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Royal Ascot 15th June- 19th June

chrisobee

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John B

John B

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Check back later in the week, I'm sure there will be plenty with some great racing that day but then again on all days of course.

 

Yes the racing is very good but I live three miles from the course and the traffic is horrendous and the other Miss B has dreadful problems getting home from work.

 

We used to go regularly on the Wednesday unfortunately the person who organised our tickets died suddenly a few years ago so probably out of respect to him have not returned.

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chrisobee

chrisobee

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Yes the racing is very good but I live three miles from the course and the traffic is horrendous.

 

We used to go regularly on the Wednesday unfortunately the person who organised our tickets died suddenly a few years ago so probably out of respect to him have not returned.

 

Well that's very handy at least though I can imagine what the traffic is like, probably quicker to walk the 3 miles !

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Hatch

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One day before Ascot and we have an an IT system change at work, which means that all gambling websites are now blocked....kin arseholes.

 

Not really a fan of Royal Ascot though, even though its the best racing of the year, the whole occasion is ruined by the complete and utter ****s that come over for it.

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frankie

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Unfortunately I have work tomorrow, so will be unable to see the top quality racing...here are my selections though.

 

2.30 A brilliant race to start proceedings, there are question marks about Rip Van winkle and despite Goldikova being a very consistent and talented filly, Paco Boy has been massively impressive in two runs this year winning very easily, he looks to have improved with age and can follow up last years win. One to look out for at a big price is Dalghar, he is a talented animal and may well casue a shock.

Selection : Paco boy . Each Way :Dalghar

 

3.05 A case can be made for most of the runners in this 5f sprint, so my tentative selection will go to Markab, he seems to have really improved this year, his last run in Ireland was impressive, this trip is a furlong shorter than he has been winning over but he has the speed to cope with that and will hopefully make it a hattrick.

Selection:Markab

 

3.50 If in doubt go with the unbeaten animal...alot of these have run against each other this season and through all form lines Makfi comes out on top, he will surely win again unless something else has improved significantly, so it just has to be Makfi to maintain his unbeaten tag.

Selection:Makfi

 

4.25 Possibly more of a watching brief with so many unbeaten animals in this race, but my selection and it is to minimum stakes is Michael Jarvis' Elzaam, he won his debut in nice style beating 15 opponents, the form of that race has stacked up well with the second and third both winning since and others have ran well too, he will surely come on for the experience and he has followed the same route as last years winner Canford Cliffs.

Selection:Elzaam

 

5.00 I really fancied Aaim to Prosper last time out but he ran a strange race and is probably best watched at the moment, the horse I really like the look of is David Pipes, Junior, he was very useful when last seen on the flat in 2007, winning 2 of 3 races, he has been jumping since so will have no trouble with fitness and can take this race.

Selection:Junior

 

5.25 If this is the race you need to get a winner in to save your day, god help you, my two against the field are Marine Commando and Petronius Maximus.

 

Good luck all.

 

Frankie

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chrisobee

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Courtesy of Key Racing News :

 

 

http://www.keyracingnews.com/

Draw & pace notes: Ascot, re-laid for 2006

No set bias exists on the straight course, although a bias can appear from meeting-to- meeting. At 11:00am Monday the going stick read: Stands side: 8.6, centre 8.7, far side 9.0, Round course:8.4. Low drawn sprinters could therefore be disadvantaged on day 1.

 

Pace has proved consistently important. In sprints it is often useful to know where the pace will be - horses who find themselves well drawn to sit handy and benefit from a tow into the race do well. On the round course the bend into the straight is now more sweeping and with the relatively short run in, it can prove difficult to peg back a horse who sits to the fore and gets first run.

 

Form & pace report: Queen Anne Stakes. Toward the head of the market is usually the place to be. The top 4 provided 17 of the last 20 winners. Favourites won 10/20. Realistically it revolves around the top 3 here, any of whom could win at their best.

