Poll prediction (& electoral reform)

[Joensuu]

Taking a look at today's UKPR polling average and then running that against Electoral Calculus gives the following predicted results. In theory (but not in reality) this is how the vote might be cast if the election were today:

 

 

Now, obviously this scenario would be the one Dune suggested in his 'Why won't the liberals' thread. However, I am more interested in how biased our FPTP system is when a party can come a close second in votes cast, but a distant third in the number of MPs elected...

 

In fact our FPTP system is so biased that even if the votes cast were Con: 27%, Lab:27%, Lib 37% the liberals would still not have the largest number of MPs!

 

If one party were to receive a massive majority of the votes, but another get more MPs would electoral reform be demanded by the country?

[solentstars]

Taking a look at today's UKPR polling average and then running that against Electoral Calculus gives the following predicted results. In theory (but not in reality) this is how the vote might be cast if the election were today:

 

 

Now, obviously this scenario would be the one Dune suggested in his 'Why won't the liberals' thread. However, I am more interested in how biased our FPTP system is when a party can come a close second in votes cast, but a distant third in the number of MPs elected...

 

In fact our FPTP system is so biased that even if the votes cast were Con: 27%, Lab:27%, Lib 37% the liberals would still not have the largest number of MPs!

 

If one party were to receive a massive majority of the votes, but another get more MPs would electoral reform be demanded by the country?

 

just shows how rubbish our voting system is when a party with 36% to 38 % can have a massive majority even when 62 % to 64 % have voted against them,it would not happen in any other walk of life.

[sperm_john]

labour will make a few shock gains they always do

[Clapham Saint]

There's also the real posibility that the party that comes 3rd in terms of votes cast will end up with the largest number of seats and its leader as PM.

 

I'm not an expert on the voting system / reform but this seems crazy.

[badgerx16]

The extreme end of FPTP :

 

if in half the seats the result is Cons 51% Lib-Dem 49%, and in the other half it is Lab 51% Lib-Dem 49%, then nationally Cons & Lab each have 25.5% of the votes and 50% of seats; Lib-Dem have 49% of the vote and 0 seats.

[Thedelldays]

someone has to lead the country...without leadership then we go nowhere

whoever gets most votes, wins the election...should be as simple as that

[Lord Duckhunter]

Even in American Presidental elections the person who gains the popular vote does not necessarily get elected.

 

Electrol reform is needed in this Country, but it's a root and branch reform that's needed not just the voting system. If we have a devolved Scottish Parliament, then we need an English one, with the same devolved areas. We need reform of the House of Lords, it's wrong that Lords can be appointed to Govt, without being elected by anyone.Members of the cabinet should be elected members of Parliament and we should have fixed term Parliaments.

[buctootim]

someone has to lead the country...without leadership then we go nowhere

whoever gets most votes, wins the election...should be as simple as that

 

Nah. Parliament is supposed to represent the views of the people, not 30% of them - otherwise its not democracy - its dictatorship by the minority. All parties should have a number of MPs roughly equivalent to the number of votes they get.