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Make Your Predictions Here

dune

By dune,
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buctootim

buctootim

Posted
Posted

On that BBC site if you set it so that the Tories, Labour and LDs all get 33.3% of the vote it comes out as:

Conservatives 208 seats; Labour 317; Liberals 101

 

Either thats a carp predictor, or we have a carp voting system - probably both.

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Johnny Bognor

Johnny Bognor

Posted
Posted
Share of the Vote

 

Conservative - 9%

Labour - 40%

Liberal - 45%

 

Seats

 

Conservative - 1

Labour - 338

Liberal - 287

 

I wish!

 

Unfortunately i think the Tories will get a very small majority, i really hope i'm wrong though

 

 

I would have thought you would have gone for:

 

Share of the vote

The UK Communist Party - 100%

Others - 0% (well there are no others)

 

Seats

The UK Communist Party - all of them

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badgerx16

badgerx16

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Not sure about the BBC predictor, as it assumes an even spread across the country. I reckon it will turn out with the Cons at about 300 seats ( @ 38% of the vote), Labour around the 250 mark ( 28-29% ), and LD somewhere around 70 seats ( 26-27% ). The unpredictable bit is in Wales and Sotland where the isolationists are peddling their self-interest and may therefore affect the LD & Labour totals, ( the Cons have bu66er all chance in the peripheral territories ).

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IamLeGod

IamLeGod

Posted
Posted
On that BBC site if you set it so that the Tories, Labour and LDs all get 33.3% of the vote it comes out as:

Conservatives 208 seats; Labour 317; Liberals 101

 

Either thats a carp predictor, or we have a carp voting system - probably both.

 

Yeah it isnt great. But as has been said on other threads, each comes with their own respective draw backs.

 

This system (more often than not) provides a workable majority govt. It also makes it very hard for extreme parties to get into power (for better or worse) - which in some systems (ie PR) can gain over-representation.

 

swings and roundabouts and all that. No system is flawless

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IamLeGod

IamLeGod

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Oh but yes. I have a feeling we will be returned a small Tory majority, with them achieving probably just over 300 seats.

 

I suspect that this will force Labour to take a long hard look at themselves, and have a major resort - Gordon will not survive, although admittedly he said he would 'take responsibility', I feel he may be able to hear the knives being sharpened already.

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TopGun

TopGun

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Posted
I've gone for

 

Tories 36% 271 seats

Labour 30% 272 seats

Liberal 27.2% 79 seats

Others 5.8% 28 seats

 

I think the seats calculator is a little skewed, I think the Tories will win more seats than Labour.

 

I think that's about right.

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OldNick

OldNick

Posted
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That sounds good, much fairer :-)
I dont think Brits living abroad should be allowed to vote. Working short term ok, but if they are likely to be out of the country for more than 10 months then no vote.

Im sure there is good reason why they should, but I cant think of any (armed forces an exception of course)

I would expect that would help Labour more than others BTW, the Communist party would be finished though Lol

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Fuengirola Saint

Fuengirola Saint

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I dont think Brits living abroad should be allowed to vote. Working short term ok, but if they are likely to be out of the country for more than 10 months then no vote.

Im sure there is good reason why they should, but I cant think of any (armed forces an exception of course)

I would expect that would help Labour more than others BTW, the Communist party would be finished though Lol

 

I don't vote and don't think people who live abroad should have the right to vote either so stick that in your pipe and smoke it :-)

That would help Labour for sure because over all the expats are whining Tories bleating about immigrants, thats why i moved from Fuengirola to Malaga to get away from em

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OldNick

OldNick

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Posted
I don't vote and don't think people who live abroad should have the right to vote either so stick that in your pipe and smoke it :-)

That would help Labour for sure because over all the expats are whining Tories bleating about immigrants, thats why i moved from Fuengirola to Malaga to get away from em

Fuengirola, the Bonanza bar. Is that still there od you know? ps could you now change your name to Malaga Saint , as its misleading Lol

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OldNick

OldNick

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Posted
Yeah still there,but isn't it in Benalmadena? I will change my name once my fiver has run out
yep you are right.

You might be Madrid Saint or Torremolinos saint by then. Keep it as it is, I like to recognise the grumpy lefties when they post.

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1976_Child

1976_Child

Posted
Posted

Conservatives get most seats, but not a majority (or at best only a majority of 3 or 4). Cameron gets keys to Number 10 but with a minority government.