 

With the other principals fully wound up you would expect Rip Van Winkle to be cherry ripe for the Coral-Eclipse on 3rd July and a shade below 100% here. By weight-adjusted ratings (if she’s at her best) Goldivoka looks hard to beat - although we don’t know if she acts at Ascot. Paco Boy is a C&D winner (as is RVW), and better than ever but the last horse to beat Goldikova over a mile was Zarkava in 2008. Pace may prove important - if nothing can get Paco Boy off the bridle by the 1fl pole he has the gears to win, and in that sense RVW (who would want a searching test) could well be the key in setting the race up for Goldivoka.

 

Draw, pace & trends report: King’s Stand. You have to go back to 2002 for the last British-bred winner, although it’s tended to be won by Australian raiders on fast ground. That said, Nicconi (AUS) who is unbeaten up to 5.5fl, won’t mind good ground. He’s a hold up type/fast finisher, and the trainer is confident the visor will assist and he goes particularly well fresh.

 

8/10 winners were priced 7/1 or higher. Obvious well-backed Australian horses accounted for the 2 victories by favourites. The pace looks fairly even and with the going stick readings a middle-to-high draw may be an advantage. C&D winners Kingsgate Native and Total Gallery both catch the eye, the latter now back in the mix without a G1 penalty.

 

Draw, pace & trends report: St James Palace Stakes. Favourites have done well, 14/14 have been returned at 8/1 or less. Ballydoyle target the race and hold an exceptional record of 6/10 - with ultra-game Mastercraftsman last year. Top 4 or 5 Newmarket 2000 Guineas form has been a consistently good guide.

 

A turning mile on the round course. A high draw is problematic (tricky inside rail), although Ballydoyle have overcome it the last twice. Drawn 1-5 is generally thought ideal.

 

This may be a fairly open race - Ballydoyle have a pacemaker which is useful for Canford Cliffs, who thrived at the Curragh held up off a strong gallop, but the mid-race looks muddling. It all fell right at the Curragh, but he’s a very short price and this may not drop his way. All eyes will be on Steinbeck, to gauge the progress he has made, but Makfi ran a blinder off an oddly muddling pace in the UK Guineas, despite being held up, and has been targeted specifically at this ever since. For the each way money it looks a toss-up between **** Turpin, who continues in very good heart, and Siyouni both of whom could be positioned to advantage from a useful draw.

 

Trends report: The Coventry Stakes. A race dominated by the head of the market. The favourite is 6/10. Single figure horses have won 18/20. A P O’Brien has a very good record and the winner is likely to emerge from the first 4 in the betting.

 

Richard Hannon rates Strong Suit his best 2YO, if not quite in the same bracket as Canford Cliffs, but a very good colt and game. They think he has a good chance but acknowledge the competition is stiff. Michael Jarvis rates Elzaam one of the best 2YO he’s ever had - sandwiched between Hannon and O’Brien his horse may be slightly overlooked. Ballydoyle look strong; a surprise to see Johnny choose Zoffany, which may looks to have been a very close call. Samuel Morse broke a minute at The Curragh for 5fl which isn’t done by many and brings the strongest form to the table - the downside is he’s stepping up in trip, although expected to get it.

 

We don’t sense great confidence behind Strong Suit and with some cracking form in the book, a lot of seasoned Irish watchers think Johnny may have chosen wrong this time with Zoffany.

 

Trends report: The Ascot Stakes. The last 14 winners have ranged up to 33/1 - 7 were 20/1 to 33/1 & 5 were 9/1 to 12/1, and 2 at 13/2 and 7/1. Martin Pipe won this in 2002 and 2003. An 8YO won in 2007 but otherwise 4 to 6YO’s are 13/14 and 14/14 ran within the last 2 months. Very few won with more than 4 runs in the current season.

 

Among a long list of possibles, some of the more likely candidates are: Som Tala a 7YO but quite lightly raced. A creditable 5th in this last year, beaten 9.5l but now 6lbs lighter. Aimed at this via the same Chester prep. Ghimaar, hold-up horse, well treated on winning form over 2m at Galway. Back on track with recent win over hurdles for new yard and looks firmly in the mix. Rajik, another hold up type and an interesting candidate. Improved leaps and bounds last year, winning 3 times up to 16fl. Decent 3rd at the Curragh latest, and shaped like he’d be spot on next time for the run.

