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We will p*ss this league...

Legod Third Coming

By Legod Third Coming
in The Saints

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Dibden Purlieu Saint

Dibden Purlieu Saint

Posted
Posted
If bookies are to be believed.

 

11/4 to win the league before a ball has been kicked?

 

10/11 for promotion?

 

Either we are nailed on, or some lumpy bets have been placed. Let's hope it's the former!!

 

Those are ridiculous odds. We are not that nailed on, nowehere near.

Wurzel

Wurzel

Posted
Posted

I was looking at that on oddschecker this morning. Odds ON for promotion with EVERY bookie and all have us either 11/4 or 5/2 to win it.

 

I preferred it when we were underdogs

OldNick

OldNick

Posted
Posted

they dont seem to have factored in the extra pressure of the fans and boards expectations. It is going to be a different atmosphere at SMS this season if we dont win from the start.

B Rabbit

B Rabbit

Posted
Posted

What kind of low expectations do people have?

We've had a years experience in this league..and as said above...probably have the best 11 and good squad depth... anything other than promotion is complete failure.

NickG

NickG

Posted
Posted
they dont seem to have factored in the extra pressure of the fans and boards expectations. It is going to be a different atmosphere at SMS this season if we dont win from the start.

 

bookies factor it all - and where money is going - more often right than not!

Legod Third Coming

Legod Third Coming

Posted
  • Author
Posted
I was looking at that on oddschecker this morning. Odds ON for promotion with EVERY bookie and all have us either 11/4 or 5/2 to win it.

 

I preferred it when we were underdogs

 

Well, I'm a punter first and Saints fan second (sorry to all those with red and white in their blood), and the prices are bonkers. Put it this way, we were 13/2 to win the JPT when I backed us - and that was with the same squad and the likelihood of us drawing plenty of poor teams in the early rounds, which we did!! Anything can happen during 8 months of a league campaign. So 13/2 to win eight games but 5/2 to win 30 games against all comers in the league, home and away...

 

I fully expect us to go up, but odds on???

 

I just hope this pricing is reflected in my Ladbrokes shares! :)

Wurzel

Wurzel

Posted
Posted
Well, I'm a punter first and Saints fan second (sorry to all those with red and white in their blood), and the prices are bonkers. Put it this way, we were 13/2 to win the JPT when I backed us - and that was with the same squad and the likelihood of us drawing plenty of poor teams in the early rounds, which we did!! Anything can happen during 8 months of a league campaign. So 13/2 to win eight games but 5/2 to win 30 games against all comers in the league, home and away...

 

I fully expect us to go up, but odds on???

 

I just hope this pricing is reflected in my Ladbrokes shares! :)

 

 

To be fair odds on for promotion is probably about right. But on both the win market and the promotion market we are considered to be two and a half times more likely to do it than Sheff Wednesday (the second favourites). Favourites certainly but by that kind of margin? Yep, I agree, bonkers

Super_Uwe

Super_Uwe

Posted
Posted

I think we have as good a chance as we've had for a very long time to win a title - the core of players that we've got now are USED to winning games in a Saints shirt. That is simply something that has been unheard at our club for the best part of two generations.

 

We need to make sure that we have a solid start so that there's enough momentum to get us over the finishing line. A brilliant Charlton-esque start would be nice but it is not the be-all-and-end-all. I am sure however that all of the players and management staff know that last season's start, coupled with the -10 deduction, was an absolute killer in terms of promotion and they will be doing everything to make sure it doesn't happen.

 

Will also be interesting to see how the team copes with the pressure this year - as long as we don't take any tips off of Team England, we'll be fine. :@)

Legod Third Coming

Legod Third Coming

Posted
  • Author
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jesus, after reading this board you would have thought we would be odds on for relegation.

 

Not really - I expect us to go up, this is just a debate about 'value'. And we're not a value betting proposition. I still fully expect that we will go up, if not win the league.

Legod Third Coming

Legod Third Coming

Posted
  • Author
Posted
They aint giving much away 12 of the 24 are in single figures! (best price)

 

For me, the value bets in there are Brighton (6s) and Notts County (9s) but even then, the prices are ridiculous. This is an eight month race and the biggest price is 40/1.... Bloody hell a horse finished second in the Derby at 100/1. Oh and if Holland win today, I will at least have a few quid to play up.

fish fingers

fish fingers

Posted
Posted
For me, the value bets in there are Brighton (6s) and Notts County (9s) but even then, the prices are ridiculous. This is an eight month race and the biggest price is 40/1.... Bloody hell a horse finished second in the Derby at 100/1. Oh and if Holland win today, I will at least have a few quid to play up.

 

I'm with you there. I think they'll have a very good season if they keep Poyet.

Pilchards

Pilchards

Posted
Posted

The problem we have is every team will treat us as the big one which will help them raise there game.

As supporters we will become frustrated by teams camping in the box which will result in the players getting nervous because of the booing.

 

I pray Pardew has found the solution and if so then I do feel we will **** it.

trousers

trousers

Posted
Posted
If bookies are to be believed.

 

11/4 to win the league before a ball has been kicked?

 

10/11 for promotion?

 

Either we are nailed on, or some lumpy bets have been placed. Let's hope it's the former!!

 

Slighty more crackers is that we are 8/13 to win the first game against Plymouth....

Aardvark

Aardvark

Posted
Posted

Frankly that is nonsense. It is more likely to win a 24 team league than a 48 team knock out tournament - the number of games makes no difference, it's the number of teams 1 in 24 as against 1 in 48.