 

Labour squeaks into second place, Brown is disowned on television during the post-election coverage over Thursday night. Brown clings to the door frame of Number 10 while security guards pry him out of downing street.

 

The Labour party implodes into a bitter civil war which lasts until the autumn party conference and are too busy to try to suck up to Clegg.

 

Liberals know that if they dig their heals in and veto any Tory legislation the public will turn against them so they grudgingly go along with most legislation, especially on the economy and budget cuts. However Cameron has to tread on egg-shells in case he angers Clegg so no real progress is made.

 

This time next year we all get bored rigid by yet another general election, but this time Cameron gets a solid majority.

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OldNick

OldNick

Posted
Posted
Conservatives get most seats, but not a majority (or at best only a majority of 3 or 4). Cameron gets keys to Number 10 but with a minority government.

 

Labour squeaks into second place, Brown is disowned on television during the post-election coverage over Thursday night. Brown clings to the door frame of Number 10 while security guards pry him out of downing street.

 

The Labour party implodes into a bitter civil war which lasts until the autumn party conference and are too busy to try to suck up to Clegg.

 

Liberals know that if they dig their heals in and veto any Tory legislation the public will turn against them so they grudgingly go along with most legislation, especially on the economy and budget cuts. However Cameron has to tread on egg-shells in case he angers Clegg so no real progress is made.

 

This time next year we all get bored rigid by yet another general election, but this time Cameron gets a solid majority.

I can see the logic, but modern Britain does not have the stomach for the pain. So the minority Tories get in with Libs tame support. The pain of cuts and preparing the economy for a future is too much for the electorate and a Labour governemnt comes in as the coalition collapses.

It is not an election you really want to win. The governor of the BOE has ot it right, the pain and medicine needed is so severe the electorate will not forgive.

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SuperMikey

SuperMikey

Posted
Posted

Conservative - 36% (291 seats)

Labour - 27% (244 seats)

Liberal Democrats - 28% (86 seats)

Other - 8.2% (29 seats)

 

Labour/Lib Dem coalition or Conservative/SNP/Plaid Cymru coalition, and another general election before the end of the year.

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dune

dune

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Conservative 42.5% - 329 seats

Labour 33% - 255 seats

Lib Dems 20.2% - 40 seats

 

I will love it if the wishy washy Liberals end up with less seats than they already have. 40 seats a tad low, but I can see them losing 1 or gaining 10 at best.

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scotty

scotty

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Posted
I don't vote and don't think people who live abroad should have the right to vote either so stick that in your pipe and smoke it :-)

That would help Labour for sure because over all the expats are whining Tories bleating about immigrants, thats why i moved from Fuengirola to Malaga to get away from em

 

Thats where my brother in law and his wife live, they moan about nothing else. And hes over here at the moment being treated on the nhs for a heart problem and bleating on about how i should be voting lib dem, what a tw*t

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dune

dune

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i think a tory win..but by no more than 5 seats..

 

OR, the torys Just short enough to form a minority government (with a small pact with a party) added with Sinn Fein, who wont take their seats in parliament will favour this

 

When you say "a Tory win by 5 seats" do you mean 5 seats more than Labour or 330 seats?

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dune

dune

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no more than 330 seats...I know the polls dont suggest this but that is what I reckon..OR, the tory minority government in the hung parliament

 

I've update tonights polls to give a poll of polls:

 

http://www.saintsweb.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?t=22267

 

On a uniform swing it'd give the Tories 283 seats but they'll get more than that based on the polls of the marginals where they've achived a 7% swing. It's going to be very close even without the 8 seats from Ulster that they've got to fall back on.

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dune

dune

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I've just put my money where my mouth is and the best bet (price in relation to chance) I can see on SkyBet is on the Liberals achieving under 80.5 seats @11/10. Had £10 on this so fingers crossed.

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Hatch

Hatch

Posted
Posted

Conservative votes .......... 10,135,228............. 36.1% ............... +3.9

Labour votes ................8,194,900 .......... 29.2% ................. -6.3

Liberal Democrat votes ...... 6,421,841............ 22.9% .......... +1.0

 

 

so far....

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dune

dune

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Go me for being the only person that rightly predicted the Liberals would do rubbish.:)

 

I'm pretty unhappy the Tories didn't do enough, but knowing that the Liberals did a lot lot worse brings some solace.

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