 

Draw & trends report: The Windsor Castle Stakes. This had been fairly tame in recent years until John Best dropped the 100/1 bombshell in 2008 with Flashman’s Papers and last year the market was sucker-punched by Wesley A Ward’s speedy Strike The Tiger @ 33/1. No chance of that this year, his pacey-looking speedball for 2010, Metropolitan Man, is best price 7/4. They want fast ground for him and the course should be riding fairly fast by last afternoon on a drying day.

 

A middle-to-high has tended to be dominate and we may again be useful. 12/13 had a maximum of 2 career outings. 12/14 came from the first 6 in the market. Maiden and novice winners have tended to do best, although 5 have got off the mark here.

 

The favourite looks strong, but a reasonable trends candidate and each way shot could be Stone Of Folca, who is highly regarded by John Best and has been working well. He’s expected to sharply improve next time out & the yard target this race (winner & 2nd in recent years). Dermot Weld’s Oor Jock is another, and quietly fancied by the Irish contingent.

 

Eye-catchers

Eye-catchers with entries today, flagged up by respected sources over the past few weeks

 

Paco Boy (IRE), 2:30 Ascot

K Pitterson 23/05/10 - silenced doubters regarding 8fl, travelling with unmistakable quality at Newbury and displaying a fine turn of foot. Looks to have grown into a horse of peak stature.

 

Elzaam (AUS), 4:25 Ascot

A Barr 19/5/10 - very impressive on York debut, idling after racing clear in well above average contest. Michael Jarvis rates him one of the best 2YO's he's ever had and likely to give Strong Suit something to think about in the Coventry.

 

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bungle

bungle

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One day before Ascot and we have an an IT system change at work, which means that all gambling websites are now blocked....kin arseholes.

 

Not really a fan of Royal Ascot though, even though its the best racing of the year, the whole occasion is ruined by the complete and utter ****s that come over for it.

 

You need to find a good proxy server thing - or whatever the IT people call it.

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chrisobee

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2.30 : Paco Boy@7/2/ Dalghar ew @14/1: Indeed a great start to the meeting and the race of the day for me. Paco Boy has always impressed me so not going to desert him today despite the obvious abilities of Goldikova and Rip Van Winkle, the latter may need this race having been off the track for 220 days. With Goldikova currently trading at around 7/4 and Paco Boy 7/2 I think there's a bit of value to be had. Of the outsiders I have to agree with Frankie again, Dalghar looks a decent ew bet. I suspect this race could set the tone of not only the day but the 5 days for Frankie and me !

3.05 - Don't really have any strong opinions on this race but since I need to select one for the ATR tipping challenge I'm going with Total Gallery who looked very good when winning last October's Prix De l'Abbaye and 8/1 looks a fair enough price.

3.50- Canford Cliffs @5/2/D1ck Turpin@8/1 : No doubting for me D1ck Turpin is excellent value at 8/1 but I am finding Canford Cliffs hard to oppose even though there is no particularly reason he should reverse the form from the 2000 Guineas with boy D1ck Turpin and Mafki. However, the Hannon yard are clearly very bullish about his chances and he may well be able to build on his success in the Irish 2000 Guineas under an excellent ride from Richard Hughes who unsurprisingly takes the ride today. So going Dutch on these 2 and in this case totally opposing Frankie.

4.25 Elzaam @ 9/2 : The favourite Strong Suit looks short enough at around 5/2. Elzaam is a very good horse, was an eye catcher last time out ( see post 13) and so once again I'm with Frankie on this one !

5.00: Ghimaar @5/1/ Tyrells Wood ew @14/1 : How on earth Ghimaar got in this race off 90 I will never know.He should stay although we don't know for sure. Fallon is a good jockey booking and I have heard the horse is well fancied. Also like the look of Tyrells Wood at a big price, was a winner over 17f at Pontefract in 2009 and still on the up when signing off with second at Goodwood in July. Goes well fresh, so has to be considered for new yard that took this race last year.