Well, I'm a punter first and Saints fan second (sorry to all those with red and white in their blood), and the prices are bonkers. Put it this way, we were 13/2 to win the JPT when I backed us - and that was with the same squad and the likelihood of us drawing plenty of poor teams in the early rounds, which we did!! Anything can happen during 8 months of a league campaign. So 13/2 to win eight games but 5/2 to win 30 games against all comers in the league, home and away...

 

I fully expect us to go up, but odds on???

 

I just hope this pricing is reflected in my Ladbrokes shares! :)

SuperMikey

SuperMikey

Posted
Posted (edited)

I've got a fiver on us to win the league at 5/2 with William Hill, fair odds considering we have one of the best English managers about, a team full of established CCC/L1 players and a billionaire owner/hard working chairman combination who have shown that they're not afraid to pump money into the club if need be. You'd be stupid not to put money on us to gain promotion at least just looking at those statistics!

Edited by SuperMikey
SaintBobby

SaintBobby

Posted
Posted (edited)

I think the 11/4 on us winning the league is not a great bet.

 

But the 10/11 on promotion is an excellent punt. I think our chances of promotion are at least 70%. If you think the chances are better than 55%, you should put money on at these odds.

Edited by SaintBobby
sadoldgit

sadoldgit

Posted
Posted

There is no way we will walk this league. We need to get the right players in and it will be tough. We have a good base but still need to build. Anyone who thinks it is a cake walk is living on another planet.

saintjinksie

saintjinksie

Posted
Posted
I think the 11/4 on us winning the league is not a great bet.

 

But the 10/11 on promotion is an excellent punt. I think our chances of promotion are at least 70%. If you think the chances are better than 55%, you should put money on at these odds.

 

10/11 for 46 games is sh*te odds. FACT. Absolute no value in betting on us to be promoted

St Landrew

St Landrew

Posted
Posted
The odds make perfect sense. We have the best team on paper and a ridiculous amount of money for L1. The wages we pay are insane compared to other L1 clubs, and we showed we can win games. Without the -10 and pressure that brought, and a bit more stability under AP, we should win the league easily. I'm not saying we will, but there's no excuse for not doing so. Norwich had far far more difficult circumstances last season than we have now having just come done, changing manager after awful start etc.

 

Whilst I would agee that Saints will, come the season opener, be the best team on paper, and potentially have much more money at their disposal than other League One clubs. I see no reason why we would be paying ridiculous wages compared to other clubs. The motivation for players is that they are with the biggest club in that particular league, and there is almost certainly only one direction it is heading in. For that, players are probably more than happy to take a little less than perhaps you think.

KK the 2nd

KK the 2nd

Posted
Posted
Completely agree.

 

Completely disagree. We have the best squad in the league. I think we are nailed on for promotion and a reasonable bet to win the league.

La BoIS Saint

La BoIS Saint

Posted
Posted
Well, I'm a punter first and Saints fan second (sorry to all those with red and white in their blood), and the prices are bonkers. Put it this way, we were 13/2 to win the JPT when I backed us - and that was with the same squad and the likelihood of us drawing plenty of poor teams in the early rounds, which we did!! Anything can happen during 8 months of a league campaign. So 13/2 to win eight games but 5/2 to win 30 games against all comers in the league, home and away...

 

I fully expect us to go up, but odds on???

 

 

I just hope this pricing is reflected in my Ladbrokes shares! :)

 

To turn it on its head what odds would you offer me if I gave you £100 for promotion and winning the league?

Cabrone

Cabrone

Posted
Posted

We finished just 3 points off an auto place last season (if you add the 10 points back) and that was after starting with an incomplete team that had a terrible 10 game start.

 

League 1 has lost Norwich, Leeds and Millwall - the best 3 teams in the league last year - and replaced them with arguably lesser teams.

 

The players have now gelled into a team that knows how to win in this league and which has added some very good signings so far. We also have a chairman who is amenable to investing in the team if we need to strengthen further.

 

We have a decent manager with top flight experience.

 

That's why the bookies are putting us down as nailed on certs - and I agree with them!

Smirking_Saint

Smirking_Saint

Posted
Posted

Honestly speaking, i don't think Pardew did as well as he could have done last year, we could have made the playoffs, it was achievable, but we failed. I was all in all happy however, we kept up with the leaders, had a great season and built a team ready for this year.

 

Now, this year is a different kettle of fish, anyone who says those odds do not reflect our team and position compared to the other teams in the division are clearly mental. We have the best team in the division, period. The bigger teams have been promoted, ok, huddersfield and brighton have started to build for the future but IMO Norwich and Leeds were better. Swindon and Charlton have been weakened. We have money and will probably make more signings, not only this but last year we purchased replacements in January so will arguably do it again if the need arises. The bookies would look at all of this and would have come up with odds, that IMO fairly represent were we should be.

 

As for Pardew, we really should be winning the league but football is a funny old game so IMO anything other that automatic will be a failure.

 

The playoffs would be a failure but a failure to be promoted and honestly AP should be shot on the spot.

 

Also, if we are off the pace by christmas i am afraid it is bye bye Pardew IMO

Thedelldays

Thedelldays

Posted
Posted

good post S_S...

 

I would be happy with 2nd spot right now...really would be over the moon..

 

this season is all about automatic promotio for me...not the JPT or doing well in the cups...but automatic promotion...and I guess, after some comments last season, that will probably be the focus on the club as a whole

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