all on a tricky day, some good tipping.

 

Frankie

 

Frankie, thanks though a winner at these meetings is a winner and 7/2 no mean price when many tipping services give out 1/2 shots ! That was a strange race though with Ecliptic running all over the place and King Torus also though not so pronounced. I was impressed by Equiano who really made Starspangledbanner work hard and at 12/1 gave me more than a good run for my money. I don't think I would ever have picked Catfish @ 40/1 which just confirmed that kind of race really is one I'd normally avoid like the plague!

Still an enjoyable 3 days, my luck not bad at all.

Glorious Goodwood next I believe, not 100% sure though.

 

Chris

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