5.35 - This race is what it is and that's a punters nightmare ! Metropolitan man is short enough at around 7/4-2/1 so looking to take him on though not sure with what. However, once again I need a selection for the ATR tipping challenge and at a decent price of around 10/1 Marine Commando appeals most.The Carlisle form line which brings Richard Fahey's raider to the party may not look great but the winner of the same race came and won the Norfolk Stakes at the royal meeting a few years ago and Marine Commando was an impressive winner of the relevant contest.Boundless Spirit is a speedy colt who has won 5f Hamilton maiden and 5f Beverley minor event, making all on both occasions. Conditions ideal, but needs to improve again but decent price at 12/1. Then again Chilworth Lad might be worth a few quid at 8/1 !

 

May well do an ew double with Ghimaar and Elzaam.

 

Good luck all, enjoy.

 

Chris

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chrisobee

chrisobee

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Still time to do the ATR tipping challenge to win £1000 on Betfair:

 

http://www.attheraces.com/ascot/tipping.aspx?hlid=509436&day=tue

 

It's a long shot, a very long shot I know but it's free !My final picks :

 

14:30 Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1) (Str) 15 points to win on Paco Boy at SP

 

 

15:05 King's Stand Stakes (British Leg Of The Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) 15 points to win on Total Gallery at SP

 

 

15:50 St James's Palace Stakes (Group 1) (Rnd) 20 points to win on Canford Cliffs at SP

 

 

16:25 Coventry Stakes (Group 2) 20 points to win on Elzaam at SP

 

 

17:00 Ascot Stakes (Handicap) 15 points to win on Tyrrells Wood at 13/1

 

 

17:35 Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed) 15 points to win on Chilworth Lad at 8/1

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frankie

frankie

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Unfortunately I have work tomorrow, so will be unable to see the top quality racing...here are my selections though.

 

2.30 A brilliant race to start proceedings, there are question marks about Rip Van winkle and despite Goldikova being a very consistent and talented filly, Paco Boy has been massively impressive in two runs this year winning very easily, he looks to have improved with age and can follow up last years win. One to look out for at a big price is Dalghar, he is a talented animal and may well casue a shock.

Selection : Paco boy . Each Way :Dalghar

 

3.05 A case can be made for most of the runners in this 5f sprint, so my tentative selection will go to Markab, he seems to have really improved this year, his last run in Ireland was impressive, this trip is a furlong shorter than he has been winning over but he has the speed to cope with that and will hopefully make it a hattrick.

Selection:Markab

 

3.50 If in doubt go with the unbeaten animal...alot of these have run against each other this season and through all form lines Makfi comes out on top, he will surely win again unless something else has improved significantly, so it just has to be Makfi to maintain his unbeaten tag.

Selection:Makfi

 

4.25 Possibly more of a watching brief with so many unbeaten animals in this race, but my selection and it is to minimum stakes is Michael Jarvis' Elzaam, he won his debut in nice style beating 15 opponents, the form of that race has stacked up well with the second and third both winning since and others have ran well too, he will surely come on for the experience and he has followed the same route as last years winner Canford Cliffs.

Selection:Elzaam

 

5.00 I really fancied Aaim to Prosper last time out but he ran a strange race and is probably best watched at the moment, the horse I really like the look of is David Pipes, Junior, he was very useful when last seen on the flat in 2007, winning 2 of 3 races, he has been jumping since so will have no trouble with fitness and can take this race.

Selection:Junior

 

5.25 If this is the race you need to get a winner in to save your day, god help you, my two against the field are Marine Commando and Petronius Maximus.

 

Good luck all.

 

Frankie

 

Good work today fellas, after thinking it was going to be a frustrating day of seconds (Paco Boy 2nd 11/4 Markab 2nd 14/1 Elzaam 2nd 3/1) but then Junior came good at 17/2 and in a tricky finale I managed to tip the first and the second against the field (Marine Commando 9/2 Petronus Maximus 20/1) which I dont think is bad work :-) lets see if we can carry it on tomorrow.

 

Frankie

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saintkiptanui

saintkiptanui

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Had paco boy in the first with Canford cliffs and strong suit for an E/W treble, so close. Hannons horses are flying, my favourite trainer by a distance, if his are backed it will run well, unbacked forget it. Got the placepot for 30p so made a slight profit on the day at ascot, tomorrow looks hard but I do fancy Free Judgement who was 2nd to Canford cliffs in Ireland.

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frankie

frankie

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Right Ascot day 2 selections.

 

2.30 Have to agree with Kip, Free Judgement has had his form franked by Canford Cliffs and will be a popular choice to take the first race.

Selection: Free Judgement

 

3.05 A corking race with Strawberrydaquiri and Antara fancied for Stoute and Godolphin respectively, but I fancy the all conquering Hannon yard to continue its good form with shamwari Lodge, she is unbeaten this season and looks to have progressed quite a bit, she shouldnt have too much trouble with the course, her one run here saw her finish second. At a larger price Alsaice Lorraine could spring a surprise, she has C/D form and James Fanshawe has won this 2 out of the last four runnings.

Selection:Shamwari Lodge Each Way:Alsace Lorrainne

 

3.50 Byword will be a warm favourite after finishing second to Goldikova last time out, but I fancy Cecil's Twice Over to push him all the way, he didn't perform in Meydan but is better than that and can hopefully bounce back to form and improve on his fourth place in last years race.

 

4.25 My tip, get a pin stick it in and see what happens, my two against the field are St Moritz and Harald Bluetooth.

 

5.00 Every Saints fan should be on this selection, Swiss Dream won nicely last time out despite showing greenness, he has a great chance in a wide open race, having the assistance of Ryan Moore is a bonus.

Selection:Swiss Dream

 

5.35 Real pig of a race to get an angle on...my very tentative selection goes with Dunlop's Mudaraah, his horses often improve for a run, he ran well in the Oaks despite being hampered and can hopefully take a part in this race.

Selection: Mudaraah

 

Cheers all, dont feel quite as confident as day 1 but you never know.

 

Frankie

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bungle

bungle

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Selections for today:

 

2.30 Free Judgment

3.05 Alsace Lorraine - 14/1 on the nose at Paddypower

3.50 Twice Over

4.25 Fareer e/w (30 runners in this race, absolute lottery – but has won in a big field at Ascot before)

5.00 Sydney Arms e/w (big field and only 5f. Hannon/Hughes going well and won in big field before) - 22/1 at Paddypower, most others giving 14-18/1

5.35 Timepiece (might go e/w) (back down to 8f trip which suited in past, but big field)

 

Not sure how I'm going to split the bets up yet.

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chrisobee

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Indeed, a very good combined effort lads :) Thought Paco Boy ran an excellent race, just left his challenge too late. Markab certainly ran well but only found Equiano too good. Canford Cliffs ran a great race to at least get one on the board for Stevo and myself with my other pick D1ck Turpin a good 2nd. Elzaam was a very unlucky loser though at least I got a return on an ew double with Ghimaar who just snuck into the places, great call on Junior Frankie, Seb gave him a great ride. With Marine Commando quite well fancied by a few of us winning the last all in all it was a very good effort and could have easily been damned brilliant ! Bungle, at least D1ck Turpin and Equiano were good calls and returned a profit on your ew double but as you say if only ! Still I'd take the positive and say you were spot on with 2 of your selections winning and D1ck Turpin 2nd.

Day 2 stats/preview to follow soon.

Good luck all.

 

Chris

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chrisobee

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Courtesy again of Key Racing News:

 

Eye-catchers

Eye-catchers with entries today, flagged up by respected sources

 

Mawatheeq (USA), 3:50 Ascot

M Tregoning 2/6/10 - closely related to Rumoush and Ghanaati, exceeded all expectations last year and has been delayed this term following a small setback. Looks highly promising and progressive and a live contender for Group 1 late season targets.

 

Fareer (GB), 4:25 Ascot

Ed Dunlop 23/5/10 - came on again this winter and we still had something to work on when he won at York. Very much a summer horse (doesn't want it soft). Richard Hills feels he would also get further. A class act and there's more to come.

 

Maqaasid (GB), 5:00 Ascot

K Pitterson 23/05/10 - closely related to 1000 Guineas winner Ghanaati, made a spectacular debut. Sluggish out of the stalls, she weaved her way through to win without breaking sweat and looks highly promising.

Pace & trends report: The Jersey Stakes. All last 13 have been won by a top yard, with Newmarket taking 7 of the last 8. Barry Hills won last year with Ouqba at 12/1.

 

Other major trends have been a top 2 finished within last 2 runs (13/13). Fillies have a poor record, since 1996 they are 0/20. Over the same period horses carrying a Group penalty are 0/18. A favourite has not won since 2001, and the non-favourites were returned from 11/2 to 20/1.

 

The trends short-list is: Red Jazz, Meezan, Field Of Dream & Rodrigo De Torres.

 

The pace looks reasonable with front runners Shakespearean and Rainfall drawn central, and plenty who like to press the pace all over the draw.

 

The King Charles II Stakes has been a good guide and three of the short-listed above filled the frame in May - although the late rain softened ground had a bearing on placings. Red Jazz is a course winner and likely to go well on the ground.

 

Meanwhile Meezaan was far from disgraced at Longchamp latest behind Lope De Vega in the Poule des Poulains (Group 1) beaten less than 5 lengths and the drop to 7fl looks ideal.

 

Market report: The Windsor Forest Stakes. Has only been run since 2004. In that time the Stout & Fanshawe yards have taken 2 apiece, plus 1 each for messrs De Royer-Dupre & Gosden. Winners have returned 11/8 to 14/1, with 2 successful favourites.

 

The Stout and Fanshawe teams are double-handed, plus leading contenders from Hannon, S Bin Suroor and a French raider in an ultra-competitive contest. Proven on the course are: Alsace Lorraine, Spacious & Strawberrydaiquiri although that has been no barrier to past winners.

 

Sahpresa has been off for 206 days and carries a G1 penalty, but ran very well winning on reappearance last year and is a serious player on the merit of form over Ghanaati, Spacious and Strawberrydaiquiri in the Sun Chariot Stakes last October. She likes fast ground.

 

However on weight-adjusted ratings there is very little indeed between any of: Strawberrydaiquiri, Spacious, Antara, Sahpresa and Shamwari Lodge on the pick of their last 3 outings and from a betting perspective looks a thoroughly imponderable affair.

 

Market report: Prince Of Wales’s Stakes. Since this race was upgraded to Group 1 status in 2001, all 9 winners have had Group 1 winning form.

 

Setting aside German G1 form, the short-list produced is: Cavalryman, Presvis, Twice Over & Shalanaya. The last 4 winners were Duke Of Marmalade, Manduro, Ouija Board & Azamour, and before them in recent times the Godolphin pair of Fantastic Light and Dubai Millennium, so we’re looking for a dash of class. As Group 1 fields go there’s nothing with obvious in-form star quality, so perhaps this is the exception and we’re looking for a rising star.

 

Mawatheeq might fit that bill with a race or two under his belt, but for now the prime suspect is Byword who was a fast closing 1/2 length 2nd to Goldikova latest in the Prix D’Ispahan G1 when Goldikova, in receipt of 3lbs, broke the Longchamp 9fl course record. Byword looks tailor-made for the step up to 10fl and races handily, ideal around here.

 

Then there is Andre Fabre’s record at Ascot; SR 28.6%, the best of any trainer over the last 5 years, and one of only 3 with a SR over 20% - the others being Marcus Tregoning and Jim Bolger - and Byword looks a Group 1 horse in the making.

 

The other to note is C&D winner Glass Harmonium who did not give his running last time, hitting his head on exiting the stalls. Before that race he had been working very impressively at Newmarket and was absolutely expected to win en route to Ascot. Without mishap he is liable to be an awful lot better today and in Sir Michael there is no finer handler of an older horse.

 

Draw, pace & Trends report: The Royal Hunt Cup. A typical huge entry and very much the sort of race where trends profiling can prove useful.

 

The key trends are: won in last 6 starts (19/20), not top 4 in weights (1/85) (or more than 9-5), aged 4 or 5 (18/20), priced 25/1 or less (33/1+ are 1/272 qualifiers), have not run in the last 15 days (3/180 qualifiers), are not running with a penalty (1/62), did not run at the Derby meeting (1/75).

 

As regards draw, winners tend to either be drawn high or low - 14 of the last 20 winners were either drawn top 5 or lowest 6 stalls.

 

Yesterday the smaller field sprints all came stands side, even though the last stick readings we had suggested the far side was quicker - by Wednesday it would be unwise to assume one side is quicker than the other, unless we have updated readings.

 

In terms of pace, Raceform suggests horses that often like to lead are drawn: 13, 16, & 32. With those drawn 2, 6, 7, 15, 17, 19, 23, 25, 29 & 33 types who press the leaders. The bulk of the pace seems to be middle to high.

 

The trends short-list, with low drawn horses deleted: Tryst & St Moritz (drawn high), Acrostic & Invisible man (drawn mid-high), Stoic (drawn centre). From outside the trends progressive C&D winner Fareer with 9-7 must also be considered (drawn centre), especially on fast ground & if you want to cover all sides of the draw Dandy Boy looks the pick of the low side.

 

Pace & trends report: The Queen Mary Stakes. Firstly concentrate on fillies who have won over 5fl (17/20), and won LTO (16/20). Exclude those who have never won and horses priced above 25/1 (1/132 qualifiers) and horses foaled in April or later (2/89 qualifiers).

 

In terms of pace, Raceform notes stalls 3, 6, 9, 13, 15 & 17 have all been seen lead, with horses all over the draw who have pressed the lead. Few hold up types evident, the pace looks hot.

 

Maqaasid by Green Desert picked up very nicely on debut after a slow start, showing a smart turn of foot and looking an exciting prospect. She is working well at home and open to considerable improvement. Meow is a Storm Cat Filly out of a Cheveley Park winner who shaped with any amount of promise on debut at Tipperary (clear by halfway).

 

Of those with less form in the book, Pricewise makes a good case for Swiss Dream who is bred to be very good and is out of a fast mare. She improved markedly for her first run and in breaking her maiden was not asked a serious question and value for further. The booking of Ryan Moore looks eye-catching.

 

Market report: The Sandringham Handicap. We don’t have many recorded trends for this race. The market generally gets it broadly right and hasn’t missed anything big lately - the last 10 winners were returned from 9/2 to 16/1, with one favourite and one co-favourite. Bar John Oxx in 2005, Newmarket yards are 9/10. Michael Bell and Ed Dunlop both won twice in the last 10.

 

At the weights Za Za Zoom is interesting but the yard seem more in hope than expectation given it’s her seasonal reappearance and ideally she would prefer a little give.

 

Of the remainder, most look weighted up to their best form. Two who may offer some scope are the likely favourite Safina, 4th in the Nell Gwyn and who looks well suited to a step up to Listed company over a mile, and Pollenator who’s best rating came on fast ground at Donny (another re-laid venue) over a mile, and is returning to her optimum trip.

 

 

 

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bungle

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Was always going to get on it after watching it romp home last time (curragh i think?) so glad i banged a £20 down. Few quid to play with now.....

 

Yeh, it was at the Curragh - very good performance. I would have backed it, but couldn't turn down the 8/1 e/w on D1ck Turpin which seemed guaranteed to come in (and did).

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chrisobee

chrisobee

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Was always going to get on it after watching it romp home last time (curragh i think?) so glad i banged a £20 down. Few quid to play with now.....

 

Indeed, it was the Irish 2000 Guineas as I mentioned in my analysis. Though I fancied D1ck Turpin at the price I couldn't get away from Canford Cliffs especially as the word was he was going great guns at home ( "gossip" right for once !) so I ended up backing both, should have done the forecast !

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chrisobee

chrisobee

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Ok, my fancies for Day 2. Nothing ultra strong but here goes :

 

2.30 Red Jazz ew@15/2 Shakesperean small saver @4/1: Barry Hills won the Jersey Stakes 12 months ago with Ouqba and has claims of doing so again with his representative RED JAZZ, who was a good second to Field Of Dream in the King Charles II Stakes at Newmarket last month, and he can go one better today, making the most of the weight that he receives from Free Judgement and Shakespearean though I have had a small saver on the latter who looks sure to go well under Frankie Dettori.

3.05 Strawberrydaiquiri @ 4/1 : Progressive grey filly needs to improve to take the spoils in the Group 2 Windsor Forest Stakes but the word from Sir Michael Stoute’s Freemason Lodge yard is that Strawberrydaiquiri is champion jockey Ryan Moore’s best bet of the week!

3.50 Twice Over @11/2 : In truth not a race I can really find anything strong. Byword might well be tough to beat but Twice Over finished 4th in this race last year and might well improve on that. Really one for the ATR tipping challenge!

4.25 Mull of Killough ew @ 16/1/ Lovelace ew @25/1: No way, no how do I expect to find the winner of this race but unfortunately for Mull of Killough and Lovelace my pin picked them out. That said the track should suit Mull of Killough and the Spearing stable are at least finding some form. Pleased to see Hugh Taylor is using the same pin and has gone for Lovelace also but at least the 25's are still available at Ladbrokes and Bet 365. Ballarce Nov is another who is not without a chance at 25/1 and just for good measure I'll throw in Riggins at 14/1 who is a talented horse though not sure the trip will suit.

5.00 Meow @9/2/Swiss Dreams ew @10/1 : Meow might give the Irish something to shout about. Showed promise on debut before winning last time out albeit in a very poor race. However, may well still be progressive and likely to go well. David Elsworth has produced a few surprise winners over the years and lo and behold runs Swiss Dream here. Significant reports of a special juvenille were forthcoming about the selection long before the season began and any losses ( due mainly to a bad draw at Windsor ) were more than repaid at the 2nd time of asking. Was some ridiculous price on the exchanges overnight ( 36/1 I think) but 10/1 still looks a fair price.

5.35 Sweet Sonnet ew@14/1 : Having finished 3rd last time out on her reappearance this Godolphin filly may well go close in the very capable hands of Frankie.

 

Good luck all !

 

Chris

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frankie

frankie

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Day 3 and this looks the hardest yet....so keeping stakes nice and small.

 

2.30 Zebedee hasnt looked the most straightforward of rides, but for Hannon to saddle just one in this race when he could surely have had a few must be a sign in itself, he won on his debut as expected then won an easy race over this course and distance last time, lets hope he continues his unbeaten run.

 

3.05 Pipette ran a cracker behind eventual Oaks winner Snow Fairy last time and in a line through that horse he has the beating of 4 of todays opponents, hopefully the tongue tie and extra two furlongs will see her improve further still.

 

3.50 An absolute corker of a race, Manifest has been talked about as a possible star, his last run looked truelly impressive, one horse that has impressed in the past is Ask, he had a terrific season last year and more importantly he has won on his last 3 seasonal debuts, so it's Ask for me, with a small bet on Rite of Passage, who is an unknown quantity, winning both his starts, the second in superb fashion.

 

4.25 An impossible looking race to figure out, so two against the field, with a weather related theme are Black Snowflake and Cumulus Nimbus

 

5.00 Afsare will be well fancied to take this after his thrashing of Wigmore Hall last time out, but I really like Quadrille there was alot to like about his last win and he seems to be improving with each run, hopefully the queen will be smiling by 5.05

 

5.35 Dandino has done me a treat or two this year so I am not about to desert him, he comes from a less fashionable yard but they must love him after he won last time making it a hat-trick of wins, he overcame trouble to win and hopefully the extra two furlongs will not inconvenience him.

 

Right, I hope day 3 is better than day 2 (except for ChrisO who managed to do OK) , good luck all.

 

Frankie

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notnowcato

notnowcato

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I was told by my brother (works at the course) that for the big fields on the straight course you may as well pick the nearest prominent racer to the far rail and you would be in with a chance.

 

ChrisO's post on the going stick told us this on Tuesday. Ascot watered last night, I suspect the far side may have got more than the stand side. We shall see.

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